Download or read book Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing of the Insurance Sector written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-22 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last decade, stress testing has become a central aspect of the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance work. Recently, more emphasis has also been placed on the role of insurance for financial stability analysis. This paper reviews the current state of system-wide solvency stress tests for insurance based on a comparative review of national practices and the experiences from Fund’s FSAP program with the aim of providing practical guidelines for the coherent and consistent implementation of such exercises. The paper also offers recommendations on improving the current insurance stress testing approaches and presentation of results.

Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.

Download or read book Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing written by Mr. Christian Schmieder and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a "second-generation" solvency stress testing framework extending applied stress testing work centered on Cihák (2007). The framework seeks enriching stress tests in terms of risk-sensitivity, while keeping them flexible, transparent, and user-friendly. The main contributions include (a) increasing the risk-sensitivity of stress testing by capturing changes in risk-weighted assets (RWAs) under stress, including for non-internal ratings based (IRB) banks (through a quasi-IRB approach); (b) providing stress testers with a comprehensive platform to use satellite models, and to define various assumptions and scenarios; (c) allowing stress testers to run multi-year scenarios (up to five years) for hundreds of banks, depending on the availability of data. The framework uses balance sheet data and is Excel-based with detailed guidance and documentation.

Download or read book Preparing for the Next Financial Crisis written by Esa Jokivuolle and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book uses perspectives of finance and banking to offer predictions on future financial crises, and how we can prepare for them.

Download or read book Portfolio Decision Analysis written by Ahti Salo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-08-12 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.

Download or read book Introduction to Applied Stress Testing written by Martin Cihák and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-03 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stress testing is a useful and increasingly popular, yet sometimes misunderstood, method of analyzing the resilience of financial systems to adverse events. This paper aims to help demystify stress tests, and illustrate their strengths and weaknesses. Using an Excel-based exercise with institution-by-institution data, readers are walked through stress testing for credit risk, interest rate and exchange rate risks, liquidity risk and contagion risk, and are guided in the design of stress testing scenarios. The paper also describes the links between stress testing and other analytical tools, such as financial soundness indicators and supervisory early warning systems. Furthermore, it includes surveys of stress testing practices in central banks and the IMF.

Download or read book Reverse Stress Testing in Banking written by Michael Eichhorn and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2021-05-10 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reverse stress testing was introduced in risk management as a regulatory tool for financial institutions more than a decade ago. The recent Covid-19 crisis illustrates its relevance and highlights the need for a systematic re-thinking of tail risks in the banking sector. This book addresses the need for practical guidance describing the entire reverse stress testing process. Reverse Stress Testing in Banking features contributions from a diverse range of established practitioners and academics. Organized in six parts, the book presents a series of contributions providing an in-depth understanding of: Regulatory requirements and ways to address them Quantitative and qualitative approaches to apply reverse stress testing at different levels – from investment portfolios and individual banks to the entire banking system The use of artificial intelligence, machine learning and quantum computing to gain insights into and address banks’ structural weaknesses Opportunities to co-integrate reverse stress testing with recovery and resolution planning Governance and processes for board members and C-suite executives Readers will benefit from the case studies, use cases from practitioners, discussion questions, recommendations and innovative practices provided in this insightful and pioneering book.

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Expected Credit Loss Modeling from a Top Down Stress Testing Perspective written by Mr.Marco Gross and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-03 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this paper is to present an integrated tool suite for IFRS 9- and CECL-compatible estimation in top-down solvency stress tests. The tool suite serves as an illustration for institutions wishing to include accounting-based approaches for credit risk modeling in top-down stress tests.

Download or read book Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests written by Mr.Dimitri G. Demekas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Giving stress tests a macroprudential perspective requires (i) incorporating general equilibrium dimensions, so that the outcome of the test depends not only on the size of the shock and the buffers of individual institutions but also on their behavioral responses and their interactions with each other and with other economic agents; and (ii) focusing on the resilience of the system as a whole. Progress has been made toward the first goal: several models are now available that attempt to integrate solvency, liquidity, and other sources of risk and to capture some behavioral responses and feedback effects. But building models that measure correctly systemic risk and the contribution of individual institutions to it while, at the same time, relating the results to the established regulatory framework has proved more difficult. Looking forward, making macroprudential stress tests more effective would entail using a variety of analytical approaches and scenarios, integrating non-bank financial entities, and exploring the use of agent-based models. As well, macroprudential stress tests should not be used in isolation but be treated as complements to other tools and—crucially—be combined with microprudential perspectives.

Download or read book Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing written by Mr.Daniel C. Hardy and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rules of thumb can be useful in undertaking quick, robust, and readily interpretable bank stress tests. Such rules of thumb are proposed for the behavior of banks’ capital ratios and key drivers thereof—primarily credit losses, income, credit growth, and risk weights—in advanced and emerging economies, under more or less severe stress conditions. The proposed rules imply disproportionate responses to large shocks, and can be used to quantify the cyclical behaviour of capital ratios under various regulatory approaches.

Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.

Download or read book A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks written by Mr.Nassim N. Taleb and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be misleading in the presence of model error and the uncertainty attending parameters and their estimation. The heuristic can be seen as a second order stress test to detect nonlinearities in the tails that can lead to fragility, i.e., provide additional information on the robustness of stress tests. It also shows how the measure can be used to assess the robustness of public debt forecasts, an important issue in many countries. The heuristic measure outlined here can be used in a variety of situations to ascertain an ordinal ranking of fragility to tail risks.

Download or read book The Basel II Risk Parameters written by Bernd Engelmann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-03-31 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The estimation and the validation of the Basel II risk parameters PD (default probability), LGD (loss given fault), and EAD (exposure at default) is an important problem in banking practice. These parameters are used on the one hand as inputs to credit portfolio models and in loan pricing frameworks, on the other to compute regulatory capital according to the new Basel rules. This book covers the state-of-the-art in designing and validating rating systems and default probability estimations. Furthermore, it presents techniques to estimate LGD and EAD and includes a chapter on stress testing of the Basel II risk parameters. The second edition is extended by three chapters explaining how the Basel II risk parameters can be used for building a framework for risk-adjusted pricing and risk management of loans.

Download or read book Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing of the Insurance Sector written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-22 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last decade, stress testing has become a central aspect of the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance work. Recently, more emphasis has also been placed on the role of insurance for financial stability analysis. This paper reviews the current state of system-wide solvency stress tests for insurance based on a comparative review of national practices and the experiences from Fund’s FSAP program with the aim of providing practical guidelines for the coherent and consistent implementation of such exercises. The paper also offers recommendations on improving the current insurance stress testing approaches and presentation of results.

Download or read book Stress Testing and Calibration of Macroprudential Policy Tools written by Lucyna Gornicka and published by . This book was released on 2020-08-14 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a semi-structural model of default risk, which is a function of loan and borrower characteristics, economic conditions, and the regulatory environment. We use this model to simulate bank credit losses for stress-testing purposes and to calibrate borrower-based macroprudential tools. The proposed approach is very flexible and is particularly useful when there is limited history of crisis episodes, when crises bring unanticipated shocks where past tail events offer little guidance and when structural shocks or changes in financial regulations have altered the loan default process. We apply the model to quantify mortgage lending risk in two distinct mortgage markets. For each application, we show a range of modeling adjustments that can be made to capture country-specific institutional features. The model uses bank portfolio data broken down by risk bucket and vintage, which enables us to take explicit account of the loan life cycle and to incorporate the housing and economic cycles. This feature facilitates a timely assessment of banks' loss-absorbing capacity and the buildup of systemic risk conditional on policy. It also enables counterfactual analysis and the evaluation of macroprudential policy interventions.

Download or read book Preparing for the Next Financial Crisis written by Esa Jokivuolle and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years since the subprime financial crisis of 2007–2011, we have learned a number of important lessons about the crisis, and have subsequently applied appropriate legislation, such as increased capital ratios and systematic stress testing, in order to combat it. However, it would be naive to suggest that such measures have put an end to the possibility of future crises. In this book, senior figures in economics, risk Management, and the banking sector use active research and policy debates to offer a wide perspective on what the next financial crisis may look like and what can be done about it from a regulatory point of view. By first exploring issues of macroeconomic policy, and then studying cutting-edge methodologies, challenging important aspects of testing financial practice, this book will be an essential read for all those studying and researching financial crises, financial regulation and macroprudential policy-making.