Download or read book Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter written by Torbjörn Becker and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-07 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output drops are usually associated with major disruption for the residents of affected countries, both directly and often through ensuing, prolonged growth slowdowns. Using a century of data, we document that output drops are more frequent in countries at a lower stage of economic development. We then turn to a more in-depth analysis of the post-1970 era, examining output drops in a large panel of countries, and systematically relating them to a variety of shocks. We compute the expected cost of each type of shock as a function of the shock's frequency, the likelihood that the shock will be associated with a drop in output, and the size of the output drop. The largest costs are associated with external financial shocks (notably, sudden stops in financial flows) for emerging markets, and with real external shocks (in particular, terms-of-trade shocks) for developing countries.

Download or read book Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low Income Countries written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Download or read book Output Losses in Europe During COVID 19 What Role for Policies written by Mr. Anil Ari and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a decomposition methodology to analyze the factors underlying the differentiated output losses of European countries in 2020. Our findings are fourfold: First, 2020 growth outcomes can be explained by differences in mobility, underlying growth trends, and pre-pandemic country fundamentals. Second, fiscal and monetary policies helped alleviate output losses during the pandemic in all European countries but to a varying extent. Third, shallower recessions in emerging market economies in Europe can be attributed to higher underlying growth and younger populations. Fourth, fiscal multipliers were higher in countries where above-the-line measures accounted for a larger share of the total fiscal package, the size of the total fiscal package was smaller, and inequality and informality were greater, as well as in countries with IMF-supported program during the pandemic.

Download or read book Financial Crises written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-19 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.

Download or read book The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-12-20 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic performance in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) improved substantially over the past twenty years. The past decade was particularly good—for the first time EMDEs spent more time in expansion and had smaller downturns thanadvanced economies. In this paper we document the history of EMDEs’ resilience over the past sixty years, and investigate what factors have been associated with it. We find that their improved performance in recent years is accounted for by both good policies and a lowerincidence of external and domestic shocks—better policies account for about three-fifths of their improved resilience, while less frequent shocks account for the remainder.

Download or read book Global Productivity written by Alistair Dieppe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD

Download or read book Contemporary Issues in Financial Institutions and Markets written by Barbara Casu and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-03-08 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this book is to bring academic work on contemporary issues in financial institutions and markets. The general theme is designed to allow for a wide range of topics covering the diverse nature of academic research in banking and finance. As a consequence the contributions cover a wide range of issues across a broad spectrum, including: bank business models, bank competition and stability, credit card pricing and risk; bank supervision; and international investments. This book was originally published as a special issue of The European Journal of Finance.

Download or read book Fiscal Impacts of Climate Disasters in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies written by Habtamu Fuje and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-15 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate-induced disasters are causing increasingly frequent and intense economic damages, disproportionally affecting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) relative to advanced economies (AEs). However, the impact of various types of climate shocks on output growth and fiscal positions of EMDEs is not fully understood. This research analyzes the macro-fiscal implications of three common climate disasters (droughts, storms, and floods) using a combination of macroeconomic data and comprehensive ground and satellite disaster indicators spanning the past three decades across 164 countries. Across EMDEs, where agriculture tends to be the principal sector, a drought reduces output growth by 1.4 percentage points and government revenue by 0.7 percent of GDP as it erodes the tax bases of affected countries. Meanwhile, likely reflecting limited fiscal space to respond to a disaster, fiscal expenditure does not increase following a drought. A storm drags output growth in EMDEs, albeit with negligible impact on fiscal revenue, but government expenditure increases due to reconstruction and clean-up efforts. We find only limited impact of localized floods on growth and fiscal positions. In contrast, AEs tend to experience negligible growth and fiscal consequences from climate-induced shocks. As these shocks have much more detrimental effects in EMDEs, international support for disaster preparedness and climate change adaptation play a crucial role for these countries to confront climate change.

Download or read book Globalization and Systemic Risk written by Douglas Darrell Evanoff and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2009 with total page 455 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impact of globalization of financial markets is a highly debated topic, particularly in recent months when the issue of globalization and contagion of financial distress has become a focus of intense policy debate. The papers in this volume provide an up-to-date overview of the key issues in this debate. While most of the contributions were prepared after the initial outbreak of the current global turmoil and financial crisis, they identify the relative strengths of the risk diversification and risk transmission processes and examine the empirical evidence to date. The book considers the relative roles of banks, nonbank financial institutions and capital markets in both risk diversification and risk transmission. It then evaluates the current status of crisis resolution in a global context, and speculates where to go from here in terms of understanding, resolution, prevention and public policy.

Download or read book Debt Sustainability in Low Income Countries written by Yasemin Bal Gunduz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-09 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature.

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects January 2019 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-12 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The outlook for the global economy has darkened. Global financing conditions have tightened, industrial production has moderated, trade tensions have intensified, and some large emerging market and developing economies have experienced significant financial market stress. Faced with these headwinds, the recovery in emerging market and developing economies has lost momentum. Downside risks have become more acute and include the possibility of disorderly financial market movements and an escalation of trade disputes. Debt vulnerabilities in emerging market and developing economies, particularly low-income countries, have increased. More frequent severe weather events would raise the possibility of large swings in international food prices, which could deepen poverty. In this difficult environment, it is of paramount importance for emerging market and developing economies to rebuild policy buffers while laying a stronger foundation for future growth by boosting human capital, promoting trade integration, and addressing the challenges associated with informality,

Download or read book The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries Adaptation and Preparedness written by Dongyeol Lee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-10 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics in South Africa written by Eliphas Ndou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-21 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Analysis in Support of IMF Surveillance written by Mr.Charalambos G. Tsangarides and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-09-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exchange rate analysis lies at the center of the IMF's surveillance mandate and policy advice, as well as in the design of IMF-supported programs, and IMF staff are called upon to analyze a wide variety of exchange rate issues in various member countries, both small and large, from the least economically developed to the most advanced, and from those whose currencies circulate only locally to those whose currencies are of global importance. Each year, IMF staff produce dozens of studies on exchange rate issues, some published by the IMF, others in various professional journals or books. This book aims to give a flavor of the topics the IMF staff typically examine under the broad rubric of exchange rate analysis, encompassing several topics: determination and impact of the real exchange rate, assessing competitiveness and the equilibrium real exchange rate in specific countries or country groups, and considerations in the choice of exchange rate regime.

Download or read book The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019 written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2019-07-15 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This year’s report presents evidence that the absolute number of people who suffer from hunger continues to slowly increase. The report also highlights that food insecurity is more than just hunger. For the first time, the report provides evidence that many people in the world, even if not hungry, experience moderate food insecurity as they face uncertainties about their ability to obtain food and are forced to compromise on the quality and/or quantity of the food they consume. This phenomenon is observed globally, not only in low- and middle-income countries but also in high income countries. The report also shows that the world is not on track to meet global nutrition targets, including those on low birthweight and on reducing stunting among children under five years. Moreover, overweight and obesity continue to increase in all regions, particularly among school-age children and adults. The report stresses that no region is exempt from the epidemic of overweight and obesity, underscoring the necessity of multifaceted, multisectoral approaches to halt and reverse these worrying trends. In light of the fragile state of the world economy, the report presents new evidence confirming that hunger has been on the rise for many countries where the economy has slowed down or contracted. Unpacking the links between economic slowdowns and downturns and food insecurity and malnutrition, the report contends that the effects of the former on the latter can only be offset by addressing the root causes of hunger and malnutrition: poverty, inequality and marginalization.

Download or read book Does A Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Exacerbate Growth Volatility An Empirical Investigation written by Mr.Kangni Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-28 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses how regional trade agreements (RTAs) impact growth volatility on a worldwide sample of 170 countries with data spanning the period 1978-2012. Notwithstanding concerns that trade openness through RTAs can heighten exposure to shocks, in particular when it leads to increased product specialization, RTAs through enhanced policy credibility, improved policy coordination, and reduced risk of conflicts can ease growth volatility. Empirical estimations suggest the benefits outweigh the costs as RTAs are consistently associated with lower growth volatility, after controlling for trade openness and other determinants of growth volatility. Furthermore, regression results also suggest that countries that are more prone to shocks are more likely to join a RTA, in particular with countries with relatively less volatile growth, additionally enhancing the stabilization effect.