Download or read book Finance Growth and Volatility written by Yan Xu and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I study the time series relation between financial development, economic growth and growth volatility in one unified framework. Relying on a parsimonious panel VAR framework with a panel of 81 countries between 1962 and 2000, I find significant positive Granger causality from financial development to growth and negative Granger causality from financial development to volatility of growth. Financial development accounts for 2.6% of negative forecast error covariance between growth and growth volatility. These empirical regularities, however, are detected in emerging countries only and not in advanced economies. My findings are consistent with the idea that financial development is especially beneficial to countries at the early stage of industrialization. Further, country specific economic environment and structural factors, such as banking concentration degree, proportion of privately held banks, and legal environments, determine the likelihood of both Granger causality from financial development to growth and volatility, and the fraction of covariance between growth and volatility due to financial development.
Download or read book Volatility and Growth written by Philippe Aghion and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2005-07-28 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It has long been recognized that productivity growth and the business cycle are closely interrelated. Yet, until recently, the two phenomena have been investigated separately in the economics literature. This book provides the first consistent attempt to analyze the effects of macroeconomic volatility on productivity growth, and also the reverse causality from growth to business cycles. The authors show that by looking at the economy through the lens of private entrepreneurs, who invest under credit constraints, one can go some way towards explaining persistent macroeconomic volatility and the effects of volatility on growth. Beginning with an analysis of the effects of volatility on growth, the authors argue that the lower the level of financial development in a country the more detrimental the effect of volatility on growth. This prediction is confirmed by cross-country panel regressions. The data also suggests that a fixed exchange rate regime or more countercyclical budgetary policies are growth-enhancing in countries with a lower level of financial development. The former reduce aggregate volatility whereas the latter reduce the negative effects of volatility on long-term productivity-enhancing investment by firms. The book concludes with an investigation into how the interplay between credit constraints and pecuniary externalities is sufficient to generate persistent business cycles and to explain the occurrence of currency crises.
Download or read book Finance and Marcoeconomic Volatility written by Cevdet Denizer and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Countries with more developed financial sectors, experience fewer fluctuations in real per capita output, consumption, and investment growth. But the manner in which the financial sector develops matters. The relative importance of banks in the financial system is important in explaining consumption, and investment volatility. The proportion of credit provided to the private sector, best explains volatility of consumption, and output. The authors generate their main results using fixed-effects estimates with panel data from seventy countries for the years 1956-98. Their general findings suggest that the risk management, and information processing provided by banks, maybe especially important in reducing consumption, and investment volatility. The simple availability of credit to the private sector, probably helps smooth consumption, and GDP.
Download or read book The Rise of Carry The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis written by Tim Lee and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2019-12-13 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Protect yourself from the next financial meltdown with this game-changing primer on financial markets, the economy—and the meteoric rise of carry. The financial shelves are filled with books that explain how popular carry trading has become in recent years. But none has revealed just how significant a role it plays in the global economy—until now. A groundbreaking book sure to leave its mark in the canon of investing literature, The Rise of Carry explains how carry trading has virtually shaped the global economic picture—one of decaying economic growth, recurring crises, wealth disparity, and, in too many places, social and political upheaval. The authors explain how carry trades work—particularly in the currency and stock markets—and provide a compelling case for how carry trades have come to dominate the entire global business cycle. They provide thorough analyses of critical but often overlooked topics and issues, including: •The active role stock prices play in causing recessions—as opposed to the common belief that recessions cause price crashes •The real driving force behind financial asset prices •The ways that carry, volatility selling, leverage, liquidity, and profitability affect the business cycle •How positive returns to carry over time are related to market volatility—and how central bank policies have supercharged these returns Simply put, carry trading is now the primary determinant of the global business cycle—a pattern of long, steady but unspectacular expansions punctuated by catastrophic crises. The Rise of Carry provides foundational knowledge and expert insights you need to protect yourself from what have come to be common market upheavals—as well as the next major crisis.
Download or read book Financial Intermediary Development and Growth Volatility written by Thorsten Beck and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Panel data for 63 countries in 1960-97 reveal no robust relationship between the development of financial intermediaries and the volatility of growth.
Download or read book Revisiting the Link Between Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of financial depth on macroeconomic volatility using a dynamic panel analysis for 110 advanced and developing countries. We find that financial depth plays a significant role in dampening the volatility of output, consumption, and investment growth, but only up to a certain point. At very high levels, such as those observed in many advanced economies, financial depth amplifies consumption and investment volatility. We also find strong evidence that deeper financial systems serve as shock absorbers, mitigating the negative effects of real external shocks on macroeconomic volatility. This smoothing effect is particularly pronounced for consumption volatility in environments of high exposure - when trade and financial openness are high - suggesting significant gains from further financial deepening in developing countries.
Download or read book Volatility and Growth written by Viktoria Hnatkovska and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2004 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Managing Economic Volatility and Crises written by Joshua Aizenman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-10-03 with total page 615 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic volatility has come into its own after being treated for decades as a secondary phenomenon in the business cycle literature. This evolution has been driven by the recognition that non-linearities, long buried by the economist's penchant for linearity, magnify the negative effects of volatility on long-run growth and inequality, especially in poor countries. This collection organizes empirical and policy results for economists and development policy practitioners into four parts: basic features, including the impact of volatility on growth and poverty; commodity price volatility; the financial sector's dual role as an absorber and amplifier of shocks; and the management and prevention of macroeconomic crises. The latter section includes a cross-country study, case studies on Argentina and Russia, and lessons from the debt default episodes of the 1980s and 1990s.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Volatility Institutions and Financial Architectures written by J. Fanelli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-01-17 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The deregulation of domestic financial markets and the capital account in developing countries has frequently been associated with financial turmoil and macro volatility. The book analyzes the experiences of several countries, drawing implications for building development-friendly domestic and international financial architectures.
Download or read book Volatility and Growth written by Norman Loayza and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hnatkovska and Loayza study the empirical, cross-country relationship between macroeconomic volatility and long-run economic growth. They address four central questions:- Does the volatility-growth link depend on country and policy characteristics, such as the level of development or trade openness?- Does this link reflect a statistically and economically significant causal effect from volatility to growth?- Has this relationship been stable over time and has it become stronger in recent decades?- Does the volatility-growth connection actually reveal the impact of crises rather than the overall effect of cyclical fluctuations?The authors find that macroeconomic volatility and long-run economic growth are indeed negatively related. This negative link is exacerbated in countries that are poor, institutionally underdeveloped, undergoing intermediate stages of financial development, or unable to conduct countercyclical fiscal policies. They find evidence that this negative relationship actually reflects the harmful effect from volatility to growth. Furthermore, the authors find that the negative effect of volatility on growth has become considerably larger in the past two decades and that it is mostly due to large recessions rather than normal cyclical fluctuations.This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the effects of volatility.
Download or read book Financial Deepening Terms of Trade Shocks and Growth Volatility in Low Income Countries written by Mr.Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-25 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper contributes to the literature by looking at the possible relevance of the structure of the financial system—whether financial intermediation is performed through banks or markets—for macroeconomic volatility, against the backdrop of increased policy attention on strengthening growth resilience. With low-income countries (LICs) being the most vulnerable to large and frequent terms of trade shocks, the paper focuses on a sample of 38 LICs over the period 1978-2012 and finds that banking sector development acts as a shock-absorber in poor countries, dampening the transmission of terms of trade shocks to growth volatility. Expanding the sample to 121 developing countries confirms this result, although this role of shock-absorber fades away as economies grow richer. Stock market development, by contrast, appears neither to be a shock-absorber nor a shock-amplifier for most economies. These findings are consistent across a range of econometric estimators, including fixed effect, system GMM and local projection estimates.
Download or read book How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom-that output volatility and growth are negatively correlated. We reexamine this relationship in the context of globalization-a term typically used to describe the phenomenon of growing international trade and financial integration that has intensified since the mid-1980s. Using a comprehensive new data set, we document that, while the basic negative association between growth and volatility has been preserved during the 1990s, both trade and financial integration significantly weaken this negative relationship. Specifically, we find that, in a regression of growth on volatility and other controls, the estimated coefficient on the interaction between volatility and trade integration is significantly positive. We find a similar, although less significant, result for the interaction of financial integration with volatility.
Download or read book Finance for Growth written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CD-ROM contains: Research and background information for the report.
Download or read book Finance Growth and Volatility written by Siong Hook Law and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Financial Volatility and Real Economic Activity written by Kevin Daly and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-01-15 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published in 1999. The issue of financial volatility, especially since financial deregulation, has given rise to concerns regarding the effects of increased financial volatility on real economic activity. Two issues represent a substantial challenge to financial economists with respect to these concerns. The first relates to the identification of the causes of increased volatility in financial markets. Identification is a first step towards increasing both financial economists' and policy-makers' understanding of the interrelated causes of financial volatility. The second requires linking the effects of increased financial volatility to the real sector of the economy by examining the channels through which financial volatility influences fundamental economic variables. In order to address these two issues, the analysis initially develops and estimates a model which is capable of explaining the financial and business cycle determinates of movements in the conditional volatility of the Australian All Industrials stock market index. Evidence suggests that a significant linkage exists between the conditional volatility of the money supply. Models are then developed to examine how monetary volatility is transmitted to the volatility of financial asset prices, inflation and real output in an open economy. The results indicate that while financial volatility has increased to some extent since the late 1980s, this has been transferred non-uniformly towards increasing volatility of both real and financial activity.
Download or read book Finance and MacRoeconomic Volatility written by Piyapas Tharavanij and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2011-10 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The role of financial development in economic growth and stability has, for many years, been the subject of intense discussion and debate. The mainstream view is that financial development exerts a large positive impact on economic growth. Recent research also finds that both capital markets and banks independently spur growth, and that capital markets provide different financial services from banks. In contrast, theoretical and empirical work on the relationship between financial development and macroeconomic volatility has been relatively scare. Even fewer works have explored the effects of capital markets on volatility. This book investigates these important issues. The overall finding is that countries with more advanced capital markets are characterised by lower output, investment and consumption volatility, less severe business cycle output contractions, lower probability of facing economic downturns and that they spend a smaller proportion of time in recession. This book should be especially useful to a policy maker, an economic professional, or anyone who participates in capital markets.
Download or read book Seeking Growth Under Financial Volatility written by R. Ffrench-Davis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-11-22 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume deals with macroeconomic issues and their relation with economic growth. Frustrating GDP growth has been a lasting feature of Latin American economies since the 1980s. Analyzing the policy measures that were taken in a bid to avoid costly mistakes and recover economic growth, this volume examines existing reforms and suggests areas of policy change to achieve macroeconomics for growth.
