Download or read book The Effect of Asymmetries on Stock Index Return Value at Risk Estimates written by Chris Brooks and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is much evidence in the literature that the volatilities of equity returns show evidence of asymmetric responses to good and bad news. At the same time, there is evidence that the unconditional distribution of stock returns is asymmetric as well. This paper examines the effects of asymmetries of various forms on the accuracy of value at risk models. We compare the value at risk estimates derived from models which assume both a symmetric unconditional distribution of returns and a symmetric response of volatility to good and bad news, with models which explicitly allow for each class of asymmetries. We find that, between the two types of asymmetry considered, the asymmetry in the unconditional distribution is the more important feature. Use of the semi-variance, which allows for this feature, is shown to provide more stable and more reliable value at risk estimates than simple and more complex models that do not.
Download or read book Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively correlated. We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level and to examine two potential explanations of the asymmetry: leverage effects and time-varying risk premiums. Our empirical application uses the market portfolio and portfolios with different leverage constructed from Nikkei 225 stocks, extending the empirical evidence on asymmetry to Japanese stocks. Although volatility asymmetry is present and significant at the market and the portfolio levels, its source differs across portfolios. We find that it is important to include leverage ratios in the volatility dynamics but that their economic effects are mostly dwarfed by the volatility feedback mechanism. Volatility feedback is enhanced by a phenomenon that we term covariance asymmetry: conditional covariances with the market increase only significantly following negative market news. We do not find significant asymmetries in conditional betas.
Download or read book New Econometric Modelling Research written by William N. Toggins and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2008 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric models are used by economists to find standard relationships among aspects of the macroeconomy and use those relationships to predict the effects of certain events (like government policies) on inflation, unemployment, growth, etc... Econometric models generally have a short-run aggregate supply component with fixed prices, and aggregate demand portion, and a potential output component. Two famous econometric models are the Federal Reserve Bank econometric model and the DRI-WEFA model. This book presents new and important research in this field.
Download or read book International Conference of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering ICCMSE 2004 written by Theodore Simos and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-04-29 with total page 1192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The International Conference of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering (ICCMSE) is unique in its kind. It regroups original contributions from all fields of the traditional Sciences, Mathematics, Physics, Chemistry, Biology, Medicine and all branches of Engineering. The aim of the conference is to bring together computational scientists from several disciplines in order to share methods and ideas. More than 370 extended abstracts have been submitted for consideration for presentation in ICCMSE 2004. From these, 289 extended abstracts have been selected after international peer review by at least two independent reviewers.
Download or read book The Asymmetry of Market Returns and Its Impact on the Mean Variance Frontier written by Jatikumar Sengupta and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Emerging Financial Markets written by Jonathan Batten and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2011-03-02 with total page 745 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 has highlighted the resilience of the financial markets and economies from the developing world. This title investigates and assesses the impact and response to the crisis from an emerging markets perspective including asset pricing, contagion, financial intermediation, market structure and regulation.
Download or read book Sample Size Skewness and Leverage Effects in Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation written by Laura García Jorcano and published by Ed. Universidad de Cantabria. This book was released on 2020-02-24 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis analyzes the effect that the sample size, the asymmetry in the distribution of returns and the leverage in their volatility have on the estimation and forecasting of market risk in financial assets. The goal is to compare the performance of a variety of models for the estimation and forecasting of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for a set of assets of different nature: market indexes, individual stocks, bonds, exchange rates, and commodities. The three chapters of the thesis address issues of greatest interest for the measurement of risk in financial institutions and, therefore, for the supervision of risks in the financial system. They deal with technical issues related to the implementation of the Basel Committee's guidelines on some aspects of which very little is known in the academic world and in the specialized financial sector. In the first chapter, a numerical correction is proposed on the values usually estimatedwhen there is little statistical information, either because it is a financial asset (bond, investment fund...) recently created or issued, or because the nature or the structure of the asset or portfolio have recently changed. The second chapter analyzes the relevance of different aspects of risk modeling. The third and last chapter provides a characterization of the preferable methodology to comply with Basel requirements related to the backtesting of the Expected Shortfall.
Download or read book Trends in Emerging Markets Finance Institutions and Money written by Duc Khuong Nguyen and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-12-02 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the waves of financial liberalization in the 1980s, emerging market economies have been accessible to foreign investors. Altogether, they contributed up to 43.8% of the global GDP in 2018, and many of them, such as China, India, Bangladesh, Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam from 2010 to 2019, are among the fastest-growing economies in the world. Given the high economic growth, the assets issued by companies in emerging markets are viewed as a new set of investment opportunities for global investors and fund managers who seek to improve the risk-adjusted performance of their portfolios. In addition to their risky profile due to the lack of transparency as well as stable and matured institutions, their recent development path faces a number of challenges arising not only from the slow pace of economic reforms but also from their increased integration with the world. Geopolitical risks, the US–China trade wars, and rising policy uncertainty around the world are expected to reduce their growth potential and performance. This Special Issue dedicates special attention to the current dynamics of emerging financial markets, as well as their perspectives of development as a key driver for sustainable firms and economies. Accordingly, the focus is particularly placed on market integration and interdependence, valuations and risk management practices, and the financing means for inclusive growth.
Download or read book The Asymmetric Impact of Firm Specific and of Index Returns on the Volatility Processes of Individual Stocks written by Nikolaos Voukelatos and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article examines the volatility processes of the 30 constituent stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from 1998 to 2007. Estimating the standard Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (GJR) model across the DJIA's components confirms previous empirical findings of individual stocks' conditional variances being less asymmetric than that of the parent index. A modified specification is then tested, termed the GJR-I, where lagged signed market returns have replaced firm-specific returns. The results suggest that individual stock volatility is significantly correlated with past signed index returns and that the asymmetry phenomenon is more pronounced with respect to market news compared to firm-specific news. This result still holds after estimating an extended specification where the conditional variance responds both to idiosyncratic and systematic innovations. The fact that individual stock volatility responds more asymmetrically to market returns than to firm specific returns stands in contrast to the 'leverage effect' as well as 'volatility feedback' explanations, but it is consistent with the hypothesis of the volatility asymmetry phenomenon being a 'down market effect'
Download or read book Cases on Economic Crisis Impact on Multinational Corporations written by Tennin, Kyla Latrice and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2024-02-16 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adaptability and strategic acumen are paramount in global business. Cases on Economic Crisis Impact on Multinational Corporations is a comprehensive reference book meticulously crafted by a group of industry practitioners, consulting firm owners, academics, and business scholars. This robust resource offers an incisive exploration of real-world challenges multinational corporations face amidst economic upheaval, delivering actionable insights that resonate with leaders and learners alike. This book delves into the challenges that economic crises pose. The multifaceted cases within its pages are designed not to provide simple answers but to stimulate critical thinking, strategical analysis, and the creative prowess needed to guide organizations through tumultuous times. The goal of the experts behind this resource is to help organizations navigate unprecedented times and ultimately improve and keep economies operating, as well as the businesses functioning within them.
Download or read book Returns and Volatility Asymmetries in Global Stock Markets written by Thomas Chinan Chiang and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the hypothesis that both stock returns and volatility are asymmetrical functions of past information derived from domestic and US stock market news. By employing a double-threshold regression GARCH model to investigate four major index return series, we find significant evidence to sustain the asymmetrical hypothesis of stock returns. Specifically, evidence strongly supports the hypothesis that stock index returns are positively correlated with a composite of stock return news, which is obtained by a weighted average of the lagged domestic and US stock index returns. Moreover, we find that negative news will cause a larger decline in a national stock return than will an equal magnitude of good news. This also holds true for the conditional variance. The variance appears to be more volatile and persistent when bad news hits the market than when good news does. Consistent with existing literature, asymmetries in stock returns are not independent of asymmetries in volatility since a larger adjustment in stock prices to bad news is likely to cause domestic investors to change the debt-equity ratio, leading to higher volatility in stock market.
Download or read book Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns Evidence from Inter Korea Geopolitics written by Seungho Jung and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.
Download or read book Stock Index Futures written by Charles M.S. Sutcliffe and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-01-18 with total page 844 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global value of trading in index futures is about $20 trillion per year and rising and for many countries the value traded is similar to that traded on their stock markets. This book describes how index futures markets work and clearly summarises the substantial body of international empirical evidence relating to these markets. Using the concepts and tools of finance, the book also provides a comprehensive description of the economic forces that underlie trading in index futures. Stock Index Futures 3/e contains many teaching and learning aids including numerous examples, a glossary, essay questions, comprehensive references, and a detailed subject index. Written primarily for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students, this text will also be useful to researchers and market participants who want to gain a better understanding of these markets.
Download or read book The Behavior of Asset Return Moments with Asymmetric Information Price Taking and Risk Aversion written by Steve L. Slezak and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Asymmetric Risk Loadings in the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Li Gu and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time-varying factor loadings exhibit pronounced asymmetry in the cross section of stock returns. To capture this asymmetry, we develop regime-switching versions of the CAPM and the Fama French three-factor model, allowing both factor loadings and predictable risk premiums to switch across regimes. We estimate the models jointly on the decile book-to-market portfolios, together with the market portfolio to investigate the role of asymmetric risk in the book-to-market premium. We find that betas of value stocks increase significantly during bear market episodes. However, we still reject that the book-to-market premium is equal to zero for both the regime-switching conditional CAPM and the Fama-French model, even in the presence of regimes.
Download or read book Asymmetric Effects of Return and Volatility on Correlation between International Equity Markets written by Abderrahim Taamouti and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How the correlation between equity returns behaves during market turmoils has been an issue of discussion in the international finance literature. Some research suggest an increase of correlation during volatile periods [Ang and Bekaert, 2002], while others argue its stability [Forbes and Rigobon, 2002]. In this paper, we study the impact of returns and volatility on correlation between international equity markets. Our objective is to determine if there is any asymmetry in correlation and identify the main explanation for this asymmetry. Within a framework of autoregressive models we quantify the relationship between return, volatility, and correlation using the generalized impulse response function and we test for the asymmetries in the return-correlation and volatility-correlation relationships. We also examine the implications of these asymmetric effects for the optimal international portfolio. Empirical evidence using weekly data on US, Canada, UK, and France equity indices, show that without taking into account the effect of return, there is an asymmetric impact of volatility on correlation. The volatility seems to have more impact on correlation during market upturn periods than during downturn periods. However, once we introduce the effect of return, the asymmetric impact of volatility on correlation disappears. These observations suggest that, the relation between volatility and correlation is an association rather than a causality. The strong increase in the correlation is driven by the market direction and the level of return rather than the level of the volatility. These results are confirmed using some tests of the asymmetry in volatility-correlation and return-correlation relationships in separate models and then in a joint model. Finally, we find that taking into account the asymmetric effect of return on correlation leads to an average financial gain ranged between 3.35 and 37.25 basis points for optimal international diversification.
Download or read book Forecasting Asymmetries in Aggregate Stock Market Returns written by C. James Hueng and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a time-series test for the Differences-of-Opinion theory proposed by Hong and Stein (2003) in the aggregate market, thus extending Chen, Hong, and Stein's (2001) cross-sectional test for this theory across individual stocks. An autoregressive conditional density model with a skewed-t distribution is used to estimate the effects of past trading volume on return asymmetry. Using NYSE and AMEX data from 1962 to 2000, we find that the prediction of the Hong-Stein model that negative skewness will be most pronounced under high trading volume conditions is not supported in our time-series analysis with market data.
