Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to create a strong understanding of the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the research and anaylsis of two scholars who are experts in this field, this volume presents the key issues that are paramount to investors, including whether or not to use historical data as a method of equity investing, and can the equity premium reflect changes in fundamental values and cash flows of the market.

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium in 2014 written by John R. Graham and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the history of the equity risk premium from surveys of U.S. Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) conducted every quarter from June 2000 to March 2014. The risk premium is the expected 10-year S&P 500 return relative to a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. While the risk premium sharply increased during the financial crisis peaking in February 2009, the premium has decreased to a level of 3.73% which is only slightly higher than the long-term average. However, the total market return forecast is a modest 6.43%. The survey also provides measures of cross-sectional disagreement about the risk premium, skewness, and a measure of individual uncertainty. Consistent with the last four quarters of surveys, CFOs see more downside risks than upside risks. In addition, we find that dispersion of beliefs is above the long-term average as well as individual uncertainty. We also present evidence on the determinants of the long-run risk premium. Our analysis suggests the level of the risk premium closely tracks both market volatility (reflected in the VIX index) as well as credit spreads. However, the most recent data show a divergence between VIX and the risk premium.

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium A Contextual Literature Review written by Laurence B. Siegel and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2017-12-08 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research into the equity risk premium, often considered the most important number in finance, falls into three broad groupings. First, researchers have measured the margin by which equity total returns have exceeded fixed-income or cash returns over long historical periods and have projected this measure of the equity risk premium into the future. Second, the dividend discount model—or a variant of it, such as an earnings discount model—is used to estimate the future return on an equity index, and the fixed-income or cash yield is then subtracted to arrive at an equity risk premium expectation or forecast. Third, academics have used macroeconomic techniques to estimate what premium investors might rationally require for taking the risk of equities. Current thinking emphasizes the second, or dividend discount, approach and projects an equity risk premium centered on 3½% to 4%.

Download or read book A History of the Equity Risk Premium and Its Estimation written by Basil Copeland and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The estimation of the equity (or "market") risk premium has become a cottage industry, both for academics and professionals. It is recognized as a key economic or financial parameter for a variety of interests and applications, yet opinions as to its magnitude either historical or projected vary widely. But not as widely as was once the case. There has been general acceptance, a consensus if you will, that historical equity return premia overstate what was anticipated or expected and that a large component of the historical equity return premium constitutes unanticipated capital gains. This paper explores the history of this idea and examines the role this it plays (or not) in a variety of recent and current methods of estimating the equity risk premium. Using a methodology similar to Fama and French (2002) but presaged in Copeland (1982) I describe the behavior of ex post and ex ante risk premia for the period 1872 to 2013 and estimate the equity risk premium going forward for the next 10 years (2014-2023). I also discuss various issues in the estimation of the equity risk premium, such as geometric versus arithmetic mean, top down versus bottom up forecasts of the equity risk premium, and whether to use dividend yields or P/E multiples in accounting for unanticipated capital gains. I conclude that the arithmetic equity risk premium as usually calculated is significantly overstated and that the current and expected future ERP is in the range of 3-4 percent for both geometric and arithmetic means, though likely in the upper half of this range.

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by Bradford Cornell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1999-05-26 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Das Thema Risikoprämie für Aktien (Equity Risk Premium) wird hier zum ersten Mal verständlich erklärt. Die Risikoprämie für Aktien stellt einen Renditeausgleich dar für das erhöhte Risiko, das ein Anleger bei der Investition in Aktien eingeht, im Vergleich zu einer Investition in risikofreie Staatsanleihen. Die Risikoprämie ist zwar von der Theorie her einfach, jedoch in der Praxis ein sehr komplexes Phänomen. Für Finanzentscheidungen ist es von größter Bedeutung, daß man das Prinzip der Risikoprämie versteht und es anwenden kann. Cornell erläutert das Thema Schritt für Schritt sehr anschaulich und ohne terminologischen Ballast. Zunächst wird die Risikoprämie im Zusammenhang mit der Geschichte des Aktienmarktes betrachtet. Der Haussemarkt der 90er dient dabei als Fallstudie. Cornell zeigt, welche Rückschlüsse man durch die Analyse der Risikoprämie im historischen Verlauf für den Aktienmarkt ziehen kann, z.B. ob Aktienkurse steigen oder fallen oder ob sich der Aktienmarkt verändert. Vorausschauende Schätzungen der Risikoprämie werden anhand verschiedener konkurrierender Modelle analysiert, wobei die Vorzüge der jeweiligen Methode mitbewertet werden. 'Equity Risk Premium' ist das erste Buch, das dieses wichtige Prinzip der Risiko-Nutzen-Analyse erschöpfend behandelt. Es vermittelt einen tiefen Einblick und deckt alle Grundlagen ab, damit Investoren fundierte Finanzentscheidungen treffen können. Ein absolutes Muß für institutionelle Anleger, Geldmanager und Finanzvorstände, die auf eine fundierte Marktanalyse zurückgreifen müssen. (06/99)

