Download or read book Measuring Variability and Stationarity of Term Premia for Interest Rate Forecasting written by Ramon P. DeGennaro and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study a series of weekly term premia extracted from U.S. Treasury bill quotations from 1970-1982. We choose this period because it is characterized by high and variable inflation. We find that spot and forward rates are cointegrated and that the series of their differences is stationary. This implies that term premia are also stationary, which has implications for researchers seeking to improve interest rate forecasting. It also rules out several variables as determinants of term premia. We use a variance estimator that is consistent against autoregression to compute variance bounds. This lets us use overlapping observations, thus conserving degrees of freedom and letting us use a finer sampling interval. This estimator shows that both forecast errors and term premia are more variable than reported previously. Those earlier results used periods of low inflation, though, so our results are not necessarily inconsistent with them. Variation in the premium rises with the level.
Download or read book Variability and Stationarity of Term Premia written by Ramon Paul DeGennaro and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models written by Gregory R. Duffee and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard class of affine models produces poor forecasts of future Treasury yields. Better forecasts are generated by assuming that yields follow random walks. The failure of these models is driven by one of their key features: Compensation for risk is a multiple of the variance of the risk. Thus risk compensation cannot vary independently of interest rate volatility. I also describe a broader class of models. These 'essentially affine' models retain the tractability of standard models, but allow compensation for interest rate risk to vary independently of interest rate volatility. This additional flexibility proves useful in forecasting future yields.
Download or read book A New Approach to Measuring Market Expectations and Term Premia written by Xiaoxia Ye and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a novel approach to measure the market expectations and term premia in the term structure of interest rates. Key components of this approach are generic impact measures of state variables in a Gaussian dynamic term structure model. These measures are inherent in a particular state variable regardless of how other state variables are defined within the model. With the help of these measures, the approach gives rise to market expectations predicting yield changes well, and term premia having a legitimate impact on the forward curve. In the empirical analysis, I show the generic impact of the short rate on the yield curve, and historical dynamics of market expectations and term premia. The calibrated model is also employed to study the impacts of recent unconventional monetary policies.Updated term premium estimates are available at https://sites.google.com/site/wisesummer/Home/research/updated_data_for_ye-2015.
Download or read book A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-15 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Expectations written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
Download or read book Journal of Financial Education written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates written by Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-09-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Models and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Steven Strongin and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Information in Financial Asset Prices written by Bank of Canada and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary policy, asset, cosumption, inflation, high frequency data, central bank, stock prices, United States, Canada, interest rate.
Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates written by David Meiselman and published by . This book was released on 1962 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Journal of Economic Dynamics Control written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 1128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book International Journal of Forecasting written by International institute of forecasters and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Term Structure Evidence on Interest Rate Smoothing and Monetary Policy Inertia written by Glenn D. Rudebusch and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
