Download or read book On Combining Experts Assessments written by Heleno Bolfarine and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Experts in Uncertainty written by Roger M. Cooke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1991-10-24 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
Download or read book Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks written by Igor Linkov and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing environmental contamination requires decision makers to weigh eXlstmg risks against the potential effects of implementing environmental policies - considering both the benefits and disruptions that may result from different actions. The NATO Advanced Research Workshop in Lisbon was an important step in the development and application of cost efficient methods of risk assessment especiaIly within the constraints of a budget. The goal of the workshop was to evaluate the potential for risk assessment to serve as a unified and unifying technique in addressing a wide range of environmental problems. Papers presented in this book discuss issues ranging from specific and local studies (specific site, ecosystem, pollutant) to global decision and management frameworks (watersheds, regions, integration of multiple poIlutants and stressors); they develop a range of approaches starting from specific methods to widely applied public policies (Figure 1). The papers show that the use of risk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentaIly sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions to our environmental chaIlenges. The organization of the Proceedings reflects sessions and discussions during the workshop. The papers in the introductory Chapter summarize the positions of Drs. Glenn Suter (EPA) and Jim Wilson (Resources for the Future) regarding whether the use of often-expensive risk assessments in developing countries can be justified, given evolving regulatory institutions and limited resources.
Download or read book A Literature Review on the Use of Expert opinion in Prbabilistric Risk Analysis written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Download or read book Systems Reliability Assessment written by A.G. Colombo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents models and methods for systems reliability assessment, human reliability analysis and uncertainty management. It includes fourteen contributions which are grouped into three sections. Section 1 deals with basic reliability methods and applications. The papers by Saiz de Bustamante and Perlado introduce the stochastic processes and the Monte Carlo method, respectively. Sanz Fermandez de Cordoba and Gonzales discuss important practical implications of the use of reliability methods. The former refers to the aerospace industry. The latter considers nuclear power plants. Session 2 presents some advances in systems reliability techniques. The paper by Contini and Poucet illustrates the mathematical analysis of fault trees and event trees. It includes a discussion on the logical analysis of non-coherent fault trees and considerations on the major measures of criticality and importance of a component. The paper by Babbio is devoted to Petri nets. First, the formalism of this relatively new technique is given. Then, stochastic Petri nets are introduced as a tool to describe the behaviour of systems in time. Finally, by some fully developed examples, it is shown how this approach can be used to represent and evaluate complex stochastic systems. Limnios introduces the notion of failure delay systems and gives the lifetime structure for the evaluation of reliability measures. A reservoir is studied as an example of a failure delay system.
Download or read book Publications Combined USAIS PAMPHLET 350 6 Expert Infantryman Badge EIB Test 2019 2018 2016 2013 2010 2007 Editions written by U.S. Army and published by Jeffrey Frank Jones. This book was released on with total page 706 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over 700 total pages ... CONTENTS: USAIS PAMPHLET 350-6 Expert Infantryman Badge 2 - January 2019 EIB Supplies - 13 July 2018 USAIS 350-6 Summary of Change As of 13 July 2018 EIB Requirements As Of 17 May 2018 USAIS PAMPHLET 350-6 Expert Infantryman Badge - 11 May 2018 USAIS PAMPHLET 350-6 Expert Infantryman Badge - 16 August 2016 USAIS PAMPHLET 350-6 Expert Infantryman Badge - 1 October 2013 USAIS PAM 350-6 EIB EXPERT INFANTRYMAN BADGE (EIB) TEST - 1 March 2010 & USAIC Pamphlet 350-6 Training the Expert Infantryman Badge (EIB) Test - 1 February 2007 Preface The USAIS Pamphlet 350-6 establishes and standardizes policies, procedures, and standards for testing and awarding the Expert Infantryman Badge (EIB). The EIB test measures a Soldier’s physical fitness and ability to perform to standards of excellence in a broad spectrum of critical Infantry skills. Detailed instructions and forms contained in this pamphlet ensure Army-wide uniformity. Expert Infantryman Badge training and testing is intended to be rigorous, mission-focused and conducted under realistic conditions. Flexibility is provided to allow units to structure the Weapons, Medical, and Patrol lanes from an approved task list in order to test the Infantryman's expertise in the attention to detail of skill level one tasks selected, for these reasons, the EIB is appropriate for individual Soldier task training in preparation for unit leader and collective task training. The target audience for this pamphlet is: • Infantry Soldiers currently serving in Career Management Field 11. • Special Forces Soldiers in occupational specialties 18A, 18B, 18C, 18E, 18F, and 18Z. • Infantry Soldiers and Commissioned Infantry Officers in the U.S. Army, U.S. Army Reserve (USAR), and Army National Guard (ARNG). Note: This training publication can be used for other Military Occupational Specialties as a guide for their warrior task training events; however training, testing, and awarding of the Expert Infantryman Badge is specifically for Infantry and Special Forces personnel only. This standard may not be waived.