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium in 2015 written by John R. Graham and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the history of the equity risk premium from surveys of U.S. Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) conducted every quarter from June 2000 to March 2015. The risk premium is the expected 10-year S&P 500 return relative to a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. We show that the equity risk premium has increased more than 50 basis points from the levels observed in 2014. The current 10-year risk premium is 4.51%. Similarly, measures of risk such as investor disagreement and perceptions of volatility have increased. Interestingly, the increased premium and risk are not reflected in market-based measures of risk, such as the VIX and credit spreads. We also link our survey results to measures survey-based measures of the weighted average cost of capital and investment hurdle rates. The hurdle rates are significantly higher than the cost of capital implied by the market risk premium.

Download or read book Equity Risk Premiums ERP written by Aswath Damodaran and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Equity risk premiums are a central component of every risk and return model in finance and are a key input in estimating costs of equity and capital in both corporate finance and valuation. Given their importance, it is surprising how haphazard the estimation of equity risk premiums remains in practice. We begin this paper by looking at the economic determinants of equity risk premiums, including investor risk aversion, information uncertainty and perceptions of macroeconomic risk. In the standard approach to estimating equity risk premiums, historical returns are used, with the difference in annual returns on stocks versus bonds over a long time period comprising the expected risk premium. We note the limitations of this approach, even in markets like the United States, which have long periods of historical data available, and its complete failure in emerging markets, where the historical data tends to be limited and volatile. We look at two other approaches to estimating equity risk premiums - the survey approach, where investors and managers are asked to assess the risk premium and the implied approach, where a forward-looking estimate of the premium is estimated using either current equity prices or risk premiums in non-equity markets. In the next section, we look at the relationship between the equity risk premium and risk premiums in the bond market (default spreads) and in real estate (cap rates) and how that relationship can be mined to generated expected equity risk premiums. We close the paper by examining why different approaches yield different values for the equity risk premium, and how to choose the “right” number to use in analysis. (This is the seventh update of this piece. The first update was in the midst of the financial crisis in 2008 and there have been annual updates each year from 2009 through 2013.).

Download or read book Handbook of the Equity Risk Premium written by Rajnish Mehra and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-08-11 with total page 635 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Edited by Rajnish Mehra, this volume focuses on the equity risk premium puzzle, a term coined by Mehra and Prescott in 1985 which encompasses a number of empirical regularities in the prices of capital assets that are at odds with the predictions of standard economic theory.

Download or read book The Risk Premium Factor written by Stephen D. Hassett and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-08-31 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A radical, definitive explanation of the link between loss aversion theory, the equity risk premium and stock price, and how to profit from it The Risk Premium Factor presents and proves a radical new theory that explains the stock market, offering a quantitative explanation for all the booms, busts, bubbles, and multiple expansions and contractions of the market we have experienced over the past half-century. Written by Stephen D. Hassett, a corporate development executive, author and specialist in value management, mergers and acquisitions, new venture strategy, development, and execution for high technology, SaaS, web, and mobile businesses, the book convincingly demonstrates that the equity risk premium is proportional to long-term Treasury yields, establishing a connection to loss aversion theory. Explains stock prices from 1960 through the present including the 2008/09 "market meltdown" Shows how the S&P 500 has consistently reverted to values predicted by the model Solves the equity premium puzzle by showing that it is consistent with findings on loss aversion Demonstrates that three factors drive valuation and stock price: earnings, long term growth, and interest rates Understanding the stock market is simple. By grasping the simplicity, business leaders, corporate decision makers, private equity, venture capital, professional, and individual investors will fully understand the system under which they operate, and find themselves empowered to make better decisions managing their businesses and investment portfolios.

Download or read book The Un Predictable Equity Risk Premium written by Robert J. Bianchi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The equity risk premium (ERP) remains one of the most hotly contested ideas in finance. The disagreement, in practical and theoretical terms, centres on how best to measure the risk of an investment, how to convert this risk measure into an expected return that compensates the investor for holding that risk, and its degree of predictability. This paper provides Australian evidence for the period 1900 through 2014 and forward looking estimates.

