Download or read book Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow of the Nicolet River as Affected by Snowmelt Using ArcSWAT written by Fei Tang and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: " In the Nicolet River watershed of Southern Quebec, Canada, runoff resulting from snowmelt is responsible for the spring peak flow, which may result in flooding when temperature rises rapidly in a short time. In this study, streamflow modeling for the Nicolet River watershed was conducted, then the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of this basin were studied by comparing the streamflow characteristics of historical and projected future climate data under a wide range of climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was calibrated and validated against the observed streamflow for the period of 1986-1990 and 1991-2000, respectively. The ArcSWAT model was shown to be a reliable tool for simulating the stream flow (PBIAS within 15%, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) > 0.50 and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR)
Download or read book Potential Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow Eastern and Western Slopes of the Sierra Nevada California and Nevada written by Anne E. Jeton and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Climate Change Forecasts on Streamflow in the Nooksack River Basin written by Susan E. Dickerson and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Nooksack River has its headwaters in the North Cascade Mountains and drains an approximately 2300 km2 watershed in northwestern Washington State. The timing and magnitude of streamflow in a high relief, snow-dominated drainage basin such as the Nooksack River basin is strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation. Forecasts of future climate made by general circulation models (GCMs) predict increases in temperature and variable changes to precipitation in western Washington, which will affect streamflow, snowpack, and glaciers in the Nooksack River basin. Anticipating the response of the river to climate change is crucial for water resources planning because municipalities, tribes, and industry depend on the river for water use and for fish habitat. I combined modeled climate forecasts and the Distributed-Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to simulate future changes to timing and magnitude of streamflow in the higher elevations of the Nooksack River, east of the confluence near Deming, Washington. The DHSVM is a physically based, spatially distributed hydrology model that simulates a water and energy balance at the pixel scale of a digital elevation model. I used recent meteorological and landcover data to calibrate and validate the DHSVM. Coarse-resolution GCM forecasts were downscaled to the Nooksack basin following the methods of previous regional studies (e.g., Palmer, 2007) for use as local-scale meteorological input to the calibrated DHSVM. Simulations of future streamflow and snowpack in the Nooksack River basin predict a range of magnitudes, which reflects the variable predictions of the climate change forecasts and local natural variability. Simulation results forecast increased winter flows, decreased summer flows, decreased snowpack, and a shift in timing of the spring melt peak and maximum snow water equivalent. Modeling results for future peak flow events indicate an increase in both the frequency and magnitudes of floods, but uncertainties are high for modeling the absolute magnitudes of peak flows. These results are consistent with previous regional studies which document that temperature-related effects on precipitation and melting are driving changes to snow-melt dominated basins (e.g., Hamlet et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2008; Adam et al., 2009).
Download or read book Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using the Swat Model in a Small Forested Watershed of Salinas River Basin CA written by Ioannis Kamarinas and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Forecasted Climate Change and Glacier Recession on Late Summer Streamflow in the Upper Nooksack River Basin written by Ryan D. Murphy and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Like many watersheds in the North Cascades range of Washington State, USA, streamflow in the Nooksack River is strongly influenced by precipitation and snowmelt in the spring and glacial ice melt in the warmer summer months. With a maritime climate and high relief containing approximately 34km2 of glacial ice, the streamflow response in the Nooksack River basin is sensitive to increases in temperature. Climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for the 21st Century indicate increases in temperature with variable changes to precipitation. The watershed is a valuable freshwater resource for regional municipalities, industry, and agriculture, and provides critical habitat for endangered salmon species. Thus, understanding the impacts of forecasted climate change is critical for water resources planning purposes. I apply publically available statistically derived 1/16 degree gridded surface climate data along with the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) with newly developed coupled dynamic glacier model to simulate hydrologic and glacial processes through the end of the 21st Century. Simulation results project median winter streamflows to more than double by 2075 due to more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, and median summer flows to decrease by more than half with a general shift in peak snowmelt derived spring flows toward earlier in the spring. Glaciers are projected to retreat significantly with smaller glaciers disappearing entirely. Ice melt contribution to streamflow is likely to play an important role in sustaining summer baseflows in the Nooksack River. Glacier melt derived streamflow is projected to increase throughout the first half of the 21st century and decrease in the latter half after glacier ice volume decreases substantially.
Download or read book Climate Change Impacts on Snowmelt Driven Streamflow in the Grand River Watershed written by Amy Dietrich and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is one of the most significant global environmental drivers threatening the quality and quantity of future water resources. Global temperature increases will have significant effects on the hydrologic regime of northern regions due to changes in snowfall and snowmelt. Considerable research has been conducted in western Canada to rigorously quantify snowmelt-driven streamflow processes, however, less focus has been directed towards understanding these processes in eastern Canada and Ontario. In the southern Ontario Grand River Watershed (GRW), snowmelt contributions to streamflow (freshet) make up a significant portion of the annual water yield, and the period of snowmelt is also of key concern for flood mitigation. This thesis aims to quantify historical and projected changes to timing and streamflow during freshet in the Nith River, an unregulated tributary of the Grand River. Climate data (temperature, rainfall, snowfall, and snow proportion) from observations and future scenarios were analyzed to quantify the contributions of climate conditions surrounding the timing and volume of the freshet. The annual timing of snowmelt-driven streamflow was quantified using centre time (CT), and streamflow volumes were quantified by various percentiles of streamflow (Qn) during four periods of the water year (October-December, January-February, March-April, and May-September). Historical trends in streamflow and climate data were examined using hydrometric data (1914-2016) of a stream gauge from the Water Survey of Canada, and climate data (1950-2016) from Environment and Climate Change Canada at two stations. Projected climate data were from an ensemble of models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). A total of nine distinct models ran two scenarios from AR4 for the 2050s; moderate (B1) and high (A1B). These time-slice projections were then used to force the hydrologic model GAWSER to simulate future streamflow data. The results show that CT in the Nith River has advanced by 17 days, on average, from 1914 to 2016 (P=0.036), and the advance is projected to continue as a function of future emissions scenario (approximately 12 days for scenario B1, and 17 days for A1B). Historical CT was weakly negatively correlated with temperature (-0.51, P
Download or read book Modeling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Variability in the North Fork of Elk Creek Experimental Watershed West Central Montana written by Katie Marie Jorgensen and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study hypothesizes the effects of global climate change on the hydrologic regime of West-Central Montana, focusing on the North Fork of Elk Creek, a 6.6 km2 (2.6 mi.2) Experimental Watershed. This is important to understand in snowmelt-dominated watersheds, as it is already well documented by current trends and future climate projections that the natural hydrologic regime is experiencing alterations. There have been shifts in the 20th century of the timing of snowmelt trending towards an earlier spring peak flows and declines in the overall snow water equivalent (Regonda et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2005; Hamlet et al., 2005). The goals for this study are to analyze for significant changes in the timing of important hydrologic events, and determine how discharge throughout the year will be altered in the Elk Creek Experimental Watershed (ECEW). To address these issues, a semi-spatial hydrologic model is employed, and run using current meteorological data and under downscaled climate-change scenarios conditions, under three relevant time periods. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is deterministic and conceptual and is used to generate streamflow in snowmelt dominated basins by the degree-day method (Martinec, 1985). Data is gathered from two SNOTEL sites located within the watershed and streamflow collected directly on the North Fork of Elk Creek. The specific metrics that will be statistically analyzed are mean summer and winter flows, and trends in peak flow and center of mass date timing (Wenger et al., 2009; Regonda et al., 2005). These results can be useful for management purposes because changes in the way water is released from the mountains affects water storage, flooding, and overall watershed resilience such that current practices may need to be accordingly adjusted.
