Download or read book The Declining Probability of War Thesis written by James L. Richardson and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Lewis Fry Richardson His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences written by Nils Petter Gleditsch and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-12-10 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access book. Lewis F Richardson (1981-1953), a physicist by training, was a pioneer in meteorology and peace research and remains a towering presence in both fields. This edited volume reviews his work and assesses its influence in the social sciences, notably his work on arms races and their consequences, mathematical models, the size distribution of wars, and geographical features of conflict. It contains brief bibliographies of his main publications and of articles and books written about Richardson and his work and discusses his continuing influence in peace research and international relations as well as his attitude to the ethical responsibilities of a scientist. It will be of interest to a wide range of scholars. This book includes 11 chapters written by Nils Petter Gleditsch, Dina A Zinnes, Ron Smith, Paul F Diehl, Kelly Kadera, Mark Crescenzi, Michael D Ward, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Nils B Weidmann, Jürgen Scheffran, Niall MacKay, Aaron Clauset, Michael Spagat and Stijn van Weezel. Lewis F Richardson occupied an important position in two academic fields as different as meteorology and peace research, with academic prizes awarded in both disciplines. In peace research, he pioneered the use of mathematical models and the meticulous compilation of databases for empirical research. As a quaker and pacifist, he refused to work in preparations for war, paid a heavy prize in terms of his career, and (at least in the social sciences) was fully recognized as a pioneering scholar only posthumously with the publication of two major books. Lewis Fry Richardson is one of the 20th century’s greatest but least appreciated thinkers—a creative physicist, psychologist, meteorologist, applied mathematician, historian, pacifist, statistician, and witty stylist. If you’ve heard of weather prediction, chaos, fractals, cliometrics, peace science, big data, thick tails, or black swans, then you have benefited from Richardson’s prescience in bringing unruly phenomena into the ambit of scientific understanding. Richardson’s ideas continue to be relevant today, and this collection is a superb retrospective on this brilliant and lovable man. Steven Pinker, Johnstone Professor, Harvard University, and the author of The Better Angels of Our Nature and Enlightenment Now
Download or read book On War written by Carl von Clausewitz and published by . This book was released on 1908 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Waning of Major War written by Raimo Vayrynen and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-10-31 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a systematic effort by leading international scholars to map the trends in major-power warfare and explore whether it is waxing or waning. The main point of departure is that major-power war as a historical institution is in decline. This does not mean, though, that wars between states are in general disappearing. While there is some convergence in the conclusions by individual authors, they are by no means unanimous about the trend. The articles explore different causes and correlates of the declining trend in major-power warfare, including the impact of the international structure, nuclear weapons, international law, multilateral institutions, sovereignty and value changes.
Download or read book Parameters written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Decline Effect written by Dean Brooks and published by FriesenPress. This book was released on with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.
Download or read book The Universal Republic written by Mathias Koenig-Archibugi and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024-07-02 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can humanity achieve collective self-government in a highly interdependent world? Catastrophic climate change, biodiversity loss, pandemics, war and displacement, the dangers of nuclear weapons and new technologies, and persistent poverty and inequality are among the global challenges that expose the weaknesses of existing international institutions as well as the profound disparities of power and vulnerability that exist among the world's people. The Universal Republic: A Realistic Utopia? examines whether a democratic world state is a feasible and desirable solution to the problem of establishing effective and just governance on the planet we share. While this question has haunted thinkers and doers for centuries, this book opens up novel perspectives by putting the powerful methods and rich data of contemporary social science into the service of a systematic analysis of several key dimensions of the broader theme. The first part of the book shows why a democratic world state -a universal republic- is possible: why it can be achieved, and how it can endure without generating a frightful global despotism. The second part of the book shows why the universal republic is desirable, by exploring how it can help bring under our collective control the persistent sources of coercion, harm, and other processes that affect us deeply across national borders. By combining insights from political philosophy and empirical political science, this work sheds new light on a crucial question of our time: how to bring about a more democratic world.
Download or read book What Do We Know about War written by John A. Vasquez and published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. This book was released on 2012-03-16 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What Do We Know about War? reviews the research on causes of war and the conditions of peace over the past forty-five years. Leading scholars explore the critical roles of territorial disputes, alliances, arms races, rivalry, and nuclear weapons in bringing about war as well as the factors promoting peace, including democracy, norms, stable borders, and capitalist economies. Considering what has been learned about the causes of war and the conditions of peace in the ten years since the publication of the first edition, this invaluable text offers an accessible and up-to-date overview of current knowledge and an agenda for future research. Contributions by: Brett V. Benson, Paul F. Diehl, Colin Flint, Daniel S. Geller, Douglas M. Gibler, Gary Goertz, Paul R. Hensel, Choong-Nam Kang, Jack S. Levy, Zeev Maoz, Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, Michael Mousseau, Karen Rasler, Susan G. Sample, William R. Thompson, Brandon Valeriano, John A. Vasquez, and Peter Wallensteen.
Download or read book Contending Liberalisms in World Politics written by James L. Richardson and published by Lynne Rienner Publishers. This book was released on 2001 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "After introducing the theme of contending liberalisms, Richardson traces the emergence over time of a distinctive liberal view of international relations and reviews the present state of liberal IR theory. He then turns to neoliberal ideology, examining it in detail - particularly in the context of globalization - and investigating the powerful forces that support and sustain it.
Download or read book Nations at War written by Daniel S. Geller and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-02-13 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nations at War provides an explanation of war in international politics grounded on data-based, empirical research. The book classifies and synthesizes the research findings of over 500 quantitative analyses of war at the analytic level of the state, dyad, region, and international system. Because wars follow from political decisions, two basic decision-making models - the rational and the non-rational - are examined in relation to the explanatory framework of the volume. In addition, case analyses of two wars - the Iran/Iraq War (1980), and World War I (1914) - are provided as demonstrations of scientifically-based explanations of historical events. The primary structural factors responsible for the onset and seriousness of war are identified and the explanations are developed according to the scientific model of 'covering laws'. The conclusion presents a discussion of the potential for probabilistic conditional predictions of conflict within the context of war and peace studies.
Download or read book An Essay on the Causes of the Decline of the Foreign Trade written by Sir Matthew Decker and published by . This book was released on 1750 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Essay on the Cause of the Decline of the Foreign Trade written by Sir Matthew Decker and published by . This book was released on 1750 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Realism written by Benjamin Frankel and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-04-03 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Realism has been the subject of critical scrutiny for some time and this examination aims to identify and define its strengths and shortcomings, making a contribution to the study of international relations.
Download or read book War in Human Civilization written by Azar Gat and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2008 with total page 839 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do people go to war? Is it rooted in human nature or is it a late cultural invention? And what of war today: is it a declining phenomenon or simply changing its shape? This book sets out to find definitive answers to these questions in an attempt to unravel the riddle of war throughout human history.
Download or read book In the Shadow of Power written by Robert Powell and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-16 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robert Powell argues persuasively and elegantly for the usefulness of formal models in studying international conflict and for the necessity of greater dialogue between modeling and empirical analysis. Powell makes it clear that many widely made arguments about the way states act under threat do not hold when subjected to the rigors of modeling. In doing so, he provides a more secure foundation for the future of international relations theory. Powell argues that, in the Hobbesian environment in which states exist, a state can respond to a threat in at least three ways: (1) it can reallocate resources already under its control; (2) it can try to defuse the threat through bargaining and compromise; (3) it can try to draw on the resources of other states by allying with them. Powell carefully outlines these three responses and uses a series of game theoretic models to examine each of them, showing that the models make the analysis of these responses more precise than would otherwise be possible. The advantages of the modeling-oriented approach, Powell contends, have been evident in the number of new insights they have made possible in international relations theory. Some argue that these advances could have originated in ordinary-language models, but as Powell notes, they did not in practice do so. The book focuses on the insights and intuitions that emerge during modeling, rather than on technical analysis, making it accessible to readers with only a general background in international relations theory.
Download or read book The Origins of Major War written by Dale C. Copeland and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2013-02-15 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most important questions of human existence is what drives nations to war—especially massive, system-threatening war. Much military history focuses on the who, when, and where of war. In this riveting book, Dale C. Copeland brings attention to bear on why governments make decisions that lead to, sustain, and intensify conflicts.Copeland presents detailed historical narratives of several twentieth-century cases, including World War I, World War II, and the Cold War. He highlights instigating factors that transcend individual personalities, styles of government, geography, and historical context to reveal remarkable consistency across several major wars usually considered dissimilar. The result is a series of challenges to established interpretive positions and provocative new readings of the causes of conflict.Classical realists and neorealists claim that dominant powers initiate war. Hegemonic stability realists believe that wars are most often started by rising states. Copeland offers an approach stronger in explanatory power and predictive capacity than these three brands of realism: he examines not only the power resources but the shifting power differentials of states. He specifies more precisely the conditions under which state decline leads to conflict, drawing empirical support from the critical cases of the twentieth century as well as major wars spanning from ancient Greece to the Napoleonic Wars.
Download or read book Only the Dead written by Bear F. Braumoeller and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Only the Dead, Bear Braumoeller assesses the claim that armed conflict is in decline and finds it wanting. In the course of his assessment, he also develops a powerful explanation for trends in warfare over time. His central finding is that, although there has been a drop in the rate of international conflict following the end of the Cold War, that drop followed nearly two centuries of steady increases in the rate of conflict initiation.
