Download or read book Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity written by Mr.George Kopits and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of government financial failure stemming from the volatility and comovements of the exchange rate, interest rates, oil prices, and output. Although dollarization has helped attenuate fiscal vulnerability, the volatility of sovereign spreads and of oil prices remain major sources of risk for Ecuador's public sector. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications, an evaluation of the methodology, and suggestions for future research.
Download or read book Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank IMF s Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries written by Mr.Andrew Berg and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-03-27 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden (the “debt threshold approach” DTA). The DSF contains a rule for aggregating the information contained in these five different variables which we label the “worst-case aggregator” (WCA) in view of the fact that the DSF considers a breach of any one of the thresholds sufficient to indicate a high risk of debt distress. However, neither the DTA nor the WCA has heretofore been subject to empirical testing. We find that: (1) the DTA loses information relative to a simple proposed alternative; (2) the WCA is too conservative (predicting crises too often) in terms of the loss function used in the DSF; and (3) the WCA is less accurate than some simple proposed alternative aggregators as a predictor of debt distress.
Download or read book Assessing Fiscal Space An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-06-23 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept reflecting whether a government can raise spending or lower taxes without endangering market access and debt sustainability. Making such a determination requires a comprehensive approach considering, among other things, initial economic and structural conditions, market access, the level and trajectory of public debt, present and future financing needs, and dynamic analysis of the liquidity and solvency of the fiscal position under alternative policies. Balancing these considerations involves careful analysis and judgment. Fund staff has over the years developed a variety of indicators to inform assessments of fiscal space in bilateral and multilateral surveillance. The Fund’s core operational framework for such analysis is the debt sustainability framework, which includes a number of indicators, while allowing room for staff judgment. Surveillance also relies importantly on indicators developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD)––including those that have been used in the internal Vulnerability Exercise and Fiscal Monitors––while more recent methods based on fiscal stress tests and probabilistic approaches proposed in IMF (2016) are also promising. In addition, teams have used scenario analysis and general equilibrium modeling approaches to evaluate fiscal policy choices and their implications for sustainability. When applied to fiscal space, each indicator and approach has pros and cons and none covers all the relevant factors. Ultimately, therefore, assessing fiscal space requires judgment, informed by a broad range of tools. This note seeks to bring together various approaches developed by Fund staff to outline a consistent set of considerations and indicators to help inform assessments of fiscal space, especially for advanced and emerging markets. The intent is to facilitate continued consistency between country team assessments by providing some common considerations and approaches to inform their judgment. The proposed framework will support Fund surveillance and policy advice going forward, informing discussions of the appropriate fiscal stance at all stages of the economic cycle.
Download or read book Sustainability Assessment written by Alan James Bond and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currently the writing on the subject is limited and comprises, for the most part, guidance documents and completed assessments.
Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice written by Craig Burnside and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Topics discussed in this publication include: an introduction to theoretical and practical aspects of fiscal sustainability; theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis; debt indicators in the measurement of vulnerability; cyclical adjustment of budget surplus; pro-cyclical fiscal policy using Mexico's fiscal accounts as a case study; fiscal rules and the experience of Chile; currency crises and models for deal with financing costs.
Download or read book Methods for Assessing the Socioeconomic Impacts of Large scale Resource Developments written by Steve H. Murdock and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability written by Ms.Jocelyn Horne and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-01-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the usefulness of summary measures of fiscal sustainability for the purpose of multilateral surveillance. An overview of the main conceptual issues is first presented. Next, an assessment is made of the strengths and weaknesses of the summary measures in the context of their recent application to industrial countries by the OECD and the Fund. The measures are shown to highlight the inadequacy of using trends in public debt ratios to assess sustainability. However, the measures and their recent application are subject to a number of caveats, in particular in relation to their sensitivity to the discount rate, time paths of government expenditures and private sector behavior.
Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 776 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sustainable Assessment of Alternative Sites for the Construction of a Waste Incineration Plant by Applying WASPAS Method with Single Valued Neutrosophic Set written by Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas and published by Infinite Study. This book was released on with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The principles of sustainability have become particularly important in the construction, real estate maintenance sector, and all areas of life in recent years. The one of the major problem of urban territories that domestic and construction waste of generated products cannot be removed automatically. The above necessity induces the demand of systems and technologies for waste life cycle and proper disposal development.
