Download or read book Multi scale Climate Change Modeling Study Over the Greater Horn of Africa written by Jared Heath Bowden and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Keywords: climate change, regional climate modeling, empirical analysis, Greater Horn of Africa.

Download or read book Multi scale Climate Change Modeling Study Over the Greater Horn of Africa written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has been limited regional climate modeling (RCM) studies of climate change over the Greater Horn of Africa because of challenges of modeling tropical precipitation with a limited observational rainfall network. This study customized a RCM model with particular interest in precipitation process using several precipitation data sets for validation. Various convective schemes and micro-physics sensitivities were performed. It was found that the convective scheme of MIT-Emanuel in conjunction with reducing the relative humidity threshold for cloud formation provided the most realistic simulation in terms of spatial distribution, convective partition, rainfall totals and temperature bias when compared with observations. The above RCM customization was run for approximately 40 years to determine the models ability to capture inter-annual variability and the possible climate change fingerprint over the region. The RCM is able to capture the inter-annual variability for all places and seasons for temperature. However, the positive precipitation bias limits the models ability to capture inter-annual variability of precipitation. Despite, the low inter-annual precipitation correlation, the RCM is able to simulate large scale changes in the rainfall pattern associated with the possible climate change fingerprint and the annual precipitation cycle associated with the monsoon. Since the model was able to capture possible changes associated with climate change, the model was downscaled for climate change simulations. The Finite Volume GCM (FVGCM) is used as the lateral boundary forcing for A2 scenario RCM climate change simulations. The FVGCM was compared with the other IPCC models and found to perform within the range during the contemporary climate for circulation, precipitation and temperature. Our analysis concluded that the FVGCM has a cool and wet bias compared to the other GCMs. The RCM future climate simulations, using an A2 emission scenario, show that average temp.

Download or read book Response of Regional Climate to Global Forcing written by Christopher Bryan Skinner and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is now unequivocal evidence that the Earth's climate is changing as a result of human activities. These changes pose a number of potential risks for human and natural systems. Within the Sahel, a semi-arid region of northern Africa that is home to over 50 million people, climate-related stresses on human systems are exacerbated by a limited capacity for climate adaptation and persistent uncertainty in projections of future climate. In this dissertation I utilize a suite of numerical modeling techniques in conjunction with observational data to study the multi-scale interactions that shape rainfall and atmospheric circulation in northern West Africa. This dissertation consists of three chapters. In the first chapter, I use an ensemble of general circulation model experiments to examine the relative roles of different global drivers in shaping projected changes in West African climate. Specifically, I assess the response of precipitation and atmospheric circulation in West Africa to the individual influences of direct atmospheric radiative forcing from projected increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and greenhouse gas-induced sea surface temperature forcing. In the second chapter, I evaluate the simulation of synoptic-scale weather disturbances, known as African easterly waves, in the latest generation of global climate models. African easterly waves serve as an important source of Sahel rainfall and play a critical role in Saharan dust transport and the initiation of the most intense Atlantic basin hurricanes. In this work I identify key reasons for biases in the simulation of African easterly waves, and offer several new insights for improved climate modeling efforts in West Africa. In the third chapter, I explore the response of atmospheric circulation in West Africa to projected increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Models exhibit a robust increase in monsoon strength and African easterly wave activity in response to the pattern of future warming in West Africa. These results suggest the possibility of a number of future climate-related impacts on human and natural systems in West Africa and the greater Atlantic basin.

Download or read book Advances in Hydroinformatics written by Philippe Gourbesville and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-26 with total page 1205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gathers a collection of extended papers based on presentations given during the SimHydro 2017 conference, held in Sophia Antipolis, Nice, France on June 14–16, 2017. It focuses on how to choose the right model in applied hydraulics and considers various aspects, including the modeling and simulation of fast hydraulic transients, 3D modeling, uncertainties and multiphase flows. The book explores both limitations and performance of current models and presents the latest developments in new numerical schemes, high-performance computing, multiphysics and multiscale methods, and better interaction with field or scale model data. It gathers the lastest theoretical and innovative developments in the modeling field and presents some of the most advance applications on various water related topics like uncertainties, flood simulation and complex hydraulic applications. Given its breadth of coverage, it addresses the needs and interests of practitioners, stakeholders, researchers and engineers alike.