Download or read book Rethinking the Equity Risk Premium written by P. Brett Hammond and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2001, a small group of academics and practitioners met to discuss the equity risk premium (ERP). Ten years later, in 2011, a similar discussion took place, with participants writing up their thoughts for this volume. The result is a rich set of papers that practitioners may find useful in developing their own approach to the subject.

Download or read book Revisiting the Equity Risk Premium written by Laurence B. Siegel and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2023-06-06 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2001, Martin Leibowitz organized an Equity Risk Premium (ERP) Forum for CFA Institute, in which the participants discussed issues related to the ERP and made estimates for the future. This forum was repeated by Leibowitz, Brett Hammond, and Laurence Siegel in 2011, setting a precedent for a decennial forum. Siegel organized and moderated the discussion in 2021, and the proceedings from that event make up the current book. The participants in 2021 were (in alphabetical order) Robert Arnott, Clifford Asness, Mary Ida Compton, Elroy Dimson, William Goetzmann, Roger Ibbotson, Antti Ilmanen, Martin Leibowitz, Rajnish Mehra, Thomas Philips, and Jeremy Siegel. Each participant made a presentation, which was then discussed by the whole group. Finally, a roundtable discussion involving all of the participants was moderated by Laurence Siegel. Ibbotson and Dimson discussed historical returns in different countries. Ibbotson focused on the United States, while Dimson took a global industrial-country view. The history goes back almost a century (Ibbotson) or more than a century (Dimson), providing a look at how returns have evolved over a wide variety of conditions. Ibbotson also presented his method for making probabilistic forecasts of returns. Dimson, who is British, showed that “American exceptionalism” is one way to understand the results. Asness looked at the effectiveness of Robert Shiller’s CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio) valuation measure for forecasting. Valuations rose over the period he studied, and a lively discussion was had about why this may have occurred. Arnott focused on the growth rate of dividends, which has been very slow in per-share terms, and argued (with much debate from the other participants) that buybacks are only a partial substitute for dividends. Leibowitz, also looking at valuation as the lodestone of return forecasts, set forth a “growth adjustment” that brought his forecast in line with those made by others. Compton, a consultant to pension plans, discussed the challenges of communicating lower expected returns to clients. She also emphasized that expected returns “don’t always come true,” they’re just someone’s best forecast. Ilmanen broke up the expected return into its component parts: dividends, real growth, inflation, and so forth. Doing this, he said, allows one to debate the estimates for each part and ascertain how accurate each of the estimates is. Philips started by presenting a method for forecasting bond returns. He then turned to equities, for which he compared forecasts with subsequent realizations using a variety of forecast methods. Mehra discussed a number of issues related to the existence of premiums (equity risk, value, small cap, and so forth) and concluded that, although some of these are unstable, the ERP is highly stable. Jeremy Siegel advocated a “back to basics” approach using dividend and earnings yields, dividend and earnings growth rates, payout ratios, and price-to-earnings ratios. He emphasized that earnings can be calculated in a number of different way, and said that accounting practices have become more conservative over the years. Goetzmann concluded the session by reporting that one company, a water mill in France, had almost 600 years of historical return data and that an asset pricing model could be tested using those data. According to this model, the stock price is the present value of expected future dividends and is supported by the evidence. In sum, because of high valuations and low interest rates, the participants expect lower total returns in the future than in the past. A forward-looking ERP of 4% to 5% was the consensus of the group.

Download or read book USA Equity Risk Premium written by Andrew S. Pike and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium in 2016 written by John R. Graham and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the history of the equity risk premium from surveys of U.S. Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) conducted every quarter from June 2000 to June 2016. The risk premium is the expected 10-year S&P 500 return relative to a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. The average risk premium in 2016, 4.02%, is slightly higher than the average observed over the past 16 years. We also provide results on the risk premium disagreement among respondents as well as asymmetry or skewness of risk premium estimates. We also link our risk premium results to survey-based measures of the weighted average cost of capital and investment hurdle rates. The hurdle rates are significantly higher than the cost of capital implied by the market risk premium estimates.

Download or read book Rethinking the Equity Risk Premium written by P. Brett Hammond and published by . This book was released on 2011-12 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Estimating the Equity Risk Premium written by David Biery and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by Rajnish Mehra and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: