Download or read book Eliciting Beliefs in Continuous Choice Games written by Claudia Neri and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a methodology to implement probabilistic belief elicitation in continuous-choice games. Representing subjective probabilistic beliefs about a continuous variable as a continuous subjective probability distribution, the methodology involves eliciting partial information about the subjective distribution and fitting a parametric distribution on the elicited data. As an illustration, the methodology is applied to a double auction experiment, where traders' beliefs about the bidding choices of other market participants are elicited. Elicited subjective beliefs are found to differ from proxies such as Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (BNE) beliefs and empirical beliefs, both in terms of the forecasts of other traders' bidding choices and in terms of the best-response bidding choices prescribed by beliefs. Elicited subjective beliefs help explain observed bidding choices better than BNE beliefs and empirical beliefs. By extending probabilistic belief elicitation beyond discrete-choice games to continuous-choice games, the proposed methodology enables to investigate the role of beliefs in a wider range of applications.
Download or read book Experimental Economics written by Nicolas Jacquemet and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-11-29 with total page 475 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, experimental economics has moved from a fringe activity to become a standard tool for empirical research. With experimental economics now regarded as part of the basic tool-kit for applied economics, this book demonstrates how controlled experiments can be a useful in providing evidence relevant to economic research. Professors Jacquemet and L'Haridon take the standard model in applied econometrics as a basis to the methodology of controlled experiments. Methodological discussions are illustrated with standard experimental results. This book provides future experimental practitioners with the means to construct experiments that fit their research question, and new comers with an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of controlled experiments. Graduate students and academic researchers working in the field of experimental economics will be able to learn how to undertake, understand and criticise empirical research based on lab experiments, and refer to specific experiments, results or designs completed with case study applications.
Download or read book Epistemic Game Theory written by Andrés Perea and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-06-07 with total page 581 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first textbook to explain the principles of epistemic game theory.
Download or read book Stochastic Choice and Noisy Beliefs in Games written by Evan Friedman and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We conduct an experiment in which we elicit subjects' beliefs over opponents' behavior multiple times for a given game without feedback. We find that the large majority of individual subjects have stochastic belief reports, which we argue cannot be explained by learning or measurement error. Using both actions and beliefs data, we directly test the axioms underlying equilibrium models with “noisy actions” (quantal response equilibrium) and “noisy beliefs” (noisy belief equilibrium). We find that, while both types of noise are important in explaining observed behaviors, there are systematic violations of the axioms. We discuss possible explanations and some implications for modelling stochastic choice in games.
Download or read book Beliefs and Decision Rules in Public Good Games written by Theo Offerman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part I provides an introduction to this study of players' beliefs and decision rules in to obtain data in order to public good games. The experimental method will be used test theoretical ideas about beliefs and decision rules. Chapter 1 discusses some methodological issues concerning experimentation in the social sciences. In particular, this chapter focuses on the relationship between experimental economics and social psychology. Chapter 2 provides an overview of psychological and economic ideas concerning players' beliefs and decision rules in public good games. This chapter forms the theoretical foundation of the book. Chapter 3 discusses some basic experimental tools which will be used in the experiments to be reported in part II. These basic experimental tools make up two procedures, to obtain a measure of a player's social orientation and a measure of her or his beliefs. 1. Experimentation in the social sciences 1.1 Introduction The study of human behavior is an area where economics and psychology overlap. Although both disciplines are concerned with the same human beings, they often have different points of view on how people make choices and the motivation behind it.
Download or read book An Experimental Study of Belief written by Tamekichi Okabe and published by . This book was released on 1910 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Models and Experiments in Risk and Rationality written by Bertrand Munier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Models and Experiments in Risk and Rationality presents original contributions to the areas of individual choice, experimental economics, operations and analysis, multiple criteria decision making, market uncertainty, game theory and social choice. The papers, which were presented at the FUR VI conference, are arranged to appear in order of increasing complexity of the decision environment or social context in which they situate themselves. The first section `Psychological Aspects of Risk-Bearing', considers choice at the purely individual level and for the most part, free of any specific economic or social context. The second section examines individual choice within the classical expected utility approach while the third section works from a perspective that includes non-expected utility preferences over lotteries. Section four, `Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Under Uncertainty', considers the more specialized but crucial context of uncertain choice involving tradeoffs between competing criteria -- a field which is becoming of increasing importance in applied decision analysis. The final two sections examine uncertain choice in social or group contexts.
Download or read book Game Theory and Behavior written by Jeffrey Carpenter and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-12-06 with total page 725 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to game theory that offers not only theoretical tools but also the intuition and behavioral insights to apply these tools to real-world situations. This introductory text on game theory provides students with both the theoretical tools to analyze situations through the logic of game theory and the intuition and behavioral insights to apply these tools to real-world situations. It is unique among game theory texts in offering a clear, formal introduction to standard game theory while incorporating evidence from experimental data and introducing recent behavioral models. Students will not only learn about incentives, how to represent situations as games, and what agents “should” do in these situations, but they will also be presented with evidence that either confirms the theoretical assumptions or suggests a way in which the theory might be updated. Features: Each chapter begins with a motivating example that can be run as an experiment and ends with a discussion of the behavior in the example. Parts I–IV cover the fundamental “nuts and bolts” of any introductory game theory course, including the theory of games, simple games with simultaneous decision making by players, sequential move games, and incomplete information in simultaneous and sequential move games. Parts V–VII apply the tools developed in previous sections to bargaining, cooperative game theory, market design, social dilemmas, and social choice and voting. Part VIII offers a more in-depth discussion of behavioral game theory models including evolutionary and psychological game theory. Supplemental material on the book’s website include solutions to end-of-chapter exercises, a manual for running each chapter’s experimental games using pencil and paper, and the oTree codes for running the games online.
Download or read book Pattern Recognition and Subjective Belief Learning in a Repeated Constant Sum Game written by Leonidas Spiliopoulos and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aspires to fill a conspicuous gap in the literature regarding learning in games -- the absence of empirical verification of learning rules involving pattern recognition. Weighted fictitious play is extended to detect two-period patterns in opponents' behavior and to comply with the cognitive laws of subjective perception. An analysis of the data from Nyarko and Schotter (2002) uncovers significant evidence of pattern recognition in elicited beliefs and action choices. The probability that subjects employ pattern recognition depends positively on a measure of the exploitable two-period patterns in an opponent's action choices, in stark contrast to the minimax hypothesis. A significant proportion of the subjects' competence in pattern recognition is the result of a subconscious/automatic cognitive mechanism, implying that elicited beliefs may not adequately represent the complete learning process of game players. Additionally, standard weighted fictitious play models are found to bias memory parameter estimates upwards due to mis-specification.
Download or read book Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation written by Kenneth Train and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-06 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.
Download or read book The Foundations of Positive and Normative Economics written by Andrew Caplin and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-06-25 with total page 405 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Foundations of Positive and Normative Economics: A Handbook is the first book in a new series by Andrew Caplin and Andrew Schotter. There is currently no guide available on the rapidly changing methodological frontiers of the field of economics. Economists have been introducing new theories and new sources of data at a remarkable rate in recent years, and there are widely divergent views both on how productive these expansions have been in the past, and how best to make progress in the future. The speed of these changes has left economists ill at ease, and has created a backlash against new methods. The series will debate these critical issues, allowing proponents of a particular research method to present proposals in a safe yet critical context, with alternatives being clarified. This first volume, written by some of the most prominent researchers in the discipline, reflects the challenges that are opened by new research opportunities. The goal of the current volume and the series it presages, is to formally open a dialog on methodology. The editors' conviction is that such a debate will rebound to the benefit of social science in general, and economics in particular. The issues under discussion strike to the very heart of the social scientific enterprise. This work is of tremendous importance to all who are interested in the contributions that academic research can make not only to our scientific understanding, but also to matters of policy.
Download or read book The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis written by Sanjit Dhami and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-12-16 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This sixth volume of The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis covers behavioral models of learning. It is an essential guide for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students seeking a concise and focused text on this important subject, and examines evolutionary game theory, models of learning, and stochastic social dynamics. This updated extract from Dhami's leading textbook allows the reader to pursue subsections of this vast and rapidly growing field and to tailor their reading to their specific interests in behavioral economics.
Download or read book Handbook of Computational Economics written by Leigh Tesfatsion and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-05-15 with total page 905 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The explosive growth in computational power over the past several decades offers new tools and opportunities for economists. This handbook volume surveys recent research on Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE), the computational study of economic processes modeled as dynamic systems of interacting agents. Empirical referents for "agents" in ACE models can range from individuals or social groups with learning capabilities to physical world features with no cognitive function. Topics covered include: learning; empirical validation; network economics; social dynamics; financial markets; innovation and technological change; organizations; market design; automated markets and trading agents; political economy; social-ecological systems; computational laboratory development; and general methodological issues. *Every volume contains contributions from leading researchers *Each Handbook presents an accurate, self-contained survey of a particular topic *The series provides comprehensive and accessible surveys
Download or read book Imperfect Perception and Stochastic Choice in Experiments written by Pablo Brañas-Garza and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2023-11-30 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The branch of psychology that studies how physical objects are perceived by subjects is known as psychophysics. A feature of the experimental design is that the experimenter presents objectively measurable objects that are imperfectly perceived by subjects. The responses are stochastic in that a subject might respond differently in otherwise identical situations. These stochastic choices can be compared to the objectively measurable properties. This Element offers a brief introduction to the topic, describes how psychophysics insights are already present in economics, and describes experimental techniques with the goal that they are useful in the design of economics experiments. Noise is a ubiquitous feature of experimental economics and there is a large strand of economics literature that carefully considers the noise. However, the authors view the psychophysics experimental techniques as uniquely suited to helping experimental economists uncover what is hiding in the noise.
Download or read book Honesty and Moral Behavior in Economic Games written by Steffen Huck and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-12-01 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Rock Paper Scissors written by Len Fisher and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2008-11-04 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praised by Entertainment Weekly as “the man who put the fizz into physics,” Dr. Len Fisher turns his attention to the science of cooperation in his lively and thought-provoking book. Fisher shows how the modern science of game theory has helped biologists to understand the evolution of cooperation in nature, and investigates how we might apply those lessons to our own society. In a series of experiments that take him from the polite confines of an English dinner party to crowded supermarkets, congested Indian roads, and the wilds of outback Australia, not to mention baseball strategies and the intricacies of quantum mechanics, Fisher sheds light on the problem of global cooperation. The outcomes are sometimes hilarious, sometimes alarming, but always revealing. A witty romp through a serious science, Rock, Paper, Scissors will both teach and delight anyone interested in what it what it takes to get people to work together.
Download or read book Towards a Refined Understanding of Social Trust T R U S T written by Frank Krueger and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2020-10-12 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This eBook is a collection of articles from a Frontiers Research Topic. Frontiers Research Topics are very popular trademarks of the Frontiers Journals Series: they are collections of at least ten articles, all centered on a particular subject. With their unique mix of varied contributions from Original Research to Review Articles, Frontiers Research Topics unify the most influential researchers, the latest key findings and historical advances in a hot research area! Find out more on how to host your own Frontiers Research Topic or contribute to one as an author by contacting the Frontiers Editorial Office: frontiersin.org/about/contact.
