Download or read book When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.

Download or read book When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth written by Nicolás E. Magud and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.

Download or read book When and why Worry about Real Exchange Rate Application written by Nicolás Magud and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-06 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.

Download or read book Diagnosing Dutch Disease written by Nienke Oomes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-04 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we assess whether recent economic developments in Russia are symptomatic of Dutch Disease. We first provide a brief review of the literature on Dutch Disease and the natural resource curse. We then discuss the symptoms of Dutch Disease, which include (1) real exchange rate appreciation; (2) slower manufacturing growth; (3) faster service sector growth; and (4) higher overall wages. We test these predictions for Russia while carefully controlling for other factors that could have led to similar symptoms. We conclude that, while Russia has all of the symptoms, the diagnosis of Dutch Disease remains to be confirmed.

Download or read book Unintended Consequences of U S Monetary Policy Shocks Dutch Disease and Capital Flow Measures in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies written by Juan Yepez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-06 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dutch disease is often referred as a situation in which large and sustained foreign currency inflows lead to a contraction of the tradable sector by giving rise to a real appreciation of the home currency. This paper documents that this syndrome has been witnessed by many emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) as a result of surges in capital inflows driven by accommodative U. S. monetary policy. In a sample of 25 EMDEs from 2000-17, U. S. monetary policy shocks coincided with episodes of currency appreciation and a contraction in tradable output in these economies. The paper also shows empirically that the use of capital flow measures (CFMs) has been a common policy response in several EMDEs to U.S. monetary policy shocks. Against this background, the paper presents a two sector small open economy augmented with a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism in the tradable sector to rationalize these empirical findings. A welfare analysis provides a rationale for the use of CFMs as a second-best policy when agents do not internalize the LBD externality of costly resource misallocation as a result of greater capital inflows. However, the adequate calibration of CFMs and the quantification of the LBD externality represent important implementation challenges.

Download or read book LAC Poverty and Labor Brief June 2015 written by Weltbank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While LAC continues its progress towards becoming a middle-class region, in 2013 poverty reduction was slower than in previous years. The bottom 40 percent of the population has also seen decelerating income growth since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Driving the lower gains in shared prosperity and poverty reduction is the region's slowing economic growth. Similarly, after more than a decade of steady decline, inequality has been stagnant since 2010 and remains high. Given the crucial role of labor earnings in poverty and inequality reduction, this report analyzes more deeply LAC's labor markets and its implications for the region's social gains going forward. It shows that the region's push to increase its human capital has yielded dividends; increases in the educational attainment of the labor force are evident across the region. Nonetheless, the substantial growth in wages observed during the last decade was not accompanied by significant changes in the labor market: agriculture and low-productivity, informal service employment continued to be key sources of income for the poor in LAC. Instead, most of the gains were seen in countries that benefitted from the commodity boom of the last decade. As the commodity boom fades and growth wanes, there is a risk that the social gains achieved in the century's first decade will erode.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-04 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.

Download or read book The Future of Petroleum in Lebanon written by Sami Atallah and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2019-09-19 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the future of the oil and gas sector in Lebanon? Following the recent discovery of these valuable resources in the southern Mediterranean, including in the Cypriot and Israeli offshore reserves, the possibility of Lebanon also becoming a petroleum-producing country has been raised. This collection of essays addresses the major challenges and opportunities that accompany the country's hope to join the petroleum club. Covering the key policy issues - from Lebanon's susceptibility to the oil curse, to the environmental risks of production - this book brings together expert analysis to offer answers at the institutional level. Of central importance, the contributors argue, is that for Lebanon to benefit from the discovery of petroleum, it must first reform its institutions with the full support of the voting public and civil society. Combining rigorous quantitative and qualitative research, the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies has produced here an essential book that puts petroleum in Lebanon, and the important questions that come with it, within a global perspective.

Download or read book Oil Price Boom and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation written by Mr.Juan P. Trevino and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-11-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper employs a heuristic comparative approach suggested by Ismail (2009) to search for evidence of Dutch disease in oil-rich countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). While these countries have benefitted from high international oil prices in recent years, they have also experienced relatively large real exchange rate appreciations, raising concerns regarding the presence of Dutch disease and casting doubts on their ability to achieve high growth and employment in the long run. To isolate from any dynamics related to the exchange rate regime, we focus on the 14 member countries that constitute the CFA franc zone. We separate them into net oil importers and net oil exporters and look at economic growth, the real exchange rate, and the agricultural and external sectors. Based on traditional models, our findings are broadly consistent with the presence of Dutch disease in the second group during the oil-price boom. Departing from these models yields mixed results, suggesting the need to employ a case-by-case approach.

