Download or read book A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy written by Mr.Paolo Mauro and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-09 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We draw on a newly collected historical dataset of fiscal variables for a large panel of countries—to our knowledge, the most comprehensive database currently available—to gauge the degree of fiscal prudence or profligacy for each country over the past several decades. Specifically, our dataset consists of fiscal revenues, primary expenditures, the interest bill (and thus both the primary and the overall fiscal deficit), the government debt, and gross domestic product, for 55 countries for up to two hundred years. For the first time, a large cross country historical data set covers both fiscal stocks and flows. Using Bohn’s (1998) approach and other tests for fiscal sustainability, we document how the degree of prudence or profligacy varies significantly over time within individual countries. We find that such variation is driven in part by unexpected changes in potential economic growth and sovereign borrowing costs.

Download or read book Finance Development June 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-30 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights that one of the most dramatic developments in the 20th century was the entry of women into economic and political spheres previously occupied almost exclusively by men. Although women are making progress in eliminating gender disparities, they still lag men in the workplace and in the halls of government. These gaps are found throughout the world, but are particularly pronounced in developing economies. So far, the greatest success has been in reducing education and health disparities and the least in increasing women’s economic and political influence.

Download or read book How Much is A Lot Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments written by Mr.Julio Escolano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-09-25 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sizeable fiscal consolidation required to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratios in several countries in the aftermath of the global crisis raises a crucial question on its feasibility. To answer this question, we rely on historical evidence from a sample of 91 adjustment episodes of countries during 1945–2012 that needed and wanted to adjust in order to stabilize debt to GDP. We find that, in at least half the cases, countries improved their cyclically adjusted primary balances by close to 5 percent of GDP. We also observe that, while countries typically make substantial efforts to stabilize debt, once this objective is achieved, they tend to ease their primary balances and do not necessarily get back to their initial lower debt-to-GDP ratio. We find that consolidations tended to be larger when the initial deficit was high and adjustment efforts were sustained over time. Fiscal adjustments also tended to be larger when accompanied by an easing of monetary conditions and, to a lesser extent, by an improvement in credit conditions.

Download or read book A Guide to Sovereign Debt Data written by S. M. Ali Abbas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-13 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last decade or so has seen a mushrooming of new sovereign debt databases covering long time spans for several countries. This represents an important breakthrough for economists who have long sought to, but been unable to tackle, first-order questions such as why countries have differential debt tolerance, and how debt levels affect the scope for countercyclical policy in recessions and financial crises. This paper backdrops these recent data efforts, identifying both the key innovations, as well as caveats that users should be aware of. A Directory of existing publicly-available sovereign debt databases, featuring compilations by institutions and individual researchers, is also included.

Download or read book Taxing the Rich written by Kenneth Scheve and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-07 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A groundbreaking history of why governments do—and don't—tax the rich In today's social climate of acknowledged and growing inequality, why are there not greater efforts to tax the rich? In this wide-ranging and provocative book, Kenneth Scheve and David Stasavage ask when and why countries tax their wealthiest citizens—and their answers may surprise you. Taxing the Rich draws on unparalleled evidence from twenty countries over the last two centuries to provide the broadest and most in-depth history of progressive taxation available. Scheve and Stasavage explore the intellectual and political debates surrounding the taxation of the wealthy while also providing the most detailed examination to date of when taxes have been levied against the rich and when they haven't. Fairness in debates about taxing the rich has depended on different views of what it means to treat people as equals and whether taxing the rich advances or undermines this norm. Scheve and Stasavage argue that governments don't tax the rich just because inequality is high or rising—they do it when people believe that such taxes compensate for the state unfairly privileging the wealthy. Progressive taxation saw its heyday in the twentieth century, when compensatory arguments for taxing the rich focused on unequal sacrifice in mass warfare. Today, as technology gives rise to wars of more limited mobilization, such arguments are no longer persuasive. Taxing the Rich shows how the future of tax reform will depend on whether political and economic conditions allow for new compensatory arguments to be made.

Download or read book Predicting Fiscal Crises A Machine Learning Approach written by Klaus-Peter Hellwig and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-27 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random forest, gradient boosted trees) deliver significant improvements in accuracy. Performance of machine learning techniques improves further, particularly for developing countries, when I expand the set of potential predictors and make use of algorithmic selection techniques instead of relying on a small set of variables deemed important by the literature. There is considerable agreement across learning algorithms in the set of selected predictors: Results confirm the importance of external sector stock and flow variables found in the literature but also point to demographics and the quality of governance as important predictors of fiscal crises. Fiscal variables appear to have less predictive value, and public debt matters only to the extent that it is owed to external creditors.

Download or read book Fiscal Monitor April 2014 written by Ms.Martine Guerguil and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-09 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal risks are abating somewhat but remain elevated. In advanced economies, recent policy moves have broadly stabilized public debt ratios, but medium-term prospects are still uncertain, and debt remains at historic highs. Fiscal vulnerabilities are rising in both emerging market economies and low-income countries, although in most cases from relatively moderate levels. Across country groups, fiscal policy should aim at rebuilding policy space while supporting the recovery and long-term growth prospects.

Download or read book Global Debt Database Methodology and Sources written by Samba Mbaye and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-14 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor, which pioneered the expansion of private debt series to a global sample. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, it takes a fundamentally new approach to compiling historical data. Where most debt datasets either provide long series with a narrow and changing definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample, setting a higher data quality standard.

Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by S. Ali Abbas and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-21 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.