Download or read book Public Private Partnerships Government Guarantees and Fiscal Risk written by Mr.Barry Anderson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-04-28 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public-private partnerships (PPPs) refer to arrangements under which the private sector supplies infrastructure assets and infrastructure-based services that traditionally have been provided by the government. PPPs are used for a wide range of economic and social infrastructure projects, but they are used mainly to build and operate roads, bridges and tunnels, light rail networks, airports and air traffic control systems, prisons, water and sanitation plants, hospitals, schools, and public buildings. PPPs offer benefits similar to those offered by privatization, which is the sale of government-owned enterprises or assets. By the late 1990s, when privatization was losing much of its earlier momentum, PPPs began to be widely seen as a means of obtaining private sector capital and management expertise for infrastructure investment. After a modest start, a wave of PPPs is now beginning to sweep the world. This Special Issue paper provides an overview of some of the issues raised by PPPs, with a particular focus on their fiscal consequences. It also looks at government guarantees, which are used fairly widely to shield the private sector from risk and are a common feature of PPPs. And it examines the consequences of PPPs and guarantees for debt sustainability. The paper concludes with a list of measures that can maximize the benefits and minimize the fiscal risks associated with the use of PPPs. Various appendices augment the discussion by examining country experiences with PPPs, summarizing the statistical reporting framework used to discuss fiscal accounting and reporting, explaining accounting for risk transfer, examining how guarantees are modeled and estimated in Chile, and summarizing international accounting and reporting standards for contingent liabilities.
Download or read book Socioeconomic Environmental Studies Series written by and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises written by Federico Sturzenegger and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2007-01-05 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Detailed case studies of debt defaults by Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Moldova, and Uruguay, framed by a comprehensive discussion of the history, economic theory, legal issues, and policy lessons of sovereign debt crises. The debt crises in emerging market countries over the past decade have given rise to renewed debate about crisis prevention and resolution. In Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises, Federico Sturzenegger and Jeromin Zettelmeyer examine the facts, the economic theory, and the policy implications of sovereign debt crises. They present detailed case histories of the default and debt crises in seven emerging market countries between 1998 and 2005: Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Argentina, Moldova, and Uruguay. These accounts are framed with a comprehensive overview of the history, economics, and legal issues involved and a discussion from both domestic and international perspectives of the policy lessons that can be derived from these experiences. Sturzenegger and Zettelmeyer examine how each crisis developed, what the subsequent restructuring encompassed, and how investors and the defaulting country fared. They discuss the new theoretical thinking on sovereign debt and the ultimate costs entailed, for both debtor countries and private creditors. The policy debate is considered first from the perspective of policymakers in emerging market countries and then in terms of international financial architecture. The authors' surveys of legal and economic issues associated with debt crises, and of the crises themselves, are the most comprehensive to be found in the literature on sovereign debt and default, and their theoretical analysis is detailed and nuanced. The book will be a valuable resource for investors as well as for scholars and policymakers.
Download or read book East west Corridor Alternatives Analysis draft Environmental Statement Milwaukee Wisconsin written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bolivia written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-18 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bolivia has achieved strong economic performance and poverty reduction over the past decade. Real GDP growth has averaged about 5 percent since 2006, and the poverty ratio has declined by 16 percentage points. Real GDP growth is projected to stay relatively strong at 4.1 percent in 2015, despite the sharp decline in oil prices that is starting to have an impact. A sizable public investment budget, strong credit growth to the private sector, and robust private consumption are expected to support activity. Growth is expected to decelerate to 3.5 percent over the medium term, as the full impact of the new commodity price normal is felt.
Download or read book The External Balance Assessment EBA Methodology written by Mr.Steven Phillips and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing between the positive empirical analysis and the normative assessment of current accounts and exchange rates, and highlights the roles of policies and policy distortions. This paper provides a comprehensive description and discussion of the 2013 version (“2.0”) of the EBA methodology, including areas for its further development.
Download or read book Green Fiscal Rules Challenges and Policy Alternatives written by Francesca Caselli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-06-21 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the impact of green fiscal rules – designed to protect climate-related spending –on debt dynamics. Simulations of green rules that exempt green spending from the rule limits for an emergingmarket economy illustrate that they can lead to unsustainable debt dynamics when the net zero emissions goal is pursued mostly using spending-based instruments (e.g., investment and subsidies). Or the rule would need to implicitly assume a large fiscal adjustment in the non-green budget, which would undermine its credibility. It will be needed to build broad public consensus for a more comprehensive fiscal strategy that tackles the difficult policy tradeoffs that will be required and takes into account long-term effects. A more appropriate mix of climate policies, including actively employing carbon pricing, should be pursued within the overall setting of fiscal and debt objectives. Developing ‘green’ medium-term fiscal frameworks would help to integrate climate change considerations into fiscal policy design in a more comprehensive manner.
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty written by Rossen Rozenov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-13 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of invariant sets. Examples are provided to illustrate how the method can be applied in practice.
