Download or read book Diffusion Estimation and Structural Stability Tests of Short Term Interest Rate Models written by Sumihiro Takeda and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a simple method for estimating the diffusion function of continuous-time diffusion processes without specifying the drift function structure. This estimation method is suitable for practitioners choosing an interest rate derivative pricing model among the short-term rate type. We estimate the diffusion function parameters by using one-month Euro rates; US Dollar, German Mark, and Japanese Yen. We conduct structural stability tests of the diffusion function parameters and find a statistically significant structural change in the German Mark process. We, however, do not detect structural changes in the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen processes during the same period.

Download or read book Estimating Parameters of Short Term Real Interest Rate Models written by Mr.Vadim Khramov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-17 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper sheds light on a narrow but crucial question in finance: What should be the parameters of a model of the short-term real interest rate? Although models for the nominal interest rate are well studied and estimated, dynamics of the real interest rate are rarely explored. Simple ad hoc processes for the short-term real interest rate are usually assumed as building blocks for more sophisticated models. In this paper, parameters of the real interest rate model are estimated in the broad class of single-factor interest rate diffusion processes on U.S. monthly data. It is shown that the elasticity of interest rate volatility—the relationship between the volatility of changes in the interest rate and its level—plays a crucial role in explaining real interest rate dynamics. The empirical estimates of the elasticity of the real interest rate volatility are found to be about 0.5, much lower than that of the nominal interest rate. These estimates show that the square root process, as in the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, provides a good characterization of the short-term real interest rate process.

Download or read book Building and Using Dynamic Interest Rate Models written by Ken O. Kortanek and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2001-11-28 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a new approach to interest rate and modeling term structure by using models based on optimization of dynamical systems, rather than the traditional stochastic differential equation models. The authors use dynamic models to estimate the term structure of interest rates and show the reader how to build their own numerical simulations. It includes software that will enable readers to simulate the various models covered in the book.

Download or read book Empirical Comparisons in Short Term Interest Rate Models Using Nonparametric Methods written by Manuel Arapis and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study applies the nonparametric estimation procedure to the diffusion process modeling the dynamics of short-term interest rates. This approach allows us to operate in continuous time, estimating the continuous-time model, despite the use of discrete data. Three methods are proposed. We apply these methods to two important financial data. After selecting an appropriate bandwidth for each dataset, empirical comparisons indicate that the specification of the drift has a considerable impact on the pricing of derivatives through its effect on the diffusion function. In addition, a novel nonparametric test has been proposed for specification of linearity in the drift. Our simulation directs us to reject the null hypothesis of linearity at the 5% significance level for the two financial datasets.

Download or read book Handbook of Financial Econometrics written by Yacine Ait-Sahalia and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-10-19 with total page 809 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of original articles—8 years in the making—shines a bright light on recent advances in financial econometrics. From a survey of mathematical and statistical tools for understanding nonlinear Markov processes to an exploration of the time-series evolution of the risk-return tradeoff for stock market investment, noted scholars Yacine Aït-Sahalia and Lars Peter Hansen benchmark the current state of knowledge while contributors build a framework for its growth. Whether in the presence of statistical uncertainty or the proven advantages and limitations of value at risk models, readers will discover that they can set few constraints on the value of this long-awaited volume. Presents a broad survey of current research—from local characterizations of the Markov process dynamics to financial market trading activity Contributors include Nobel Laureate Robert Engle and leading econometricians Offers a clarity of method and explanation unavailable in other financial econometrics collections

Download or read book Long Memory Models of Interest Rates the Term Structure and Variance Bounds Tests written by Gary S. Shea and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modeling the U S Short Term Interest Rate by Mixture Autoregressive Processes written by Markku Lanne and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new kind of mixture autoregressive model with GARCH errors is introduced and applied to the U.S. short-term interest rate. According to the diagnostic tests developed in the article and further informal checks, the model is capable of capturing both of the typical characteristics of the short-term interest rate: volatility persistence and the dependence of volatility on the level of the interest rate. The model also allows for regime switches whose presence has been a third central result emerging from the recent empirical literature on the U.S. short-term interest rate. Realizations generated from the estimated model seem stable and their properties resemble those of the observed series closely. The drift and diffusion functions implied by the new model are in accordance with the results in much of the literature on continuous-time diffusion models for the short-term interest rate, and the term structure implications agree with historically observed patterns.

Download or read book Estimation of Discretely Sampled Continuous Diffusion Processes with Application to Short term Interest Rate Models written by Vaughan Van Appel and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Consistency Problems for Heath Jarrow Morton Interest Rate Models written by Damir Filipovic and published by Springer. This book was released on 2004-11-02 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bond markets differ in one fundamental aspect from standard stock markets. While the latter are built up to a finite number of trade assets, the underlying basis of a bond market is the entire term structure of interest rates: an infinite-dimensional variable which is not directly observable. On the empirical side, this necessitates curve-fitting methods for the daily estimation of the term structure. Pricing models, on the other hand, are usually built upon stochastic factors representing the term structure in a finite-dimensional state space. Written for readers with knowledge in mathematical finance (in particular interest rate theory) and elementary stochastic analysis, this research monograph has threefold aims: to bring together estimation methods and factor models for interest rates, to provide appropriate consistency conditions and to explore some important examples.

Download or read book Comparison of the Short Term Interest Rate Models written by Mona Ben Salah and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article attempts to identify the best model of the short term interest rates that can predict its stochastic process over time. We studied nine different models of the short term interest rates. The choice of these models was the aim of analyzing the relevance of certain specifications of the the short term interest rate stochastic process, the effect of mean reversion and the sensitivity of the volatility to the level of interest rate.The yield on US three months treasury bills is used as a proxy for the short term interest rates. The parameters of the different stochastic process are estimated using the generalized method of moments. The results show that the effect of mean reversion is not statistically significant and that volatility is highly sensitive to the level of interest rates. To further study the performance prediction of the intertemporal behavior of the short term interest rate of the various models; we simulated their stochastic process for different periods.The results show that none of the studied models reproduce the actual path of the short term interest rates. The problem lies in the parametric specification of the mean and volatility of the diffusion process To further study the accurate parametric specification of the interest rate stochastic process we use a nonparametric estimation of the drift and the diffusion functions. The results prove that both should be nonlinear.

Download or read book Pathwise Estimation and Inference for Diffusion Market Models written by Nikolai Dokuchaev and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-03-26 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pathwise estimation and inference for diffusion market models discusses contemporary techniques for inferring, from options and bond prices, the market participants' aggregate view on important financial parameters such as implied volatility, discount rate, future interest rate, and their uncertainty thereof. The focus is on the pathwise inference methods that are applicable to a sole path of the observed prices and do not require the observation of an ensemble of such paths. This book is pitched at the level of senior undergraduate students undertaking research at honors year, and postgraduate candidates undertaking Master’s or PhD degree by research. From a research perspective, this book reaches out to academic researchers from backgrounds as diverse as mathematics and probability, econometrics and statistics, and computational mathematics and optimization whose interest lie in analysis and modelling of financial market data from a multi-disciplinary approach. Additionally, this book is also aimed at financial market practitioners participating in capital market facing businesses who seek to keep abreast with and draw inspiration from novel approaches in market data analysis. The first two chapters of the book contains introductory material on stochastic analysis and the classical diffusion stock market models. The remaining chapters discuss more special stock and bond market models and special methods of pathwise inference for market parameter for different models. The final chapter describes applications of numerical methods of inference of bond market parameters to forecasting of short rate. Nikolai Dokuchaev is an associate professor in Mathematics and Statistics at Curtin University. His research interests include mathematical and statistical finance, stochastic analysis, PDEs, control, and signal processing. Lin Yee Hin is a practitioner in the capital market facing industry. His research interests include econometrics, non-parametric regression, and scientific computing.

Download or read book Nonparametric Estimation of Multifactor Continuous Time Interest Rate Models written by Chris Downing and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book An Elementary Introduction to Stochastic Interest Rate Modeling written by Nicolas Privault and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 191 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook is written as an accessible introduction to interest rate modeling and related derivatives, which have become increasingly important subjects of interest in financial mathematics. The models considered range from standard short rate to forward rate models and include more advanced topics such as the BGM model and an approach to its calibration. An elementary treatment of the pricing of caps and swaptions under forward measures is also provided, with a focus on explicit calculations and a step-by-step introduction of concepts. Each chapter is accompanied with exercises and their complete solutions, making this book suitable for advanced undergraduate or beginning graduate-level students.

Download or read book Three Alternative Term Structure of Interest Rates Models for Testing Term Point Estimation Hypothesis written by Yu-jung Liu and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives in a Non parametric Two factor Term structure Model written by John L. Knight and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proposes a non-parametric two-factor term-structure model that imposes no restrictions on the functional forms of the diffusion functions.

Download or read book A Semiparametric Diffusion Model for the Short Term Interest Rate written by Dennis Kristensen and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a semiparametric single-factor diffusion model for the term structure of interest rate. The model is highly flexible and encompasses most parametric single-factor models proposed in the literature. We fit the semiparametric model to a proxy of the Eurodollar short term interst rate and compare it with the most flexible parametric model found in the literature: First directly, by testing the fully parametric model against the semiparametric one. Secondly, we look at how much the bond prices predicted by the competing models differ; this yields an alternative measure of the performance of the models. The fitted semiparametric model picks up nonlinearities which the fully parameteric model cannot capture. This leads to a rejection of the parametric model in favour of the semiparametric model in the direct comparison of the two fitted models. Moreover, the calculated bond prices implied by the two competing models are shown to be significantly different.

Download or read book Term Structure Models of Interest Rates with Jump diffusion Information written by Koji Kusuda and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: