Download or read book Applied Stochastic Differential Equations written by Simo Särkkä and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-05-02 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With this hands-on introduction readers will learn what SDEs are all about and how they should use them in practice.

Download or read book Stochastic Simulation and Monte Carlo Methods written by Carl Graham and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-07-16 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In various scientific and industrial fields, stochastic simulations are taking on a new importance. This is due to the increasing power of computers and practitioners’ aim to simulate more and more complex systems, and thus use random parameters as well as random noises to model the parametric uncertainties and the lack of knowledge on the physics of these systems. The error analysis of these computations is a highly complex mathematical undertaking. Approaching these issues, the authors present stochastic numerical methods and prove accurate convergence rate estimates in terms of their numerical parameters (number of simulations, time discretization steps). As a result, the book is a self-contained and rigorous study of the numerical methods within a theoretical framework. After briefly reviewing the basics, the authors first introduce fundamental notions in stochastic calculus and continuous-time martingale theory, then develop the analysis of pure-jump Markov processes, Poisson processes, and stochastic differential equations. In particular, they review the essential properties of Itô integrals and prove fundamental results on the probabilistic analysis of parabolic partial differential equations. These results in turn provide the basis for developing stochastic numerical methods, both from an algorithmic and theoretical point of view. The book combines advanced mathematical tools, theoretical analysis of stochastic numerical methods, and practical issues at a high level, so as to provide optimal results on the accuracy of Monte Carlo simulations of stochastic processes. It is intended for master and Ph.D. students in the field of stochastic processes and their numerical applications, as well as for physicists, biologists, economists and other professionals working with stochastic simulations, who will benefit from the ability to reliably estimate and control the accuracy of their simulations.

Download or read book Backward Stochastic Differential Equations written by N El Karoui and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1997-01-17 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the texts of seminars presented during the years 1995 and 1996 at the Université Paris VI and is the first attempt to present a survey on this subject. Starting from the classical conditions for existence and unicity of a solution in the most simple case-which requires more than basic stochartic calculus-several refinements on the hypotheses are introduced to obtain more general results.

Download or read book Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing written by Simo Särkkä and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-09-05 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unified Bayesian treatment of the state-of-the-art filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation algorithms for non-linear state space models.

Download or read book Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods written by Dirk P. Kroese and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-06-06 with total page 627 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive overview of Monte Carlo simulation that explores the latest topics, techniques, and real-world applications More and more of today’s numerical problems found in engineering and finance are solved through Monte Carlo methods. The heightened popularity of these methods and their continuing development makes it important for researchers to have a comprehensive understanding of the Monte Carlo approach. Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods provides the theory, algorithms, and applications that helps provide a thorough understanding of the emerging dynamics of this rapidly-growing field. The authors begin with a discussion of fundamentals such as how to generate random numbers on a computer. Subsequent chapters discuss key Monte Carlo topics and methods, including: Random variable and stochastic process generation Markov chain Monte Carlo, featuring key algorithms such as the Metropolis-Hastings method, the Gibbs sampler, and hit-and-run Discrete-event simulation Techniques for the statistical analysis of simulation data including the delta method, steady-state estimation, and kernel density estimation Variance reduction, including importance sampling, latin hypercube sampling, and conditional Monte Carlo Estimation of derivatives and sensitivity analysis Advanced topics including cross-entropy, rare events, kernel density estimation, quasi Monte Carlo, particle systems, and randomized optimization The presented theoretical concepts are illustrated with worked examples that use MATLAB®, a related Web site houses the MATLAB® code, allowing readers to work hands-on with the material and also features the author's own lecture notes on Monte Carlo methods. Detailed appendices provide background material on probability theory, stochastic processes, and mathematical statistics as well as the key optimization concepts and techniques that are relevant to Monte Carlo simulation. Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods is an excellent reference for applied statisticians and practitioners working in the fields of engineering and finance who use or would like to learn how to use Monte Carlo in their research. It is also a suitable supplement for courses on Monte Carlo methods and computational statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Download or read book Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice written by Arnaud Doucet and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 590 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo methods are revolutionizing the on-line analysis of data in many fileds. They have made it possible to solve numerically many complex, non-standard problems that were previously intractable. This book presents the first comprehensive treatment of these techniques.

Download or read book Statistical Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations written by Mathieu Kessler and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-05-17 with total page 507 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The seventh volume in the SemStat series, Statistical Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations presents current research trends and recent developments in statistical methods for stochastic differential equations. Written to be accessible to both new students and seasoned researchers, each self-contained chapter starts with introductions to th

Download or read book Random Number Generation and Monte Carlo Methods written by James E. Gentle and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-09-14 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo simulation has become one of the most important tools in all fields of science. Simulation methodology relies on a good source of numbers that appear to be random. These "pseudorandom" numbers must pass statistical tests just as random samples would. Methods for producing pseudorandom numbers and transforming those numbers to simulate samples from various distributions are among the most important topics in statistical computing. This book surveys techniques of random number generation and the use of random numbers in Monte Carlo simulation. The book covers basic principles, as well as newer methods such as parallel random number generation, nonlinear congruential generators, quasi Monte Carlo methods, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The best methods for generating random variates from the standard distributions are presented, but also general techniques useful in more complicated models and in novel settings are described. The emphasis throughout the book is on practical methods that work well in current computing environments. The book includes exercises and can be used as a test or supplementary text for various courses in modern statistics. It could serve as the primary test for a specialized course in statistical computing, or as a supplementary text for a course in computational statistics and other areas of modern statistics that rely on simulation. The book, which covers recent developments in the field, could also serve as a useful reference for practitioners. Although some familiarity with probability and statistics is assumed, the book is accessible to a broad audience. The second edition is approximately 50% longer than the first edition. It includes advances in methods for parallel random number generation, universal methods for generation of nonuniform variates, perfect sampling, and software for random number generation.

Download or read book Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations written by Peter E. Kloeden and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The numerical analysis of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) differs significantly from that of ordinary differential equations. This book provides an easily accessible introduction to SDEs, their applications and the numerical methods to solve such equations. From the reviews: "The authors draw upon their own research and experiences in obviously many disciplines... considerable time has obviously been spent writing this in the simplest language possible." --ZAMP

Download or read book Applied Optimal Estimation written by The Analytic Sciences Corporation and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1974-05-15 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book on the optimal estimation that places its major emphasis on practical applications, treating the subject more from an engineering than a mathematical orientation. Even so, theoretical and mathematical concepts are introduced and developed sufficiently to make the book a self-contained source of instruction for readers without prior knowledge of the basic principles of the field. The work is the product of the technical staff of The Analytic Sciences Corporation (TASC), an organization whose success has resulted largely from its applications of optimal estimation techniques to a wide variety of real situations involving large-scale systems. Arthur Gelb writes in the Foreword that "It is our intent throughout to provide a simple and interesting picture of the central issues underlying modern estimation theory and practice. Heuristic, rather than theoretically elegant, arguments are used extensively, with emphasis on physical insights and key questions of practical importance." Numerous illustrative examples, many based on actual applications, have been interspersed throughout the text to lead the student to a concrete understanding of the theoretical material. The inclusion of problems with "built-in" answers at the end of each of the nine chapters further enhances the self-study potential of the text. After a brief historical prelude, the book introduces the mathematics underlying random process theory and state-space characterization of linear dynamic systems. The theory and practice of optimal estimation is them presented, including filtering, smoothing, and prediction. Both linear and non-linear systems, and continuous- and discrete-time cases, are covered in considerable detail. New results are described concerning the application of covariance analysis to non-linear systems and the connection between observers and optimal estimators. The final chapters treat such practical and often pivotal issues as suboptimal structure, and computer loading considerations. This book is an outgrowth of a course given by TASC at a number of US Government facilities. Virtually all of the members of the TASC technical staff have, at one time and in one way or another, contributed to the material contained in the work.

Download or read book Parametric Estimates by the Monte Carlo Method written by G. A. Mikhailov and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2018-11-05 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No detailed description available for "Parametric Estimates by the Monte Carlo Method".

Download or read book Monte Carlo Simulation and Finance written by Don L. McLeish and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-13 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo methods have been used for decades in physics, engineering, statistics, and other fields. Monte Carlo Simulation and Finance explains the nuts and bolts of this essential technique used to value derivatives and other securities. Author and educator Don McLeish examines this fundamental process, and discusses important issues, including specialized problems in finance that Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods can help solve and the different ways Monte Carlo methods can be improved upon. This state-of-the-art book on Monte Carlo simulation methods is ideal for finance professionals and students. Order your copy today.

Download or read book Monte Carlo and Quasi Monte Carlo Methods 2006 written by Alexander Keller and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-12-30 with total page 684 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the refereed proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Scientific Computing, held in Ulm, Germany, in August 2006. The proceedings include carefully selected papers on many aspects of Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods and their applications. They also provide information on current research in these very active areas.

Download or read book Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps in Finance written by Eckhard Platen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-07-23 with total page 868 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In financial and actuarial modeling and other areas of application, stochastic differential equations with jumps have been employed to describe the dynamics of various state variables. The numerical solution of such equations is more complex than that of those only driven by Wiener processes, described in Kloeden & Platen: Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations (1992). The present monograph builds on the above-mentioned work and provides an introduction to stochastic differential equations with jumps, in both theory and application, emphasizing the numerical methods needed to solve such equations. It presents many new results on higher-order methods for scenario and Monte Carlo simulation, including implicit, predictor corrector, extrapolation, Markov chain and variance reduction methods, stressing the importance of their numerical stability. Furthermore, it includes chapters on exact simulation, estimation and filtering. Besides serving as a basic text on quantitative methods, it offers ready access to a large number of potential research problems in an area that is widely applicable and rapidly expanding. Finance is chosen as the area of application because much of the recent research on stochastic numerical methods has been driven by challenges in quantitative finance. Moreover, the volume introduces readers to the modern benchmark approach that provides a general framework for modeling in finance and insurance beyond the standard risk-neutral approach. It requires undergraduate background in mathematical or quantitative methods, is accessible to a broad readership, including those who are only seeking numerical recipes, and includes exercises that help the reader develop a deeper understanding of the underlying mathematics.

Download or read book Monte Carlo Methods and Stochastic Processes written by Emmanuel Gobet and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-09-15 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed from the author’s course at the Ecole Polytechnique, Monte-Carlo Methods and Stochastic Processes: From Linear to Non-Linear focuses on the simulation of stochastic processes in continuous time and their link with partial differential equations (PDEs). It covers linear and nonlinear problems in biology, finance, geophysics, mechanics, chemistry, and other application areas. The text also thoroughly develops the problem of numerical integration and computation of expectation by the Monte-Carlo method. The book begins with a history of Monte-Carlo methods and an overview of three typical Monte-Carlo problems: numerical integration and computation of expectation, simulation of complex distributions, and stochastic optimization. The remainder of the text is organized in three parts of progressive difficulty. The first part presents basic tools for stochastic simulation and analysis of algorithm convergence. The second part describes Monte-Carlo methods for the simulation of stochastic differential equations. The final part discusses the simulation of non-linear dynamics.

