Download or read book Utilizing System Dynamics Modeling for the Analysis of a Midwest Regional Carbon Cap and Trade Program written by Dane McFarlene and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Does uncertainty matter a stochastic dynamic analysis of bankable emission permit trading for global climate change policy written by Fan Zhang and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Emission permit trading is a centerpiece of the Kyoto Protocol which allows participating nations to trade and bank greenhouse gas permits under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. When market conditions evolve stochastically, emission trading produces a dynamic problem, in which anticipation about the future economic environment affects current banking decisions. In this paper, the author explores the effect of increased uncertainty over future output prices and input costs on the temporal distribution of emissions. In a dynamic programming setting, a permit price is a convex function of stochastic prices of electricity and fuel. Increased uncertainty about future market conditions increases the expected permit price and causes a risk-neutral firm to reduce ex ante emissions so as to smooth out marginal abatement costs over time. The convexity results from the asymmetric impact of changes in counterfactual emissions on the change of marginal abatement costs. Empirical analysis corroborates the theoretical prediction. The author finds that a 1 percent increase in electricity price volatility measured by the annualized standard deviation of percentage price change is associated with an average decrease in the annual emission rate by 0.88 percent. Numerical simulation suggests that high uncertainty could induce substantially early abatements, as well as large compliance costs, therefore imposing a tradeoff between environmental benefits and economic efficiency. The author discusses policy implications for designing an effective and efficient global carbon market.
Download or read book The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics written by Alain Haurie and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-07-05 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews the different approaches used to model the dynamic interactions between climate and economies, and proposes new avenues of research. Its fourteen chapters deal with various aspects of the building of integrated assessment models, either by coupling economic growth and climate change modules, or using mathematical models of viability or dynamic game theory to represent the interactions between the world regions concerned.
Download or read book Land Carbon Cycle Modeling written by Yiqi Luo and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-08-18 with total page 602 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Carbon moves through the atmosphere, through the oceans, onto land, and into ecosystems. This cycling has a large effect on climate – changing geographic patterns of rainfall and the frequency of extreme weather – and is altered as the use of fossil fuels adds carbon to the cycle. The dynamics of this global carbon cycling are largely predicted over broad spatial scales and long periods of time by Earth system models. This book addresses the crucial question of how to assess, evaluate, and estimate the potential impact of the additional carbon to the land carbon cycle. The contributors describe a set of new approaches to land carbon cycle modeling for better exploring ecological questions regarding changes in carbon cycling; employing data assimilation techniques for model improvement; and doing real- or near-time ecological forecasting for decision support. This book strives to balance theoretical considerations, technical details, and applications of ecosystem modeling for research, assessment, and crucial decision making. Key Features Helps readers understand, implement, and criticize land carbon cycle models Offers a new theoretical framework to understand transient dynamics of land carbon cycle Describes a suite of modeling skills – matrix approach to represent land carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles; data assimilation and machine learning to improve parameterization; and workflow systems to facilitate ecological forecasting Introduces a new set of techniques, such as semi-analytic spin-up (SASU), unified diagnostic system with a 1-3-5 scheme, traceability analysis, and benchmark analysis, for model evaluation and improvement Related Titles Isabel Ferrera, ed. Climate Change and the Oceanic Carbon Cycle: Variables and Consequences (ISBN 978-1-774-63669-5) Lal, R. et al., eds. Soil Processes and the Carbon Cycle (ISBN 978-0-8493-7441-8) Windham-Myers, L., et al., eds. A Blue Carbon Primer: The State of Coastal Wetland Carbon Science, Practice and Policy (ISBN 978-0-367-89352-1)
Download or read book Designing a Cap and trade Program for the Midwest written by Kathryn Zyla and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling Environment Improving Technological Innovations under Uncertainty written by Alexander Golub and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2008-12-08 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The issues of technology and uncertainty are very much at the heart of the policy debate of how much to control greenhouse gas emissions. The costs of doing so are present and high while the benefits are very much in the future and, most importantly, they are highly uncertain. Whilst there is broad consensus on the key elements of climate change science and agreement that near-term actions are needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, there is little agreement on the costs and benefits of climate policy. The book looks at different ways of reconciling the needs for sustainability and equity with the costs of action now. Presenting a compendium of methodologies for evaluating the economic impact of technological innovation upon climate-change policy, this book describes mathematical models and their predictions. The goal is to provide a practitioner’s guide for doing the science of economics and climate change. Because the assumptions motivating different problems in the economics of climate change have different complexities, a number of models are presented with varying levels of difficulty: reduced-form and structural, partial- and general-equilibrium, closed-form and computational. A unifying theme of these models is the incorporation of a number of price and quantity instruments and an analysis of their respective efficacies. This book presents models that contain structural uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty that economic agents respond to via their risk attitudes. The novelty of this book is to relate the effects of risk and risk attitudes to environment-improving technological innovation.
Download or read book Modeling Dynamic Climate Systems written by Walter A. Robinson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the process of building and using models to comprehend the dynamics of the atmosphere, ocean and climate, the reader will learn how the different components of climate systems function, interact with each other, and vary over time. Topics include the stability of climate, Earths energy balance, parcel dynamics in the atmosphere, the mechanisms of heat transport in the climate system, and mechanisms of climate variability. Special attention is given to the effects of climate change.
Download or read book Does Uncertainty Matter A Stochastic Dynamic Analysis of Bankable Emission Permit Trading for Global Climate Change Policy written by Fan Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emission permit trading is a centerpiece of the Kyoto Protocol which allows participating nations to trade and bank greenhouse gas permits under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. When market conditions evolve stochastically, emission trading produces a dynamic problem, in which anticipation about the future economic environment affects current banking decisions. In this paper, the author explores the effect of increased uncertainty over future output prices and input costs on the temporal distribution of emissions. In a dynamic programming setting, a permit price is a convex function of stochastic prices of electricity and fuel. Increased uncertainty about future market conditions increases the expected permit price and causes a risk-neutral firm to reduce ex ante emissions so as to smooth out marginal abatement costs over time. The convexity results from the asymmetric impact of changes in counterfactual emissions on the change of marginal abatement costs. Empirical analysis corroborates the theoretical prediction. The author finds that a 1 percent increase in electricity price volatility measured by the annualized standard deviation of percentage price change is associated with an average decrease in the annual emission rate by 0.88 percent. Numerical simulation suggests that high uncertainty could induce substantially early abatements, as well as large compliance costs, therefore imposing a tradeoff between environmental benefits and economic efficiency. The author discusses policy implications for designing an effective and efficient global carbon market.
Download or read book Analysis of United States Greenhouse Gas Cap and trade Proposals Using a Forward looking Economic Model written by Angelo Gurgel and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.
Download or read book Land Carbon Cycle Modeling written by Yiqi Luo and published by . This book was released on 2024 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Carbon moves through the atmosphere, through the oceans, onto land, and into ecosystems. This cycling has a large effect on climate - changing geographic patterns of rainfall and the frequency of extreme weather - and is altered as the use of fossil fuels adds carbon to the cycle. The dynamics of this global carbon cycling are largely predicted over broad spatial scales and long periods of time by Earth system models. This book addresses the crucial question of how to assess, evaluate, and estimate the potential impact of the additional carbon to the land carbon cycle. The contributors describe a set of new approaches to land carbon cycle modeling for better exploring ecological questions regarding changes in carbon cycling; employing data assimilation techniques for model improvement; doing real- or near-time ecological forecasting for decision support; and combining newly available machine learning techniques with process-based models to improve prediction of the land carbon cycle under climate change. This new edition includes seven new chapters: machine learning and its applications to carbon cycle research (five chapters); principles underlying carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere, contemporary active research and management issues (one chapter); and community infrastructure for ecological forecasting (one chapter). Key Features Helps readers understand, implement, and criticize land carbon cycle models Offers a new theoretical framework to understand transient dynamics of the land carbon cycle Describes a suite of modeling skills - matrix approach to represent land carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles; data assimilation and machine learning to improve parameterization; and workflow systems to facilitate ecological forecasting Introduces a new set of techniques, such as semi-analytic spin-up (SASU), unified diagnostic system with a 1-3-5 scheme, traceability analysis, and benchmark analysis, and PROcess-guided machine learning and DAta-driven modeling (PRODA) for model evaluation and improvement Reorganized from the first edition with seven new chapters added Strives to balance theoretical considerations, technical details, and applications of ecosystem modeling for research, assessment, and crucial decision-making
