Download or read book Using Prediction Uncertainty Analysis to Design Hydrologic Monitoring Networks written by Michael N Fienen and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2014-08-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of monitoring networks for resource-management decisions is becoming more recognized, in both theory and application. Quantitative computer models provide a science-based framework to evaluate the efficacy and efficiency of existing and possible future monitoring networks. In the study described herein, two suites of tools were used to evaluate the worth of new data for specific predictions, which in turn can support efficient use of resources needed to construct a monitoring network. The approach evaluates the uncertainty of a model prediction and, by using linear propagation of uncertainty, estimates how much uncertainty could be reduced if the model were calibrated with addition information (increased a priori knowledge of parameter values or new observations). The theoretical underpinnings of the two suites of tools addressing this technique are compared, and their application to a hypothetical model based on a local model inset into the Great Lakes Water Availability Pilot model are described. Results show that meaningful guidance for monitoring network design can be obtained by using the methods explored. The validity of this guidance depends substantially on the parameterization as well; hence, parameterization must be considered not only when designing the parameter-estimation paradigm but also-importantly-when designing the prediction-uncertainty paradigm.

Download or read book Using prediction uncertainty analysis to design hydrologic monitoring networks written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Using Prediction Uncertainty Analysis to Design Hydrologic Monitoring Networks written by Michael N. Fienen and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Using Coupled Modeling Approaches To Quantify Hydrologic Prediction Uncertainty And To Design Effective Monitoring Networks written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Designing monitoring networks that can discriminate among competing conceptual models is a key challenge for hydrologists. This issue is examined by considering the impact of network design on the utility of measurements for constraining hydrologic prediction uncertainty. Specifically, a three-staged approach was developed and is presented as a set of modeling case studies. The first case study presents a sensitivity analysis that examines conditions under which the proposed measurement method is likely to detect observations associated with the hydrologic process and properties of interest. This application is focused on the use of geomorphic information to estimate infiltration on arid alluvial fans. The second stage is an assessment of the likely utility of the measurement method to determine whether proposed measurements are likely to be useful for identifying hydraulic properties or hydrologic processes. This objective screening approach could reduce the number of unsuccessful uses of geophysical and other indirect measurement methods. A hypothetical site assessment examines whether the measurement method, temporal gravity change, is likely to detect signals associated with drawdown in an unconfined aquifer that occurs in response topumping. Also, the utility of these measurements for identifying hydraulic conductivity and specific yield was considered. The third stage, an analysis of optimal network design, compares the projected measurement costs with the expected benefits of constraining hydrologic prediction uncertainty. The final case study presents a network design approach for a feasibility assessment of a proposed artificial recharge site. Predefined sets of proposed measurements of temporal gravity change were considered for various measurement times. An ensemble approach was used to assess the likely impact of measurement error on prediction error and uncertainty for different combinations of measurement sets. The ensemble of prediction errors was translated to probability-weighted performance costs for each measurement set using a cost function. Total cost was calculated as the sum of the performance and measurement costs. The optimal measurement set, defined as the set with the lowest total cost, depends on the prediction of interest, the per measurement cost, the maximum risk-based cost associated with the hydrologic prediction, and the treatment of uncertainty in defining performance costs.

Download or read book Integrated Groundwater Management written by Anthony J Jakeman and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-08-05 with total page 756 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this book is to document for the first time the dimensions and requirements of effective integrated groundwater management (IGM). Groundwater management is a formidable challenge, one that remains one of humanity’s foremost priorities. It has become a largely non-renewable resource that is overexploited in many parts of the world. In the 21st century, the issue moves from how to simply obtain the water we need to how we manage it sustainably for future generations, future economies, and future ecosystems. The focus then becomes one of understanding the drivers and current state of the groundwater resource, and restoring equilibrium to at-risk aquifers. Many interrelated dimensions, however, come to bear when trying to manage groundwater effectively. An integrated approach to groundwater necessarily involves many factors beyond the aquifer itself, such as surface water, water use, water quality, and ecohydrology. Moreover, the science by itself can only define the fundamental bounds of what is possible; effective IGM must also engage the wider community of stakeholders to develop and support policy and other socioeconomic tools needed to realize effective IGM. In order to demonstrate IGM, this book covers theory and principles, embracing: 1) an overview of the dimensions and requirements of groundwater management from an international perspective; 2) the scale of groundwater issues internationally and its links with other sectors, principally energy and climate change; 3) groundwater governance with regard to principles, instruments and institutions available for IGM; 4) biophysical constraints and the capacity and role of hydroecological and hydrogeological science including water quality concerns; and 5) necessary tools including models, data infrastructures, decision support systems and the management of uncertainty. Examples of effective, and failed, IGM are given. Throughout, the importance of the socioeconomic context that connects all effective IGM is emphasized. Taken as a whole, this work relates the many facets of effective IGM, from the catchment to global perspective.

