Download or read book World Shocks and Commodity Price Fluctuations Evidence from Resource rich Economies written by Filippo Arigoni and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We identify world shocks driving up real commodity prices in a Bayesian dynamic factor model setting using a minimum set of sign restrictions omplemented with constrained short-run responses.

Download or read book Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low Income Countries written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

Download or read book Commodity Markets written by John Baffes and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2022-12-07 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity markets are integral to the global economy. Understanding what drives developments of these markets is critical to the design of policy frameworks that facilitate the economic objectives of sustainable growth, inflation stability, poverty reduction, food security, and the mitigation of climate change. This study is the first comprehensive analysis examining market and policy developments for all commodity groups, including energy, metals, and agriculture, over the past century. It finds that, while the quantity of commodities consumed has risen enormously, driven by population and income growth, the relative importance of commodities has shifted over time, as technological innovation created new uses for some materials and facilitated substitution among commodities. The study also shows that commodity markets are heterogeneous in terms of their drivers, price behavior, and macroeconomic impact on emerging markets and developing economies, and that the relationship between economic growth and commodity demand varies widely across countries, depending on their stage of economic development. Policy frameworks that enable countercyclical macroeconomic responses have become increasingly common—and beneficial. Other policy tools have had mixed outcomes. Discussions about commodity-exporting emerging markets are often based on ideas without empirical or analytical support. This book is a great contribution to improve our understanding of those economies, based on rigorous research. It provides robust empirical evidence including a long-term perspective on commodity prices. It also contains very thoughtful policy analysis, with implications for resilience, macroeconomic policies, and development strategies. It will be a key reference for scholars as well as policy makers. José De Gregorio Dean of the School of Economics and Business Universidad de Chile Former Minister of Economy, Mining and Energy and Former Governor of the Central Bank of Chile A sound understanding of commodity markets is more essential than ever in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy commodities. This volume offers an excellent, comprehensive, and very timely analysis of the wide range of factors that affect commodity markets. It carefully surveys historical and future trends in commodity supply, demand, and prices, and offers detailed policy proposals to avoid the havoc that turbulent commodity markets can cause on the economies of commodity exporters and importers. Rick Van der Ploeg Research Director of Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource-Rich Economies University of Oxford

Download or read book Macroeconomic Stability in Resource Rich Countries written by Ms.Elva Bova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-02-23 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Resource-rich countries face large and persistent shocks, especially coming from volatile commodity prices. Given the severity of the shocks, it would be expected that these countries adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to help shield the domestic economy. Taking advantage of a new dataset covering 48 non-renewable commodity exporters for the period 1970-2014, we investigate whether fiscal policy does indeed play a stabilizing role. Our analysis shows that fiscal policy tends to have a procyclical bias (mainly via expenditures) and, contrary to others, we do not find evidence that this bias has declined in recent years. Adoption of fiscal rules does not seem to reduce procyclicality in a significant way, but the quality of political institutions does matter. Finally, non-commodity revenues tend to respond only to persistent changes in commodity prices.

Download or read book The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks written by Mikidadu Mohammed and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-11-25 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.

Download or read book Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.

Download or read book Commodity Price Cycles written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity-exporting countries have significantly benefited from the commodity price boom of recent years. At the current juncture, however, uncertain global economic prospects have raised questions about their vulnerability to a sharp fall in commodity prices and the policies that can shield it from such a shock. To address these questions, this paper takes a long term (4 decade) view at emerging markets' commodity dependence, the history of commodity price busts and the role of policies in mitigating or amplifying their economic impact. The paper highlights the stark difference in trends between Latin America - one of the most vulnerable regions given its high, and rising, commodity dependence - and emerging Asia - which has evolved from being a net exporter to a net importer of commodities in the last 40 years. We find evidence, however, that while commodity dependence is an important ingredient, a country's ultimate degree of vulnerability to commodity price shocks is to a great extent determined by the flexibility and quality of its policy framework. Policies in the run-up of sharp terms-of-trade drops - especially when those are preceded by booms - play a particularly important role. Limited exchange rate flexibility, a weak external position, and loose fiscal policy tend to amplify the negative effects of these shocks on domestic output. Financial dollarization also appears to act as a shock "amplifier."

Download or read book The World Bank Research Observer written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Jiachuan Tian and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The variation of energy prices has been a traditional source of shocks to the real economy. In many cases, this variation has manifested in jumps in energy prices that were characterized by some persistence. From another perspective, energy price volatility has historically been noted and its effects on real economy debated. Historically, the importance of the shocks to the real economy has led them to be labeled as energy crises, as they were argued to have resulted in substantial changes in real prices that induced changes in behavior on the demand and supply sides of the many markets. The first chapter re-examines evidence of such a linkage by considering the transmission of energy prices into soft commodity prices. This nexus lies within the core of any real effects as softs include food-related commodities. The paper contributes to the literature by re-examining this linkage with a close eye on the role played by structural breaks within a time series and by considering the question of causality within a nonlinear framework. We find that functional form is a critical specification that conditions inference. Using linear forms, we find no cointegration between energy and food in the full sample under the maintained hypothesis that there are no structural breaks. Using linear nonparametric methods, we examine the series for structural breaks and find evidence of their importance. Based on subdivisions of the sample period as suggested by the structural break examination, within the structural break intervals identified we find evidence of cointegration. We next reconsider the issue within the context of nonlinear functional forms posing the question of whether evidence of structural breaks based on linear methods follow from underlying nonlinearity. Our results confirm the importance of functional form specification and we find evidence of nonlinear causality between energy and soft commodity prices. Empirical studies of transmission of energy prices into the real economy have been challenged by a number of significant specification issues that have resulted in substantial variation in inference drawn from results. Among these issues is the question of completeness of model specification. Chapter 2 examines the question of whether such models need to incorporate macroeconomic indicators. Clearly, macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and exchange rates play a role in the determination of energy and commodity prices, however, considerable specification uncertainty characterizes the question of which macro metrics to incorporate. We examine this issue from the perspective of weak exogeneity and find evidence that the parameter estimates associated with time series models that exclude consideration of macro indicators are not compromised by their exclusion. We examine this issue using Italian, U.S. grain, and Brent crude oil prices. While structural break, threshold and asymmetric cointegration models can allow us to characterize the linear and nonlinear dynamics in price transmission in level,it is of equal interest to differentiate across the type of price change to consider what might be thought of as typical price changes versus extreme price changes associated with either temporary structural change or mean reverting change as in what we call price jumps. In particular, while a structural break is a permanent and long-run structural shift in DGM, a jump in a series represents a sudden temporary change in the pattern of the observations generated. Such change is temporary in a sense that its effect usually diminishes rather quickly (usually in relatively few periods). That means, intuitively, in relatively short time span after a jump, the price series will revert to its mean or its long-run smooth pattern which we call the trend of the series. In Chapter 3, we present a detailed discussion of the proper representation of such price jumps and show that there are price jumps in the real-world economic price series. The last chapter is concerned with the micro-structure specification to identify origins of price jumps that can not be generally characterized by the competitive market models. In particular we propose a rather general model of procurement process where imperfectly informed buyers search for and place bids to suppliers to fulfill procurement demand. We show that in this process, search cost, market structure and market condition are crucial factors in generating price jumps. Later in the simulation part we show that the model proposed in this paper can generate jumps that resemble those in the observed economic price series. We also integrate buyers risk aversion in market conditions (though they are risk neutral in payoffs) through their personal belief and search costs. We show that buyers risk aversion increases their sensitivity to market conditions,which exaggerates price movements with presence of supply shocks.

Download or read book Financial Resource Curse in Resource Rich Countries written by Mr.Montfort Mlachila and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-21 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do commodity-dependent developing countries have typically lower levels of financial development than their peers? The literature has proposed many possible explanations, but it typically does not dwell on the deep mechanisms that drive such an outcome. In this paper, we argue that the main cause is the shocks in commodity prices. We test the hypothesis on 68 commodity-rich developing countries between 1980 and 2014, and we find strong evidence of the financial development resource curse through the channel of commodity price shocks, after controlling for other explanations found in the literature. The findings are robust to the different types of commodities, the nature of the shocks, and various indicators of financial development. We also show how the impact of these shocks can be mitigated through good quality of governance.

Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity Exporting Small Open Economies written by Juan Pablo Medina Guzman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-13 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model for a commodity-exporting economy where macro policies are conducted through rules. We show that the responses of output, aggregate demand, and inflation to an increase in commodity price are magnified when these rules are imperfectly credible and lack transparency. If policies are imperfectly credible, then transparency helps private agents to learn the systematic behavior of the autorities, reducing the effects of commodity prices shocks. Coherent with the model, we show cross-country evidence that monetary policy transparency and fiscal credibility reduce the incidence of export price volatility on output volatility. Also, our results indicate that having an explicit fiscal rule and an inflation targeting regime contribute to isolate the economy from terms of trade fluctuations.

Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks Growth and Structural Transformation in Low income Countries written by Thomas McGregor and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Resource Blessing Revenue Curse Domestic Revenue Effort in Resource Rich Countries written by Ernesto Crivelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-14 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a newly constructed revenue dataset of 35 resource-rich countries for the period 1992-2009 to analyze the impact of expanding resource revenues on different types of domestic (non resource) tax revenues. Overall, we find a statistically significant negative relationship between resource revenues and total domestic (non resource) revenues, including for the major tax components. For each additional percentage point of GDP in resource revenues, there is a reduction in domestic (non resource) revenues of about 0.3 percentage points of GDP. We find this primarily occurs through reduced effort on taxes on goods and services—in particular, the VAT— followed by a smaller negative impact on corporate income and trade taxes.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-17 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.

Download or read book Commodity Prices and the New Inflation written by Barry Bosworth and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 1982 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The role of primary commodities in industries economies; The contribution of primary commodity price increases to inflation; Sources of commodity price fluctuations; Grain and petroleum: the role of institutional changes; The policy choices: some general considerations; Commodity stabilization policies: some specific proposals.

Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.

Download or read book The Volatility Curse written by Daniela Campello and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-11-05 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Volatility Curse examines the conditions under which economic voting can (and cannot) function as a mechanism of democratic accountability, challenging existing theories that are largely based on experiences in developed democracies. Drawing on cross-national data from around the world and micro-level evidence from Latin America, Daniela Campello and Cesar Zucco make two broad, related arguments. First, they show that economic voting is pervasive around the world, but in economically volatile developing democracies that are dependent on commodity exports and inflows of foreign capital, economic outcomes are highly contingent on conditions beyond government control, which nonetheless determine relevant political outcomes like elections, popular support, and government transitions. Second, politicians are aware of these misattribution patterns and are often able to anticipate their electoral prospects well before elections. This reduces incumbents' incentives to maximize voter welfare, as anticipated by economic voting theories, and increases the likelihood of shirking, waste, and corruption.