Download or read book 10th Advances in Reliability Technology Symposium written by G.P. Libberton and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Reliability Data Collection and Use in Risk and Availability Assessment written by Viviana Colombari and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International cooperation on reliability and accident data collection and processing, exchange of experience on actual uses of data and reliability engineering techniques is a major step in realising safer and more efficient industrial systems. This book provides an updated presentation of the activities in this field on a worldwide basis.
Download or read book Environmental Modelling written by Keith Beven and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-09-03 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty in the predictions of science when applied to the environment is an issue of great current relevance in relation to the impacts of climate change, protecting against natural and man-made disasters, pollutant transport and sustainable resource management. However, it is often ignored both by scientists and decision makers, or interpreted as a conflict or disagreement between scientists. This is not necessarily the case, the scientists might well agree, but their predictions would still be uncertain and knowledge of that uncertainty might be important in decision making. Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future? introduces students, scientists and decision makers to: the different concepts and techniques of uncertainty estimation in environmental prediction the philosophical background to different concepts of uncertainty the constraint of uncertainties by the collection of observations and data assimilation in real-time forecasting techniques for decision making under uncertainty. This book will be relevant to environmental modellers, practitioners and decision makers in hydrology, hydraulics, ecology, meteorology and oceanography, geomorphology, geochemistry, soil science, pollutant transport and climate change. A companion website for the book can be found at www.uncertain-future.org.uk
Download or read book Structural Sensing Health Monitoring and Performance Evaluation written by D. Huston and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2010-09-21 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural health monitoring (SHM) uses one or more in situ sensing systems placed in or around a structure, providing real-time evaluation of its performance and ultimately preventing structural failure. Although most commonly used in civil engineering, such as in roads, bridges, and dams, SHM is now finding applications in other engineering envir
Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards written by Jonathan Rougier and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-02-21 with total page 587 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.
Download or read book Human Variability in Response to Chemical Exposures Measures Modeling and Risk Assessment written by David A. Eckerman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1998-08-25 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: and for those interested in toxic effects of chemicals on humans, Human Variability in Response to Chemical Exposures: Measures, Modeling, and Risk Assessment recognizes and addresses the increasing awareness that individual biological differences be reflected when assessing human health risks associated with exposure to chemicals. Eight original manuscripts, commissioned by the ILSI Risk Science Institute, address the evidence for variability in human response to chemicals associated with reproductive and developmental effects, effects on the nervous system and lungs, and cancer. Their reports convey both the current state of scientific understanding of response variability and the genetic basis for such observations. This book recognizes that understanding of variability in response is critical in accounting for interindividual variability in susceptibility and, hence, risk, if the regulatory community and others are expected to characterize human health risks associated with exposure to chemicals. Models for incorporating measures of response variability in the risk assessment process are critically reviewed and illustrated with published data. This authoritative work indicates that, in the case of certain chemicals and in the context of certain specific toxic effects, we have considerable ability to predictively and quantitatively characterize human variability, but, in the majority of cases, our ability to do so is limited. If we improve both quantity and quality of information available on response variability and increase our understanding of target tissue dosimetry, we should be better able to account for variability in human susceptibility to the toxic effects of chemicals.
Download or read book Discerning Experts written by Michael Oppenheimer and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2019-03-07 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discerning Experts assesses the assessments that many governments rely on to help guide environmental policy and action. Through their close look at environmental assessments involving acid rain, ozone depletion, and sea level rise, the authors explore how experts deliberate and decide on the scientific facts about problems like climate change. They also seek to understand how the scientists involved make the judgments they do, how the organization and management of assessment activities affects those judgments, and how expertise is identified and constructed. Discerning Experts uncovers factors that can generate systematic bias and error, and recommends how the process can be improved. As the first study of the internal workings of large environmental assessments, this book reveals their strengths and weaknesses, and explains what assessments can—and cannot—be expected to contribute to public policy and the common good.
Download or read book Production Availability and Reliability written by Alain Leroy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-06-19 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of the book is to provide all the elements to evaluate the performance of production availability and reliability of a system, to integrate them and to manage them in its life cycle. By the examples provided (case studies) the main target audience is that of the petroleum industries (where I spent most of my professional years). Although the greatest rigor is applied in the presentation, and justification, concepts, methods and data this book is geared towards the user.
Download or read book Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Download or read book Advanced Building Simulation written by Ali Malkawi and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-07-29 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces recent advances in building simulation and outlines its historic development. Two important topics are described: uncertainty in simulation and coupled simulations, which are both closely linked to attempts to improve control and accuracy. This is followed by coverage of wind simulations and predictions, and then by an introduction to current systems and phenomenological modelling. Written by leading experts in the field both in the US and Europe, Advanced Building Simulation is an excellent graduate-level student textbook as well as a practical guide for architects, engineers and other construction professionals.
