Download or read book New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Estonia Latvia and Lithuania written by Aurelijus Dabusinskas and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book High Inflation in the Baltics Disentangling Inflation Dynamics and Its Impact on Competitiveness written by Alice Fan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-15 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies and quantifies the drivers of inflation dynamics in the three Baltic economies and assesses the effectiveness of fiscal policy in fighting inflation. It also analyzes the macroeconomic impact of inflation on competitiveness by focusing on the relationship between wages and productivity in the tradeable sector. The results reveal that inflation in the Baltics is largely driven by global factors, but domestic demand matters as well, suggesting that fiscal policy can play a role in containing inflation. Also, there is robust evidence of a long-run (cointegration) relationship between (real) wages in the tradeable (manufacturing) sector and productivity in the Baltics with short-term deviations self-correcting in Estonia and Lithuania only.
Download or read book A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central Eastern and Southeastern European Countries written by Jiri Podpiera and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-14 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region.
Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and Nominal Adjustment in the Baltic States written by Jaan Masso and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Wage Indexation and International Competitiveness in Belgium An Uneasy Coexistence written by André Geis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-02 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Belgium is one of a small group of euro area countries that maintains indexation of wages to inflation as part of its wage setting framework. With intensified price pressures since late 2020 driving inflation to record levels, the tension between compensating workers for purchasing power losses while maintaining international competitiveness have again been highlighted. To improve the performance and viability of the current setup, several avenues of reform could be envisaged. In particular, the scope for excluding price increases in highly volatile components, like energy and food, from the indexation basis should be explored to less the need to restore competitiveness by prolonged periods of real wage restraint. Moreover, options to widen the flexibility of the indexation regime should be contemplated to alleviate the burden of firms at times of large and multiple shocks, thereby also preserving investment and employment. Finally, productivity trends should also be accounted for to capture deviations of labor costs between Belgium and its key export markets.
Download or read book Belgium written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-02 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Belgium: Selected Issues
Download or read book Central and Eastern Europe written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-07 with total page 105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues Paper’s objective is to illustrate economic benefits and costs from euro adoption by reviewing the main arguments and empirical evidence in Central and Eastern Europe: New Member States (NMS). The parameters of the euro adoption debate have shifted. Although countries joining the euro area in the 2000s could expect to benefit from a significant country risk premium, this premium has mostly vanished with the euro crisis. The NMS that have maintained exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy autonomy have, in general, made good use of it. During convergence, nominal currency appreciation supported more balanced growth and restrained credit and asset price booms. It is an open question whether the macroeconomic volatility of the past decade will recur. If divergent growth patterns and volatility were to repeat, euro adoption would constrain macro-policy options, especially for economies with large income gaps and asynchronized business cycles vis-à-vis the euro area. Thus, a large burden would be placed on other policy instruments to safeguard balanced growth, notably counter-cyclical fiscal policy and macro-prudential policies. Structural reforms to boost growth potential and facilitate internal adjustment would also be important.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Download or read book Republic of Lithuania Selected Issues written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-04 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.
Download or read book Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks written by Davide Debortoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-21 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.
Download or read book Kwantitatief bekeken written by and published by Garant. This book was released on 2004 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Download or read book Assessing Dsge Models with Capital Accumulation and Indeterminacy written by Mr.Vadim Khramov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The simulated results of this paper show that New Keynesian DSGE models with capital accumulation can generate substantial persistencies in the dynamics of the main economic variables, due to the stock nature of capital. Empirical estimates on U.S. data from 1960:I to 2008:I show the response of monetary policy to inflation was almost twice lower than traditionally considered, as capital accumulation creates an additional channel of influence through real interest rates in the production sector. Versions of the model with indeterminacy empirically outperform determinate versions. This paper allows for the reconsideration of previous findings and has significant monetary policy implications.
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies written by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-21 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.
Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-06-01 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.