Download or read book The Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Water Resources and Agriculture in Africa written by Kenneth M. Strzepek and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes the methods and findings of the hydrological assessment component of the project studying likely impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Africa. The first phase of the study used a version of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called WatBal (Water Balance) applied to gridded data to simulate changes in soil moisture and runoff across the whole continent of Africa rather than to any particular catchment or water resource system. The model inputs were the climate variables of the 1961-90 climatology and physiological parameters (such as soil properties and land use) derived from global datasets for each of the 0.5 degree latitude/longitude cells across the continent. The primary model output comprised a time series (monthly time step) of simulated runoff for all the grid cells for each of the districts in the countries of interest. The second phase of the study extended the hydrology analyses to update the above hydroclimatic series to the year 2000 using updated input data. To ascertain the possible impacts of climate change within the districts being investigated this study used synthetic or GCM-based climate change scenarios as input to the WatBal model. The WatBal model was used to determine the impact of these different scenarios on runoff and actual evaporation and hence flow in the districts under study. The generated hydroclimatic series and scenario analyses were used as inputs into various Ricardian regressions in other analyses measuring likely impacts of climate change on the agricultural economies of Africa.

Download or read book Integrated Modeling of Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Multiscale Ecosystems of Central African Watersheds written by Simon Nampindo and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessment and management of ecosystem services demands diverse knowledge of the system components. Land use change occurring mainly through deforestation, expansion of agriculture and unregulated extraction of natural resources are the greatest challenges of the Congo basin and yet is central to supporting over 100 million people. This study undertook to implement an integrated modeling of multiscale ecosystems of central African watersheds and model the impact of anthropogenic factors on elephant population in Greater Virunga landscape. The study was conducted at varied scales, regional, landscape, and community. Regional study included watershed analysis and hydrological assessment using remotely sensed data implemented in Geographical information System. Species distribution modeling using generalized linear models using presence only and pseudo absence data was also done at regional scale. The major findings were that ecosystem services for the Congo basin are spatially varied and there are significant differences in their distribution of ecosystem services at a subwatershed level three and six and the distribution of endangered and threatened species is more concentrated in the central part of the basin and most of these species occur mainly inside protected areas. Poaching and sustained civil wars were the biggest threat to elephant conservation in the region. Improvement in law enforcement, monitoring, and increasing household incomes for communities living adjacent to protected areas would help to reduce the impact of poaching on elephant population dynamics. Climate change did not show immediate direct impacts on the elephant population, but thermal and latent heat effects could be occurring. A change in habitat, however, showed resulted in an upward trend in elephant population for all age classes. The local communities heavily depend on these ecosystem services for their livelihoods. It is therefore recommended that reasonable financing to strengthen law enforcement and monitoring is done, multiple policy options should be considered in order to maximize ecosystem benefits. Creation of partnerships and research networks need to be promoted. Existing transboundary collaboration initiatives should continue and be supported by the donor community in order to build peace and dram support for wildlife and wild habitat protection.

Download or read book Hydrological Drought written by Lena M. Tallaksen and published by Gulf Professional Publishing. This book was released on 2004 with total page 634 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The majority of the examples are taken from regions where the rivers run most of the year.

Download or read book Resilient Urban Futures written by Zoé A. Hamstead and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-04-06 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book addresses the way in which urban and urbanizing regions profoundly impact and are impacted by climate change. The editors and authors show why cities must wage simultaneous battles to curb global climate change trends while adapting and transforming to address local climate impacts. This book addresses how cities develop anticipatory and long-range planning capacities for more resilient futures, earnest collaboration across disciplines, and radical reconfigurations of the power regimes that have institutionalized the disenfranchisement of minority groups. Although planning processes consider visions for the future, the editors highlight a more ambitious long-term positive visioning approach that accounts for unpredictability, system dynamics and equity in decision-making. This volume brings the science of urban transformation together with practices of professionals who govern and manage our social, ecological and technological systems to design processes by which cities may achieve resilient urban futures in the face of climate change.

