Download or read book Probability Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 467 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff (Volume II of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) considers many of the commonly used Descriptive Statistics in the world of estimating and forecasting. It considers values that are representative of the ‘middle ground’ (Measures of Central Tendency), and the degree of data scatter (Measures of Dispersion and Shape) around the ‘middle ground’ values. A number of Probability Distributions and where they might be used are discussed, along with some fascinating and useful ‘rules of thumb’ or short-cut properties that estimators and forecasters can exploit in plying their trade. With the help of a ‘Correlation Chicken’, the concept of partial correlation is explained, including how the estimator or forecaster can exploit this in reflecting varying levels of independence and imperfect dependence between an output or predicted value (such as cost) and an input or predictor variable such as size. Under the guise of ‘Tails of the unexpected’ the book concludes with two chapters devoted to Hypothesis Testing (or knowing when to accept or reject the validity of an assumed estimating relationship), and a number of statistically-based tests to help the estimator to decide whether to include or exclude a data point as an ‘outlier’, one that appears not to be representative of that which the estimator is tasked to produce. This is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Download or read book Probability Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff written by Alan Jones and published by . This book was released on 2024-10-07 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probability Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff (Volume II of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) considers many of the commonly used Descriptive Statistics in the world of estimating and forecasting. It considers values that are representative of the ‘middle ground’ (Measures of Central Tendency), and the degree of data scatter (Measures of Dispersion and Shape) around the ‘middle ground’ values. A number of Probability Distributions and where they might be used are discussed, along with some fascinating and useful ‘rules of thumb’ or short-cut properties that estimators and forecasters can exploit in plying their trade. With the help of a ‘Correlation Chicken’, the concept of partial correlation is explained, including how the estimator or forecaster can exploit this in reflecting varying levels of independence and imperfect dependence between an output or predicted value (such as cost) and an input or predictor variable such as size. Under the guise of ‘Tails of the unexpected’ the book concludes with two chapters devoted to Hypothesis Testing (or knowing when to accept or reject the validity of an assumed estimating relationship), and a number of statistically-based tests to help the estimator to decide whether to include or exclude a data point as an ‘outlier’, one that appears not to be representative of that which the estimator is tasked to produce. This is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Download or read book Risk Opportunity Uncertainty and Other Random Models written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-09-13 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are ‘black boxes’ and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the ‘black box’. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of ‘it must be right!’ Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Download or read book Best Fit Lines Curves written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations (Volume III of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) concentrates on techniques for finding the Best Fit Line or Curve to some historical data allowing us to interpolate or extrapolate the implied relationship that will underpin our prediction. A range of simple ‘Moving Measures’ are suggested to smooth the underlying trend and quantify the degree of noise or scatter around that trend. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed and a simple way to offset the latent disadvantage of most Moving Measure Techniques is provided. Simple Linear Regression Analysis, a more formal numerical technique that calculates the line of best fit subject to defined ‘goodness of fit’ criteria. Microsoft Excel is used to demonstrate how to decide whether the line of best fit is a good fit, or just a solution in search of some data. These principles are then extended to cover multiple cost drivers, and how we can use them to quantify 3-Point Estimates. With a deft sleight of hand, certain commonly occurring families of non-linear relationships can be transformed mathe-magically into linear formats, allowing us to exploit the powers of Regression Analysis to find the Best Fit Curves. The concludes with an exploration of the ups and downs of seasonal data (Time Series Analysis). Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Download or read book Principles Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-09-13 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling (Volume 1 of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) sets the scene of TRACEability and good estimate practice that is followed in the other volumes in this series of five working guides. It clarifies the difference between an Estimating Process, Procedure, Approach, Method and Technique. It expands on these definitions of Approach (Top-down, Bottom-up and ‘Ethereal’) and Method (Analogy, Parametric and ‘Trusted Source’) and discusses how these form the basis of all other means of establishing an estimate. This volume also underlines the importance of ‘data normalisation’ in any estimating procedure, and demonstrates that the Estimating by Analogy Method, in essence, is a simple extension of Data Normalisation. The author looks at simple measures of assessing the maturity or health of an estimate, and offers a means of assessing a spreadsheet for any inherent risks or errors that may be introduced by failing to follow good practice in spreadsheet design and build. This book provides a taster of the more numerical techniques covered in the remainder of the series by considering how an estimator can potentially exploit Benford’s Law (traditionally used in Fraud Detection) to identify systematic bias from third party contributors. It will be a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Download or read book Applications of Networks Sensors and Autonomous Systems Analytics written by Jyotsna Kumar Mandal and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-11-27 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents high-quality research papers presented at International Conference on Applications of Networks, Sensors and Autonomous Systems Analytics (ICANSAA 2020), held during December, 11 – 12, 2020, at JIS College of Engineering, Kalyani, West Bengal, India. The major topics covered are cyber-physical systems and sensor networks, data analytics and autonomous systems and MEMS and NEMS with applications in biomedical devices. It includes novel and innovative work from experts, practitioners, scientists, and decision-makers from academia and industry.
Download or read book Learning Unlearning and Re Learning Curves written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-09-13 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learning, Unlearning and Re-learning Curves (Volume IV of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) focuses in on Learning Curves, and the various tried and tested models of Wright, Crawford, DeJong, Towill-Bevis and others. It explores the differences and similarities between the various models and examines the key properties that Estimators and Forecasters can exploit. A discussion about Learning Curve Cost Drivers leads to the consideration of a little used but very powerful technique of Learning Curve modelling called Segmentation, which looks at an organisation’s complex learning curve as the product of multiple shallower learning curves. Perhaps the biggest benefit is that it simplifies the calculations in Microsoft Excel where there is a change in the rate of learning observed or expected. The same technique can be used to model and calibrate discontinuities in the learning process that result in setbacks and uplifts in time or cost. This technique is compared with other, better known techniques such as Anderlohr’s. Equivalent Unit Learning is another, relative new technique that can be used alongside traditional completed unit learning to give an early warning of changes in the rates of learning. Finally, a Learning Curve can be exploited to estimate the penalty of collaborative working across multiple partners. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists, as well as students of cost engineering.
Download or read book The Prepper s Complete Book of Disaster Readiness written by Jim Cobb and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2013-09-17 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Make sure your survival plan is complete from A to Z with this comprehensive disaster prep guide. When preparing to face a disaster scenario, details can mean the difference between life and death. If you overlook one vital area, fail to stock one supply or underestimate one potential danger, your whole plan could come crashing down. The Prepper’s Complete Book of Disaster Readiness guarantees you won’t miss a thing as you prepare to face the most critical challenges. This bible of prepping shows each and every life-saving step necessary to keep your family alive and well when the world around you is in chaos, including how to: • Efficiently store water and acquire additional fresh water after a collapse • Build a shelf-stable food stock and supplement it by harvesting edible wild plants • Strengthen the security of your home as well as have a back-up bug-out plan • Treat illness and stay healthy when there are no doctors or hospitals • Build a safe and secure survival retreat that allows for long-term off-the-grid living
Download or read book All Things Wise and Wonderful written by E. Janet Warren and published by Wipf and Stock Publishers. This book was released on 2021-01-19 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Covid-19 pandemic provoked many questions. It is human nature to want to know how and why things happen. The sovereign God has created a beautiful, intricate world in which multiple factors interact to cause an event. We are called to properly understand creation, but often fail because we tend to be lazy, fearful, and self-serving. We make judgments based on (often incorrect) assumptions about cause-and-effect relations, and we seek reassuring explanations for both trivial and serious events. Christians have the added complication of figuring out God's role in making things happen. All Things Wise and Wonderful examines what the Bible and Christian theology say about cause and effect, how science views causation in the world, and how human mind-brains judge causation. Using illustrations from everyday life, it offers guidance for Christians to think and act wisely with respect to how and why things happen in creation.
Download or read book Hormones Sex and Happiness written by and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Book of Why written by Judea Pearl and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2018-05-15 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
Download or read book Best Life written by and published by . This book was released on 2006-06 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Best Life magazine empowers men to continually improve their physical, emotional and financial well-being to better enjoy the most rewarding years of their life.
Download or read book Sources of Proof written by Missouri Bar. Committee on Legal Education and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Quantitative Psychology written by Marie Wiberg and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-06-14 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volume represents presentations given at the 87th annual meeting of the Psychometric Society, held in Bologna, Italy at July 11–15, 2022. The proceedings cover a diverse set of psychometric topics, including item response theory, Bayesian models, reliability, latent variable models, causal inference, and cognitive diagnostic models.
Download or read book Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking written by Stephen K. Campbell and published by Courier Corporation. This book was released on 2012-05-14 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nontechnical survey helps improve ability to judge statistical evidence and to make better-informed decisions. Discusses common pitfalls: unrealistic estimates, improper comparisons, premature conclusions, and faulty thinking about probability. 1974 edition.
Download or read book Nuclear Safety written by and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
