Download or read book Sensitivity of Climate Change Projections to Uncertainties in the Estimates of Observed Changes in Deep ocean Heat Content written by Andrei P. Sokolov and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The MIT 2D climate model is used to make probabilistic projections for changes in global mean surface temperature and for thermosteric sea level rise under a variety of forcing scenarios. The uncertainties in climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean are quantified by using the probability distributions derived from observed 20th century temperature changes. The impact on climate change projections of using the smallest and largest estimates of 20th century deep ocean warming is explored. The impact is large in the case of global mean thermosteric sea level rise. In the MIT reference ("business as usual") scenario the median rise by 2100 is 27 and 43 cm in the respective cases. The impact on increases in global mean surface air temperature is more modest, 4.9 C and 3.9 C in the two respective cases, because of the correlation between climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake required by 20th century surface and upper air temperature changes. The results are also compared with the projections made by the IPCC AR4's multi-model ensemble for several of the SRES scenarios. The multi-model projections are more consistent with the MIT projections based on the largest estimate of ocean warming. However the range for the rate of heat uptake by the ocean suggested by the lowest estimate of ocean warming is more consistent with the range suggested by the 20th century changes in surface and upper air temperatures, combined with expert prior for climate sensitivity.
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book Advances in Environment Research and Application 2011 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2012-01-09 with total page 618 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in Environment Research and Application: 2011 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ eBook that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Ecology Environment and Conservation. The editors have built Advances in Environment Research and Application: 2011 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Ecology Environment and Conservation in this eBook to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Advances in Environment Research and Application: 2011 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.
Download or read book Sensitivities of Deep ocean Heat Uptake and Heat Content to Surface Fluxes and Subgrid scale Parameters in an Ocean GCM with Idealized Geometry written by Boyin Huang and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sensitivities of the net heat flux into the deep-ocean (Qnet) and of the deep-ocean heat content (DOC) below 700 m are studied using an ocean general circulation model and its adjoint. Both are found to have very similar sensitivities. The sensitivity to the surface freshwater flux (E-P-R) is positive in the Atlantic, but negative in the Pacific and Southern Ocean. A positive sensitivity to the downward net surface heat flux is found only in the North Atlantic north of 40ʻN and the Southern Ocean. The diapycnal diffusivity of temperature affects Qnet and DOC positively in a large area of the tropics and subtropics in both the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean. The isopycnal diffusivity contributes to Qnet and DOC mainly in the Southern Ocean. Detailed analysis indicates that the surface freshwater flux affects Qnet and DOC by changing vertical velocity, temperature stratification, and overturning circulation. The downward net surface heat flux appears to increase Qnet and DOC by strengthening vertical advection and isopycnal mixing. The contribution of isopycnal diffusivity to Qnet and DOC is largely associated with the vertical heat flux due to isopycnal mixing. Similarly, the diapycnal diffusivity of temperature modulates Qnet and DOC through the downward heat flux due to diapycnal diffusion. The uncertainties of Qnet and DOC are estimated based on the sensitivities and error bars of observed surface forcing and oceanic diffusivities. For DOC, they are about 0.7°K (1°K = 3 x 1024 J) for the isopycnal diffusivity, 0.4°K for the diapycnal diffusivity of temperature, 0.3°K for the surface freshwater flux, and 0.1°K for the net surface heat flux and zonal wind stress. Our results suggest that the heat uptake by ocean GCMs in climate experiments is sensitive to the isopycnal diffusivity as well to the diapycnal thermal diffusivity.
Download or read book Climate Change 2013 The Physical Science Basis written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-03-24 with total page 1554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will again form the standard scientific reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences, including students and researchers in environmental science, meteorology, climatology, biology, ecology and atmospheric chemistry. It provides invaluable material for decision makers and stakeholders at international, national and local level, in government, businesses, and NGOs. This volume provides: • An authoritative and unbiased overview of the physical science basis of climate change • A more extensive assessment of changes observed throughout the climate system than ever before • New dedicated chapters on sea-level change, biogeochemical cycles, clouds and aerosols, and regional climate phenomena • Extensive coverage of model projections, both near-term and long-term climate projections • A detailed assessment of climate change observations, modelling, and attribution for every continent • A new comprehensive atlas of global and regional climate projections for 35 regions of the world
Download or read book Thriving on Our Changing Planet written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-01-20 with total page 717 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet presents prioritized science, applications, and observations, along with related strategic and programmatic guidance, to support the U.S. civil space Earth observation program over the coming decade.
