Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates Monetary Policy and Macroeconomy written by Fan Dora Xia and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies the relationship between the term structure of interest rates, monetary policy, and macroeconomy. The first chapter, A Parsimonious No-Arbitrage Term Structure Model that is Useful for Forecasting, offers a solution to a well-known puzzle in the term structure literature. The puzzle is that while the level, slope and curvature (or the first three principal components of yields) can quite accurately summarize the cross-section of yields at any point in time, different functions of interest rates and other macroeconomic variables appear to be helpful when the goal is to predict future interest rates. My paper proposes a parsimonious representation to capture this feature in a large dataset. In the first step, I run reduced rank regressions of one-year excess returns on a panel of 131 macroeconomic variables and initial forward rates from 1964 to 2007. I find that a single linear combination of macroeconomic variables and forward rates can predict excess returns on two- to five-year maturity bonds with R-squared up to 0.71. The forecasting factor subsumes the tent-shaped linear combination of forward rates constructed by Cochrane and Piazzesi (2003) and explains excess returns better. In the second step, I estimate a restricted Gaussian Affine Term Structure Model (GATSM) with the level, slope and curvature commonly used by most term structure models along with the forecasting factor. Restrictions are derived based on the fact that while cross-sectional information in yields is spanned by the level, slope and curvature, cross-sectional information in expected excess returns is spanned by the forecasting factor. Compared with a conventional GATSM only including the level, slope and curvature, the restricted four-factor GATSM generates plausible countercyclical term premia. The second and third chapter focus on the recent zero lower bound (ZLB) period. In the second chapter, Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound, coauthored with Cynthia Wu, we employ an approximation that makes a nonlinear shadow rate term structure model (SRTSM) extremely tractable for analysis of an economy operating near the zero lower bound for interest rates. We show that such a model offers a better description of the data compared to the widely used GATSM. Moreover, the model can be used to summarize the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy at the ZLB. Using a simple factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), we show that the shadow rate calculated by our model exhibits similar dynamic correlations with macro variables of interest in the period since 2009 as the fed funds rate did in data prior to the Great Recession. This result gives us a tool for measuring the effects of monetary policy under the ZLB, using either historical estimates based on the fed funds rate or less precisely measured estimates inferred solely from the new data for the shadow rate alone. We show that the Fed has used unconventional policy measures to successfully lower the shadow rate. Our estimates imply that the Fed's efforts to stimulate the economy since 2009 have succeeded in lowering the unemployment rate by 0.13% relative to where it would have been in the absence of these measure. The third chapter, Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies on the Term Structure of Interest Rates, offers a complete characterization of effects of unconventional monetary policies on interest rates by examining policies' impacts on the whole yield curve. I make use of the SRTSM to summarize all interest rates with factors of lower dimension so that I can capture responses of all interest rates in a parsimonious way. By investigating how policy announcements affect the three factors and then the whole forward curve accordingly, I find that during the ZLB period, forward rate with short maturities are constrained, while forward rates with long maturities still respond to policy announcements. Following each easing (tightening) policy announcement, long forward rates would decrease (increase) by 10 basis points on average.

Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During a Zero Interest Rate Period written by Mr.Jun Nagayasu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-10-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically evaluates the validity of the term structure of interest rates in a low-interest-rate environment. Applying a time-series method to high-frequency Japanese data, the term-structure model is found to be useful for economic analysis only when interest rates are high. When interest rates are low, the usefulness of the model declines, since the interest spread contains little information that can be used for predicting future economic activity. The term-structure relationship is also weakened by the Bank of Japan's use of interest rate smoothing.

Download or read book Monetary Policy the Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Macroeconomy written by Etienne Vaccaro-Grange and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Ph.D. thesis has the ambition to help better understand the role of interest rates as a monetary policy instrument driving the economy for the central bank. The first chapter of the thesis analyzes the bond term premium transmission channel of the first sovereign bonds purchase programme of the European Central Bank, focusing on the impact on aggregated Euro Area macroeconomic variables. The second chapter investigates the low growth - low inflation environment present in Japan since the 1990s, through the yield curve gap. This chapter extends the concept of (short-term) natural rate of interest to medium and long-term maturities, and shows that the different monetary policy regimes implemented by the Bank of Japan did not have an homogeneous impact on the yield curve gap and on the Japanese economy. Finally, a third chapter demonstrates that the U.S. price Phillips curve - the structural relationship between price inflation and measures of real economic activity - is not dead, as opposed to the current common thinking. This chapter shows that the slope of the price Phillips curve is not flat, once filtered from all supply shocks, and not only cost-push shocks. The chapter also finds evidence that the apparent flattening of the curve is due to the fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve has become a stricter inflation targeter.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Interest Rate Rules and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Ralf Fendel and published by Peter Lang Publishing. This book was released on 2007 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest rate rules play an important role in the empirical analysis of monetary policy as well as in modern monetary theory. Besides giving a comprehensive insight into this line of research the study incorporates the term structure of interest rates into interest rate rules. This is performed analytically as well as empirically. In doing so, state of the art techniques of modern finance for the analysis of the term structure of interest rates are introduced into the macroeconomic concept of interest rate rules. The study implies that from the theoretical perspective term structure effects are an important extension of interest rate rules. From an empirical perspective it shows that including term structure effects in interest rate reaction functions improves our understanding of the interest rate setting of the Deutsche Bundesbank and the European Central Bank.

Download or read book Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Mirko Abbritti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.

Download or read book Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Rajna Gibson and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2010 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates provides a comprehensive review of the continuous-time modeling techniques of the term structure applicable to value and hedge default-free bonds and other interest rate derivatives.

