Download or read book Empirical Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-07-04 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A synthesis of the authors' groundbreaking econometric research on automatic model selection, which uses powerful computational algorithms and theory evaluation. Economic models of empirical phenomena are developed for a variety of reasons, the most obvious of which is the numerical characterization of available evidence, in a suitably parsimonious form. Another is to test a theory, or evaluate it against the evidence; still another is to forecast future outcomes. Building such models involves a multitude of decisions, and the large number of features that need to be taken into account can overwhelm the researcher. Automatic model selection, which draws on recent advances in computation and search algorithms, can create, and then empirically investigate, a vastly wider range of possibilities than even the greatest expert. In this book, leading econometricians David Hendry and Jurgen Doornik report on their several decades of innovative research on automatic model selection. After introducing the principles of empirical model discovery and the role of model selection, Hendry and Doornik outline the stages of developing a viable model of a complicated evolving process. They discuss the discovery stages in detail, considering both the theory of model selection and the performance of several algorithms. They describe extensions to tackling outliers and multiple breaks, leading to the general case of more candidate variables than observations. Finally, they briefly consider selecting models specifically for forecasting.

Download or read book Policy Evaluation and Empirical Growth Research written by Steven N. Durlauf and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics written by Jennifer Castle and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2009-04-30 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: David F. Hendry is a seminal figure in modern econometrics. He has pioneered the LSE approach to econometrics, and his influence is wide ranging. This book is a collection of papers dedicated to him and his work. Many internationally renowned econometricians who have collaborated with Hendry or have been influenced by his research have contributed to this volume, which provides a reflection on the recent advances in econometrics and considers the future progress for the methodology of econometrics. Central themes of the book include dynamic modelling and the properties of time series data, model selection and model evaluation, forecasting, policy analysis, exogeneity and causality, and encompassing. The book strikes a balance between econometric theory and empirical work, and demonstrates the influence that Hendry's research has had on the direction of modern econometrics. Contributors include: Karim Abadir, Anindya Banerjee, Gunnar Bårdsen, Andreas Beyer, Mike Clements, James Davidson, Juan Dolado, Jurgen Doornik, Robert Engle, Neil Ericsson, Jesus Gonzalo, Clive Granger, David Hendry, Kevin Hoover, Søren Johansen, Katarina Juselius, Steven Kamin, Pauline Kennedy, Maozu Lu, Massimiliano Marcellino, Laura Mayoral, Grayham Mizon, Bent Nielsen, Ragnor Nymoen, Jim Stock, Pravin Trivedi, Paolo Paruolo, Mark Watson, Hal White, and David Zimmer.

Download or read book Essays on Economic Growth and Cross country Growth Empirics written by Mehmet Nail Eriş and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Perspectives on Econometrics and Applied Economics written by Mark Taylor and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is dedicated to the memory and the achievements of Professor Sir Clive Granger, economics Nobel laureate and one of the great econometricians and applied economists of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. It comprises contributions from leading econometricians and applied economists who knew Sir Clive and interacted with him over the years, and who wished to pay tribute to him as both a great economist and econometrician, and as a great man. This book was originally published as a special issue of Applied Financial Economics.

Download or read book Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank IMF s Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries written by Mr.Andrew Berg and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-03-27 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden (the “debt threshold approach” DTA). The DSF contains a rule for aggregating the information contained in these five different variables which we label the “worst-case aggregator” (WCA) in view of the fact that the DSF considers a breach of any one of the thresholds sufficient to indicate a high risk of debt distress. However, neither the DTA nor the WCA has heretofore been subject to empirical testing. We find that: (1) the DTA loses information relative to a simple proposed alternative; (2) the WCA is too conservative (predicting crises too often) in terms of the loss function used in the DSF; and (3) the WCA is less accurate than some simple proposed alternative aggregators as a predictor of debt distress.

Download or read book Post Walrasian Macroeconomics written by David Colander and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-07-17 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomics is evolving in an almost dialectic fashion. The latest evolution is the development of a new synthesis that combines insights of new classical, new Keynesian and real business cycle traditions into a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that serves as a foundation for thinking about macro policy. That new synthesis has opened up the door to a new antithesis, which is being driven by advances in computing power and analytic techniques. This new synthesis is coalescing around developments in complexity theory, automated general to specific econometric modeling, agent-based models, and non-linear and statistical dynamical models. This book thus provides the reader with an introduction to what might be called a Post Walrasian research program that is developing as the antithesis of the Walrasian DSGE synthesis.

Download or read book IMF Staff papers Volume 46 No 2 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-01-01 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.

Download or read book The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment EBA Methodology written by Rui Mano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-13 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper offers an empirical model of the drivers of the level of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) that is now part of the IMF’s methodology for the assessment of external positions, including exchange rates. It constructs a measure of the level of the REER and it offers a panel regression that considers a large number of cross-sectional and time varying factors, guided by the extensive literature. Its main contribution is to enhance our understanding of the cross-sectional determinants of the level of the REER, while taking into account the time-series drivers. The framework accounts for the much larger cross-sectional variation of the level REER, and can better explain the time series variation of level REER when these are based on GDP-deflators rather than on consumer price indices. The latter suggest there may be merits to broadening the assessments to include such measures, although further analysis is required.

Download or read book International Handbook of Development Economics written by Amitava Krishna Dutt and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2008-01-01 with total page 1179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essays are concise, yet comprehensive, and each essay contains a substantial set of references, which an interested researcher or student could follow up. . . In addition to representing multidisciplinary interactions, this collection encompasses several different perspectives within development economics, so the reader can learn, for example, both about neoclassical approaches and dependency theories in the same volume. This makes the collection unique and all the more valuable. . . This is a very good reference collection, as the individual essays are informative and provide a good overall perspective on the topic that they set out to address. The extensive bibliography at the end of each essay adds further value to this collection. Ashwini Deshpande, Economic and Political Weekly These new volumes impress along two dimensions. First, they highlight important connections between economic development and variables such as culture, warfare, and ethnicity, which are sometimes ignored by mainstream economists. Second, they analyze the economic development experience of different regions such as Africa, Latin America, and East Asia. . . a valuable reference for scholars and practitioners in the field. Highly recommended. H.A. Faruq, Choice This two-volume original reference work provides a comprehensive overview of development economics and comprises contributions by some of the leading scholars working in the field. Authors are drawn from around the world and write on a wide range of topics. After providing an introduction to the subject (by examining issues like the meaning and measurement of development, historical and interdisciplinary approaches, empirical regularities and data problems), the contributors provide a wealth of perspectives on, and analyses of, development economics. They discuss alternative approaches to development, the macroeconomics of growth, factors and sources of economic development (such as capital, labor, entrepreneurship, resources and technology), major sectors of concern (such as agriculture, industry, services and the informal sector) and international issues (such as trade, capital and labor flows and technology transfers). Income distribution and poverty, the state and other institutions, and actual development experiences are explored. The contributors provide analytical contributions, as well as the relation between these contributions and real world and policy issues from a variety of alternative perspectives. Scholars, students, policymakers and other development practitioners will all find this comprehensive reference invaluable.

Download or read book Aid and Growth written by Raghuram Rajan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-06-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effects of aid on growth-- in cross-sectional and panel data--after correcting for the bias that aid typically goes to poorer countries, or to countries after poor performance. Even after this correction, we find little robust evidence of a positive (or negative) relationship between aid inflows into a country and its economic growth. We also find no evidence that aid works better in better policy or geographical environments, or that certain forms of aid work better than others. Our findings, which relate to the past, do not imply that aid cannot be beneficial in the future. But they do suggest that for aid to be effective in the future, the aid apparatus will have to be rethought. Our findings raise the question: what aspects of aid offset what ought to be the indisputable growth enhancing effects of resource transfers? Thus, our findings support efforts under way at national and international levels to understand and improve aid effectiveness.

Download or read book Robustness Tests for Quantitative Research written by Eric Neumayer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-11 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The uncertainty that researchers face in specifying their estimation model threatens the validity of their inferences. In regression analyses of observational data, the 'true model' remains unknown, and researchers face a choice between plausible alternative specifications. Robustness testing allows researchers to explore the stability of their main estimates to plausible variations in model specifications. This highly accessible book presents the logic of robustness testing, provides an operational definition of robustness that can be applied in all quantitative research, and introduces readers to diverse types of robustness tests. Focusing on each dimension of model uncertainty in separate chapters, the authors provide a systematic overview of existing tests and develop many new ones. Whether it be uncertainty about the population or sample, measurement, the set of explanatory variables and their functional form, causal or temporal heterogeneity, or effect dynamics or spatial dependence, this book provides guidance and offers tests that researchers from across the social sciences can employ in their own research.

Download or read book Handbook of Development Economics written by Hollis Burnley Chenery and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1988 with total page 784 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbooks of development economics/ edit. Chenery.-v.1.

Download or read book The Economics of Adjustment and Growth written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 752 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economics of Adjustment and Growth moves the study of macroeconomics for developing economies away from the traditional static approach and toward a more dynamic, growth-oriented framework. Pierre-Richard Agénor presents an analysis of policy issues involved in designing economic adjustment programs in developing countries and structural reform policies aimed at fostering economic growth. Emphasizing the need to take into account the structural features of these countries, his work dwells on the considerable body of analytical research and empirical evidence of the past two decades in academic circles and international organizations. It provides cutting-edge analysis of many current real-world issues, such as financial crises and the role of trade integration in fostering economic growth. Overall the book offers an impressive overview of the macroeconomic and structural adjustment issues facing developing economies today.

Download or read book A Guide to Econometrics written by Peter Kennedy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-02-19 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dieses etwas andere Lehrbuch bietet keine vorgefertigten Rezepte und Problemlösungen, sondern eine kritische Diskussion ökonometrischer Modelle und Methoden: voller überraschender Fragen, skeptisch, humorvoll und anwendungsorientiert. Sein Erfolg gibt ihm Recht.

Download or read book Defense Welfare and Growth written by Steve Chan and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1992-07-02 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 2004. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

Download or read book Double Crossed written by Francine Pascal and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jessica Wakefield is engaged to the love of her life. Sweet Valley High #109.