Download or read book Financial Openness and Capital Inflows to Emerging Markets In Search of Robust Evidence written by Diego A. Cerdeiro and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-13 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We reassess the connection between capital account openness and capital flows in an empirical framework that is grounded in theory and makes use of previously unexplored variation in the data. We demonstrate how our theory-consistent regressions may overcome some ubiquitous measurement problems in the literature by relying on interaction terms between financial openness and traditional push-pull factors. Within our proposed framework, we ask: what can be said robustly about the effect of capital account restrictions on capital flows? Our results warrant against over-interpreting the existing cross-country evidence as we find very few robust relationships between capital account restrictiveness and various types of capital inflows. Countries with a higher degree of financial openness are more susceptible to some, but by no means all, push and pull factors. Overall, the results are still consistent with a complex set of tradeoffs faced by policymakers, where the ability to shield the domestic economy from volatile capital flow cycles must be weighed against the sources of exogenous risks and potential long run growth effects.

Download or read book The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis written by Swarnali Ahmed Hannan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-10 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a sample of 34 emerging markets and developing economies over the period 2009Q3-2015Q4, the paper employs a panel framework to study the determinants of capital flows, both net and gross, across a wide range of instruments. The baseline regressions are then extended to focus on high and low episodes – quarters with flows one standard deviation above/below mean. Overall, the results suggest that the capital flow slowdown witnessed in recent years is due to a combination of lower growth prospects of recipient countries and worse global risk sentiment. However, the determinants of flows can be considerably different across instruments and across the type of flows considered, net or gross. The sensitivity of certain types of flows, towards push and pull factors, increases during periods of high and low capital flows. Moreover, some variables may not necessarily be significant during normal times, but can be important drivers during such episodes, and vice versa. Indicators like the gap between the U.S. long- and short-term maturity bond yields – not significant during normal times – can be an important driver during high episodes.

Download or read book International Capital Flows and Development written by Mr.Thierry Tressel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does capital flow from rich to poor countries? We revisit the Lucas paradox and explore the role of capital account restrictions in shaping capital flows at various stages of economic development. We find that, when accounting for the degree of capital account openness, the prediction of the neoclassical theory is confirmed: less developed countries tend to experience net capital inflows and more developed countries tend to experience net capital outflows, conditional of various countries’ characteristics. The findings are driven by foreign direct investment, portfolio equity investment, and to some extent by loans to the private sector.

Download or read book Effects of Capital Flow Liberalization written by Tahsin Saadi Sedik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-16 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the experiences of emerging market economies (EMEs) that have liberalized capital flows over the past 15 years with respect to macroeconomic performance and risks to financial stability. The results of the panel data regressions indicate that greater openness to capital flows is associated with higher growth, gross capital flows, and equity returns and with lower inflation and bank capital adequacy ratios. The effects vary depending on thresholds. As a potential application of these findings, the paper explores the possible effects of liberalization on China by applying the coefficients of explanatory variables to the corresponding variables of China in 2012–16.

Download or read book Capital Flows at Risk Taming the Ebbs and Flows written by Mr.R. G Gelos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.

Download or read book Surges written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines why surges in capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) occur, and what determines the allocation of capital across countries during such surge episodes. We use two different methodologies to identify surges in EMEs over 1980-2009, differentiating between those mainly caused by changes in the country's external liabilities (reflecting the investment decisions of foreigners), and those caused by changes in its assets (reflecting the decisions of residents). Global factors-including US interest rates and risk aversion¡-are key to determining whether a surge will occur, but domestic factors such as the country's external financing needs (as implied by an intertemporal optimizing model of the current account) and structural characteristics also matter, which explains why not all EMEs experience surges. Conditional on a surge occurring, moreover, the magnitude of the capital inflow depends largely on domestic factors including the country's external financing needs, and the exchange rate regime. Finally, while similar factors explain asset- and liability-driven surges, the latter are more sensitive to global factors and contagion.

