Download or read book Testing for Random Walk Coefficients in Regression and State Space Models written by Martin Moryson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Regression and state space models with time varying coefficients are treated in a thorough manner. State space models are introduced as a means to model time varying regression coefficients. The Kalman filter and smoother recursions are explained in an easy to understand fashion. The main part of the book deals with testing the null hypothesis of constant regression coefficients against the alternative that they follow a random walk. Different exact and large sample tests are presented and extensively compared based on Monte Carlo studies, so that the reader is guided in the question which test to choose in a particular situation. Moreover, different new tests are proposed which are suitable in situations with autocorrelated or heteroskedastic errors. Additionally, methods are developed to test for the constancy of regression coefficients in situations where one knows already that some coefficients follow a random walk, thereby one is enabled to find out which of the coefficients varies over time.

Download or read book State Space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-11-03 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data. The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.

Download or read book Economic Structural Change written by Peter Hackl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural change is a fundamental concept in economic model building. Statistics and econometrics provide the tools for identification of change, for estimating the onset of a change, for assessing its extent and relevance. Statistics and econometrics also have de veloped models that are suitable for picturing the data-generating process in the presence of structural change by assimilating the changes or due to the robustness to its presence. Important subjects in this context are forecasting methods. The need for such methods became obvious when, as a consequence of the oil price shock, the results of empirical analyses suddenly seemed to be much less reliable than before. Nowadays, economists agree that models with fixed structure that picture reality over longer periods are illusions. An example for less dramatic causes than the oil price shock with similarly profound effects is economic growth and its impacts on the economic system. Indeed, economic growth was a motivating concept for this volume. In 1983, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxen burg/ Austria initiated an ambitious project on "Economic Growth and Structural Change".

Download or read book Forecasting Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter written by Andrew C. Harvey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-02-22 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Download or read book Applied Time Series Econometrics written by Helmut Lütkepohl and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-08-02 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time series econometrics is a rapidly evolving field. Particularly, the cointegration revolution has had a substantial impact on applied analysis. Hence, no textbook has managed to cover the full range of methods in current use and explain how to proceed in applied domains. This gap in the literature motivates the present volume. The methods are sketched out, reminding the reader of the ideas underlying them and giving sufficient background for empirical work. The treatment can also be used as a textbook for a course on applied time series econometrics. Topics include: unit root and cointegration analysis, structural vector autoregressions, conditional heteroskedasticity and nonlinear and nonparametric time series models. Crucial to empirical work is the software that is available for analysis. New methodology is typically only gradually incorporated into existing software packages. Therefore a flexible Java interface has been created, allowing readers to replicate the applications and conduct their own analyses.

Download or read book Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data written by Gilles Dufrénot and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-11-21 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a comprehensive overview of the latest econometric methods for studying the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It examines alternative methodological approaches and concepts, including quantile spectra and co-spectra, and explores topics such as non-linear and non-stationary behavior, stochastic volatility models, and the econometrics of commodity markets and globalization. Furthermore, it demonstrates the application of recent techniques in various fields: in the frequency domain, in the analysis of persistent dynamics, in the estimation of state space models and new classes of volatility models. The book is divided into two parts: The first part applies econometrics to the field of macroeconomics, discussing trend/cycle decomposition, growth analysis, monetary policy and international trade. The second part applies econometrics to a wide range of topics in financial economics, including price dynamics in equity, commodity and foreign exchange markets and portfolio analysis. The book is essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners in government and financial institutions interested in applying recent econometric time series methods to financial and economic data.

Download or read book Partially Linear Models written by Wolfgang Härdle and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last ten years, there has been increasing interest and activity in the general area of partially linear regression smoothing in statistics. Many methods and techniques have been proposed and studied. This monograph hopes to bring an up-to-date presentation of the state of the art of partially linear regression techniques. The emphasis is on methodologies rather than on the theory, with a particular focus on applications of partially linear regression techniques to various statistical problems. These problems include least squares regression, asymptotically efficient estimation, bootstrap resampling, censored data analysis, linear measurement error models, nonlinear measurement models, nonlinear and nonparametric time series models.

Download or read book mODa 8 Advances in Model Oriented Design and Analysis written by Jesus Lopez-Fidalgo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-05-14 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains the proceedings of the 8th Workshop on Model-Oriented Design and Analysis. It offers leading and pioneering work on optimal experimental designs, both from a mathematical/statistical point of view and with regard to real applications. Scientists from all over the world have contributed to this volume. Primary topics are designs for nonlinear models and applications to experimental medicine.

Download or read book MODA 7 Advances in Model Oriented Design and Analysis written by Alessandro Di Bucchianico and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volume contains the proceedings of the 7th Workshop on Model-Oriented Design and Analysis which has had the purpose of bringing together leading researchers in Eastern and Western Europe for an in-depth discussion of the optimal design of experiments. The papers are representative of the latest developments concerning non-linear models, computational algorithms and important applications, especially to medical statistics.

Download or read book MODA 6 Advances in Model Oriented Design and Analysis written by Anthony C. Atkinson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book includes many of the papers presented at the 6th International workshop on Model Oriented Data Analysis held in June 2001. This series began in March 1987 with a meeting on the Wartburg near Eisenach (at that time in the GDR). The next four meetings were in 1990 (St Kyrik monastery, Bulgaria), 1992 (Petrodvorets, St Petersburg, Russia), 1995 (Spetses, Greece) and 1998 (Marseilles, France). Initially the main purpose of these workshops was to bring together leading scientists from 'Eastern' and 'Western' Europe for the exchange of ideas in theoretical and applied statistics, with special emphasis on experimental design. Now that the sep aration between East and West is much less rigid, this exchange has, in principle, become much easier. However, it is still important to provide opportunities for this interaction. MODA meetings are celebrated for their friendly atmosphere. Indeed, dis cussions between young and senior scientists at these meetings have resulted in several fruitful long-term collaborations. This intellectually stimulating atmosphere is achieved by limiting the number of participants to around eighty, by the choice of a location in which communal living is encour aged and, of course, through the careful scientific direction provided by the Programme Committee. It is a tradition of these meetings to provide low cost accommodation, low fees and financial support for the travel of young and Eastern participants. This is only possible through the help of sponsors and outside financial support was again important for the success of the meeting.

Download or read book The Art of Semiparametrics written by Stefan Sperlich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-07-25 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This selection of articles emerged from different works presented "The Art of Semiparametrics" conference in 2003 in Berlin. It offers a collection of individual works that together show the large spectrum of semiparametric statistics. The book combines theoretical contributions with more applied and empirical studies. Although each article represents an original contribution to its own field, all are written in a self-contained way that may be read by non-experts.

Download or read book Foundations of Statistical Inference written by Yoel Haitovsky and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is a collection of papers presented at a conference held in Shoresh Holiday Resort near Jerusalem, Israel, in December 2000 organized by the Israeli Ministry of Science, Culture and Sport. The theme of the conference was "Foundation of Statistical Inference: Applications in the Medical and Social Sciences and in Industry and the Interface of Computer Sciences". The following is a quotation from the Program and Abstract booklet of the conference. "Over the past several decades, the field of statistics has seen tremendous growth and development in theory and methodology. At the same time, the advent of computers has facilitated the use of modern statistics in all branches of science, making statistics even more interdisciplinary than in the past; statistics, thus, has become strongly rooted in all empirical research in the medical, social, and engineering sciences. The abundance of computer programs and the variety of methods available to users brought to light the critical issues of choosing models and, given a data set, the methods most suitable for its analysis. Mathematical statisticians have devoted a great deal of effort to studying the appropriateness of models for various types of data, and defining the conditions under which a particular method work. " In 1985 an international conference with a similar title* was held in Is rael. It provided a platform for a formal debate between the two main schools of thought in Statistics, the Bayesian, and the Frequentists.