Download or read book Predicting the Impact of Future Climate Change on Streamflow in Chirchik River Basin Using the SWAT Model written by Umidkhon Uzbekov and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Fluvial Processes written by Robert Baidoc and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Watershed models are an important tool in regional planning and conservation efforts. They can provide valuable insight into the potential impacts of different land use changes and future climate change scenarios on water resources, which can lead to better, more informed decision making. Climate impacts, in particular, add a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies as the hydrological cycle is intimately linked with changes in atmospheric temperatures. The main objective of this study is to investigate the extent of long-term climate change on streamflow and stream temperature within an agriculturally defined watershed in Northern Ontario. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was utilized to provide a better understanding of how hydrological processes in the Slate River Watershed will alter in response to long-term climate change scenarios. The SWAT model is a distributed/semi-distributed physically-based continuous model, developed by the USDA for the management of agricultural watersheds, and is currently one of the most popular watershed-based models used in climate change analysis of snowmelt dominated watersheds. Historic flow data was compared to a discharge model that reflected four climate models driven by SRES A1B and A2 through the middle and end of the century. Hydrology modelling was enhanced with stream temperature analysis to gain a comprehensive understanding of the extent of changing climate regimes on the Slate River. A linear regression approach representing a positive relationship between stream temperature and air temperature was used to determine the thermal classification of the Slate River. Our results indicated that the Slate River was well within the warm-water character regime. Unusual high stream temperatures were recorded at mid- August; these were accompanied by low water levels and a lack of riparian vegetative cover at the recording site, providing a possible explanation for such temperature anomalies. The results of the flow discharge modelling supported our hypothesis that tributaries within our ecosystem would experience increasing water stress in a warming climate as the average total discharge from the Slate River decreased in both climate scenarios at the middle and end of the century. Although the lack of accurate subsurface soil data within the study region prevented our discharge model from quantifying the changes in stream discharge, the strong correlation between the observed and simulated flow data as reflected by a 0.92 r2 statistic gave us confidence that discharge from the Slate River will continue to follow a decreasing trend as climate change persists into the future. This study aims to support the future endeavours of hydrologic modelling of watersheds in Northern Ontario by illustrating the current capabilities and limits of climate change analysis studies within this region.
Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow and Stream Temperature in the South Fork of the Stillaguamish River written by Katherine Mary Clarke and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Stillaguamish River in northwest Washington State is an important regional water resource for local agriculture, industry, and First Nations tribes and a critical habitat for several threatened and endangered salmonid species, including the Chinook salmon. The river is currently subject to a temperature total maximum daily load, so it is important to understand how projected climate change will affect future stream temperatures and thus salmon populations. Snowpack is the main contributor to spring and summer streamflow and helps to mitigate stream temperatures as air temperatures rise through the summer in the South Fork of the Stillaguamish River. I used gridded historical meteorological data to calibrate the physically-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model and River Basin Model and then applied downscaled, gridded projected climate data to predict how a changing climate will influence hydrology and stream temperature in the South Fork basin through the end of the 21st century.
Download or read book Application of the Snowmelt Runoff Model to Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Flow in the Upper Athabasca River Basin written by Kyle Alexander Siemens and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The projected rise in global temperatures will shift runoff patterns of snowmelt dominated basins, resulting in earlier spring peak flows and reduced summer runoff. Projections of future runoff are beneficial in preparing for climate change induced changes in streamflow, which may necessitate the construction of additional artificial reservoirs to compensate for the reduced natural storage in the form of snow. In this study, the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) was applied to projecting future runoff in the Upper Athabasca River after assessing its ability to simulate historical flows in the basin. SRM utilizes the data-light degree day approach to modelling snowmelt, assuming melt to be proportional to the temperature above freezing through the degree day factor (DDF). Nevertheless, the model performed very well in simulating flows over both the calibration (2000-2002) and validation (2003-2010) periods. The inclusion of a separate DDF for glaciated areas was found to be essential in accurately simulating over multiple years with varying snow conditions. The increased melt rate of glacial ice due to its lower albedo relative to snow could explain most of the elevation dependence of the DDF. The SRM with glacier component was applied with four future (2070-2080) climate change scenarios representing uncertainty in climate change projections over the basin. The results show a consistent pattern of change in runoff across all scenarios, with substantial increases in May runoff, minor increases over the winter months, and decreased runoff in summer months (June-August). Projected flows are consistent with past modelling studies for the region and with historical trends. In general, the SRM performed very well in simulating historical flows and provides useful runoff projections despite the relative simplicity and few input variables of the model.