Download or read book Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Nominal Interest Rates written by Charles Evans and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Does Macroeconomics Help Us to Understand the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Carlo A. Favero and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Macro finance Approach to the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Marcelo Ferman and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis contributes to the literature that analyses the term structure of interest rates from a macroeconomic perspective. Chapter 1 studies the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the US macroeconomy and term structure. Based on estimates of a Macro-Affine model, it shows that monetary policy shocks trigger relevant movements in bond premia, which in turn feed back into the macroeconomy. This channel of monetary transmission shows up importantly in the pre-Volcker period, but becomes irrelevant later. This chapter concludes with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of shocks to expectations about future monetary policy actions. Chapter 2 proposes a regime-switching approach to explain why the U.S. nominal yield curve on average has been steeper since the mid-1980s than during the Great Inflation of the 1970s. It shows that, once the possibility of regime switches in the short-rate process is incorporated into investors' beliefs, the average slope of the yield curve generally will contain a new component called 'level risk'. Level risk estimates were found to be large and negative during the Great Inflation, but became moderate and positive afterwards. These findings are replicated in a Markov-Switching DSGE model, where the monetary policy rule shifts between an active and a passive regime with respect to inflation fluctuations. Chapter 3 develops a DSGE model in which banks use short-term deposits to provide firms with long-term credit. The demand for long-term credit arises because firms borrow in order to finance their capital stock which they only adjust at infrequent intervals. The model shows that maturity transformation in the banking sector in general attenuates the output response to a technological shock. Implications of long-term nominal contracts are also examined in a New Keynesian version of the model. In this case, maturity transformation reduces the real effects of a monetary policy shock.

Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates written by John Driffill and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines data on interest rates in the United Kingdom information on changes in policy regime and their credibility in order to discover the period from 1959-87 using quarterly data. A stochastic regime switching model used by Hamilton, based on an AR(4) model for short rates, and the corresponding model for long rates, does not adequately represent the UK data. Yields on long-term UK government debt behave consistently with the expectations model of the term structure, on a number of basic tests. Their relationship with yields on treasury bills, however, is not consistent with the theory unless an autoregressive risk premium is introduced into the holding period yield on long bonds. The only evidence of a change in the time-series behaviour of long bond yields in these data occurs at the end of 1974. There is no evidence of a policy change in 1979 or 1980. The hypothesis that these interest rates contain unit roots cannot be rejected. Therefore, tests of the expectations model devised by Campbell and Shiller to take account of unit roots in the data were undertaken, but they revealed no evidence of departures from the expectations model.

Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macoeconomic Policy written by Stephen J. Turnovsky and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Interest Rates written by Yasuo Nishiyama and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest rates are directly related to our lives. When interest rates are high, we hold less cash and more interest-bearing assets because we face a high opportunity cost of holding cash. Interest rates are directly related to the economy. When interest rates are high, there are not as many viable opportunities for firms to invest as when they are low, leading to a lower level of investment and a lower level of economic activities. Interest rates are directly related to the objectives of countries' monetary policy. This book, entitled "Interest Rates: Term Structure Models, Monetary Policy and Prediction" sheds light on selected aspects of this multifaceted role of interest rates. Topics discussed include term structure models; policy interest rates and the usefulness of interest rates as a predictor.

Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Macro Economy written by Evangelos Salachas and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we extract the factors that shape the yield curve and we relate them with macroeconomy. We examine whether the term structure can predict future economic activity by applying a range of econometric approaches both in pre- and post- crisis periods. Furthermore, we assess the strength of the yield curve forecasting power on economic activity for Eurozone. In addition, we analyze the effect of increased market risk in the term structure and economic activity whereas we evaluate the impact of monetary policy in the term structure. We find that the forecasting performance of term structure deteriorates in the post-crisis period and that credit spreads forecast better Eurozone industrial production. Also, as we find, one significant explanation for the change in predictability during pre- and post- crisis periods is due to the effect of market risk on the term structure during the post-crisis period. Finally, we argue that monetary policy determines significantly the term structure either by conventional or unconventional measures.

Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy written by Stephen J. Turnovsky and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on the term structure of interest rates. The effects of temporary versus permanent, unanticipated versus anticipated, policy disturbances and the responses of long versus short, and real versus nominal, rates are contrasted. The main results are summarized in a series of propositions. Among them, the finding that an unanticipated permanent fiscal expansion impacts more on long-term rates, may help explain their observed excessive volatility. The effects of structural changes on the relative variances are also discussed, with the effect which operates through the impact on private speculative behavior being emphasized.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Models and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Steven Strongin and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Fiscal Policy Public Debt and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Roland Demmel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The introduction of the thesis consists of four parts: first, we motivate our chosen macroeconomic setting by looking at some real world phenomena. For a better understanding of these phenomena, we argue that the mutual dynamic interactions between flScal policy and financial markets need to be closely examined in a macroeconomic framework. Second, we review different strands of the economic literature in order to show that most of the literature has so far exclusively concentrated either on fmancial market dynamics or on flScal policy issues. We conclude that a more integrated model setting is called for in order to explain the dynamic interactions observed in reality. Third, we discuss at length the economic assumptions underlying our model. This avoids multiple repetition later on. Finally, we outline the structure of the thesis and the objectives we pursue in the different chapters. 1. 1 Motivation Fiscal policy and financial market reactions are increasingly receiving world wide attention. The most recent examples are the Maastricht criteria about flScal control, the South-East Asia financial crisis and the resulting IMF policy stance, the high level of public debt in developed and developing countries and the effect on interest rates and economic growth. In contrast to the still underdeveloped theoretical literature on these dynamic links, finding empirical evidence that supports the existence of these links is not a very hard task.

Download or read book Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Surprises and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Marcello Pericoli and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: