Download or read book Identifying Threshold Effects in Credit Risk Stress Testing written by Jose Giancarlo Gasha and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2004-08-01 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using data from Argentina, Australia, Colombia, El Salvador, Peru, and the United States, we identify three types of threshold effects when assessing the impact of economic activity on nonperforming loans (NPLs). For advanced financial systems showing low NPLs, there is an embedded self-correcting adjustment when NPLs exceed a minimum threshold. For financial systems in emerging markets in Latin America showing higher NPLs, there is instead a magnifying effect once NPLs cross a (higher) threshold. GDP growth apparently affects NPLs only below a certain threshold, which is consistent with observed lower elasticity of credit risk to changes in economic activity in boom periods.

Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.

Download or read book Identifying Threshold Effects in Credit Risk Stress Testing written by Giancarlo Gasha and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing written by Ms.Li L. Ong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-09 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credibility is the bedrock of any crisis stress test. The use of stress tests to manage systemic risk was introduced by the U.S. authorities in 2009 in the form of the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program. Since then, supervisory authorities in other jurisdictions have also conducted similar exercises. In some of those cases, the design and implementation of certainelements of the framework have been criticized for their lack of credibility. This paper proposes a set of guidelines for constructing an effective crisis stress test. It combines financial markets impact studies of previous exercises with relevant case study information gleaned from those experiences to identify the key elements and to formulate their appropriate design. Pertinent concepts, issues and nuances particular to crisis stress testing are also discussed. The findings may be useful for country authorities seeking to include stress tests in their crisis management arsenal, as well as for the design of crisis programs.

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing of the Insurance Sector written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-22 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last decade, stress testing has become a central aspect of the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance work. Recently, more emphasis has also been placed on the role of insurance for financial stability analysis. This paper reviews the current state of system-wide solvency stress tests for insurance based on a comparative review of national practices and the experiences from Fund’s FSAP program with the aim of providing practical guidelines for the coherent and consistent implementation of such exercises. The paper also offers recommendations on improving the current insurance stress testing approaches and presentation of results.

Download or read book Stress Testing and Calibration of Macroprudential Policy Tools written by Lucyna Gornicka and published by . This book was released on 2020-08-14 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a semi-structural model of default risk, which is a function of loan and borrower characteristics, economic conditions, and the regulatory environment. We use this model to simulate bank credit losses for stress-testing purposes and to calibrate borrower-based macroprudential tools. The proposed approach is very flexible and is particularly useful when there is limited history of crisis episodes, when crises bring unanticipated shocks where past tail events offer little guidance and when structural shocks or changes in financial regulations have altered the loan default process. We apply the model to quantify mortgage lending risk in two distinct mortgage markets. For each application, we show a range of modeling adjustments that can be made to capture country-specific institutional features. The model uses bank portfolio data broken down by risk bucket and vintage, which enables us to take explicit account of the loan life cycle and to incorporate the housing and economic cycles. This feature facilitates a timely assessment of banks' loss-absorbing capacity and the buildup of systemic risk conditional on policy. It also enables counterfactual analysis and the evaluation of macroprudential policy interventions.

Download or read book Into the Great Unknown written by Ms.Li L. Ong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stress testing has become the risk management tool du jour in the wake of the global financial crisis. In countries where the information reported by financial institutions is considered to be of sufficiently good quality, and supervisory and regulatory standards are high, stress tests can be of significant value. In contrast, the proliferation of stress testing in underdeveloped financial systems with weak oversight regimes is fraught with uncertainties, as it is unclear what the results actually represent and how they could be usefully applied. In this paper, problems associated with stress tests using weak data are examined. We offer a potentially more useful alternative, the "breaking point" method, which also requires close coordination with on-site supervision and complemented by other supervisory tools and qualitative information. Excel spreadsheet templates of the stress tests presented in this paper are provided.

Download or read book Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing written by Mr. Christian Schmieder and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a "second-generation" solvency stress testing framework extending applied stress testing work centered on Cihák (2007). The framework seeks enriching stress tests in terms of risk-sensitivity, while keeping them flexible, transparent, and user-friendly. The main contributions include (a) increasing the risk-sensitivity of stress testing by capturing changes in risk-weighted assets (RWAs) under stress, including for non-internal ratings based (IRB) banks (through a quasi-IRB approach); (b) providing stress testers with a comprehensive platform to use satellite models, and to define various assumptions and scenarios; (c) allowing stress testers to run multi-year scenarios (up to five years) for hundreds of banks, depending on the availability of data. The framework uses balance sheet data and is Excel-based with detailed guidance and documentation.

Download or read book Reverse Stress Testing in Banking written by Michael Eichhorn and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2021-05-10 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reverse stress testing was introduced in risk management as a regulatory tool for financial institutions more than a decade ago. The recent Covid-19 crisis illustrates its relevance and highlights the need for a systematic re-thinking of tail risks in the banking sector. This book addresses the need for practical guidance describing the entire reverse stress testing process. Reverse Stress Testing in Banking features contributions from a diverse range of established practitioners and academics. Organized in six parts, the book presents a series of contributions providing an in-depth understanding of: Regulatory requirements and ways to address them Quantitative and qualitative approaches to apply reverse stress testing at different levels – from investment portfolios and individual banks to the entire banking system The use of artificial intelligence, machine learning and quantum computing to gain insights into and address banks’ structural weaknesses Opportunities to co-integrate reverse stress testing with recovery and resolution planning Governance and processes for board members and C-suite executives Readers will benefit from the case studies, use cases from practitioners, discussion questions, recommendations and innovative practices provided in this insightful and pioneering book.

Download or read book Introduction to Applied Stress Testing written by Martin Cihák and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-03 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stress testing is a useful and increasingly popular, yet sometimes misunderstood, method of analyzing the resilience of financial systems to adverse events. This paper aims to help demystify stress tests, and illustrate their strengths and weaknesses. Using an Excel-based exercise with institution-by-institution data, readers are walked through stress testing for credit risk, interest rate and exchange rate risks, liquidity risk and contagion risk, and are guided in the design of stress testing scenarios. The paper also describes the links between stress testing and other analytical tools, such as financial soundness indicators and supervisory early warning systems. Furthermore, it includes surveys of stress testing practices in central banks and the IMF.

Download or read book Loan Portfolio Management written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stress testing the Banking System written by Mario Quagliariello and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-10-15 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stress tests are used in risk management by banks in order to determine how certain crisis scenarios would affect the value of their portfolios, and by public authorities for financial stability purposes. Until the first half of 2007, interest in stress-testing was largely restricted to practitioners. Since then, the global financial system has been hit by deep turbulences, including the fallout from sub-prime mortgage lending. Many observers have pointed out that the severity of the crisis has been largely due to its unexpected nature and have claimed that a more extensive use of stress-testing methodologies would have helped to alleviate the repercussions of the crisis. This book analyses the theoretical underpinnings, as well as the practical aspects, of applying such methodologies. Building on the experience gained by the economists of many national and international financial authorities, it provides an updated toolkit for both practitioners and academics.

Download or read book Recommendations for Central Counterparties written by Group of Ten. Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Credit Risk and Business Cycle Over Different Regimes written by Juri Marcucci and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Risk and the State written by Phillip G. LeBel and published by BrownWalker Press. This book was released on 2021-04-01 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economics demonstrates how markets can serve as remarkably efficient institutions in allocating scarce resources. At the same time, incomplete information generates prices that can lead to a mis-allocation, producing in some cases too little while in others too much of a good. Matters become more complicated when striking a balance is influenced by our perceptions of risk. Here, neuroscience provides insights into which, and what kind of public sector interventions one should consider. While there are many types of risk – political, economic, financial, and environmental as individuals confront any crisis, our perceptions of risk can alter significantly the extent to which we look to public sector intervention as a response. In the short run, crises many be managed through greater public intervention while in the long run, economic fundamentals still drive key decisions, and thus the extent to which a given mix meets a test of political legitimacy. At a time of deepening partisan political divisions, the respective roles of the private and public sectors are once again in flux. These changing roles shape our notions of political legitimacy, especially in the presence of risk. Neuroscience provides critical insights on how we perceive risk, and in turn, make decisions. In this well researched book, economist Phillip LeBel explores the various roles of states and markets, with a focus on how we respond to key issues in managing public health and the environment. In looking at the natural environment and public health, while perceptions of risk may shape short-term responses, the challenge we face over the long term is to craft incentives that promote sustainability and improved health of a society. Basic science always should guide public policy, even in the presence of risk. Reforming public sector institutions for greater transparency and accountability are important key steps in the respective roles of states and markets, for which some suggested changes are put forth here. In the end, personal and social identity depend critically on how we manage information to craft a sustainable, inclusive, and economically viable future. The January 6, 2021 Capitol insurrection in Washington, D.C. reminds us of the need to establish a common understanding of scientific evidence and how this shapes our views of democratic governance. This book comes at a time when such an analysis is needed now more than ever.Economics demonstrates how markets can serve as remarkably efficient institutions in allocating scarce resources. At the same time, incomplete information generates prices that can lead to a mis-allocation, producing in some cases too little while in others too much of a good. Matters become more complicated when striking a balance is influenced by our perceptions of risk. Here, neuroscience provides insights into which, and what kind of public sector interventions one should consider. While there are many types of risk – political, economic, financial, and environmental as individuals confront any crisis, our perceptions of risk can alter significantly the extent to which we look to public sector intervention as a response. In the short run, crises many be managed through greater public intervention while in the long run, economic fundamentals still drive key decisions, and thus the extent to which a given mix meets a test of political legitimacy. At a time of deepening partisan political divisions, the respective roles of the private and public sectors are once again in flux. These changing roles shape our notions of political legitimacy, especially in the presence of risk. Neuroscience provides critical insights on how we perceive risk, and in turn, make decisions. In this well researched book, economist Phillip LeBel explores the various roles of states and markets, with a focus on how we respond to key issues in managing public health and the environment. In looking at the natural environment and public health, while perceptions of risk may shape short-term responses, the challenge we face over the long term is to craft incentives that promote sustainability and improved health of a society. Basic science always should guide public policy, even in the presence of risk. Reforming public sector institutions for greater transparency and accountability are important key steps in the respective roles of states and markets, for which some suggested changes are put forth here. In the end, personal and social identity depend critically on how we manage information to craft a sustainable, inclusive, and economically viable future. The January 6, 2021 Capitol insurrection in Washington, D.C. reminds us of the need to establish a common understanding of scientific evidence and how this shapes our views of democratic governance. This book comes at a time when such an analysis is needed now more than ever.

Download or read book A Guide to IMF Stress Testing written by Ms.Li L Ong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-23 with total page 610 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF has had extensive involvement in the stress testing of financial systems in its member countries. This book presents the methods and models that have been developed by IMF staff over the years and that can be applied to the gamut of financial systems. An added resource for readers is the companion CD-Rom, which makes available the toolkit with some of the models presented in the book (also located at elibrary.imf.org/page/stress-test-toolkit).