Download or read book Accelerating Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inference in dynamical models written by Johan Dahlin and published by Linköping University Electronic Press. This book was released on 2016-03-22 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Making decisions and predictions from noisy observations are two important and challenging problems in many areas of society. Some examples of applications are recommendation systems for online shopping and streaming services, connecting genes with certain diseases and modelling climate change. In this thesis, we make use of Bayesian statistics to construct probabilistic models given prior information and historical data, which can be used for decision support and predictions. The main obstacle with this approach is that it often results in mathematical problems lacking analytical solutions. To cope with this, we make use of statistical simulation algorithms known as Monte Carlo methods to approximate the intractable solution. These methods enjoy well-understood statistical properties but are often computational prohibitive to employ. The main contribution of this thesis is the exploration of different strategies for accelerating inference methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). That is, strategies for reducing the computational effort while keeping or improving the accuracy. A major part of the thesis is devoted to proposing such strategies for the MCMC method known as the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm. We investigate two strategies: (i) introducing estimates of the gradient and Hessian of the target to better tailor the algorithm to the problem and (ii) introducing a positive correlation between the point-wise estimates of the target. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm based on the combination of SMC and Gaussian process optimisation, which can provide reasonable estimates of the posterior but with a significant decrease in computational effort compared with PMH. Moreover, we explore the use of sparseness priors for approximate inference in over-parametrised mixed effects models and autoregressive processes. This can potentially be a practical strategy for inference in the big data era. Finally, we propose a general method for increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates in non-linear state space models by applying a designed input signal. Borde Riksbanken höja eller sänka reporäntan vid sitt nästa möte för att nå inflationsmålet? Vilka gener är förknippade med en viss sjukdom? Hur kan Netflix och Spotify veta vilka filmer och vilken musik som jag vill lyssna på härnäst? Dessa tre problem är exempel på frågor där statistiska modeller kan vara användbara för att ge hjälp och underlag för beslut. Statistiska modeller kombinerar teoretisk kunskap om exempelvis det svenska ekonomiska systemet med historisk data för att ge prognoser av framtida skeenden. Dessa prognoser kan sedan användas för att utvärdera exempelvis vad som skulle hända med inflationen i Sverige om arbetslösheten sjunker eller hur värdet på mitt pensionssparande förändras när Stockholmsbörsen rasar. Tillämpningar som dessa och många andra gör statistiska modeller viktiga för många delar av samhället. Ett sätt att ta fram statistiska modeller bygger på att kontinuerligt uppdatera en modell allteftersom mer information samlas in. Detta angreppssätt kallas för Bayesiansk statistik och är särskilt användbart när man sedan tidigare har bra insikter i modellen eller tillgång till endast lite historisk data för att bygga modellen. En nackdel med Bayesiansk statistik är att de beräkningar som krävs för att uppdatera modellen med den nya informationen ofta är mycket komplicerade. I sådana situationer kan man istället simulera utfallet från miljontals varianter av modellen och sedan jämföra dessa mot de historiska observationerna som finns till hands. Man kan sedan medelvärdesbilda över de varianter som gav bäst resultat för att på så sätt ta fram en slutlig modell. Det kan därför ibland ta dagar eller veckor för att ta fram en modell. Problemet blir särskilt stort när man använder mer avancerade modeller som skulle kunna ge bättre prognoser men som tar för lång tid för att bygga. I denna avhandling använder vi ett antal olika strategier för att underlätta eller förbättra dessa simuleringar. Vi föreslår exempelvis att ta hänsyn till fler insikter om systemet och därmed minska antalet varianter av modellen som behöver undersökas. Vi kan således redan utesluta vissa modeller eftersom vi har en bra uppfattning om ungefär hur en bra modell ska se ut. Vi kan också förändra simuleringen så att den enklare rör sig mellan olika typer av modeller. På detta sätt utforskas rymden av alla möjliga modeller på ett mer effektivt sätt. Vi föreslår ett antal olika kombinationer och förändringar av befintliga metoder för att snabba upp anpassningen av modellen till observationerna. Vi visar att beräkningstiden i vissa fall kan minska ifrån några dagar till någon timme. Förhoppningsvis kommer detta i framtiden leda till att man i praktiken kan använda mer avancerade modeller som i sin tur resulterar i bättre prognoser och beslut.

Download or read book Semiparametric Regression written by David Ruppert and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-07-14 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Semiparametric regression is concerned with the flexible incorporation of non-linear functional relationships in regression analyses. Any application area that benefits from regression analysis can also benefit from semiparametric regression. Assuming only a basic familiarity with ordinary parametric regression, this user-friendly book explains the techniques and benefits of semiparametric regression in a concise and modular fashion. The authors make liberal use of graphics and examples plus case studies taken from environmental, financial, and other applications. They include practical advice on implementation and pointers to relevant software. The 2003 book is suitable as a textbook for students with little background in regression as well as a reference book for statistically oriented scientists such as biostatisticians, econometricians, quantitative social scientists, epidemiologists, with a good working knowledge of regression and the desire to begin using more flexible semiparametric models. Even experts on semiparametric regression should find something new here.