Download or read book Secular Mean Reversion and Long Run Predictability of the Stock Market written by Valeriy Zakamulin and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical financial literature documents the evidence of mean reversion in stock prices and the absence of out-of-sample return predictability over periods shorter than 10 years. The goal of this paper is to test the random walk hypothesis in stock prices and return predictability over periods longer than 10 years. Specifically, using 141 years of data, this paper begins by performing formal tests of the random walk hypothesis in the prices of the real S&P Composite Index over increasing time horizons up to 40 years. Even though our results cannot support the conventional wisdom which says that the stock market is safer for long-term investors, our findings speak in favor of the mean reversion hypothesis. In particular, we find statistically significant in-sample evidence that past 15-17 year returns are able to predict future 15-17 year returns. This finding is robust to the choice of data source, deflator, and test statistic. The paper continues by investigating the out-of-sample performance of long-horizon return forecast based on the mean-reverting model. These latter tests demonstrate that the forecast accuracy provided by the mean-reverting model is statistically significantly better than the forecast accuracy provided by the naive historical-mean model. Moreover, we show that the predictive ability of the mean-reverting model is economically significant and translates into substantial performance gains.

Download or read book Unexpected Returns written by Ed Easterling and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Before you read any how-to investment books or seek financial advice, read Unexpected Returns, the essential resource for investors and investment professionals who want to understand how and why the financial markets are not the same now as they were in the 1980s and 1990s. In addition to explaining the fundamentals, this book takes you on a graphic journey through the seasons of the market, tying together economics and finance to explain the stock market's cycles. Using comprehensive full-color charts and graphs, it offers an in-depth exploration of what has changed over the past five years - and what you can do about it to avoid disappointment with your investments. This unique combination of investment science and investment art will enable you to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational view of the current financial markets. Based on years of meticulous research, it provides the sensible conclusions that will drive your future investment choices and give you the confidence to rely on your investment outlook, whatever your financial strategy. Book jacket.

Download or read book Market Timing with Moving Averages written by Valeriy Zakamulin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-17 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive guide to market timing using moving averages. Part I explores the foundations of market timing rules, presenting a methodology for examining how the value of a trading indicator is computed. Using this methodology the author then applies the computation of trading indicators to a variety of market timing rules to analyse the commonalities and differences between the rules. Part II goes on to present a comprehensive analysis of the empirical performance of trading rules based on moving averages.

Download or read book Market Volatility written by Robert J. Shiller and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1992-01-30 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.

Download or read book Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets written by Wing-Keung Wong and published by Mdpi AG. This book was released on 2022-02-17 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.

Download or read book Factor Investing and Asset Allocation A Business Cycle Perspective written by Vasant Naik and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-12-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The John Mauldin Classics Collection written by John Mauldin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-07-19 with total page 696 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Three bestselling works from noted investment advisor John Mauldin in one handy e-book collection Renowned investment advisor and New York Times bestselling author John Mauldin is one of the most well-known and admired economic observers anywhere and a trusted name for millions of investors. In this all-in-one e-book collection, three of Mauldin's biggest selling and most important titles are available together for the first time. In Bull's Eye Investing, Mauldin uses six different perspectives on the markets to prepare investors for a profitable future In Just One Thing, Mauldin offers a shortcut to prosperity with personal guidance from a selection of highly-regarded financial experts, each of whom provide their single most useful piece of advice In Endgame, Mauldin argues that rather than slowly recovering from the current financial crisis, the world economy is entering a period in which governments, rather than households, will experience extreme financial "restructuring"

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.

Download or read book Economic Security Neglected Dimension of National Security written by National Defense University (U S ) and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2011-12-27 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On August 24-25, 2010, the National Defense University held a conference titled “Economic Security: Neglected Dimension of National Security?” to explore the economic element of national power. This special collection of selected papers from the conference represents the view of several keynote speakers and participants in six panel discussions. It explores the complexity surrounding this subject and examines the major elements that, interacting as a system, define the economic component of national security.

Download or read book Equity Valuation Science Art or Craft written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2017-12-27 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The price at which a stock is traded in the market reflects the ability of the firm to generate cash flow and the risks associated with generating the expected future cash flows. The authors point to the limits of widely used valuation techniques. The most important of these limits is the inability to forecast cash flows and to determine the appropriate discount rate. Another important limit is the inability to determine absolute value. Widely used valuation techniques such as market multiples - the price-to-earnings ratio, firm value multiples or a use of multiple ratios, for example - capture only relative value, that is, the value of a firm's stocks related to the value of comparable firms (assuming that comparable firms can be identified). The study underlines additional problems when it comes to valuing IPOs and private equity: Both are sensitive to the timing of the offer, suffer from information asymmetry, and are more subject to behavioral elements than is the case for shares of listed firms. In the case of IPOs in particular, the authors discuss how communication strategies and media hype play an important role in the IPO valuation/pricing process.

Download or read book Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists written by Raghuram Rajan and published by Crown Currency. This book was released on 2003-02-18 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capitalism’s biggest problem is the executive in pinstripes who extols the virtues of competitive markets with every breath while attempting to extinguish them with every action. Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists is a groundbreaking book that will radically change our understanding of the capitalist system, particularly the role of financial markets. They are the catalyst for inspiring human ingenuity and spreading prosperity. The perception of many, especially in the wake of never-ending corporate scandals, is that financial markets are parasitic institutions that feed off the blood, sweat, and tears of the rest of us. The reality is far different. •Vibrant financial markets threaten the sclerotic corporate establishment and increase corporate mobility and opportunity. They are the reason why entrepreneurship flourishes and companies like The Home Depot and Wal-Mart—mere fly specks a quarter of a century ago—have surged as they have. •They mean personal freedom and economic development for more people. Throughout history, and in most of the world today, the record is one of financial oppression. Elites restrict access to capital and severely limit not only general economic development but that of individuals as well. •Open borders help check the political and economic elites and preserve competitive markets. The greatest danger of the antiglobalization movement is that it will keep the rich rich and the poor poor. Globalization forces countries to do what is necessary to make their economies productive, not what is best for incumbent elites. Open borders limit the ability of domestic politics to close down competition and to retard financial and economic growth. •Markets are especially susceptible in economic downturns when the establishment can exploit public anger to restrict competition and access to capital. While markets must be free to practice “creative destruction,” Rajan and Zingales demonstrate the political and economic importance of a sustainable distribution of wealth and a baseline safety net. Capitalism needs a heart for its own good! There are no iron laws of economics that condemn countries like Bangladesh to perpetual poverty or the United States to perpetual prosperity. The early years of the twentieth century saw vibrant, open financial markets that were creating widespread prosperity. Then came the “Great Reversal” during the Great Depression. It can—and will—happen again, unless there is greater understanding of what markets do, who benefits, and who really wants to either limit them or shut them down. Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists breaks free of traditional ideological arguments of the right and left and points to a new way of understanding and spreading the extraordinary wealth-generating capabilities of capitalism.

Download or read book Deep Value written by Tobias E. Carlisle and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-08-18 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic climate is ripe for another golden age of shareholder activism Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations is a must-read exploration of deep value investment strategy, describing the evolution of the theories of valuation and shareholder activism from Graham to Icahn and beyond. The book combines engaging anecdotes with industry research to illustrate the principles and methods of this complex strategy, and explains the reasoning behind seemingly incomprehensible activist maneuvers. Written by an active value investor, Deep Value provides an insider's perspective on shareholder activist strategies in a format accessible to both professional investors and laypeople. The Deep Value investment philosophy as described by Graham initially identified targets by their discount to liquidation value. This approach was extremely effective, but those opportunities are few and far between in the modern market, forcing activists to adapt. Current activists assess value from a much broader palate, and exploit a much wider range of tools to achieve their goals. Deep Value enumerates and expands upon the resources and strategies available to value investors today, and describes how the economic climate is allowing value investing to re-emerge. Topics include: Target identification, and determining the most advantageous ends Strategies and tactics of effective activism Unseating management and fomenting change Eyeing conditions for the next M&A boom Activist hedge funds have been quiet since the early 2000s, but economic conditions, shareholder sentiment, and available opportunities are creating a fertile environment for another golden age of activism. Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations provides the in-depth information investors need to get up to speed before getting left behind.

Download or read book Triumph of the Optimists written by Elroy Dimson and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2002-02-03 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However, as Don Marquis observed, an optimist is someone who never had much experience. The authors of this book extend our experience across regions and across time. They present a comprehensive and consistent analysis of investment returns for equities, bonds, bills, currencies and inflation, spanning sixteen countries, from the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first. This is achieved in a clear and simple way, with over 130 color diagrams that make comparison easy. Crucially, the authors analyze total returns, including reinvested income. They show that some historical indexes overstate long-term performance because they are contaminated by survivorship bias and that long-term stock returns are in most countries seriously overestimated, due to a focus on periods that with hindsight are known to have been successful. The book also provides the first comprehensive evidence on the long-term equity risk premium--the reward for bearing the risk of common stocks. The authors reveal whether the United States and United Kingdom have had unusually high stock market returns compared to other countries. The book covers the U.S., the U.K., Japan, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, and South Africa. Triumph of the Optimists is required reading for investment professionals, financial economists, and investors. It will be the definitive reference in the field and consulted for years to come.

Download or read book The Predictioneer s Game written by Bruce Bueno De Mesquita and published by Random House Trade Paperbacks. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize—winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone). Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.

Download or read book Foundations of High Yield Analysis written by Martin S. Fridson and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2018-08-27 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the advent some 40 years ago of a vibrant primary market for speculative-grade corporate bonds, the high-yield market has evolved from a niche occupied by a small group of specialists into a full-fledged institutional investment category. Asset allocators and portfolio managers now have at their disposal the tools necessary for rigorous investment analysis, including financial statements of the issuers, indexes, trading prices, historical default rates, and time series on such credit factors as liquidity, ratings, and covenant quality. This research brief provides up-to-date techniques for extracting from the extensive data the information that can lead to sound investment decisions.