Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Download or read book Frontiers of Business Cycle Research written by Thomas F. Cooley and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1995-02-26 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Download or read book Economic Growth second edition written by Robert J. Barro and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003-10-10 with total page 676 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The long-awaited second edition of an important textbook on economic growth—a major revision incorporating the most recent work on the subject. This graduate level text on economic growth surveys neoclassical and more recent growth theories, stressing their empirical implications and the relation of theory to data and evidence. The authors have undertaken a major revision for the long-awaited second edition of this widely used text, the first modern textbook devoted to growth theory. The book has been expanded in many areas and incorporates the latest research. After an introductory discussion of economic growth, the book examines neoclassical growth theories, from Solow-Swan in the 1950s and Cass-Koopmans in the 1960s to more recent refinements; this is followed by a discussion of extensions to the model, with expanded treatment in this edition of heterogenity of households. The book then turns to endogenous growth theory, discussing, among other topics, models of endogenous technological progress (with an expanded discussion in this edition of the role of outside competition in the growth process), technological diffusion, and an endogenous determination of labor supply and population. The authors then explain the essentials of growth accounting and apply this framework to endogenous growth models. The final chapters cover empirical analysis of regions and empirical evidence on economic growth for a broad panel of countries from 1960 to 2000. The updated treatment of cross-country growth regressions for this edition uses the new Summers-Heston data set on world income distribution compiled through 2000.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-10-06 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
Download or read book Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Download or read book Business Cycles and Depressions written by David Glasner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 800 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experts define, review, and evaluate economic fluctuations Economic and business uncertainty dominate today's economic analyses. This new Encyclopedia illuminates the subject by offering 323 original articles on every major aspect of business cycles, fluctuations, financial crises, recessions, and depressions. The work of more than 200 experts, including many of the leading researchers in the field, the articles cover a broad range of subjects, including capsule biographies of leading economists born before 1920. Individual entries explore banking panics, the cobweb cycle, consumer durables, the depression of 1937-1938, Otto Eckstein, Friedrich Engels, experimental price bubbles, forced savings, lass-Steagall Act, Friedrich hagen, qualitative indicators, use of macro-econometric models, monetary neutrality, Phillips Curve, Paul Samuelson, Say's law, supply-side recessions, James Tokin, trend and random wages, Thorstein Veblen, worker-job turnover, and more.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1913 with total page 642 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Real Business Cycle Models in Economics written by Warren Young and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-01-10 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this book is to describe the intellectual process by which Real Business Cycle models were developed. The approach taken focuses on the core elements in the development of RBC models: (i) building blocks, (ii) catalysts, and (iii) meta-syntheses. This is done by detailed examination of all available unpublished variorum drafts of the key papers in the RBC story, so as to determine the origins of the ideas. The analysis of the process their discovery is then set out followed by explanations of the evolution and dissemination of the models, from first generation papers through full blown research programs. This is supplemented by interviews and correspondence with the individuals who were at the center of the development of RBC models, such as Kydland, Prescott, Long, Plosser, King, Lucas and Barro, among others. This book gets stright to the heart of the debates surrounding RBC models and as such contributes to a real assessment of their impact on modern macroeconomics. The volume, therefore, will interest all scholars looking at macroeconomics as well as historians of economic thought more generally.
Download or read book Growth Cycles written by George W. Evans and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct a rational expectations model in which aggregate growth alternates between a low growth and a high growth state. When all agents expect growth to be slow, the returns on investment are low, and little investment takes place. This slows growth and confirms the prediction that the returns on investment will be low. But if agents expect fast growth, investment is high, returns are high, and growth is rapid. This expectational indeterminacy is induced by complementarity between different types of capital goods. In a growth cycle there are stochastic shifts between high and low growth states and agents take full account of these transitions. The rules that agents need to form rational expectations in this equilibrium are simple. The equilibrium with growth cycles is stable under the dynamics implied by a correspondingly simple learning rule.
Download or read book Income Versus Prices How Does The Business Cycle Affect Food In Security written by Mr. Christian Bogmans and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-09-24 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study how two aspects of food insecurity - caloric insufficiency and diet composition - are affected by aggregate economic fluctuations. The use of cross-country panel data allows us to adopt a global prospective on the identification of the macroeconomic determinants of food insecurity. Income shocks are the most relevant driver of food insecurity, displaying high elasticities at the early stages of economic development. The role of food price shocks is more limited. Social protection has a direct effect and mitigates the impact of income shocks. Effects are highly heterogeneous across a range of structural characteristics of the economy, highlighting the role of distributional aspects and of food import dependency.
Download or read book The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-07-13 with total page 643 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration finds that the long-term impact of immigration on the wages and employment of native-born workers overall is very small, and that any negative impacts are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born high school dropouts. First-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than are the native-born, but the second generation are among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. This report concludes that immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, the first generation (foreign-born) and second generation (children of the foreign-born) comprise almost one in four Americans. It comes as little surprise, then, that many U.S. residents view immigration as a major policy issue facing the nation. Not only does immigration affect the environment in which everyone lives, learns, and works, but it also interacts with nearly every policy area of concern, from jobs and the economy, education, and health care, to federal, state, and local government budgets. The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society, institutions, and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate that plays out at the national, state, and local levels. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration assesses the impact of dynamic immigration processes on economic and fiscal outcomes for the United States, a major destination of world population movements. This report will be a fundamental resource for policy makers and law makers at the federal, state, and local levels but extends to the general public, nongovernmental organizations, the business community, educational institutions, and the research community.
Download or read book Advances in Innovation Trade and Business written by Aswini Kumar Mishra and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-03-22 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the process of liberalization and opening of markets in the 1990s, the emerging markets have created a thriving culture of entrepreneurship, creativity and global collaboration. Along with these opportunities, however, there are challenges in doing business with emerging markets. This book underlines the challenges that come with managing business relationships in diverse emerging countries such as India. It also provides useful implications and conclusions for successful and profitable business ventures in emerging economies.
Download or read book Monetary Policy Inflation and the Business Cycle written by Jordi Galí and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-06-09 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts
Download or read book Business Fluctuations and Cycles written by T. Nagakawa and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2008 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The business cycle or economic cycle refers to the periodic fluctuations of economic activity about its long term growth trend. The cycle involves shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid growth of output (recovery and prosperity), alternating with periods of relative stagnation or decline (contraction or recession). These fluctuations are often measured using the real gross domestic product. One of the government's main roles is to smooth out the business cycle and reduce its fluctuations. To call those alternances 'cycles' is rather misleading as they don't tend to repeat at fairly regular time intervals. Most observers find that their lengths (from peak to peak, or from trough to trough) vary, so that cycles are not mechanical in their regularity. Since no two cycles are alike in their details, some economists dispute the existence of cycles and use the word 'fluctuations' (or the like) instead. Others see enough similarities between cycles that the cycle is a valid basis of studying the state of the economy. A key question is whether or not there are similar mechanisms that generate recessions and/or booms that exist in capitalist economies so that the dynamics that appear as a cycle will be seen again and again. This new book presents leading-edge research in this field.