Download or read book Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets A Survey of the Evolving Literature written by Swarnali Ahmed Hannan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-28 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the evolution of gross and net capital flows to emerging market economies and surveys the large literature on the potential drivers. While the capital flow landscape has been shaped by the evolution of both global and country-specific factors, the relative importance of these factors has varied over time and differs depending on the type of capital flows. The findings from the survey of the literature thus underscores the importance of policies in both source and recipient countries in shaping capital flows.

Download or read book Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets written by Erlend Nier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-27 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.

Download or read book The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets written by Maria Sole Pagliari and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-07 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.

Download or read book Real Effects of Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets written by Ms.Deniz O Igan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-12-06 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the association between capital inflows and industry growth in a sample of 22 emerging market economies from 1998 to 2010. We expect more external finance dependent industries in countries that host more capital inflows to grow disproportionately faster. This is indeed the case in the pre-crisis period of 1998–2007, and is driven by debt, rather than equity, inflows. We also observe a reduction in output volatility but this association is more pronounced for equity, rather than debt, inflows. These relationships, however, break down during the crisis, hinting at the importance of an undisrupted global financial system for emerging markets to harness the growth benefits of capital inflows. In line with this observation, we also document that the inflows-growth nexus is stronger in countries with well-functioning banks.

Download or read book The Impact of Gray Listing on Capital Flows An Analysis Using Machine Learning written by Mizuho Kida and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-27 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Action Task Force’s gray list publicly identifies countries with strategic deficiencies in their AML/CFT regimes (i.e., in their policies to prevent money laundering and the financing of terrorism). How much gray-listing affects a country’s capital flows is of interest to policy makers, investors, and the Fund. This paper estimates the magnitude of the effect using an inferential machine learning technique. It finds that gray-listing results in a large and statistically significant reduction in capital inflows.

Download or read book International Capital Flows and Development written by Dennis Reinhardt and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 1990s witnessed several acute currency crises among developing nations that invariably spread to other nearby at-risk countries. These episodes—in Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, and Brazil—were all exacerbated by speculative foreign investments and high-volume movements of capital in and out of those countries. Insufficient domestic controls and a sluggish international response further undermined these economies, as well as the credibility of external oversight agencies like the International Monetary Fund. This timely volume examines the correlation between volatile capital mobility, currency instability, and the threat of regional contagion, focusing particular attention on the emergent economies of Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Together these studies offer a new understanding of the empirical relationship between capital flows, international trade, and economic performance, and also afford key insights into realms of major policy concern.

Download or read book Capital Flows to Emerging Markets written by Philippe Bacchetta and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper analyzes the impact of financial liberalizations and reforms in emerging markets on the dynamics of capital flows to these markets, using a simple model of international investors' behavior. We first show that the gradual nature of liberalizations, combined with the cost of absorbing large inflows in emerging economies, leads to rich dynamics of capital flows and often implies an initial period of overshooting as portfolios adjust. Asset prices will overshoot as well. Second, we show that if investors have incomplete information about new emerging markets, and learn over time, there can be high volatility of capital flows as well as contagion. Finally, we provide numerical estimates of long run capital inflows to emerging market economies and compare them to actual inflows. This gives a good indicator of upcoming crisis situations.

Download or read book Large Capital Flows written by Mr.Alejandro Lopez Mejia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-02-01 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the causes, consequences, and policy responses to large capital flows in several emerging markets. It opens by studying recent patterns of capital flows, and then discusses the causes of capital flows. Emphasis is given to the reasons behind the capital inflow episode in the 1990s, the major reversals, and the volatility observed in these flows. The paper goes on to examine the consequences of capital inflows and the pros and cons of alternative policy responses. It concludes with policy lessons derived from country experiences.

Download or read book Managing Capital Flows written by Masahiro Kawai and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.

Download or read book Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization written by Augusto de la Torre and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006-10-20 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda.