Download or read book The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reports on a comprehensive study of the distributions of summary measures of error for a large collection of quarterly multiperiod predictions of six variables representing inflation, real qrowth, unemployment,and percentage changes in nominal GNP and two of its more volatile components.The data come from surveys conducted since 1968 by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the American Statistical Association and cover more than 70 individuals professionally engaged in forecasting the course of the U. S.economy (mostly economists, analysts, and executives from the world of corporate business and finance). There is considerable differentiation among these forecasts, across the individuals, variables, and predictive horizons covered. Combining corresponding predictions from different sources can result insignificant gains; thus the group mean forecasts are on the average over timemore accurate than most of the corresponding sets of individual forecasts. But there is also a moderate deqree of consistency in the relative performance of a sufficient number of the survey members, as evidenced in positive rank correlations among ratios of the individual to group root mean square errors.
Download or read book Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting The State of the Art written by Elia Xacapyr and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.
Download or read book Economic Structural Change written by Peter Hackl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural change is a fundamental concept in economic model building. Statistics and econometrics provide the tools for identification of change, for estimating the onset of a change, for assessing its extent and relevance. Statistics and econometrics also have de veloped models that are suitable for picturing the data-generating process in the presence of structural change by assimilating the changes or due to the robustness to its presence. Important subjects in this context are forecasting methods. The need for such methods became obvious when, as a consequence of the oil price shock, the results of empirical analyses suddenly seemed to be much less reliable than before. Nowadays, economists agree that models with fixed structure that picture reality over longer periods are illusions. An example for less dramatic causes than the oil price shock with similarly profound effects is economic growth and its impacts on the economic system. Indeed, economic growth was a motivating concept for this volume. In 1983, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxen burg/ Austria initiated an ambitious project on "Economic Growth and Structural Change".
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle RLE Business Cycles written by James W. Coons and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-24 with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1994 and the recipient of the Stonier Library Award, this volume evaluates an alternative approach – the sequential filter- to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle. The specific hypothesis is that the sequential filter can produce valuable signals of cyclical peaks and troughs in interest rates. The analysis focusses on US interest rates from April 1953 to December 1988.
Download or read book Leading Economic Indicators written by Kajal Lahiri and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
Download or read book The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods Systems written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Memos to the Governor Third Edition written by Dall W. Forsythe and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2012-08-30 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This revised and updated edition of Memos to the Governor is a concise and highly readable guidebook that explains in clear, understandable prose the technical, economic, and political dynamics of budget making. Updated with many new examples of budget quandaries from recent years, this book helps current and future public administrators untangle the knotty processes of budget preparation and implementation. Authors Dall W. Forsythe and Donald J. Boyd outline the budgeting process through a series of memos from a budget director to a newly elected governor—a format that helps readers with little or no background understand complicated financial issues. They cover all of the steps of budget preparation, from strategy to execution, explaining technical vocabulary, and discussing key topics including baseline budgeting, revenue forecasting, and gap-closing options. Forsythe and Boyd bring fresh insights into such issues as the importance of a multiyear strategic budget plan, the impact of the business cycle on state budgets, the tactical problems of getting budgets adopted by legislatures, and, of course, the relationship between governor and budget officer. Memos to the Governor is a painless, practical introduction to budget preparation for students of and practitioners in public administration and public-sector financial management.
Download or read book The Cambridge Handbook of Psychology and Economic Behaviour written by Alan Lewis and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-02-15 with total page 1240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has recently been an escalated interest in the interface between psychology and economics. The Cambridge Handbook of Psychology and Economic Behaviour is a valuable reference dedicated to improving our understanding of the economic mind and economic behaviour. Employing empirical methods - including laboratory and field experiments, observations, questionnaires and interviews - the Handbook provides comprehensive coverage of theory and method, financial and consumer behaviour, the environment and biological perspectives. This second edition also includes new chapters on topics such as neuroeconomics, unemployment, debt, behavioural public finance, and cutting-edge work on fuzzy trace theory and robots, cyborgs and consumption. With distinguished contributors from a variety of countries and theoretical backgrounds, the Handbook is an important step forward in the improvement of communications between the disciplines of psychology and economics that will appeal to academic researchers and graduates in economic psychology and behavioral economics.
Download or read book Three Chinese Economies written by Linda Fung-Yee Ng and published by Chinese University Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book studies the opportunities and challenges confronted by China, Hong Kong and Taiwan against the backdrop of their rapid economic growth.
Download or read book Accuracy Measures and the Evaluation of Forecasts written by Essam Malmoud and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting Methods for Management written by Steven C. Wheelwright and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1985 with total page 442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fourth edition of this classic source provides an overview of a broad range of forecasting techniques and an understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. No background in quantitiative methods is required. The new edition includes greater emphasis on the track record of forecasting, a refined approach to the quantitative methods, new material on monitoring, computer-based systems and empirical evidence of forecasting usage, and a complete update on technological and judgmental methods.
Download or read book State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-21 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
Download or read book The Psychology of Sociability written by Joseph P. Forgas and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-06-01 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited volume brings together the latest research in understanding the nature, origins, and evolution of human sociability, one of the most intriguing aspects of human psychology. Sociability—our sophisticated ability to interact with others, imagine, plan, and execute interdependent behaviours—lies at the heart of our evolutionary success, and is the most important prerequisite for the development of increasingly elaborate civilizations. With contributions from internationally renowned researchers in areas of social psychology as well as anthropology and evolutionary psychology, this book demonstrates the role of social psychology in explaining how human sociability evolved, how it shapes our mental and emotional lives, and how it influences both large-scale civilizational practices and intimate interpersonal relations. Chapters cover the core psychological characteristics that shape human sociability, including such phenomena as the role of information exchange, affective processes, social norms, power relations, personal relationships, attachment patterns, personality characteristics, and evolutionary pressures. Featuring a wide variety of empirical and theoretical backgrounds, the book will be of interest to students and researchers in all areas of the social sciences, as well as practitioners and applied professionals who deal with issues related to sociability in their daily lives.
Download or read book World Index of Economic Forecasts written by Robert Fildes and published by Gower Publishing Company, Limited. This book was released on 1995 with total page 698 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive reference for those concerned with business forecasting and government planning, cited in BCL3 and Sheehy . It provides international coverage of macroeconomic forecasting services and surveys. This revised and updated edition provides information on 230 organizations in 58 countries
Download or read book Canadian Economic Forecasting written by Mervin Daub and published by McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP. This book was released on 1987-11-01 with total page 249 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Daub discusses both the rationale for the practice of forecasting and the methods commonly used, and traces the history of aggregate economic forecasting in Canada, examining the structure, conduct, and performance of the present forecasting "industry," particularly the nature of demand and supply, pricing and promotion considerations, and profits and efficiency. He also examinines factors which influence the accuracy of forecasts and reviews the record of Canadian forecasting. In the last chapters Daub considers public policy aspects of economic forecasting. Should forecasters be held liable for inaccurate forecasts? Should they be subject to regulation? He concludes by observing that the practice of forecasting is inextricably linked to our sense of time, as is the very different exercise of time-keeping with clocks or watches. It is socially complex, highly institutionalized, and informed by the many and varied visions we carry of the world. Through it we attempt to organize and shape our individual and collective futures. Until uncertainty is eliminated from human affairs, forecasting will continue to be a necessary social practice, despite recurring bouts of cynicism as to its worth.