Download or read book The Economic Analysis of the Western Climate Initiative s Regional Cap and trade Program written by David G. Tuerck and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A System Dynamics Based Integrated Assessment Modelling of Global regional Climate Change written by Mohammad Khaled Akhtar and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI (version 2) represents the societybiosphere- climate-economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The development of the ANEMI model version 2 is based on the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows for the understanding and modelling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adapting to changing global conditions within an integrated assessment modelling framework. This thesis presents the ANEMI model version 2 and its nine individual sectors: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energyeconomy. Two levels of the model are developed and presented here. The first one represents the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system on a global scale (ANEMI version 2). The second one is developed for a regional presentation of Canada (ANEMI_CDN). The development of the Canada model is based on the top-down approach and various disaggregation techniques. The disaggregation technique also extends the capability of the ANEMI model version 2 in generating monthly data, while the model runs with yearly time step. To evaluate market and nonmarket costs and benefits of climate change, the ANEMI model integrates an economic approach, with a focus on the international energy stock and fuel price, with climate interrelations and temperature change. The model takes into account all major greenhouse gases (GHG) influencing global temperature and sea-level variation. Several of the model sectors are built from the basic structure of the previous version of the ANEMI model (version 1.2) developed by Davies (2009) and reported by Davies and Simonovic (2010; 2011). However, they are integrated in a novel way, particularly the water sectors. The integration of optimization within the simulation framework of the ANEMI model version 2 is timely, as recognition grows of the importance of energy-based economic activities in determining long-term Earth-system behaviour. Experimentation with different policy scenarios demonstrates the consequences of these activities on future behaviour of the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system through feedback based interactions. The use of the model ANEMI version 2 and ANEMI_CDN improves both scientific understanding and socio-economic policy development strategy. This thesis describes the model structure in detail and illustrates its use through the analysis of three policy scenarios in both global and Canadian perspectives.
Download or read book Updated Economic Analysis of the WCI Regional Cap and Trade Program written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Carbon Dynamics and Land Use Choices written by Suzi Kerr and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over fifty years. It combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines, reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs.
Download or read book Projecting Changes in Extreme Precipitation in the Midwestern United States Using North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program NARCCAP Regional Climate Models written by Shuang-Ye Wu and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Mediated Modeling written by Marjan Van den Belt and published by Washington, DC : Island Press. This book was released on 2004-04 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mediated modeling is an innovative new approach that enhances the use of computer models as invaluable tools to guide policy and management decisions. Rather than having outside experts dispensing answers to local stakeholders, mediated modeling brings together diverse interests to raise the shared level of understanding and foster a broad and deep consensus. It provides a structured process based on system dynamics thinking in which community members, government officials, industry representatives, and other stakeholders can work together to produce a coherent, simple but elegant simulation model. Mediated Modeling by Marjan Van Den Belt is a practical guide to participatory modeling for both practitioners and students, one that is firmly theoretically grounded in the field of systems dynamics and environmental modeling. Five in-depth case studies describe the successful use of the technique in a variety of settings, and a final chapter synthesizes the lessons highlighted by the case studies. Mediated Modeling's step-by-step description of the techniques and practical advice regarding implementation offer a real-world solution for all those seeking to make sound decisions about the environment.
Download or read book Cap and trade Program Considerations written by Michael P. Bergmann and published by Nova Science Publishers. This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scientists generally conclude that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases are warming the Earth's climate. Concern about the damage that might result has led policymakers and analysts to consider policies designed to restrict emissions of those gases. One type of policy, a cap-and-trade program, could minimise the cost of achieving a limit, or cap, on emissions by allowing market forces to determine where, how, and to some extent when the cuts in emissions necessary to achieve the cap would be made. This new book examines the potential effects of features that would help manage allowance prices, and thus the cost of complying with a cap-and-trade program.
