Download or read book Monetary Policy Interest Rate Rules and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Ralf Fendel and published by Peter Lang Publishing. This book was released on 2007 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest rate rules play an important role in the empirical analysis of monetary policy as well as in modern monetary theory. Besides giving a comprehensive insight into this line of research the study incorporates the term structure of interest rates into interest rate rules. This is performed analytically as well as empirically. In doing so, state of the art techniques of modern finance for the analysis of the term structure of interest rates are introduced into the macroeconomic concept of interest rate rules. The study implies that from the theoretical perspective term structure effects are an important extension of interest rate rules. From an empirical perspective it shows that including term structure effects in interest rate reaction functions improves our understanding of the interest rate setting of the Deutsche Bundesbank and the European Central Bank.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Rules and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Shu Wu and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During a Zero Interest Rate Period written by Jun Nagayasu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-10 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically evaluates the validity of the term structure of interest rates in a low-interest-rate environment. Applying a time-series method to high-frequency Japanese data, the term-structure model is found to be useful for economic analysis only when interest rates are high. When interest rates are low, the usefulness of the model declines, since the interest spread contains little information that can be used for predicting future economic activity. The term-structure relationship is also weakened by the Bank of Japan's use of interest rate smoothing.

Download or read book The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules written by Josephine M. Smith and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We first document a large secular shift in the estimated response of the entire term structure of interest rates to inflation and output in the United States. The shift occurred in the early 1980s. We then derive an equation that links these responses to the coefficients of the central bank's monetary policy rule for the short-term interest rate. The equation reveals two countervailing forces that help explain and understand the nature of the link and how its sign is determined. Using this equation, we show that a shift in the policy rule in the early 1980s provides an explanation for the observed shift in the term structure. We also explore a shift in the policy rule in the 2002-2005 period and its possible effect on long-term rates.

Download or read book TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATE AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES OECD CASE written by Assist. Prof. Dr. Erkan KARA and published by EĞİTİM YAYINEVİ. This book was released on 2022-11-11 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study is dedicated to investigating the long-run relation between interest rate spreads and economic activities which include industrial production, inflation, and unemployment rate- in OECD countries over the period between2005 and 2015 by using panel data analysis. This study will use the latest panel data models that take structural breaks and cross-sectional dependency into account. Besides using panel data analysis on this issue, this paper will also try to see the effect of new monetary policies that are taking place by major central banks on yield spread and economic activities, especially industrial production. As it is known that, in the post-financial crisis of 2008 period, major central banks such as the Federal Reserve1 (The FED was the first central bank that started to implement new monetary policies just after the collapse of several large-scale investment banks in the U.S), European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, have taken action to stimulate the world economy. Henceforth, not only these major central banks, but also other economies started to lower their policy interest rates soon in conventional way. These policies pushed interest rates almost to zero and since then the rates have remained very low due to lower output level and disinflationary fears.

Download or read book Heterogeneous Information About the Term Structure of Interest Rates Least Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules for Inflation Targeting written by Eric Schaling and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. Learning about the transmission process of monetary policy is introduced by having heterogeneous agents - i.e., the central bank and private agents - who have different information sets about the future sequence of short-term interest rates. We analyse inflation forecast targeting in two environments. One in which the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector interest rate expectations are generated, and one in which the central bank has imperfect knowledge and has to learn the private sector forecasting rule for short-term interest rates. In the case of imperfect knowledge, the central bank has to learn about private sector interest rate expectations, as the latter affect the impact of monetary policy through the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates. Here, following Evans and Honkapohja (2001), the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive OLS) using the Kalman filter. We find that optimal monetary policy under learning is a policy that separates estimation and control. Therefore, this model suggests that the practical relevance of the breakdown of the separation principle and the need for experimentation in policy may be limited.

Download or read book Uncertainty on Monetary Policy and the Expectations Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Carlo A. Favero and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Nominal Interest Rates written by Charles Evans and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Term Structure Evidence on Interest Rate Smoothing and Monetary Policy Inertia written by Glenn D. Rudebusch and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Numerous studies have used quarterly data to estimate monetary policy rules or reaction functions that appear to exhibit a very slow partial adjustment of the policy interest rate. The conventional wisdom asserts that this gradual adjustment reflects a policy inertia or interest rate smoothing behavior by central banks. However, such quarterly monetary policy inertia would imply a large amount of forecastable variation in interest rates at horizons of more than three months, which is contradicted by evidence from the term structure of interest rates. The illusion of monetary policy inertia evident in the estimated policy rules likely reflects the persistent shocks that central banks face.

Download or read book Negative Interest Rate Policy NIRP written by Andreas Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-10 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.

Download or read book Three Essays on the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Hyoung-Seok Lim and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Three chapters focus on the term structure of interest rates. Most Central Banks have recently employed the short term interest rate as a monetary policy instrument in the form of either a Taylor rule or Inflation Targeting. Under this framework, the term structure of interest rates play an important role in determining the effectiveness of monetary policy because economic decisions are based on long-term interest rates. The first two chapters discuss the role of the term structure of interest rates in explaining the behavior of exchange rates. Chapter 1 constructs a theoretical model and Chapter 2 provides an empirical result to supporting this theoretical prediction. Chapter 3 directly estimates the term structure of interest rates from Korean data. The estimated yield curves are used to extract market expectations about the future interest rates path which is essential for forward-looking monetary policy.

Download or read book Essays on the Term Structure of Interest Rates Monetary Policy and Business Cycle written by Tong-hŏn Kim and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Negative Interest Rates written by Luís Brandão Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on negative interest rate policies and covers a broad range of its effects, with a detailed discussion of findings in the academic literature and of broader country experiences.

Download or read book Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond presents the full text of an article entitled "Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy," by Marvin Goodfriend. The article was published in the Summer 1998 issue of "Economic Quarterly." Goodfriend discusses how the term structure of interest rates serves as a link in the transmission of monetary policy and as an indicator of inflation expectations.

Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates Monetary Policy and Macroeconomy written by Fan Dora Xia and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies the relationship between the term structure of interest rates, monetary policy, and macroeconomy. The first chapter, A Parsimonious No-Arbitrage Term Structure Model that is Useful for Forecasting, offers a solution to a well-known puzzle in the term structure literature. The puzzle is that while the level, slope and curvature (or the first three principal components of yields) can quite accurately summarize the cross-section of yields at any point in time, different functions of interest rates and other macroeconomic variables appear to be helpful when the goal is to predict future interest rates. My paper proposes a parsimonious representation to capture this feature in a large dataset. In the first step, I run reduced rank regressions of one-year excess returns on a panel of 131 macroeconomic variables and initial forward rates from 1964 to 2007. I find that a single linear combination of macroeconomic variables and forward rates can predict excess returns on two- to five-year maturity bonds with R-squared up to 0.71. The forecasting factor subsumes the tent-shaped linear combination of forward rates constructed by Cochrane and Piazzesi (2003) and explains excess returns better. In the second step, I estimate a restricted Gaussian Affine Term Structure Model (GATSM) with the level, slope and curvature commonly used by most term structure models along with the forecasting factor. Restrictions are derived based on the fact that while cross-sectional information in yields is spanned by the level, slope and curvature, cross-sectional information in expected excess returns is spanned by the forecasting factor. Compared with a conventional GATSM only including the level, slope and curvature, the restricted four-factor GATSM generates plausible countercyclical term premia. The second and third chapter focus on the recent zero lower bound (ZLB) period. In the second chapter, Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound, coauthored with Cynthia Wu, we employ an approximation that makes a nonlinear shadow rate term structure model (SRTSM) extremely tractable for analysis of an economy operating near the zero lower bound for interest rates. We show that such a model offers a better description of the data compared to the widely used GATSM. Moreover, the model can be used to summarize the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy at the ZLB. Using a simple factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), we show that the shadow rate calculated by our model exhibits similar dynamic correlations with macro variables of interest in the period since 2009 as the fed funds rate did in data prior to the Great Recession. This result gives us a tool for measuring the effects of monetary policy under the ZLB, using either historical estimates based on the fed funds rate or less precisely measured estimates inferred solely from the new data for the shadow rate alone. We show that the Fed has used unconventional policy measures to successfully lower the shadow rate. Our estimates imply that the Fed's efforts to stimulate the economy since 2009 have succeeded in lowering the unemployment rate by 0.13% relative to where it would have been in the absence of these measure. The third chapter, Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies on the Term Structure of Interest Rates, offers a complete characterization of effects of unconventional monetary policies on interest rates by examining policies' impacts on the whole yield curve. I make use of the SRTSM to summarize all interest rates with factors of lower dimension so that I can capture responses of all interest rates in a parsimonious way. By investigating how policy announcements affect the three factors and then the whole forward curve accordingly, I find that during the ZLB period, forward rate with short maturities are constrained, while forward rates with long maturities still respond to policy announcements. Following each easing (tightening) policy announcement, long forward rates would decrease (increase) by 10 basis points on average.

Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macoeconomic Policy written by Stephen J. Turnovsky and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Term Structure Rules for Monetary Policy written by Mariano Kulish and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies two types of interest rate rules that involve long-term nominal interest rates in the context of a New Keynesian model. The first type considers the possibility of adding longer-term rates to the list of variables the central bank reacts to in setting its short-term rate. The second type considers Taylor-type rules that are expressed in terms of interest rates of different maturities, which are operationally equivalent to more complex rules expressed in terms of the short-term rate. It is shown that both types of rules can give rise to a unique rational expectations equilibrium in large regions of the policy-parameter space. The normative evaluation shows that under certain preferences of the monetary authority, policy rules of the second type produce better results than the standard Taylor-type rule.