Download or read book Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs written by Davide Furceri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-15 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.

Download or read book Tariffs and the Macroeconomy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-09-08 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of tariffs. Existing theoretical models do not provide clear-cut predictions concerning the co-movement between unilateral tariff changes and a set of macroeconomic variables consisting of the real exchange rate, the trade balance, and the level of output. Three different data sets are found to be consistent with the hypothesis that tariffs have no statistically significant impact on the trade balance, the real exchange rate, or the level of output.

Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs written by Jesper Lindé and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-10 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the robustness of the Lerner symmetry result in an open economy New Keynesian model with price rigidities. While the Lerner symmetry result of no real effects of a combined import tariff and export subsidy holds up approximately for a number of alternative assumptions, we obtain quantitatively important long-term deviations under complete international asset markets. Direct pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices and slow exchange rate adjustment can also generate significant short-term deviations from Lerner. Finally, we quantify the macroeconomic costs of a trade war and find that they can be substantial, with permanently lower income and trade volumes. However, a fully symmetric retaliation to a unilaterally imposed border adjustment tax can prevent any real or nominal effects.

Download or read book Tariffs and Growth written by Forrest Capie and published by Manchester University Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Considering some of the historical experiences of protectionism in the world economy, this book shows how it can be applied to the problems of the world economy today.

Download or read book The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty written by Lukas Boer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-01-19 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions in Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism, in aggregate and across sectors and regions. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy uncertainty shocks. Tariff shocks depress trade, investment, and output persistently. The general equilibrium import elasticity is –0.8. Historically, NAFTA/WTO raised output by 1-3% for twenty years. Undoing the 2018/19 measures would raise output by 4% over three years. The findings imply higher gains of trade than partial equilibrium or static trade models.

Download or read book The Political Economy of U S Tariffs written by Réal P. Lavergne and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-05-12 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Political Economy of U.S. Tariffs: An Empirical Analysis provides information pertinent to the political economy of trade barriers. This book discusses the cross-sectional regression analysis across industries to understand why some industries have been more privileged than others. Organized into seven chapters, this book begins with an overview of the structure of protection and identifies the primary actors or principles that condition the formation of trade policy more generally. This text then evaluates the institutional and theoretical reasons why political leverage should not be expected to play a significant role in explaining tariffs. Other chapters consider the notion that the structure of protection at any point in time represents some sort of equilibrium. This book discusses as well the distinction between nominal and effective tariffs. The final chapter deals with individual regressors and groups of regressors. This book is a valuable resource for economists and specialists in quantitative analysis.

Download or read book Tariffs and the Macroeconomy written by Andrew Rose and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs written by Davide Furceri and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.

Download or read book International Trade Distortions and Long Run Economic Growth written by Jong-Wha Lee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-11-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The links between trade and growth are examined in a neoclassical model of an open economy in which domestic production requires both domestic and imported inputs. The model shows that trade distortions induced by such government policies as tariffs and exchange controls generate cross-country divergences in growth rates and in per capita income over a long transitional period. The empirical results confirm that tariff rates and black market premia, interacting with an estimate of the share of free trade imports, have significant negative effects on the growth rate of per capita income across countries in the orders of magnitude predicted by the model.

Download or read book The Economics of Trade Protection written by Neil Vousden and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-08-31 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades there has been a gradual but fundamental change in the nature of trade protection. Even as international negotiation has succeeded in reducing tariffs to low levels, national governments have resorted to a range of increasingly intricate policies to protect their domestic industries from foreign competition. Direct quantitative restrictions on international trade have become particularly widespread. Such nontariff barriers often have very different effects from tariffs and require careful analysis in their own right. This book presents a systematic overview of the modern theory of trade protection. The material in the book divides naturally into four sections. The first section covers trade restrictions in competitive markets, the second trade restrictions and imperfect competition, the third the political economy of trade protection, and the fourth the theory of policy reform. The presentation makes extensive use of diagrams, with the more difficult mathematics included in six appendixes.

Download or read book Free Trade Areas and Rules of Origin written by Mr.Arvind Panagariya and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-11-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Incorporating intermediate inputs into a small-union general-equilibrium model, this paper first develops the welfare economics of preferential trading under the rules of origin (ROO) and then demonstrates that the ROO could improve the political viability of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Two interesting outcomes are derived. First, a welfare reducing FTA that was rejected in the absence of the ROO becomes feasible in the presence of these rules. Second, a welfare improving FTA that was rejected in the absence of the ROO is endorsed in their presence, but upon endorsement it becomes welfare inferior relative to the status quo.

Download or read book Tariffs and the Macroeconomy written by Jonathan David Ostry and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Trade Costs Market Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility written by Mr.Kanda Naknoi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-03-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the effects of trade costs on macroeconomic volatility. We first construct a dynamic, two-country general equilibrium model, where the degree of market integration depends directly on trade costs (transport costs, tariffs, etc.). The model is a extension of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Naturally, a reduction in trade costs leads to more market integration, as the relative price of foreign goods falls and households increase their consumption of imported goods. In addition, with more market integration, the model predicts that the variability of the real exchange rate should fall, while the variability of the trade balance should increase. Trade costs have ambiguous effects on the volatility of other macro variables, such as income and consumption. Finally, we present some empirical findings that provide mixed support for the model's predictions.

Download or read book Trade Policy Income Risk and Welfare written by Tom Krebs and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper studies empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk faced by workers, and uses the estimates of this empirical analysis to evaluate the welfare effect of trade reform. The analysis proceeds in three steps. First, longitudinal data on workers are used to estimate time-varying individual income risk parameters in various manufacturing sectors. Second, the estimated income risk parameters and data on trade barriers are used to analyze the relationship between trade policy and income risk. Finally, a simple dynamic incomplete-market model is used to assess the corresponding welfare costs. In the implementation of this methodology using Mexican data, we find that trade policy changes have a significant short run effect on income risk. Further, while the tariff level has an insignificant mean effect, it nevertheless changes the degree to which macroeconomic shocks affect income risk"--NBER website

Download or read book Clashing Over Commerce written by Douglas A. Irwin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2017-11-29 with total page 873 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Foreign Affairs Best Book of the Year: “Tells the history of American trade policy . . . [A] grand narrative [that] also debunks trade-policy myths.” —Economist Should the United States be open to commerce with other countries, or should it protect domestic industries from foreign competition? This question has been the source of bitter political conflict throughout American history. Such conflict was inevitable, James Madison argued in the Federalist Papers, because trade policy involves clashing economic interests. The struggle between the winners and losers from trade has always been fierce because dollars and jobs are at stake: depending on what policy is chosen, some industries, farmers, and workers will prosper, while others will suffer. Douglas A. Irwin’s Clashing over Commerce is the most authoritative and comprehensive history of US trade policy to date, offering a clear picture of the various economic and political forces that have shaped it. From the start, trade policy divided the nation—first when Thomas Jefferson declared an embargo on all foreign trade and then when South Carolina threatened to secede from the Union over excessive taxes on imports. The Civil War saw a shift toward protectionism, which then came under constant political attack. Then, controversy over the Smoot-Hawley tariff during the Great Depression led to a policy shift toward freer trade, involving trade agreements that eventually produced the World Trade Organization. Irwin makes sense of this turbulent history by showing how different economic interests tend to be grouped geographically, meaning that every proposed policy change found ready champions and opponents in Congress. Deeply researched and rich with insight and detail, Clashing over Commerce provides valuable and enduring insights into US trade policy past and present. “Combines scholarly analysis with a historian’s eye for trends and colorful details . . . readable and illuminating, for the trade expert and for all Americans wanting a deeper understanding of America’s evolving role in the global economy.” —National Review “Magisterial.” —Foreign Affairs

Download or read book Aspects of the Theory of Tariffs Collected Works of Harry Johnson written by Harry Johnson and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-07-18 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An internationally acknowledged authority on all aspects of the theory of international trade and payments, this book collects Harry Johnson’s contributions to the study of international trade, including a critique of the theory of effective protection. The book discusses: the integration of income distribution and other aspects of the economy into the positive theory of tariffs the issues raised by the use of tariffs to promote economic development the implications of distortions of various kinds in the working of competition for tariff theory and policy the costs of protection the implications of effective protection for world economic development and the economic effects of trade preferences the question of free trade and the extent to which it requires the harmonization other aspects of economic policy.

Download or read book Black Hole Tariffs and Endogenous Policy Theory written by Stephen P. Magee and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1989-08-25 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An example of special interest protection is provided by this study's general equilibrium theory that explains income distribution with goods markets, factor markets, lobbies, political parties and voters all pursuing their self interests.