Download or read book Modelling Water Quality of the Pike River Watershed Under Four Climate Change Scenarios written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads to northern Lake Champlain, were predicted for the time horizon 2041-2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modified to suit Québec's agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climates simulated with the Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. SWAT was independently calibrated for the period 2001-2003, and then validated for the periods of 2004-2006 and 1980-2000, before inputting the climate scenarios. Potential mean changes predicted by these scenarios were then analysed for the evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, stream flow, sediment yields, and total phosphorus and nitrogen.After calibration, mean annual evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface flow as well as water percolation were found to correspond satisfactorily with the hydrology of the basin. Likewise, monthly predicted stream flow compared reasonably well with observed stream flow. The performance of SWAT in simulating sediment and nutrient yields was clearly improved after calibration but did not always reach standards of acceptability. As for climate change results, only one scenario predicted a significant increase in mean annual stream flow and nutrient loadings. However, when considering shorter time spans, simulations predicted significant changes including a winter stream flow two to three times greater than current stream flow and earlier spring floods. The identified causes are the early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures. In contrast, peak flows in April, as well as summer stream flow, appear to decrease but not always significantly. Nutrient
Download or read book Snowmelt Runoff Modelling written by Bikas Chandra Bhattarai and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2011-07 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effect of global warming on glaciers of Nepal has serious implications for the fresh water reserve. Increase in temperature and precipitation in Himalayas accelerates the process of snow melting as well as enhances flooding event from direct runoff whereas dry season discharge is decreased. The major concern is rapid reduction of glaciers in much of the Himalayan region and shifting upwards of snow line. Very few literatures are available on snowmelt runoff modeling. This book summaries research design and the SRM model and the required data for run this model. It gives the detail outline of temperature index i.e. Positive Degree Day, PDD models, Snow Melt Runoff, SRM simulation and climate change assessment procedures and data preparation for model run. It deals about the data acquisition, its pre-processing and the post-processing such as to make them ready for the input to the simulation model. This book can be useful for the researchers who are interested to investigate the contribution of snow melt in stream flow of snow-fed stream and impact of climate change on water resources.
Download or read book Modelling Water Quality of the Pike River Watershed Under Four Climate Change Scenarios written by Colline Gombault and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads to northern Lake Champlain, were predicted for the time horizon 2041-2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modified to suit Québec's agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climates simulated with the Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. SWAT was independently calibrated for the period 2001-2003, and then validated for the periods of 2004-2006 and 1980-2000, before inputting the climate scenarios. Potential mean changes predicted by these scenarios were then analysed for the evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, stream flow, sediment yields, and total phosphorus and nitrogen.After calibration, mean annual evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface flow as well as water percolation were found to correspond satisfactorily with the hydrology of the basin. Likewise, monthly predicted stream flow compared reasonably well with observed stream flow. The performance of SWAT in simulating sediment and nutrient yields was clearly improved after calibration but did not always reach standards of acceptability. As for climate change results, only one scenario predicted a significant increase in mean annual stream flow and nutrient loadings. However, when considering shorter time spans, simulations predicted significant changes including a winter stream flow two to three times greater than current stream flow and earlier spring floods. The identified causes are the early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures. In contrast, peak flows in April, as well as summer stream flow, appear to decrease but not always significantly. Nutrient delivery to the lake significantly increased in winter and occurred earlier in the year as a consequence of hydrological changes. A three- to four-fold increase in subsurface flow was also observed in winter which may increase nutrient losses through this pathway." --
Download or read book Modeling 21st Century Peak Flows in the Nooksack River Basin in Northwestern Washington State Using Dynamically downscaled Global Climate Model Projections written by Evan A. Paul and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Nooksack River in northwest Washington State provides freshwater for agriculture, municipal, and industrial use and serves as a vital habitat for endangered salmon, a resource that is of cultural and economic importance to the Nooksack Indian Tribe and the surrounding region. Due to the complex topography in the basin and the mild maritime climate of the Puget Sound region, streamflow in the Nooksack River is highly sensitive to fluctuations in air temperature. Global climate models (GCMs) project an increase in air temperatures for the Puget Sound region, and previous modeling within the Nooksack basin projects a reduction in snowpack extent through the 21st century and an increase in winter streamflow magnitude. As more landscape becomes exposed to rain rather than snow and heavy winter precipitation events intensify, peak flows and sediment delivery to streams will likely increase due to rapid runoff, resulting in salmon habitat degradation and increased flood risk. Thus, anticipating the effect of climate change on peak flows is crucial for salmon habitat restoration efforts and flood mitigation planning. To quantify the timing and magnitude of future peak flows, I use a calibrated Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and meteorological forcings from an ensemble of high-emission GCMs dynamically-downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Due to the variability of climate scenarios depicted by GCMs, a range of streamflow and snowpack magnitude changes in the Nooksack River basin are projected by the hydrology simulations. By the end of the 21st century, results indicate a decrease in annual peak snow-water equivalent (-72% to -82%), a shift in the timing of peak snow-water equivalent to approximately one month earlier, an increase in winter flows (+31% to +56%), a decrease in summer flows (-37% to -72%), and the disappearance of the snowmelt derived spring peak in the hydrograph as the basin transitions from transient to rain-dominant. These results are consistent with previous modeling in the Nooksack River basin and other regional climate change studies in the Pacific Northwest and Puget Sound region. Due to more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow and heavy rain events becoming more frequent and intense, future peak flows are projected to increase in magnitude by 34-60% across all flow durations and return periods that were analyzed, with the largest changes occurring in the high relief subbasins. The frequency of high magnitude, flood-inducing peak flows will also increase into the future, lengthening the flood season by approximately three months.
Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in a Sub basin of the Lower Churchill River Labrador written by Amy Pryse-Phillips and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Physically Based Modelling of the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Regime written by Nazmus Shams Sazib and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the implications of climate change on streamflow regime is complex as changes in climate vary over space and time. However, a better understanding of the impact of climate change is required for identifying how stream ecosystems vulnerable to these changes, and ultimately to guide the development of robust strategies for reducing risk in the face of changing climatic conditions. Here I used physically based hydrologic modeling to improve understanding of how climate change may impact streamflow regimes and advance some of the cyberinfrastructure and GIS methodologies that support physically based hydrologic modeling by: (1) using a physically based model to examine the potential effects of climate change on ecologically relevant aspects of streamflow regime, (2) developing data services in support of input data preparation for physically based distributed hydrologic models, and (3) enhancing terrain analysis algorithms to support rapid watershed delineation over large area. TOPNET, a physically based hydrologic model was applied over eight watersheds across the U.S to assess the sensitivity and changes of the streamflow regime due to climate change. Distributed hydrologic models require diverse geospatial and time series inputs, the acquisition and preparation of which are labor intensive and difficult to reproduce. I developed web services to automate the input data preparation steps for a physically based distributed hydrological model to enable water scientist to spend less time processing input data. This input includes terrain analysis and watershed delineation over a large area. However, limitations of current terrain analysis tools are (1) some support only a limited set of specific raster and vector data formats, and (2) all that we know of require data to be in a projected coordinate system. I enhanced terrain analysis algorithms to extend their generality and support rapid, web-based watershed delineation services. Climate change studies help to improve the scientific foundation for conducting climate change impacts assessments, thus building the capacity of the water management community to understand and respond to climate change. Web-based data services and enhancements to terrain analysis algorithms to support rapid watershed delineation will impact a diverse community of researchers involved terrain analysis, hydrologic and environmental modeling.