Download or read book Household Behaviour Equivalence Scales Welfare and Poverty written by Camilo Dagum and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A group of scholars converging on a common and socially relevant economic theme of research, that of households' welfare and poverty, met several times in the last two years to discuss the research progress and the opportunity to bring to gether for publication the research so far accomplished. They shared a research project supported by a grant from the former Italian Ministero dell'Universita e della Ricerca Scientifica e Tecnologica (MURST) now Ministero dell'Istruzione, dell'Universita e della Ricerca (MIUR): The Equiva lence Scales in the Measurement of Households' Welfare: Statistical, Economic and Demographic Analysis. The decisive meeting, an international seminar on the topics, was hosted by the University of Florence, siege of the national coordinator of this project. When one think of Florence, it is inevitable to think of the unfolding of Ren aissance, and reciprocally. th To the eyes of a traveller who had arrived to Florence in the 15 century, the city would have appeared as a sort of El Dorado, similarly to what would have occurred to the first conquerors of the South America's lands, so much astonishing were the richness of arts and the opulence of life. The flourishing of painting and sculpture had not equal all over the world and was reaching tops never made equal before. Masaccio, Brunelleschi, Donatello and later on Leonardo and Michelangelo, were the artistic and intellectual genius that enlightened beauty lovers princes.....

Download or read book A Mathematical Theory of Arguments for Statistical Evidence written by Paul-Andre Monney and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-18 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The subject of this book is the reasoning under uncertainty based on sta tistical evidence, where the word reasoning is taken to mean searching for arguments in favor or against particular hypotheses of interest. The kind of reasoning we are using is composed of two aspects. The first one is inspired from classical reasoning in formal logic, where deductions are made from a knowledge base of observed facts and formulas representing the domain spe cific knowledge. In this book, the facts are the statistical observations and the general knowledge is represented by an instance of a special kind of sta tistical models called functional models. The second aspect deals with the uncertainty under which the formal reasoning takes place. For this aspect, the theory of hints [27] is the appropriate tool. Basically, we assume that some uncertain perturbation takes a specific value and then logically eval uate the consequences of this assumption. The original uncertainty about the perturbation is then transferred to the consequences of the assumption. This kind of reasoning is called assumption-based reasoning. Before going into more details about the content of this book, it might be interesting to look briefly at the roots and origins of assumption-based reasoning in the statistical context. In 1930, R. A. Fisher [17] defined the notion of fiducial distribution as the result of a new form of argument, as opposed to the result of the older Bayesian argument.

Download or read book Multivariate Total Quality Control written by Carlo Lauro and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last decades, the production of goods and the offer of services have become quite complex activities mostly because of the markets globalisation, of the continuous push to the innovation and of the constant requests from more and more demanding markets. The main objective of a company system has become the achievement of the quality for the business management cycle. This cycle goes from the design (Plan) to the production (Do), from the control (Check) to the man agement (Action), as well as to the marketing and distribution. Nowadays, the Total Quality of the company system is evaluated, according to the ISO 9000 regulations, in terms of its capacity to adjust the design and the pro duction to the needs expressed (explicitly or implictly) by the final users of a product/service. In this process, the use of statistical techniques is essential not only in the classical approach of Quality Control of a product but also, and most importantly, in the Quality Design oriented to the satisfaction of customers. Thus, Total Quality refers to the global capacity of a company to fit its system to the real needs of its customers by designing products which are able to match the customers' taste and by implementing a statistical control of both the product and the Customer Satisfaction. In such a process of design and evaluation, several statistical variables are involved and with a different nature (numerical, categorical, ordinal).

Download or read book Micro and Macrodata of Firms written by Silvia Biffignandi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 777 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In industrial countries there is a strong interest in the international comparison of business data regarding productivity efficiency and competitiveness. This volume presents methods for the statistical analysis of micro- and macrodata of firms and for an international comparison of the aggregates. Case studies referring to specific countries play an important role for the development of economic hypotheses that should be tested at the international level.

Download or read book Applications of State Space Models in Finance written by Sascha Mergner and published by Universitätsverlag Göttingen. This book was released on 2009 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: State space models play a key role in the estimation of time-varying sensitivities in financial markets. The objective of this book is to analyze the relative merits of modern time series techniques, such as Markov regime switching and the Kalman filter, to model structural changes in the context of widely used concepts in finance. The presented material will be useful for financial economists and practitioners who are interested in taking time-variation in the relationship between financial assets and key economic factors explicitly into account. The empirical part illustrates the application of the various methods under consideration. As a distinctive feature, it includes a comprehensive analysis of the ability of time-varying coefficient models to estimate and predict the conditional nature of systematic risks for European industry portfolios.