Download or read book Sensitivities of Deep ocean Heat Uptake and Heat Content in an OGM with Idealized Geometry written by Boyin Huang and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: (Cont.) The uncertainties of Qnet and DOC are estimated based on the sensitivities and error bars of observed surface forcing and oceanic diffusivities. For DOC, they are about 0.7°K (1°K = 3 x 1024J) for the isopycnal diffusivity, 0.4°K for the diapycnal diffusivity of temperature, 0.3°K for the surface freshwater flux, and 0.1°K for the net surface heat flux and zonal wind stress. Our results suggest that the heat uptake by ocean GCMs in climate experiments is sensitive to the isopycnal diffusivity as well to the diapycnal thermal diffusivity.
Download or read book Ocean Circulation and Climate written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2001-03-27 with total page 737 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book represents all the knowledge we currently have on ocean circulation. It presents an up-to-date summary of the state of the science relating to the role of the oceans in the physical climate system.The book is structured to guide the reader through the wide range of World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) science in a consistent way. Cross-references between contributors have been added, and the book has a comprehensive index and unified reference list.The book is simple to read, at the undergraduate level. It was written by the best scientists in the world who have collaborated to carry out years of experiments to better understand ocean circulation.
Download or read book Earth System Monitoring written by John Orcutt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-12 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern Earth System Monitoring represents a fundamental change in the way scientists study the Earth System. In Oceanography, for the past two centuries, ships have provided the platforms for observing. Expeditions on the continents and Earth’s poles are land-based analogues. Fundamental understanding of current systems, climate, natural hazards, and ecosystems has been greatly advanced. While these approaches have been remarkably successful, the need to establish measurements over time can only be made using Earth observations and observatories with exacting standards and continuous data. The 19 peer-reviewed contributions in this volume provide early insights into this emerging view of Earth in both space and time in which change is a critical component of our growing understanding.
Download or read book Radiative Forcing of Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-03-25 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changes in climate are driven by natural and human-induced perturbations of the Earth's energy balance. These climate drivers or "forcings" include variations in greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use, and the amount of energy Earth receives from the Sun. Although climate throughout Earth's history has varied from "snowball" conditions with global ice cover to "hothouse" conditions when glaciers all but disappeared, the climate over the past 10,000 years has been remarkably stable and favorable to human civilization. Increasing evidence points to a large human impact on global climate over the past century. The report reviews current knowledge of climate forcings and recommends critical research needed to improve understanding. Whereas emphasis to date has been on how these climate forcings affect global mean temperature, the report finds that regional variation and climate impacts other than temperature deserve increased attention.
Download or read book Assessment of Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-03-26 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The social cost of carbon (SCC) for a given year is an estimate, in dollars, of the present discounted value of the damage caused by a 1-metric ton increase in CO2 emissions into the atmosphere in that year; or equivalently, the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions by the same amount in that given year. The SCC is intended to provide a comprehensive measure of the monetized value of the net damages from global climate change from an additional unit of CO2, including, but not limited to, changes in net agricultural productivity, energy use, human health effects, and property damages from increased flood risk. Federal agencies use the SCC to value the CO2 emissions impacts of various policies including emission and fuel economy standards for vehicles, regulations of industrial air pollutants from industrial manufacturing, emission standards for power plants and solid waste incineration, and appliance energy efficiency standards. There are significant challenges to estimating a dollar value that reflects all the physical, human, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change. Recognizing that the models and scientific data underlying the SCC estimates evolve and improve over time, the federal government made a commitment to provide regular updates to the estimates. To assist with future revisions of the SCC, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (IWG) requested the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine complete a study that assessed the merits and challenges of a limited near-term update to the SCC and of a comprehensive update of the SCC to ensure that the estimates reflect the best available science. This interim report focuses on near-term updates to the SCC estimates.
Download or read book Climate Change written by The Royal Society and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2014-02-26 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate Change: Evidence and Causes is a jointly produced publication of The US National Academy of Sciences and The Royal Society. Written by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists and reviewed by climate scientists and others, the publication is intended as a brief, readable reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and other individuals seeking authoritative information on the some of the questions that continue to be asked. Climate Change makes clear what is well-established and where understanding is still developing. It echoes and builds upon the long history of climate-related work from both national academies, as well as on the newest climate-change assessment from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It touches on current areas of active debate and ongoing research, such as the link between ocean heat content and the rate of warming.
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-05-19 with total page 1807 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book Climate Change 2021 The Physical Science Basis written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2023-07-26 with total page 2410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It considers in situ and remote observations; paleoclimate information; understanding of climate drivers and physical, chemical, and biological processes and feedbacks; global and regional climate modelling; advances in methods of analyses; and insights from climate services. It assesses the current state of the climate; human influence on climate in all regions; future climate change including sea level rise; global warming effects including extremes; climate information for risk assessment and regional adaptation; limiting climate change by reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions and reducing other greenhouse gas emissions; and benefits for air quality. The report serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with the latest policy-relevant information on climate change. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book Understanding Earth s Deep Past written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-08-02 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is little dispute within the scientific community that humans are changing Earth's climate on a decadal to century time-scale. By the end of this century, without a reduction in emissions, atmospheric CO2 is projected to increase to levels that Earth has not experienced for more than 30 million years. As greenhouse gas emissions propel Earth toward a warmer climate state, an improved understanding of climate dynamics in warm environments is needed to inform public policy decisions. In Understanding Earth's Deep Past, the National Research Council reports that rocks and sediments that are millions of years old hold clues to how the Earth's future climate would respond in an environment with high levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Understanding Earth's Deep Past provides an assessment of both the demonstrated and underdeveloped potential of the deep-time geologic record to inform us about the dynamics of the global climate system. The report describes past climate changes, and discusses potential impacts of high levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases on regional climates, water resources, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and the cycling of life-sustaining elements. While revealing gaps in scientific knowledge of past climate states, the report highlights a range of high priority research issues with potential for major advances in the scientific understanding of climate processes. This proposed integrated, deep-time climate research program would study how climate responded over Earth's different climate states, examine how climate responds to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and clarify the processes that lead to anomalously warm polar and tropical regions and the impact on marine and terrestrial life. In addition to outlining a research agenda, Understanding Earth's Deep Past proposes an implementation strategy that will be an invaluable resource to decision-makers in the field, as well as the research community, advocacy organizations, government agencies, and college professors and students.
Download or read book Variability of Ocean Heat Uptake written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the temporal variability of ocean heat uptake in observations and in climate models. Previous work suggests that coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (A-OGCMs) may have underestimated the observed natural variability of ocean heat content, particularly on decadal and longer timescales. To address this issue, we rely on observed estimates of heat content from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (WOA-2004) compiled by Levitus et al. (2005). Given information about the distribution of observations in WOA-2004, we evaluate the effects of sparse observational coverage and the infilling that Levitus et al. use to produce the spatially-complete temperature fields required to compute heat content variations. We first show that in ocean basins with limited observational coverage, there are important differences between ocean temperature variability estimated from observed and infilled portions of the basin. We then employ data from control simulations performed with eight different A-OGCMs as a test-bed for studying the effects of sparse, space- and time-varying observational coverage. Subsampling model data with actual observational coverage has a large impact on the inferred temperature variability in the top 300 and 3000 meters of the ocean. This arises from changes in both sampling depth and in the geographical areas sampled. Our results illustrate that subsampling model data at the locations of available observations increases the variability, reducing the discrepancy between models and observations.
Download or read book Comparing Oceanic Heat Uptake in Atmosphere ocean General Circulation Model Transient Climate Change Experiments written by Andrei P. Sokolov and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The transient response of both surface air temperature and deep ocean temperature to an increasing external forcing strongly depends on climate sensitivity and the rate of the heat mixing into the deep ocean, estimates for both of which have large uncertainty. In this paper a method for estimating rates of oceanic heat uptake for coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models from results of transient climate change simulations is described. For models considered in this study, the estimates vary by a factor of 2 1/2. Nevertheless, values of oceanic heat uptake for all models fall in the range implied by the climate record for the last century. It is worth noting that the range of the model values is narrower than that consistent with observations and thus does not provide a full measure of the uncertainty in the rate of oceanic heat uptake.