Download or read book The Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Water Resources and Agriculture in Africa written by Kenneth M. Strzepek and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes the methods and findings of the hydrological assessment component of the project studying likely impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Africa. The first phase of the study used a version of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called WatBal (Water Balance) applied to gridded data to simulate changes in soil moisture and runoff across the whole continent of Africa rather than to any particular catchment or water resource system. The model inputs were the climate variables of the 1961-90 climatology and physiological parameters (such as soil properties and land use) derived from global datasets for each of the 0.5 degree latitude/longitude cells across the continent. The primary model output comprised a time series (monthly time step) of simulated runoff for all the grid cells for each of the districts in the countries of interest. The second phase of the study extended the hydrology analyses to update the above hydroclimatic series to the year 2000 using updated input data. To ascertain the possible impacts of climate change within the districts being investigated this study used synthetic or GCM-based climate change scenarios as input to the WatBal model. The WatBal model was used to determine the impact of these different scenarios on runoff and actual evaporation and hence flow in the districts under study. The generated hydroclimatic series and scenario analyses were used as inputs into various Ricardian regressions in other analyses measuring likely impacts of climate change on the agricultural economies of Africa.

Download or read book An Introduction to Weather and Climate written by Glenn Thomas Trewartha and published by . This book was released on 1943 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Strategies for Building Resilience against Climate and Ecosystem Changes in Sub Saharan Africa written by Osamu Saito and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-01-30 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book summarizes studies on climate and ecosystem change adaptation and resilience in Africa (CECAR-Africa), a collaboration with the goal of creating an integrated resilience enhancement strategy as a potential model for semi-arid regions across Sub-Saharan Africa by combining climate change and ecosystem change research. The case studies were conducted at multiple scales – local, national, and regional – and incorporate the natural sciences, social sciences and engineering in a transdisciplinary manner while also integrating the needs of local communities. The book chiefly addresses three thematic areas, namely: Forecast and assessment of climate change impacts on agro-ecosystems; Risk assessment of extreme weather hazards and development of adaptive resource management methods; and Implementing capacity development programs for local leaders and practitioners. The collaborative nature of the project and the use of various quantitative and qualitative research technique s and methods – such as field surveys, questionnaires, focus group discussions, land use and cover change analysis, and climate downscaled modeling – make the book truly unique. Especially at a time when both long-term climate change and short-term extreme weather events such as droughts and floods are worsening, this book offers potential approaches to developing an integrated framework for assessing the local ability to cope with floods and droughts, and for enhancing the resilience of farming communities in developing countries, which are the most vulnerable to these changes and extreme weather events. As such, it will be of interest to a wider audience, including academics, professionals, and government officials alike.

Download or read book The Regional Impacts of Climate Change written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II. and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.

Download or read book Observed and Simulated Processes Linked to the Recent Climate Variability and Changes Over the Greater Horn of Africa written by Vincent O Otieno and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main objective of this dissertation is to document characteristics of the processes and mechanisms associated with 20th and 21st century spatio-temporal modes of climate variability and changes over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. This thesis research comprises three major parts. The first part used output from ten Earth System Models (ESMs) from the fifth phase of coupled model intercomparison project to characterize seasonal and annual mean precipitation cycle over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. Each ESM had at least 2 ensemble members. In spite of distributional anomalies of observations, ESM ensemble means were examined on the basis of gridded precipitation data. Majority of the ten ESMs analyzed correctly reproduce the mean seasonal and annual cycle of precipitation for the period 1979–2008 as compared to gridded satellite-derived observations. At the same time our analysis shows significant biases in individual models depending on region and season. Specifically, a modest number of models were able to capture correctly the peaks of bimodal (MAM and OND) and JJAS rainfall while a few either dragged the onset to subsequent months or displaced the locations of seasonal rainfall further north. Nearly all models were in agreement with their representation of the zonal orientation of spatial pattern of the leading EOF rainfall modes; more so, enhanced precipitation over the Indian Ocean and a dipole mode of precipitation pattern are captured in the first and second mode respectively. Further, the corresponding EOF time series of the ESMs rainfall modes were all in phase with observations. However, all models output were positively biased against observations, with large medians and varied range of anomalies. Therefore, caution needs to be taken when choosing models for applications over the region, especially when ensemble means have to be considered. The second part focused on the ESM projections under AR5 Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP), 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios projections of the GHA Climate. Six Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 archive have been used to characterize projected changes in seasonal and annual mean precipitation, temperature and the hydrological cycle by the middle of twenty-first century over the GHA region. There is significant variation among models in projected precipitation anomalies, with some models projecting an average increase as others project a decrease in precipitation during different seasons. The ensemble mean of the ESMs indicates that the GHA region has been experiencing a steady increase in both precipitation and temperature beginning the early 1980s and 1970s respectively in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Going by the ensemble means, temperatures are projected to steadily increase uniformly in all the seasons at a rate of 0.3/0.50C/decade under RCP4.5/8.5 scenarios over northern GHA region leading to an approximate temperature increase of 2/3 0C by the middle of the century. On the other hand, temperatures will likely increase at a rate of 0.3/ 0.4 0C/decade under RCP4.5/8.5 scenarios in both equatorial and southern GHA region leading to an approximate temperature increase of 2/2.5 0C by the middle of twenty first century. Nonetheless, projected precipitation increase varied across seasons and sub-regions. Notably, as precipitation increases, the deficit (E-P) between evaporation (E) and precipitation (P) increased over the years, with a negatively skewed distribution. This generally implies that there is a high likelihood of an increased deficit in local moisture supply. This remarkable change in the general hydrological cycle (i.e. deficit in local moisture) is projected to be also coincident with intensified westerly anomaly influx from the Congo basin into the region. However, better understanding of the detailed changes in hydrological cycle will require comprehensive water budget analyses that require daily or sub-daily variables. The third part was the sub-regional analysis of precipitation and evaporation using high resolution Coordinated Regional experiments (CORDEX) output over the GHA sub region. Over southern GHA region, the number of wet and extreme wet days is projected to increase, expanding the length of a growing season during DJF. However during MAM, the number of wet days is projected to decrease by the middle of the 21st century over southern GHA region. Over equatorial GHA region, the number of wet days is projected to decrease during MAM and OND seasons. This might impact negatively on the agricultural activities in the region. Over the northern GHA region, significant increase/decrease in the number of wet/dry days is projected during September-October-November (SON) season. However, the number of extreme wet days is projected to increase during MAM, JJA and SON seasons while the number of extreme dry days is expected to remain relatively the same in all the seasons. The projected changes in precipitation distribution over the GHA region will have different impact on those sub-regions. For agricultural activities, causes of rain failure might be considered in terms of delayed onset of rains, an early withdrawal, or short but intense rainfall events separated by long dry spells. However, in this research the main focus was on the changes in distribution of rains. Other aspects such as onset and withdrawal and the gap between dry and wet spells also need to be documented for right choice of crop and optimum production.

Download or read book Climate Change and Health written by Walter Leal Filho and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-03-24 with total page 531 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A major objective of this volume is to create and share knowledge about the socio-economic, political and cultural dimensions of climate change. The authors analyze the effects of climate change on the social and environmental determinants of the health and well-being of communities (i.e. poverty, clean air, safe drinking water, food supplies) and on extreme events such as floods and hurricanes. The book covers topics such as the social and political dimensions of the ebola response, inequalities in urban migrant communities, as well as water-related health effects of climate change. The contributors recommend political and social-cultural strategies for mitigate, adapt and prevent the impacts of climate change to human and environmental health. The book will be of interest to scholars and practitioners interested in new methods and tools to reduce risks and to increase health resilience to climate change.

Download or read book Natural Disasters and Adaptation to Climate Change written by Sarah Boulter and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-10-14 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents eighteen case studies of natural disasters from Australia, Europe, North America and developing countries. By comparing the impacts, it seeks to identify what moves people to adapt, which adaptive activities succeed and which fail, and the underlying reasons, and the factors that determine when adaptation is required and when simply bearing the impact may be the more appropriate response. Much has been written about the theory of adaptation and high-level, especially international, policy responses to climate change. This book aims to inform actual adaptation practice - what works, what does not, and why. It explores some of the lessons we can learn from past disasters and the adaptation that takes place after the event in preparation for the next. This volume will be especially useful for researchers and decision makers in policy and government concerned with climate change adaptation, emergency management, disaster risk reduction, environmental policy and planning.

Download or read book Climate Risk in Africa written by Declan Conway and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-01-19 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book highlights the complexities around making adaptation decisions and building resilience in the face of climate risk. It is based on experiences in sub-Saharan Africa through the Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) applied research programme. It begins by dealing with underlying principles and structures designed to facilitate effective engagement about climate risk, including the robustness of information and the construction of knowledge through co-production. Chapters then move on to explore examples of using climate information to inform adaptation and resilience through early warning, river basin development, urban planning and rural livelihoods based in a variety of contexts. These insights inform new ways to promote action in policy and praxis through the blending of knowledge from multiple disciplines, including climate science that provides understanding of future climate risk and the social science of response through adaptation. The book will be of interest to advanced undergraduate students and postgraduate students, researchers, policy makers and practitioners in geography, environment, international development and related disciplines.

Download or read book Shock Waves written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-11-23 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.