Download or read book Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks written by Eliphas Ndou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-08 with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the macroeconomic and regulatory impact of domestic and international shocks on the South African economy resulting from the 2009 financial crisis. It also assesses the impact of the US economy’s eventual recovery from the crisis and the prospect of higher US interest rates in future. Told in three parts, the book explores associations between economic growth, policy uncertainty and the key domestic and international transmission channels, and transmission effects, of global financial regulatory and domestic macro-economic uncertainties on subdued and volatile economic recovery, financial channels, lending rate margins, and credit growth. The book concludes by extending its focus to the role of US monetary policy, capital flows and rand/US dollar volatility on the South African economy.

Download or read book Sudden Influxes of Resource Wealth to the Economy written by Fabian Mendez Ramos and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dutch Disease is a condition in which a sudden increase of resource wealth from an extractive sector (such as oil, gas, coal, or mining) undermines other areas of the economy (such as agriculture, manufacturing, or tradeable services), shrinking them while spurring an appreciation in the real exchange rate. Although this may have some positive effects in the short run, Dutch Disease episodes can potentially lead to sectoral concentration and lower economic growth in the long run. This policy brief takes a systematic look at this macroeconomic phenomenon, collects evidence for 83 countries from 1998 to 2017, and summarizes policies that aim to prevent or mitigate Dutch Disease and some of its effects. A long-term perspective to prevent excessive dependence on natural resources and promote broad-based growth should include improvements in institutional governance of natural resource wealth, development of the financial sector to provide risk management products, and diversification of the economy through selective taxes and provision of public goods.

Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin June 2011 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-06-07 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: June 2011: The Q&A in this issue features seven questions on the global trade collapse of 2008-09 (by Rudolfs Bems); the research summaries are "The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets" (by Ricardo Llaudes, Ferhan Salman, and Mali Chivakul) and "The Missing Link between Dutch Disease, Appreciation, and Growth (by Nicolás E. Magud and Sebastián Sosa). The issue also lists the contents of the June 2011 issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 59 Number 2; visiting scholars at the IMF during April-June 2011; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes.

Download or read book Political Economy Of The Brics Countries The In 3 Volumes written by and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-03-03 with total page 986 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past 20 years, social scientists, government officials, and investors have expressed mounting interest in the BRICS countries, which include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. These countries are widely viewed as both key actors in the global economy and important regional powers. The Political Economy of the BRICS Countries is a three-volume set that aims to address various crucial issues regarding these countries.Volume 1 analyzes whether economic growth in the BRICS countries has been broad-based and promoted equitable economic and social outcomes. The authors examine specific dimensions of growth in these five economies that constrain their ability to act effectively and cohesively in international affairs.Volume 2 considers how the BRICS have affected global economic governance and the international political economy.Volume 3 provides various approaches to economic informality in the BRICS. Moreover, the chapters deal with several connections between informality and important political, economic, and institutional phenomena such as economic globalization and international aid, economic development, political regimes, social capital, political networks and political participation, labor market rules, and social policy preferences.The BRICS countries have attracted rising attention over the past two decades. The volumes provide an in-depth analysis of various key issues regarding these countries and chart a course for future research.

Download or read book Dissecting Economic Growth in Uruguay written by Ms.Natasha X Che and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-01-08 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uruguay experienced one of its biggest economic booms in history during 2004-2014. Since then, growth has come down significantly. The paper investigates the various causes of the boom and discusses the sustainability of these causes. It then compares Uruguay against high-growth countries that were once at a similar income level, across a broad set of structural indicators, to identify priority reform areas that could improve long-term growth prospect.

Download or read book OECD Development Pathways Multi dimensional Review of Kazakhstan Volume 1 Initial Assessment written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-20 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kazakhstan’s economy and society have undergone deep transformations since the country declared independence in 1991. Kazakhstan’s growth performance since 2000 has been impressive, averaging almost 8% per annum in real terms and leading to job creation and progress in the well-being of its citizens

Download or read book Myanmar s Foreign Exchange Market written by Koji Kubo and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book dedicated to the scrutinization of Myanmar's unofficial foreign exchange market, its roots in restrictive administrative controls on foreign exchange and international trade, and its effects on the country’s economic performance. This book integrates vast pieces of records and data with first-hand information from extensive fieldwork to create an overall picture of the chaotic but seemingly efficient foreign exchange market in Myanmar, a transitional economy in Southeast Asia whose economic systems had been less known due to its isolation until recently. This book illustrates how the unofficial foreign exchange market emerged during the country’s transition to a market-based economy, how informal currency deals proliferated under restrictive controls, and why they persist despite the significant economic reforms since 2011. Refuting the conventional wisdom of foreign exchange policy reforms, this research clarifies path-dependent features of foreign exchange market systems, and it discusses possible solutions for modernizing economic systems. This book is highly recommended to readers who seek an in-depth analytical narrative about informal economic activities and foreign exchange policy reforms in a fragile state.