Download or read book Robustness written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
Download or read book Robust Monetary Policy with Misspecified Models written by Robert J. Tetlow and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores Knightian model uncertainty as a possible explanation of the considerable difference between estimated interest rate rules and optimal feedback descriptions of monetary policy. We focus on two types of uncertainty: (i) unstructured model uncertainty reflected in additive shock error processes that result from omitted-variable misspecifications, and (ii) structured model uncertainty, where one or more parameters are identified as the source of misspecification. For an estimated forward-looking model of the U.S. economy, we find that rules that are robust against uncertainty, the nature of which is unspecifiable, or against one-time parametric shifts, are more aggressive than the optimal linear quadratic rule. However, policies designed to protect the economy against the worst-case consequences of misspecified dynamics are less aggressive and turn out to be good approximations of the estimated rule. A possible drawback of such policies is that the losses incurred from protecting against worst-case scenarios are concentrated among the same business cycle frequencies that normally occupy the attention of policymakers.
Download or read book Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy written by Kai Leitemo and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies how a central bank's preference for robustness against model misspecification affects the design of monetary policy in a New-Keynesian model of a small open economy. Due to the simple model structure, we are able to solve analytically for the optimal robust policy rule, and we separately analyze the effects of robustness against misspecification concerning the determination of inflation, output and the exchange rate. We show that an increased central bank preference for robustness makes monetary policy respond more aggressively or more cautiously to shocks, depending on the type of shock and the source of misspecification.
Download or read book Robust Monetary Policy with the Cost Channel written by Peter Tillmann and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: 1. Introduction - 2. Optimal monetary policy with a cost channel of monetary transmission - 3. Optimal robust policy - 4. Caution, activism, or inactiveness? - 5. Robust policy in a dynamic model - 6. Conclusions.
Download or read book Recursive Macroeconomic Theory written by Lars Ljungqvist and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 1120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A significant new edition of a text that offers both tools and sample applications; extensive revisions and seven new chapters improve and expand upon the original treatment.
Download or read book Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models written by Edward P. Herbst and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-29 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.
Download or read book Interest and Prices written by Michael Woodford and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-12 with total page 805 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure "fiat" currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing. Michael Woodford reexamines the foundations of monetary economics, and shows how interest-rate policy can be used to achieve an inflation target in the absence of either commodity backing or control of a monetary aggregate. The book further shows how the tools of modern macroeconomic theory can be used to design an optimal inflation-targeting regime--one that balances stabilization goals with the pursuit of price stability in a way that is grounded in an explicit welfare analysis, and that takes account of the "New Classical" critique of traditional policy evaluation exercises. It thus argues that rule-based policymaking need not mean adherence to a rigid framework unrelated to stabilization objectives for the sake of credibility, while at the same time showing the advantages of rule-based over purely discretionary policymaking.
Download or read book Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-21 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics written by John Geweke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-29 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian econometric methods have enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent years. Econometricians, empirical economists, and policymakers are increasingly making use of Bayesian methods. This handbook is a single source for researchers and policymakers wanting to learn about Bayesian methods in specialized fields, and for graduate students seeking to make the final step from textbook learning to the research frontier. It contains contributions by leading Bayesians on the latest developments in their specific fields of expertise. The volume provides broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing. It reviews the state of the art in Bayesian econometric methodology, with chapters on posterior simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian nonparametric techniques, and the specialized tools used by Bayesian time series econometricians such as state space models and particle filtering. It also includes chapters on Bayesian principles and methodology.
Download or read book Monetary Policy under Uncertainty written by Oliver Sauter and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-01-31 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Oliver Sauter analyzes three aspects of monetary policy under uncertainty. First he shows that the terms risk and uncertainty are often wrongly used as synonyms despite their different meanings. The second aspect is the proper examination and incorporation of uncertainty into a monetary policy framework. The author undertakes systematization with a closer look at each identified form of uncertainty. Thirdly, he focuses on the quantification of uncertainty from two different perspectives, either from a market perspective or from a central bank perspective.
Download or read book Asset Prices and Monetary Policy written by John Y. Campbell and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-11-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
Download or read book Money Matters written by Alan Arthur Walters and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a tribute to the exceptional contributions of Alan Walters to monetary theory and policy, this book draws together a distinguished cast of international contributors to write about money. In a series of essays they review controversies in monetary economics and debate current policy issues. Combining theoretical analysis with policy evaluation, this book touches on a whole spectrum of issues ranging from monetary union and exchange rate regimes, to credit rationing and policy games. The book focuses on the problems of modeling the effects of monetary and fiscal policy, and setting optimal policies for the future. It concludes with two stimulating panel discussions, one questioning whether the UK should join the Euro and the other discussing the appropriate targets of monetary policy.
Download or read book The Inflation Targeting Debate written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.
Download or read book Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change andwhere private agents and the central bank possess imperfect knowledge about the true structure of the economy. Policymakers follow an interest rate rule aiming to maintain price stability and to minimize fluctuations of unemployment around its natural rate but areuncertain about the economy's natural rates of interest and unemployment and how private agents form expectations. In particular, we consider two models of expectations formation :rational expectations and learning. We show that in this environment the ability to stabilize the real side of the economy is significantly reduced relative to an economy under rational expectations with perfect knowledge. Furthermore, policies that would be optimal under perfect knowledge can perform very poorly if knowledge is imperfect. Efficient policies that take account of private learning and misperceptions of natural rates call for greater policy inertia, a more aggressive response to inflation, and a smaller response to the perceived unemployment gap than would be optimal if everyone had perfect knowledge of the economy. We show that such policies are quite robust to potential misspecification of private sector learning and the magnitude of variation in natural rates.
Download or read book Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks written by Davide Debortoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-21 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Download or read book Monetary Policy Over Fifty Years written by Heinz Herrmann and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-06-02 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The contributions to this prestigious volume describe important developments in monetary economics and monetary policy during the past half century and to draw lessons from this for the future with chapters from Charles Goodhart and Olivier Blanchard.
