Download or read book Decomposition of Total Volatility written by Indrani De and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years there has been a lot of debate about volatility, the risk-on/risk-off market with a focus on macro and factor risks. Our research uses the methodology of Campbell et al. (2001) to break down the total volatility in US equities into the three components of Market, Industry and Firm (idiosyncratic risk), and analyzes the trends in their share over 2005-2014. The value addition from active stock selection is greater when idiosyncratic risk becomes a bigger component of total volatility. Our main conclusion is that there is a strong payoff to stock selection even in the post-financial crisis era where markets often think of risk only in terms of risk-on/risk-off. The share of idiosyncratic risk indicating benefits of stock selection decreased a lot during the crisis. It is now at the highest level since the start of the financial crisis, though still much lower than in the pre-crisis years. Total volatility increased ~4X during the crisis and is now lower than pre-crisis. The share of idiosyncratic volatility dipped sharply during the crisis, but remains the largest component (> 60%) of total volatility for an equity investor. The share of market volatility increased ~4X during the crisis to become the largest component. Currently much lower, it is still 2X prior-recession average and higher than the long-term average. Sector volatility has shown a consistent decrease over 2005-2014, and is now the smallest share of total volatility. Average pair-wise stock correlation in the S&P 500 increased ~3X from pre-crisis years through 2010, and is now 2X pre-recession average. The power of the market model in explaining stock returns, increased sharply from 22% pre-crisis to more than 50% in 2010, and has since decreased and remained consistent at ~30%. We also found a strong negative correlation between all components of volatility and contemporaneous GDP growth, with the information decay being fastest for idiosyncratic volatility. Idiosyncratic risk as a share of total stock volatility, though lower than pre-crisis levels, is the highest since the financial crisis. It remains the largest share of total U.S. equity volatility providing a strong justification for stock selection and active management.

Download or read book An Analysis of the Beta Anomaly from an Idiosyncratic Volatility Perspective written by Mark Matern and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-02-21 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2017 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1,7, University of Mannheim, language: English, abstract: The foundation of this contribution will be the verification of the empirical results presented by Liu et al. (2017). We will start by summarizing their findings and explanations in Chapter 2 (Theoretical Background) and build the theoretical foundation upon which the empirical interpretation will rest. We actually view the compilation of the theoretical explanations in an intuitive line of reasoning as our first valuable contribution for our readers, as an understanding of the topic is not as easily to grasp after a first consultation of the papers. In Chapter 3 (Empirical Results) we address the actual calculations and most important summary statistics that will either speak in support or against our interpretations. In 3.1 (Data and Methodology), we present our dataset important technical notes and in Chapter 3.2 (The Beta Anomaly) we summarize and try to replicate the empirical findings of Liu et al. (2017), which will serve as the bedrock of interpretations we will arrive at in following pages. In Chapter 3.3 (Betting-against-Correlation) and its sub-sections on leverage, size and sentiment, we turn our attention to a paper by Asness et al. (2017) which contributed and responded to the findings of Liu et al. (2017), but with often diametrically contradicting views. The reference date of 2017 suggests that both papers belong to a highly new set of research and we believe that by covering those two and adding our own findings we can add significant clarity to actually understand what is going in the space of the beta anomaly. In Chapter 3.4 (BAB vs. BAI), we finalise the empirical analysis by contrasting opposing views on strategies that are designed to exploit the low-beta anomaly and realign the findings that we came across. We will summarize the newly gained insights for our readers in our last Chapter 4.

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Turan G. Bali and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.

Download or read book Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross Section of Expected Returns written by Turan G. Bali and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the cross-sectional relation between idiosyncratic volatility and expected stock returns. The results indicate that (i) data frequency used to estimate idiosyncratic volatility, (ii) weighting scheme used to compute average portfolio returns, (iii) breakpoints utilized to sort stocks into quintile portfolios, and (iv) using a screen for size, price and liquidity play a critical role in determining the existence and significance of a relation between idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of expected returns. Portfolio-level analyses based on two different measures of idiosyncratic volatility (estimated using daily and monthly data), three weighting schemes (value-weighted, equal-weighted, inverse-volatility-weighted), three breakpoints (CRSP, NYSE, equal-market-share), and two different samples (NYSE/AMEX/NASDAQ and NYSE) indicate that there is no robust, significant relation between idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns.

Download or read book Risk Management and Value written by Mondher Bellalah and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 645 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive discussion of the issues related to risk, volatility, value and risk management. It includes a selection of the best papers presented at the Fourth International Finance Conference 2007, qualified by Professor James Heckman, the 2000 Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics, as a high level one. The first half of the book examines ways to manage risk and compute value-at-risk for exchange risk associated to debt portfolios and portfolios of equity. It also covers the Basel II framework implementation and securitisation. The effects of volatility and risk on the valuation of financial assets are further studied in detail. The second half of the book is dedicated to the banking industry, banking competition on the credit market, banking risk and distress, market valuation, managerial risk taking, and value in the ICT activity. With its inclusion of new concepts and recent literature, academics and risk managers will want to read this book. Sample Chapter(s). Introduction (40 KB). Chapter 1: Managing Derivatives in the Presence of a Smile Effect and Incomplete Information (97 KB). Contents: Managing Derivatives in the Presence of a Smile Effect and Incomplete Information (M Bellalah); A Value-at-Risk Approach to Assess Exchange Risk Associated to a Public Debt Portfolio: The Case of a Small Developing Economy (W Ajili); A Method to Find Historical VaR for Portfolio that Follows S&P CNX Nifty Index by Estimating the Index Value (K V N M Ramesh); Some Considerations on the Relationship between Corruption and Economic Growth (V Dragota et al.); Financial Risk Management by Derivatives Caused from Weather Conditions: Its Applicability for Trkiye (T uzkan); The Basel II Framework Implementation and Securitization (M-F Lamy); Stochastic Time Change, Volatility, and Normality of Returns: A High-Frequency Data Analysis with a Sample of LSE Stocks (O Borsali & A Zenaidi); The Behavior of the Implied Volatility Surface: Evidence from Crude Oil Futures Options (A Bouden); Procyclical Behavior of Loan Loss Provisions and Banking Strategies: An Application to the European Banks (D D Dinamona); Market Power and Banking Competition on the Credit Market (I Lapteacru); Early Warning Detection of Banking Distress OCo Is Failure Possible for European Banks? (A Naouar); Portfolio Diversification and Market Share Analysis for Romanian Insurance Companies (M Dragota et al.); On the Closed-End Funds Discounts/Premiums in the Context of the Investor Sentiment Theory (A P C do Monte & M J da Rocha Armada); Why has Idiosyncratic Volatility Increased in Europe? (J-E Palard); Debt Valuation, Enterprise Assessment and Applications (D Vanoverberghe); Does The Tunisian Stock Market Overreact? (F Hammami & E Abaoub); Investor-Venture Capitalist Relationship: Asymmetric Information, Uncertainty, and Monitoring (M Cherif & S Sraieb); Threshold Mean Reversion in Stock Prices (F Jawadi); Households'' Expectations of Unemployment: New Evidence from French Microdata (S Ghabri); Corporate Governance and Managerial Risk Taking: Empirical Study in the Tunisian Context (A B Aroui & F W B M Douagi); Nonlinearity and Genetic Algorithms in the Decision-Making Process (N Hachicha & A Bouri); ICT and Performance of the Companies: The Case of the Tunisian Companies (J Ziadi); Option Market Microstructure (J-M Sahut); Does the Standardization of Business Processes Improve Management? The Case of Enterprise Resource Planning Systems (T Chtioui); Does Macroeconomic Transparency Help Governments be Solvent? Evidence from Recent Data (R Mallat & D K Nguyen). Readership: Academics and risk managers."

Download or read book The negative relationship between the cross section of expected returns and lagged idiosyncratic volatility The German stock market 1990 2016 written by Lasse Homann and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2020-04-23 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2018 in the subject Business economics - Review of Business Studies, grade: 1.0, University of Hannover (Institute of Financial Markets), language: English, abstract: The main goal of this thesis is to examine whether the negative relationship between the cross-section of expected returns and lagged idiosyncratic volatility also can be found for the German stock market for the period of January 1990 through June 2016, by sorting stocks into portfolios on the basis of their idiosyncratic volatility estimates. This procedure follows Ang et al. (2006). Similar to the findings of Ang et al. (2006) for the US stock market this paper shows that there is a significant difference in returns relative to the Fama-French three-factor model, between portfolios of stocks with high and portfolios of stocks with low past idiosyncratic volatility. Although for the period 1990 - 2016 no relationship between lagged idiosyncratic volatility and the cross-section of stock returns has been found, the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle reveals itself for the sub-period 2003 - 2016, when the respective portfolios of stocks with different levels of idiosyncratic volatility are controlled for size.

Download or read book What Drives Idiosyncratic Volatility Over Time written by Sónia R. Sousa and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document the patterns of market-wide and firm-specific volatility in the Portuguese stock market over the 1991-2005 period and test several explanations for the behavior of firm-level idiosyncratic volatility. Unlike previous studies we find no evidence of a statistically significant rise in firm-specific volatility. On the contrary, the ratio of firm-specific risk to total risk slightly decreases. We show that this result stems from the increased role of newly listings by larger privatized companies (that display lower firm-specific risk) and confirms the findings of prior research that claims that changes in idiosyncratic volatility result from changes in the composition of the market.

Download or read book Explorations Into Idiosyncratic Risk written by Nadejda Vozlioublennaia and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Idiosyncratic Volatility Stock Market Volatility and Expected Stock Returns written by Hui Guo and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile written by John Y. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a disaggregated approach to study the volatility of common stocks at the market, industry, and firm levels. Over the period 1962-97 there has been a noticeable increase in firm-level volatility relative to market volatility. Accordingly correlations among individual stocks and the explanatory power of the market model for a typical stock have declined, while the number of stocks needed to achieve a given level of diversification has increased. All the volatility measures move together countercyclically and help to predict GDP growth. Market volatility tends to lead the other volatility series. Factors that may be responsible for these findings are suggested.

Download or read book Price Based Investment Strategies written by Adam Zaremba and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-25 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This compelling book examines the price-based revolution in investing, showing how research over recent decades has reinvented technical analysis. The authors discuss the major groups of price-based strategies, considering their theoretical motivation, individual and combined implementation, and back-tested results when applied to investment across country stock markets. Containing a comprehensive sample of performance data, taken from 24 major developed markets around the world and ranging over the last 25 years, the authors construct practical portfolios and display their performance—ensuring the book is not only academically rigorous, but practically applicable too. This is a highly useful volume that will be of relevance to researchers and students working in the field of price-based investing, as well as individual investors, fund pickers, market analysts, fund managers, pension fund consultants, hedge fund portfolio managers, endowment chief investment officers, futures traders, and family office investors.

Download or read book Idiosyncratic Volatility Conditional Liquidity and Stock Returns written by Juliana Malagon and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is strong evidence showing that stocks with higher levels of idiosyncratic risk provide relatively lower returns than stocks with lower levels of it. This paper points out that this negative idiosyncratic risk - expected returns relation is not pervasive over time, and provides a plausible explanation for its time-varying nature. Our results suggest that following recessions, the conditional pricing of liquidity creates a correction in prices of the high idiosyncratic volatility stocks that persists up to 10 months. As a result, the negative relation between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns is not observed following recessions.

Download or read book Idiosyncratic Volatility written by Tom Aabo and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the market efficiency implications of firm-specific return variation measured by absolute idiosyncratic volatility. We find that the absolute idiosyncratic volatility (the variance of the residual from an asset-pricing model) displays a positive and robust relationship to mispricing (based on both accounting information and alternatively abnormal stock returns). Thus, we find that larger values of absolute idiosyncratic volatility reflect an increasing role of noise traders. Previous literature has produced similar - or opposing - results. We deepen our understanding of the reasons for the lack of consensus in the previous literature by investigating the interaction between market volatility, idiosyncratic volatility, and R-squared. Thus, we show that 1) market volatility by itself is associated with mispricing, 2) absolute idiosyncratic volatility is associated with mispricing even when controlling for market volatility, 3) the strength of the association between absolute idiosyncratic volatility and mispricing depends on the level of market volatility, and 4) absolute and relative measures of idiosyncratic volatility have opposing associations with mispricing.

Download or read book Investigating the Behavior of Idiosyncratic Volatility written by Yexiao Xu and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the behavior of idiosyncratic volatility for the post war period. Using aggregate idiosyncratic volatility statistics constructed from the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model, we find that the volatility of individual stocks appears to have increased over time. This trend is not solely attributed to the increasing prominence of the NASDAQ market. We go on to suggest that the idiosyncratic volatility of individual stocks is associated with the degree to which their shares are owned by financial institutions. Finally, we show that idiosyncratic volatility is also positively related to expected earning growth.

Download or read book Idiosyncratic Volatility and Stock Returns written by Kuntara Pukthuanthong and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical evidences regarding the association of idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns are inconsistent with the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) which implies that idiosyncratic risk should not be priced because it would be fully eliminated through diversification. Using estimated-EGARCH conditional idiosyncratic volatility of individual stocks across 36 countries from 1973 to 2007, we find that idiosyncratic risk is priced on a significantly positive risk premium for stock returns. The evidence is statistically and economically significant. It overwhelmingly supports the prediction of existing theories that idiosyncratic risk is positively related to expected returns.

Download or read book High Idiosyncratic Volatility and Low Returns written by Andrew Ang and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stocks with recent past high idiosyncratic volatility have low future average returns around the world. Across 23 developed markets, the difference in average returns between the extreme quintile portfolios sorted on idiosyncratic volatility is -1.31% per month, after controlling for world market, size, and value factors. The effect is individually significant in each G7 country. In the U.S., we rule out explanations based on trading frictions, information dissemination, and higher moments. There is strong comovement in the low returns to high idiosyncratic volatility stocks across countries, suggesting that broad, not easily diversifiable, factors may lie behind this phenomenon.

Download or read book Separating Up from Down written by Laura Frieder and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The finding that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility tend to have low future returns has been dubbed an empirical anomaly in the finance literature. We seek to understand this puzzle by separating the upside volatility associated with positive idiosyncratic returns from the downside risk associated with negative idiosyncratic returns. We find that downside risk is not inversely related to future stock returns, thus easing the concern that the empirical anomaly is a mispricing of risk. Rather, our results suggest that it is upside volatility that drives the inverse idiosyncratic volatility and return relation. We further examine whether the relation of future returns with downside and upside volatility accords with investor underreaction to bad news and overreaction to good news. Finally, we show that momentum strategies may be enhanced by taking into account stocks' upside volatility.