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Book Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis

Download or read book Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis written by Andy Pole and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-10-08 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practical in its approach, Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis provides the theories, methods, and tools necessary for forecasting and the analysis of time series. The authors unify the concepts, model forms, and modeling requirements within the framework of the dynamic linear mode (DLM). They include a complete theoretical development of the DLM and illustrate each step with analysis of time series data. Using real data sets the authors: Explore diverse aspects of time series, including how to identify, structure, explain observed behavior, model structures and behaviors, and interpret analyses to make informed forecasts Illustrate concepts such as component decomposition, fundamental model forms including trends and cycles, and practical modeling requirements for routine change and unusual events Conduct all analyses in the BATS computer programs, furnishing online that program and the more than 50 data sets used in the text The result is a clear presentation of the Bayesian paradigm: quantified subjective judgements derived from selected models applied to time series observations. Accessible to undergraduates, this unique volume also offers complete guidelines valuable to researchers, practitioners, and advanced students in statistics, operations research, and engineering.

Book Handbook of Bayesian Variable Selection

Download or read book Handbook of Bayesian Variable Selection written by Mahlet G. Tadesse and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-12-24 with total page 762 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian variable selection has experienced substantial developments over the past 30 years with the proliferation of large data sets. Identifying relevant variables to include in a model allows simpler interpretation, avoids overfitting and multicollinearity, and can provide insights into the mechanisms underlying an observed phenomenon. Variable selection is especially important when the number of potential predictors is substantially larger than the sample size and sparsity can reasonably be assumed. The Handbook of Bayesian Variable Selection provides a comprehensive review of theoretical, methodological and computational aspects of Bayesian methods for variable selection. The topics covered include spike-and-slab priors, continuous shrinkage priors, Bayes factors, Bayesian model averaging, partitioning methods, as well as variable selection in decision trees and edge selection in graphical models. The handbook targets graduate students and established researchers who seek to understand the latest developments in the field. It also provides a valuable reference for all interested in applying existing methods and/or pursuing methodological extensions. Features: Provides a comprehensive review of methods and applications of Bayesian variable selection. Divided into four parts: Spike-and-Slab Priors; Continuous Shrinkage Priors; Extensions to various Modeling; Other Approaches to Bayesian Variable Selection. Covers theoretical and methodological aspects, as well as worked out examples with R code provided in the online supplement. Includes contributions by experts in the field. Supported by a website with code, data, and other supplementary material

Book Bayesian Variable Selection for Nowcasting Economic Time Series

Download or read book Bayesian Variable Selection for Nowcasting Economic Time Series written by Steven L. Scott and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider the problem of short-term time series forecasting (nowcasting) when there are more possible predictors than observations. Our approach combines three Bayesian techniques: Kalman filtering, spike-and-slab regression, and model averaging. We illustrate this approach using search engine query data as predictors for consumer sentiment and gun sales.

Book Jointness in Bayesian Variable Selection with Applications to Growth Regression

Download or read book Jointness in Bayesian Variable Selection with Applications to Growth Regression written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Selected Water Resources Abstracts

Download or read book Selected Water Resources Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book A Selected Annotated Bibliography on the Analysis of Water Resource Systems

Download or read book A Selected Annotated Bibliography on the Analysis of Water Resource Systems written by Water Resources Scientific Information Center and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Bayesian Variable Selection in Regression with Genetics Application

Download or read book Bayesian Variable Selection in Regression with Genetics Application written by Zayed Shahjahan and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this project, we consider a simple new approach to variable selection in linear regression based on the Sum-of-Single-Effects model. The approach is particularly well-suited to big-data settings where variables are highly correlated and effects are sparse. The approach shares the computational simplicity and speed of traditional stepwise methods of variable selection in regression, but instead of selecting a single variable at each step, computes a distribution on variables that captures uncertainty in which variable to select. This uncertainty in variable selection is summarized conveniently by credible sets of variables with an attached probability for the entire set. To illustrate the approach, we apply it to a big-data problem in genetics.

Book Essays on Bayesian Time Series and Variable Selection

Download or read book Essays on Bayesian Time Series and Variable Selection written by Debkumar De and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimating model parameters in dynamic model continues to be challenge. In my dissertation, we have introduced a Stochastic Approximation based parameter estimation approach under Ensemble Kalman Filter set-up. Asymptotic properties of the resultant estimates are discussed here. We have compared our proposed method to current methods via simulation studies. We have demonstrated predictive performance of our proposed method on a large spatio-temporal data. In my other topic, we presented a method for simultaneous estimation of regression parameters and the covariance matrix, developed for a nonparametric Seemingly Unrelated Regression problem. This is a very flexible modeling technique that essentially performs a sparse high-dimensional multiple predictor(p), multiple responses(q) regression where the responses may be correlated. Such data appear abundantly in the fields of genomics, finance and econometrics. We illustrate and compare performances of our proposed techniques with previous analyses using both simulated and real multivariate data arising in econometrics and government. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/152793

Book Nonparametric Regression Using Bayesian Variable Selection

Download or read book Nonparametric Regression Using Bayesian Variable Selection written by Michael Smith and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book A Bayesian Variable Selection Method with Applications to Spatial Data

Download or read book A Bayesian Variable Selection Method with Applications to Spatial Data written by Xiahan Tang and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis first describes the general idea behind Bayes Inference, various sampling methods based on Bayes theorem and many examples. Then a Bayes approach to model selection, called Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS) is discussed. It was originally proposed by George and McCulloch (1993). In a normal regression model where the number of covariates is large, only a small subset tend to be significant most of the times. This Bayes procedure specifies a mixture prior for each of the unknown regression coefficient, the mixture prior was originally proposed by Geweke (1996). This mixture prior will be updated as data becomes available to generate a posterior distribution that assigns higher posterior probabilities to coefficients that are significant in explaining the response. Spatial modeling method is described in this thesis. Prior distribution for all unknown parameters and latent variables are specified. Simulated studies under different models have been implemented to test the efficiency of SSVS. A real dataset taken by choosing a small region from the Cape Floristic Region in South Africa is used to analyze the plants distribution in that region. The original multi-cateogory response is transformed into a presence and absence (binary) response for simpler analysis. First, SSVS is used on this dataset to select the subset of significant covariates. Then a spatial model is fitted using the chosen covariates and, post-estimation, predictive map of posterior probabilities of presence and absence are obtained for the study region. Posterior estimates for the true regression coefficients are also provided along with map for spatial random effects.

Book Variable Selection in a Class of Bayesian Time Series Models

Download or read book Variable Selection in a Class of Bayesian Time Series Models written by Roberta Paroli and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Objective Bayesian Variable Selection for Censored Data

Download or read book Objective Bayesian Variable Selection for Censored Data written by Silvia Perra and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2013 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of survival analysis is to explain and predict the survival, usually defined along the time domain. In this work we study it by means of regression models. In statistical data analysis it is common to consider the regression set up in which a given response variable depends on some factors and/or covariates. The model selection problem mainly consists in choosing the covariates which better explain the dependent variable in a precise and hopefully fast manner. This process usually has several steps: the first one is to collect considerations from an expert about the set of covariates, then the statistician derives a prior on model parameters and constructs a tool to solve the model selection problem. We consider the model selection problem in survival analysis when the response variable is the time to event. Under an objective Bayesian approach, some commonly used tools in literature are the Intrinsic Bayes factor (IBF) and the Fractional Bayes factor (FBF). In this thesis we deal with the variable selection problem for censored data.

Book Bayesian Variable Selection for Non Gaussian Data Using Global Local Shrinkage Priors and the Multivaraite Logit Beta Distribution

Download or read book Bayesian Variable Selection for Non Gaussian Data Using Global Local Shrinkage Priors and the Multivaraite Logit Beta Distribution written by Hongyu Wu and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Variable selection methods have become an important and growing problem in Bayesian analysis. The literature on Bayesian variable selection methods tends to be applied to a single response- type, and more typically, a continuous response-type, where it is assumed that the data is Gaus- sian/symmetric. In this dissertation, we develop a novel global-local shrinkage prior in non- symmetric settings and multiple response-types settings by combining the perspectives of global- local shrinkage and the conjugate multivaraite distribution. In Chapter 2, we focus on the problem of variable selection when the data is possibly non- symmetric continuous-valued. We propose modeling continuous-valued data and the coefficient vector with the multivariate logit-beta (MLB) distribution. To perform variable selection in a Bayesian context we make use of shrinkage global-local priors to enforce sparsity. Specifically, they can be defined as a Gaussian scale mixture of a global shrinkage parameter and a local shrinkage parameter for a regression coefficient. We provide a technical discussion that illustrates that our use of the multivariate logit-beta distribution under a P ́olya-Gamma augmentation scheme has an explicit connection to a well-known global-local shrinkage method (id est, the horseshoe prior) and extends it to possibly non-symmetric data. Moreover, our method can be implemented using an efficient block Gibbs sampler. Evidence of improvements in terms of mean squared error and variable selection as compared to the standard implementation of the horseshoe prior for skewed data settings is provided in simulated and real data examples. In Chapter 3, we direct our attention to the canonical variable selection problem in multiple response-types settings, where the observed dataset consists of multiple response-types (e.g., con- tinuous, count-valued, Bernoulli trials, et cetera). We propose the same global-local shrinkage prior in Chapter 2 but for multiple response-types datasets. The implementation of our Bayesian variable selection method to such data types is straightforward given the fact that the multivariate logit-beta prior is the conjugate prior for several members from the natural exponential family of distributions, which leads to the binomial/beta and negative binomial/beta hierarchical models. Our proposed model not just allows the estimation and selection of independent regression coefficients, but also those of shared regression coefficients across-response-types, which can be used to explicitly model dependence in spatial and time-series settings. An efficient block Gibbs sampler is developed, which is found to be effective in obtaining accurate estimates and variable selection results in simulation studies and an analysis of public health and financial costs from natural disasters in the U.S.