Download or read book Covariance Risk Mispricing and the Cross Section of Security Returns written by Kent Daniel and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper offers a multisecurity model in which prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firms' prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade to profit from mispricing. We derive a pricing relationship in which expected returns are linearly related to both risk and mispricing variables. The model thereby implies a multivariate relation between expected return, beta, and variables that proxy for mispricing of idiosyncratic components of value tends to be arbitraged away but systematic mispricing is not. The theory is consistent with several empirical findings regarding the cross-section of equity returns, including: the observed ability of fundamental/price ratios to forecast aggregate and cross-sectional returns, and of market value but not non-market size measures to forecast returns cross-sectionally; and the ability in some studies of fundamental/price ratios and market value to dominate traditional measures of security risk. The model also offers several untested empirical implications for the cross-section of expected returns and for the relation of volume to subsequent volatility

Download or read book Covariance Risk Mispricing and the Cross Section of Security Returns written by Kent D. Daniel and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper offers a model in which asset rices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firms' prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are linearly related to both risk and mispricing measures (e.g., fundamental/price ratios). With many securities, mispricing of idiosyncratic value components diminishes but systematic mispricing does not. The theory offers untested empirical implications about volume, volatility, fundamental/price ratios, and mean returns, and is consistent with several empirical findings. These include the ability of fundamental/price ratios and market value to forecast returns, and the domination of beta by these variables in some studies.

Download or read book Covariance Risk Mispricing and the Gross Section of Security Returns written by Kent D. Daniel and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Firm Characteristics and the Cross Section of Covariance Risk written by Chris Kirby and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I analyze the cross-section of covariance risk for individual stocks using a new type of multivariate volatility model in which firm characteristics serve as time-varying loadings on fundamental factors. The evidence points to strong linkages between firm characteristics and covariance risk, and also reveals that cross-sectional differences in covariance risk explain much of the cross-sectional variation in expected excess stock returns. I find, for example, that the fundamental factors perform at least as well as the Fama-French factors in regression-based pricing tests. In view of its tractability and performance, the proposed model should find use in a variety of applications.

Download or read book Information Precision Noise and the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Radu Burlacu and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We derive a cross-sectional asset pricing measure from a noisy multi-asset rational expectations equilibrium model. The measure is based on the time-series covariance of an asset's returns and security prices. Empirically, stocks with a measure one standard deviation above and below the average have returns that di er by 0.36% the following month (4.44% per annum) which is statistically significant at the 1%-level. The findings are concentrated in the smallest three deciles of stocks using NYSE breakpoints. Results remain significant after including variables such as stock market capitalization, book-to-market ratio, and the probability of information-based trading. Our measure can be understood as a proxy for information risk and/or supply uncertainty. The two explanations cannot easily be disentangled.

Download or read book Presentation Slides Investor Overconfidence Covariance Risk and Predictors of Securities Returns written by Kent D. Daniel and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are linearly related to both risk and mispricing measures (e.g., fundamental/price ratios). With many securities, mispricing of idiosyncratic value components diminishes but systematic mispricing does not. The theory offers untested empirical implications about volume, volatility, fundamental/price ratios, and mean returns, and is consistent with several empirical findings. These include the ability of fundamental/price ratios and market value to forecast returns, and the domination of beta by these variables in some studies. Paper can be found here: "https://ssrn.com/abstract=1288932" https://ssrn.com/abstract=1288932.

Download or read book Cointegration Causality and Forecasting written by Halbert White and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1999 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of essays in honour of Clive Granger. The chapters are by some of the world's leading econometricians, all of whom have collaborated with and/or studied with both) Clive Granger. Central themes of Granger's work are reflected in the book with attention to tests for unit roots and cointegration, tests of misspecification, forecasting models and forecast evaluation, non-linear and non-parametric econometric techniques, and overall, a careful blend of practical empirical work and strong theory. The book shows the scope of Granger's research and the range of the profession that has been influenced by his work.

Download or read book Successful Investing Is a Process written by Jacques Lussier and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-01-28 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A process-driven approach to investment management that lets you achieve the same high gains as the most successful portfolio managers, but at half the cost What do you pay for when you hire a portfolio manager? Is it his or her unique experience and expertise, a set of specialized analytical skills possessed by only a few? The truth, according to industry insider Jacques Lussier, is that, despite their often grandiose claims, most successful investment managers, themselves, can't properly explain their successes. In this book Lussier argues convincingly that most of the gains achieved by professional portfolio managers can be accounted for not by special knowledge or arcane analytical methodologies, but proper portfolio management processes whether they are aware of this or not. More importantly, Lussier lays out a formal process-oriented approach proven to consistently garner most of the excess gains generated by traditional analysis-intensive approaches, but at a fraction of the cost since it could be fully implemented internally. Profit from more than a half-century's theoretical and empirical literature, as well as the author's own experiences as a top investment strategist Learn an approach, combining several formal management processes, that simplifies portfolio management and makes its underlying qualities more transparent, while lowering costs significantly Discover proven methods for exploiting the inefficiencies of traditional benchmarks, as well as the behavioral biases of investors and corporate management, for consistently high returns Learn to use highly-efficient portfolio management and rebalancing methodologies and an approach to diversification that yields returns far greater than traditional investment programs

Download or read book Variance Risk Financial Intermediation and the Cross section of Expected Option Returns written by Norman Schürhoff and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore the pricing of variance risk by decomposing stocks' total variance into systematic and idiosyncratic return variances. While systematic variance risk exhibits a negative price of risk, common shocks to the variances of idiosyncratic returns carry a large positive risk premium. This implies investors pay for insurance against increases (declines) in systematic (idiosyncratic) variance, even though both variances comove countercyclically. Common idiosyncratic variance risk is an important determinant for the cross-section of expected option returns. These findings reconcile several phenomena, including the pricing differences between index and stock options, the cross-sectional variation in stock option expensiveness, the volatility mispricing puzzle, and the significant returns earned on various option portfolio strategies. Our results are consistent with theories of financial intermediation under capital constraints.

Download or read book Working Paper Series written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Asymmetric Returns and Semidimensional Risks written by Cheekiat Low and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most theoretical models in finance measure risk as variance or covariance. However, many financial decision-makers seem to regard risk as the volatility of below-target returns and treat the volatility of above-target returns as a sweetener. Using simple metrics of downside risk and upside potential, constructed from conditional covariances, I test for the empirical content of this asymmetry. I introduce a new composite metric of semidimensional risks which reveals that the nonlinearity in the covariation of stock returns with bearish and bullish conditions of the market is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. In particular, I find that stocks that have concave characteristic regression lines against the market earn higher average returns than stocks that have convex characteristic regression lines. This new metric captures the relevant information in returns asymmetry or nonlinearity better than either coskewness or the square-coefficient from quadratic regression. I also present results that are consistent with a semidimensional risk-based explanation for the twin puzzles of return momentum and reversal. The primitive representation of the security pricing kernel as the negative of covariance between marginal utility of consumption and security returns lends theoretical support for semidimensional risks and provides a unifying perspective for seemingly disparate literature on semivariances, skewness and behavioral finance.

Download or read book The Cross Section of Risk and Return written by Kent Daniel and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the finance literature, a common practice is to create characteristic portfolios by sorting on characteristics associated with average returns. We show that the resulting portfolios are likely to capture not only the priced risk associated with the characteristic, but also unpriced risk. We develop a procedure to remove this unpriced risk using covariance information estimated from past returns. We apply our methodology to the five Fama and French (2015) characteristic portfolios. The squared Sharpe ratio of the optimal combination of the resulting characteristic efficient portfolios is 2.16, compared with 1.16 for the original characteristic portfolios.

Download or read book An Analysis of Risk and Pricing Anomalies written by Tobias J. Moskowitz and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the link between several well-known asset pricing anomalies and covariance risk. Estimating the time-series of the covariance matrix of asset returns via a multivariate GARCH model, I quantify the contribution made by each anomaly to the covariance matrix of asset returns, as well as its ability to forecast future covariances. I find that anomalous returns associated with firm size are closely linked to the covariance matrix, while those associated with book-to-market equity are weakly linked. However, returns associated with momentum do not appear related to covariance risk and do not forecast future covariances. Finally, despite its lack of predictive power on the cross-section of expected returns, the market portfolio is the single most important factor contributing to and forecasting covariance risk.

Download or read book Consumption Risk and Cross Sectional Returns written by Christian Julliard and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates the central insight of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (C-CAPM) that an asset's expected return is determined by its equilibrium risk to consumption. Rather that measure the risk of a portfolio by the contemporaneous covariance of its return and consumption growth -- as done in the previous literature on the C-CAPM and the pattern of cross-sectional returns -- we measure the risk of a portfolio by its ultimate consumption risk defined as the covariance of its return and consumption growth over the quarter of the return and many following quarters. While contemporaneous consumption risk has little predictive power for explaining the pattern of average returns across the Fama and French (25) portfolios, ultimate consumption risk is highly statistically significant in explaining average returns and explains a large fraction of the variation in average returns. Aditionally, estimates of the average risk-free real rate of interest and the coefficient of relative risk aversion of the representative household based on ultimate consumption risk are more reasonable than those obtained using contemporaneous consumption risk.

Download or read book Elements of Covariance in Security Returns and Their Macroeconomic Determinants written by Vinay Vasudeo Marathe and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Liquidity and Asset Prices written by Yakov Amihud and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2006 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Liquidity and Asset Prices reviews the literature that studies the relationship between liquidity and asset prices. The authors review the theoretical literature that predicts how liquidity affects a security's required return and discuss the empirical connection between the two. Liquidity and Asset Prices surveys the theory of liquidity-based asset pricing followed by the empirical evidence. The theory section proceeds from basic models with exogenous holding periods to those that incorporate additional elements of risk and endogenous holding periods. The empirical section reviews the evidence on the liquidity premium for stocks, bonds, and other financial assets.

Download or read book Investment Theory and Risk Management written by Steven Peterson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-04-18 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique perspective on applied investment theory and risk management from the Senior Risk Officer of a major pension fund Investment Theory and Risk Management is a practical guide to today's investment environment. The book's sophisticated quantitative methods are examined by an author who uses these methods at the Virginia Retirement System and teaches them at the Virginia Commonwealth University. In addition to showing how investment performance can be evaluated, using Jensen's Alpha, Sharpe's Ratio, and DDM, he delves into four types of optimal portfolios (one that is fully invested, one with targeted returns, another with no short sales, and one with capped investment allocations). In addition, the book provides valuable insights on risk, and topics such as anomalies, factor models, and active portfolio management. Other chapters focus on private equity, structured credit, optimal rebalancing, data problems, and Monte Carlo simulation. Contains investment theory and risk management spreadsheet models based on the author's own real-world experience with stock, bonds, and alternative assets Offers a down-to-earth guide that can be used on a daily basis for making common financial decisions with a new level of quantitative sophistication and rigor Written by the Director of Research and Senior Risk Officer for the Virginia Retirement System and an Associate Professor at Virginia Commonwealth University's School of Business Investment Theory and Risk Management empowers both the technical and non-technical reader with the essential knowledge necessary to understand and manage risks in any corporate or economic environment.