Download or read book New Determinants of Analysts Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Tanja Klettke and published by Springer Science & Business. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.
Download or read book The Accuracy of Analyst Forecasts written by Patrick J. Butler and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2002-12-04 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: This paper investigates the quality of financial analysts' earnings forecasts for companies which conducted initial public offerings (IPOs) during the years 1997 to 1999. The Neue Markt in Frankfurt offers a good setting to also study the development of a young market from the beginning of its operation onwards. I find support for the notion that initial returns and analysts' forecast accuracy are negatively related. I find that analysts' forecasts were by no means accurate. Mean forecast deviation, measured as percent deviation from actual earnings per share for the fiscal year, is 186.61 percent for the average broker. The sample is inhibited by serious availability problems, but all the same allows significant findings. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.Introduction5 2.Literature10 2.1Banking systems the German framework10 2.2Conflict of interest as regulated in the German legal system12 2.3The quality of analysts' forecasts and conflicts of interest16 2.4The long-run underperformance phenomenon23 2.5Predicting the aftermarket performance of IPOs27 2.6Summary39 3.Data41 4.Method49 5.Empirical Results53 5.1IPOs differentiated by year of issue53 5.2Disparities of actual values58 5.3Earning per share found in annual reports as basis62 5.4IPOs differentiated by industry classification67 5.5Percentage deviations differentiated by Brokers73 6.Additional Results80 6.1Large German banks seasoned vs. IPO companies80 6.2The time factor86 6.3The relevance of accounting policy88 7.Summary and Conclusion92 8.References95
Download or read book Financial Analysts Forecasts and Stock Recommendations written by Sundaresh Ramnath and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
Download or read book Company Valuation and Information in Analyst Forecasts written by Daniel Kreutzmann and published by Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH. This book was released on 2010 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis focuses on the three primitive value drivers of each company valuation model that is based on fundamental analysis: the discount rate, the expected future payoffs during the explicit forecasting period, and the terminal value at the end of the explicit forecasting period. While the first factor is analyzed theoretically by incorporating the government into the classical valuation framework, this thesis studies the other two factors by investigating forecasts made by professional investors, i.e. financial analysts. In the first part we show that the government's and the shareholders discount rate usually differ and analyze how the government's and shareholders different objectives lead to conflicts in the context of capital budgeting. The empirical part of this thesis shows that macroeconomic information is frequently used by financial analysts when updating their earnings expecations and that target price forecastsmade by financial analysts can be used to predict abnormal returns.
Download or read book Accounting for Income Taxes written by John R. Graham and published by Now Pub. This book was released on 2012-11-09 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accounting for Income Taxes is the most comprehensive review of AFIT research. It is designed both to introduce new scholars to this field and to encourage active researchers to expand frontiers related to accounting for income taxes. Accounting for Income Taxes includes both a primer about the rules governing AFIT (Sections 3-4) and a review of the scholarly studies in the field (Sections 5-8). The primer uses accessible examples and clear language to express essential AFIT rules and institutional features. Section 3 reviews the basic rules and institutional details governing AFIT. Section 4 discusses ways that researchers, policymakers, and other interested parties can use the tax information in financial statements to better approximate information in the tax return. The second half of the monograph reviews the extant scholarly studies by splitting the research literature into four topics: earnings management, the association between book-tax differences and earnings characteristics, the equity market pricing of information in the tax accounts, and book-tax conformity. Section 5 focuses on the use of the tax accounts to manage earnings through the valuation allowance, the income tax contingency, and permanently reinvested foreign earnings. Section 6 discusses the association between book-tax differences and earnings characteristics, namely earnings growth and earnings persistence. Section 7 explores how tax information is reflected in share prices. Section 8 reviews the increased alignment of accounting for book purposes and tax purposes. The remainder of the paper focuses on topics of general interest in the economics and econometric literatures. Section 9 highlights some issues of general importance including a theoretical framework to interpret and guide empirical AFIT studies, the disaggregated components of book-tax differences and research opportunities as the U.S. moves toward International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Section 10 discusses econometric weaknesses that are common in AFIT research and proposes ways to mitigate their deleterious effects.
Download or read book Best Practices for Equity Research PB written by James Valentine and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2011-01-07 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first real-world guide for training equity research analysts—from a Morgan Stanley veteran Addresses the dearth of practical training materials for research analysts in the U.S. and globally Valentine managed a department of 70 analysts and 100 associates at Morgan Stanley and developed new programs for over 500 employees around the globe He will promote the book through his company's extensive outreach capabilities
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book International Perspectives on Accounting and Corporate Behavior written by Kunio Ito and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the globalization of accounting standards occurring through convergence to International Financial Reporting Standards, local accounting systems are deeply intertwined with each country’s unique institutions such as its corporate system, disclosure practices and enforcement mechanisms. First, this book empirically analyzes the effects of globalization and localization of accounting rules on corporate behavior such as earnings management, signaling, investment behavior and dividend payout policy. Second, the book unravels the economic consequences of disclosure based on the concept of self-disciplining enforcement such as management forecasts, environmental disclosures and risk disclosures by Japanese firms. This volume is a step forward in understanding the link between accounting and corporate behavior based on a new institutional accounting approach.
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Download or read book Investment Valuation written by Aswath Damodaran and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-16 with total page 992 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The definitive source of information on all topics related to investment valuation tools and techniques Valuation is at the heart of any investment decision, whether that decision is buy, sell or hold. But the pricing of many assets has become a more complex task in modern markets, especially after the recent financial crisis. In order to be successful at this endeavor, you must have a firm understanding of the proper valuation techniques. One valuation book stands out as withstanding the test of time among investors and students of financial markets, Aswath Damodaran'sInvestment Valuation. Now completely revised and updated to reflect changing market conditions, this third edition comprehensively introduces investment professionals and students to the range of valuation models available and how to chose the right model for any given asset valuation scenario. This edition includes valuation techniques for a whole host of real options, start-up firms, unconventional assets, distressed companies and private equity, and real estate. All examples have been updated and new material has been added. Fully revised to incorporate valuation lessons learned from the last five years, from the market crisis and emerging markets to new types of equity investments Includes valuation practices across the life cycle of companies and emphasizes value enhancement measures, such as EVA and CFROI Contains a new chapter on probabilistic valuation techniques such as decision trees and Monte Carlo Simulation Author Aswath Damodaran is regarded as one of the best educators and thinkers on the topic of investment valuation This indispensable guide is a must read for anyone wishing to gain a better understanding of investment valuation and its methods. With it, you can take the insights and advice of a recognized authority on the valuation process and immediately put them to work for you.
Download or read book Neighbor Networks written by Ronald S. Burt and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2010-01-14 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a moral to this book, a bit of Confucian wisdom often ignored in social network analysis: "Worry not that no one knows you, seek to be worth knowing." This advice is contrary to the usual social network emphasis on securing relations with well-connected people. Neighbor Networks examines the cases of analysts, bankers, and managers, and finds that rewards, in fact, do go to people with well-connected colleagues. Look around your organization. The individuals doing well tend to be affiliated with well-connected colleagues. However, the advantage obvious to the naked eye is misleading. It disappears when an individual's own characteristics are held constant. Well-connected people do not have to affiliate with people who have nothing to offer. This book shows that affiliation with well-connected people adds stability but no advantage to a person's own connections. Advantage is concentrated in people who are themselves well connected. This book is a trail of argument and evidence that leads to the conclusion that individuals make a lot of their own network advantage. The social psychology of networks moves to center stage and personal responsibility emerges as a key theme. In the end, the social is affirmed, but with an emphasis on individual agency and the social psychology of networks. The research gives new emphasis to Coleman's initial image of social capital as a forcing function for human capital. This book is for academics and researchers of organizational and network studies interested in a new angle on familiar data, and as a supplemental reading in graduate courses on social networks, stratification, or organizations. A variety of research settings are studied, and diverse theoretical perspectives are taken. The book's argument and evidence are supported by ample appendices for readers interested in background details.
Download or read book Capital Market Implications of Earnings Quality written by Bianca Ahrens and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2010 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In his speech from 1998 the former chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Arthur Levitt pointed out that trust "is the bedrock of our capital markets" and that this must not be shaken by the erosion of earnings quality. He made clear that it is the challenge of the whole financial community to counteract such a development. This thesis deals with the question whether the importance of earnings for the capital market varies with its quality. The question arises, because in recent years a large number of firm scandals has shaken the trust in the reliability of reported earnings. In order to properly address the research questions, the literature on earnings quality definitions, quality measures as well as implications of earnings quality on capital markets is reviewed and critically discussed. The author investigates whether well known results concerning capital market implications of earnings quality remain stable for all measures considered. She answers the question of how earnings quality affects firm value, cost of equity capital, and the accuracy of analysts' forecasts taking into account the effects of determinants of earnings quality.
Download or read book Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Sebastian Gell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-26 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Download or read book Robust Regression written by Kenneth D. Lawrence and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-05-20 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robust Regression: Analysis and Applications characterizes robust estimators in terms of how much they weight each observation discusses generalized properties of Lp-estimators. Includes an algorithm for identifying outliers using least absolute value criterion in regression modeling reviews redescending M-estimators studies Li linear regression proposes the best linear unbiased estimators for fixed parameters and random errors in the mixed linear model summarizes known properties of Li estimators for time series analysis examines ordinary least squares, latent root regression, and a robust regression weighting scheme and evaluates results from five different robust ridge regression estimators.
Download or read book Handbook of Security Analyst Forecasting and Asset Allocation written by John Guerard and published by JAI Press(NY). This book was released on 1993 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part of a series on contemporary studies in economic and financial analysis, this volume focuses on security analyst forecasting and asset allocation. Topics include market response to earning forecasts; and the effectiveness of security analysts' forecasts; among others.
Download or read book Investment Philosophies written by Aswath Damodaran and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-07-31 with total page 615 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The guide for investors who want a better understanding of investment strategies that have stood the test of time This thoroughly revised and updated edition of Investment Philosophies covers different investment philosophies and reveal the beliefs that underlie each one, the evidence on whether the strategies that arise from the philosophy actually produce results, and what an investor needs to bring to the table to make the philosophy work. The book covers a wealth of strategies including indexing, passive and activist value investing, growth investing, chart/technical analysis, market timing, arbitrage, and many more investment philosophies. Presents the tools needed to understand portfolio management and the variety of strategies available to achieve investment success Explores the process of creating and managing a portfolio Shows readers how to profit like successful value growth index investors Aswath Damodaran is a well-known academic and practitioner in finance who is an expert on different approaches to valuation and investment This vital resource examines various investing philosophies and provides you with helpful online resources and tools to fully investigate each investment philosophy and assess whether it is a philosophy that is appropriate for you.
Download or read book Analyzing the Analysts written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Financial Services. Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