Download or read book Fiscal Monitor April 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-15 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal risks remain significant in both advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Fiscal policy continues to play an essential role in building confidence and, where appropriate, sustaining aggregate demand. According to this issue of the Fiscal Monitor, strengthening fiscal frameworks—particularly to manage public finance risks and ensure debt sustainability—must be part of the fiscal policy response. Countries should seize the moment created by lower oil prices to start the process of energy taxation and energy subsidy reform. Finally, fiscal policy can contribute substantially to macroeconomic stability, through the workings of automatic stabilizers. By doing so, fiscal policy can also unlock significant growth dividends.

Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability written by Barry W. Poulson and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-01-04 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic, they are confronted with an even more challenging debt crisis. Xavier Debrun argues in the foreword that in deciding where we go from here that there is no longer a consensus regarding the optimum design and enforcement of fiscal rules. Rather we must address a series of questions and challenges to the conventional wisdom. This book provides an opportunity for scholars to explore these questions from an international perspective, with reference to European countries, and emerging nations as well as the United States.

Download or read book Economic Policy Theory and Practice written by Agnes Benassy-Quere and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-11-07 with total page 800 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Policy provides a unique combination of facts-based analysis, state-of-the art economic theory, and insights from first-hand policy experience at the national and international levels to shed light on current domestic and international policy challenges. It is ideally suited for students, practitioners, and scholars seeking understanding both of the pragmatic constraints of real-world policy making and the analytical tools that enhance inquiry and inform debates. The authors draw on their experiences as academics and as policy makers in European and international institutions to offer a deep dive into the rationale, design, and implementation of economic policy across a range of policy domains: fiscal policy, monetary policy, international finance, financial stability, taxes, long-term growth and inequality. Highlighting the ways experience, theories, and institutions interact, each chapter starts with historical examples of dilemmas and shows how theoretical approaches can help policy makers understand what is at stake and identify solutions. The authors highlight the differences between the positive approach to economic policy (how do policies impact the economy), the normative approach (what should be policymakers' objectives and against which criteria should their action be judged), and the political-economy constraints (what are the limits and obstacles to public intervention). They rely on the most recent academic research, providing technical boxes while explaining the mechanisms in plain English in the text, with appropriate illustrations. This new edition is informed by such important recent developments as the Great Recession, the strains on the European Union and the Euro, the challenges of public and private debt, the successes and setbacks to emerging markets, changes to labor markets along with the increased attention to inequality, the debates on secular stagnation and its implications for conventional and unconventional monetary policy, the re-regulation of the financial sector, the debt overhang in both the public and the private sector.

Download or read book Rethinking Fiscal Policy after the Crisis written by Ľudovít Ódor and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-18 with total page 615 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the often overlooked future of fiscal policy in light of what we have learned from the financial crisis. This book is for academics and graduate students studying the debate on fiscal policy, as well as practitioners working on day-to-day policy issues.

Download or read book Second Generation Fiscal Rules written by Luc Eyraud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog

Download or read book Fiscal Politics written by Vitor Gaspar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-04-07 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part 2 (6 chapters) outlines how institutions and fiscal rules can offer solutions; and part 3 (4 chapters) discusses how multilevel governance frameworks can help.

Download or read book Debt and Entanglements Between the Wars written by Mr.Thomas J Sargent and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-08 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: World War I created a set of forces that affected the political arrangements and economies of all the countries involved. This period in global economic history between World War I and II offers rich material for studying international monetary and sovereign debt policies. Debt and Entanglements between the Wars focuses on the experiences of the United States, United Kingdom, four countries in the British Commonwealth (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Newfoundland), France, Italy, Germany, and Japan, offering unique insights into how political and economic interests influenced alliances, defaults, and the unwinding of debts. The narratives presented show how the absence of effective international collaboration and resolution mechanisms inflicted damage on the global economy, with disastrous consequences.

Download or read book Analyzing and Managing Fiscal Risks Best Practices written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive analysis and management of fiscal risks can help ensure sound fiscal public finances and macroeconomic stability. This has been underscored by the global financial crisis and the more recent collapse in commodity prices, which starkly illustrate the vulnerability of public finances to risk. Indeed, over the past quarter century, governments experienced on average an adverse fiscal shock of 6 percent of GDP once every 12 years, with some of the largest stemming from financial crises. Countries need a more complete understanding of these potential threats to their fiscal position. Existing fiscal risk disclosure and analysis practices tend to be incomplete, fragmented, and qualitative in nature. A more comprehensive and integrated assessment of the potential shocks to government finances, in the form of a fiscal stress test, can help policymakers simulate the effects of shocks to their central forecasts and their implications for government solvency, liquidity, and financing needs. Comprehensive, reliable, and timely fiscal data covering all public entities, stocks, and flows are a necessary foundation for such analysis. Countries should also enhance their capacity to mitigate and manage fiscal risks. Fiscal risk management practices are often blunt, ad hoc, and too focused on imposing limits on the creation of exposures. Countries need to expand their toolkits for fiscal risk management and adopt the use of instruments to transfer, share, or provision for risks. In doing so, countries need to weigh the possible benefits from reducing their exposure to shocks against the financial and other costs of the policies that may be needed. Finally, countries should make greater use of probabilistic forecasting methods when setting long-run objectives and medium-term targets for fiscal policy. The paper illustrates how simple probabilistic tools can be used to map the uncertainty around medium-term trajectories for public debt. In combination with fiscal stress tests, these tools can provide valuable information regarding the probabilities that a country will stay within the debt ceilings embedded in their fiscal rules. The Fund is playing an important role in supporting improvements in fiscal risk analysis and management among its members. This includes technical assistance in constructing public sector balance sheets; developing institutions and capacity to identify specific fiscal risks and to quantify their potential impact; undertaking fiscal stress tests; and integrating risks into the design of medium-term fiscal targets.