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Book Aircraft Collision Models

Download or read book Aircraft Collision Models written by Shinsuke Endoh and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction: The threat of midair collisions is one of the most serious problems facing the air traffic control system and has been studied by many researchers. The gas model is one of the models which describe the expected frequency of midair collisions. In this paper, the gas model which has been used, so far, to deal only with simple cases is extended to a generalized form, and some special types of collision models, such as the overtaking model, are deduced from this generalized model. The effects of the probability distributions of aircraft direction and altitude on the frequency of collisions are also analyzed. The results in this paper can be applied to evaluate the frequency of conflicts as well as that of collisions. In this paper, an aircraft is represented as a circular cylinder, and a collision is described as an overlap of two cylinders. If the size of the cylinder is expanded to the volume of the protected airspace of an aircraft, an overlap of two cylinders means a conflict. Therefore, with a slight modification, the results can be used to analyze the frequency of conflicts. This flexibility gives the models of this paper an important potential for application to a future air traffic control system. The FAA is currently developing a new type of air traffic control system called AERA (automated en route air traffic control). AERA is expected to reduce the workload of human controllers and expand the capacity of airspace using new computer systems and better communication links. When this system is fully implemented, aircraft will be able to fly under fewer restrictions. However, if many aircraft are flying on random routes, the frequency of potential conflicts the computer system should handle becomes high. Therefore, the frequency of potential conflicts under various circumstances should be calculated in order to estimate the computer workload before full implementation of the system. The models developed in this paper may be helpful in this evaluation. The consequences of actual collisions are, of course, grave. Fortunately, the average number of such collisions per year has remained relatively small. According to an FAA Report (Report of the FAA Task Force on Aircraft Separation Assurance, Jan. 1979), the average number of midair collisions reported to NTSB from 1974 through 1978 was 33 per year. Most midair collisions have occurred between small general aviation aircraft operating under VFR. However, the report also states that there were 227 near midair collision reports in 1975 alone, and that air carriers were involved in 68 of these cases. (According to the report, a near midair collision is an incident which would probably have resulted in a collision if no action had been taken by either pilot. Closest proximity of less than 500 ft would usually be required for a near midair collision report.) Although the number of conflicts is not available in the report, it is clearly far greater than the number of near midair collisions considering the difference of airspace volumes involved. The outline of this thesis is as follows. In Chapter 2, we present an overview of two aircraft collision models, the Reich model and the gas model, which have been the most important ones in this field. In Chapter 3, we develop some extensions of the gas model including a generalized two-dimensional gas model, an overtaking model and a three dimensional gas model. In Chapter 4, we develop an aircraft collision model which does not assume the uniformity of aircraft distribution. The conclusions of this thesis are summarized in Chapter 5.

Book Near Midair Collisions as an Indicator of General Aviation Collision Risk

Download or read book Near Midair Collisions as an Indicator of General Aviation Collision Risk written by H. Paul Shuch and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Conventional wisdom suggests aircraft midair collisions to be random events, governed by the laws of Brownian Motion, and best analyzed by stochastic methods. An alternative hypothesis, that such accidents are deterministic in nature, and that specific factors leading to midair collisions can be identified and mitigated, forms the basis for this Dissertation. A predictive model using case control theory is developed for assessing Risk Index, a criterion measure of midair collision likelihood, for any General Aviation flight, actual or hypothetical. Generating the model requires statistical validation of two independent near midair collision databases, and identifying within them those aircraft, aircrew and airspace characteristics most closely associated with collision risk. Calibration of the model shows reality to fall somewhere between the stochastic and deterministic assumptions. A statistically significant correlation is found between predicted and observed Risk Index for a sizable random sample of flights, with a resulting Coefficient of Determination of 0.25. This suggests that we have identified 25% of the source of variance in midair collision risk, the remaining 75% being random. Therefore we can realistically hope to reduce midair collisions by roughly 25%. Strategies for mitigating the identified causal factors are proposed. Measures to reduce the random, remaining 75% of collision risk are also explored. However, these appear to require a significant overhaul of Air Traffic Control procedures, which must be approached with caution, to guard against the attendant possibility of curtailing capacity in the Air Transportation System."--Page 1-2

Book Mathematical Models of Collision Risk with Respect to Aircraft Operations

Download or read book Mathematical Models of Collision Risk with Respect to Aircraft Operations written by W. G. R. Medland and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book A STAMP Model of the berlingen Aircraft Collision Accident

Download or read book A STAMP Model of the berlingen Aircraft Collision Accident written by Brian Wong and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: STAMP is a method for evaluating accidents that is based on systems theory. It departs from traditional event chain models that tend to focus on human errors instead of the goals and motives that triggered the errors. The thesis presents a STAMP model of the mid-air collision that occurred on July 1, 2002 near Uberlingen, Germany. This model focuses on the air traffic controller in charge of the aircraft that collided and the surrounding central environment at ACC Zurich, which was the ATC center controlling the aircraft at the time. First the components in the system are analyzed to determine their roles in the system and to identify the safety-related issues. Next, the interactions of the components and the resulting communications failure are studied. Conclusions as to the causes of the accident are presented. A system dynamics model of the control room environment is constructed and studied to determine how the issues relating to the accident developed over time. Finally, the findings from the STAMP model are summarized and recommendations are made based on the analysis. The recommendations based on the model agree with those of the official accident investigation report; in addition, several new recommendations are made.

Book Best Practices for Crash Modeling and Simulation

Download or read book Best Practices for Crash Modeling and Simulation written by Edwin L. Fasanella and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Near Midair Collision Report of 1968

Download or read book Near Midair Collision Report of 1968 written by United States. Near Midair Collision Study Group and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Human Factors Models for Aviation Accident Analysis and Prevention

Download or read book Human Factors Models for Aviation Accident Analysis and Prevention written by Thomas G.C. Griffin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The investigation and modelling of aviation accident causation is dominated by linear models. Aviation is, however, a complex system and as such suffers from being artificially manipulated into non-complex models and methods. This book addresses this issue by developing a new approach to investigating aviation accident causation through information networks. These networks centralise communication and the flow of information as key indicators of a system’s health and risk. This holistic approach focuses on the system environment, the activity that takes place within it, the strategies used to conduct this activity, the way in which the constituent parts of the system (both human and non-human) interact and the behaviour required. Each stage of this book identifies and expands upon the potential of the information network approach, maintaining firm focus on the overall health of a system. The book’s new model offers many potential developments and some key areas are studied in this research. Through the centralisation of barriers and information nodes the method can be applied to almost any situation. The application of Bayesian mathematics to historical data populations provides scope for studying error migration and barrier manipulation. The book also provides application of these predictions to a flight simulator study for the purposes of validation. Beyond this it also discusses the applicability of the approach to industry. Through working with a legacy airline the methods discussed are used as the basis for a new and prospective safety management system.

Book Collision Risk Model for High Density Airspaces

Download or read book Collision Risk Model for High Density Airspaces written by Francisco Javier Saez Nieto and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This chapter describes a collision risk model (CRM) of airspace scenarios to describe their safety levels when populated by given air traffic. The model requires the use of representative data, containing a description of the flown aircraft trajectories. It is a combination of deterministic and probabilistic mathematical tools able to estimate the level of safety. Furthermore, the model captures the frequency and spatial distribution of the encounters and conflicts, the time in advance the conflict is identified and the overall reaction time of the Air Traffic Control ATC system, and finally, the effectiveness of the ATC as safety layer. The model considers that the risk of an air miss depends on two different factors: on the one hand, the frequency of exposure to risks and, on the other, the chance of collision associated to this exposure. The exposure to risk is captured following a deterministic data-driven approach, whereas the associated chance of collision is derived from a statistical mathematical model, fed by the kinematics of the encounter and the statistics associated to the accuracy of the aircraft state vector when following a planned trajectory.

Book Aircraft Accident Report

Download or read book Aircraft Accident Report written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Conceptual Model for Collision Detection and Avoidance for Runway Incursion Prevention

Download or read book Conceptual Model for Collision Detection and Avoidance for Runway Incursion Prevention written by Bridgette A. Latimer and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Transportation and Safety Board (NTSB), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), numerous corporate entities, and research facilities have each come together to determine ways to make air travel safer and more efficient. These efforts have resulted in the development of a concept known as the Next Generation (Next Gen) of Aircraft or Next Gen. The Next Gen concept promises to be a clear departure from the way in which aircraft operations are performed today. The Next Gen initiatives require that modifications are made to the existing National Airspace System (NAS) concept of operations, system level requirements, software (SW) and hardware (HW) requirements, SW and HW designs and implementations. A second example of the changes in the NAS is the shift away from air traffic controllers having the responsibility for separation assurance. In the proposed new scheme of free flight, each aircraft would be responsible for assuring that it is safely separated from surrounding aircraft. Free flight would allow the separation minima for enroute aircraft to be reduced from 2000 nautical miles (nm) to 1000 nm. Simply put "Free Flight is a concept of air traffic management that permits pilots and controllers to share information and work together to manage air traffic from pre-flight through arrival without compromising safety [107]." The primary goal of this research project was to create a conceptual model that embodies the essential ingredients needed for a collision detection and avoidance system. This system was required to operate in two modes: air traffic controller's perspective and pilot's perspective. The secondary goal was to demonstrate that the technologies, procedures, and decision logic embedded in the conceptual model were able to effectively detect and avoid collision risks from both perspectives. Embodied in the conceptual model are five distinct software modules: Data Acquisition, State Processor, Projection, Collision Detection, and Alerting and Resolution. The underlying algorithms in the Projection module are linear projection and Kalman filtering which are used to estimate the future state of the aircraft. The Resolution and Alerting module is comprised of two algorithms: a generic alerting algorithm and the potential fields algorithm [71]. The conceptual model was created using Enterprise Architect RTM and MATLAB RTM was used to code the methods and to simulate conflict scenarios. -- Abstract.

Book Description of the Derivation of the Collision Risk Model Used in the Vertical Separation Simulation Risk Model

Download or read book Description of the Derivation of the Collision Risk Model Used in the Vertical Separation Simulation Risk Model written by Joseph M. Richie and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report presents a brief description of the derivation of the collision risk equations for the use on the vertical separation Midair Collision Simulation Risk Model. It also describes the estimation of the Collision Risk Model parameters for the current 2000-foot standard and the proposed 1000-foot planned vertical separation standard. The model itself consist of specialized computer programs and systematic procedures that realistically and economically simulate aircraft flight-planned movements in the National Airspace System (NAS). These aircraft movements are based on flight plans and tracking data transmitted to Central Flow Control FAcility (CFCF) from all the 20 centers that make up the NAS. The task is to find the frequency, Na, with which a pair of aircraft flying at and above flight level (FL)290 would, by flight-planned intent, be proximate (near each other) in the NAS. The purpose of this mathematical model is to make a quantitative judgement about the safety of the proposed 1000-foot vertical separation, and provide an estimate of the risk of midair collision due to the loss of 1000-foot planned vertical separation. As the result of this first phase of the study, it is recommended that the model be enhanced to do the following: 1) step climbing, and 2) point-to-point navigation. Keywords: Tracking system; Proximity shell; Separation vectors; Collision slab; Central flow.

Book Probabilistic Estimation of Rare Random Collisions in 3 Space

Download or read book Probabilistic Estimation of Rare Random Collisions in 3 Space written by Timothy Holzmann and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: