Download or read book A Practitioner s Guide to State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
Download or read book State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-21 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
Download or read book The Accuracy of State Population Projections written by Michael A. Stoto and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Accuracy of Population Projections for the United States written by Henry S. Shryock and published by . This book was released on with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Accuracy of Population Projection Methods at the U S Census Bureau written by and published by . This book was released on 1987* with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Evaluation of the Census Bureau s 1995 to 2025 State Population Projections One Year Later written by Paul R. Campbell and published by . This book was released on with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates the Cenus Bureau's 1996 State population projection results using recent population estimates. Besides reporting on the accuracy of the projections, the paper evaluates the components used in the projections, The results and discussions are useful in identifying which components of change-births, deaths,interstate migration, and international migration-need to be further refined.
Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-10-11 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-09-11 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Download or read book Population Projections written by Paul R. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Population Projections and Their Accuracy written by Usha D. Agrawal and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book How Accurate Were the Census Bureau s State Population Projections for the Early 1990 s written by Paul R. Campbell and published by . This book was released on with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One method of validating the Census Bureau's State population projection model is to asess the extent of agreement between projected population totals and subsequent realized outcomes. This study also examines components of population change, such as births, deaths, and net migration, and the State population projection totals published by State by State agencies. Early tracking of the Census Bureau's State population projections for the years 1993 to 2020 using recent estimates provides a diagnostic tool for usres: (1) to appraise the short tem accuracy of the projections and (2) to consider improvementsw in the future Census Bureau State projection models.
Download or read book Adjustment Again written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Governmental Affairs and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Development and Accuracy of Projects of Population and Households in the United States written by Jacob S. Siegel and published by . This book was released on with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The history of the official U.S. projections of population and households in recent decades is briefly reviewed, with particular attention to projections. The introduction of the cohort-component procedure in the 1930's opened the way for separate analysis of the trend of the components of births, deaths, and net immigration in connection with making population projections. As a further development, the period-fertility method of projecting births gave way in the 1960's to the cohort-fertility method. Consideration is now being given to various methods involving parity-progression procedures. Some alternative methods and problems of measuring the accuracy of population projections are then considered. The percent "error" in the projected population growth, by components and age, and the range from high to low expressed as a percent should also be examined in addition to the percent "error" in the total population. However accuracy is measured, the projections made in the 1930's and 1940's were often wide of the mark, and those made in the 1950's and 1960's failed to anticipate the sharp changes which occurred, even though the actual figures usually fell within the range projected. Elaboration of projection methodology has not resulted in any great increase in the precision of the projections, largely because birth rates have fluctuated widely, and the fluctuations have proven difficult, if not impossible, to predict. The projections of households have had a roughly similar history, and the methods and problems of evaluation are somewhat similar. Their development has been characterized by the introduction of alternative and changing "headship" rates and increasing disaggregation of the data and procedures. The paper concludes with some generalizations based on U.S. experience. Although refinement of methods may contribute little to accuracy, accuracy is only one aspect of the usefulness of projections. The need for conditional projections and their analytical usefulness are such that there is no question that we should confidently continue to make them.
Download or read book Empirical Study of the Accuracy of Selected Methods of Projecting State Populations written by Helen R. White and published by . This book was released on 1954 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As tentative guides in the preparation of population projections for geographic subdivisions of the United States, the accuracy in the past of several methods of projecting population has been measured. These measures have been analyzed to some extent for information on the effects of selected factors other than methodology on the accuracy of projections.
Download or read book Population Projections of the United States by Age Sex Race and Hispanic Origin written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Accuracy of the U S Census Bureau National Population Projections and Their Respective Components of Change written by Tammany J. Mulder and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Accuracy of Population Projections written by Michael A. Stoto and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 3 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