Download or read book Hydrological Hazard Analysis and Prevention written by Tommaso Caloiero and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2018-11-26 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention" that was published in Geosciences

Download or read book Using an Ensemble of Models to Design a Well Field Considering Regional Hydrologic Uncertainty written by Stephen Hundt and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Groundwater models are often developed as tools for environmental decision-making. However, sparse data availability can limit a model's utility by confounding attempts to select a single structural representation of a system or to find a unique and optimal set of model parameters. As a result, estimates of prediction uncertainty and the value of further data collection may be important results of a modeling effort. The Discrimination/Inference to Reduce Expected Cost Technique (DIRECT) is a new method for developing an ensemble of models that collectively define prediction uncertainty in a manner that supports risk-based decision making and monitoring network design optimization. We apply aspects of DIRECT to a modeling investigation of an aquifer system in Central Utah where a major Coalbed Methane gas field is located and a new approach for stimulating gas production is being explored. In the first stage of this study we develop an ensemble of regional MODFLOW models and calculate their relative likelihood using a set of observation data. These regional results and likelihoods are then transferred to a regional MT3D residence time model and to a local advective transport model to provide further information for the well design. A cost function is applied to the transport results to assess the relative expected costs of several proposed well field designs. The set of hydrologic results and associated likelihoods from the ensemble are combined into cost curves that allow for the selection of designs that minimize expected costs. These curves were found to be a useful tool for visualizing the ways that design decisions and hydrologic results interact to generate costs. Furthermore, these curves reveal ways in which uncertainty can add to the cost of implementing a design. A final analysis explored the cost of having uncertain model results by applying and manipulating synthetic likelihood distributions to the transport results. These results suggest the value that may be added by reducing uncertainty through data collection. Overall, the application of DIRECT was found to provide a rich set of information that is not available when ensemble methods and cost consideration are omitted from a modeling study.

Download or read book Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification in Water Resources Modeling written by Philippe Renard and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2020-04-22 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Numerical models of flow and transport processes are heavily employed in the fields of surface, soil, and groundwater hydrology. They are used to interpret field observations, analyze complex and coupled processes, or to support decision making related to large societal issues such as the water-energy nexus or sustainable water management and food production. Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification are two key features of modern science-based predictions. When applied to water resources, these tasks must cope with many degrees of freedom and large datasets. Both are challenging and require novel theoretical and computational approaches to handle complex models with large number of unknown parameters.

Download or read book Stochastic Modeling in Hydrogeology written by J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-07-14 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dr. Andres Alcolea is employed by Geo-Energie Suisse AG and is the funder and CEO of HydroGeoModels. All other Topic Editors declare no competing interests with regards to the Research Topic subject

Download or read book Review of the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2015-06-10 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Edwards Aquifer in south-central Texas is the primary source of water for one of the fastest growing cities in the United States, San Antonio, and it also supplies irrigation water to thousands of farmers and livestock operators. It is also is the source water for several springs and rivers, including the two largest freshwater springs in Texas that form the San Marcos and Comal Rivers. The unique habitat afforded by these spring-fed rivers has led to the development of species that are found in no other locations on Earth. Due to the potential for variations in spring flow caused by both human and natural causes, these species are continuously at risk and have been recognized as endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA). In an effort to manage the river systems and the aquifer that controls them, the Edwards Aquifer Authority and stakeholders have developed a Habitat Conservation Plan (HCP). The HCP seeks to effectively manage the river-aquifer system to ensure the viability of the ESA-listed species in the face of drought, population growth, and other threats to the aquifer. The National Research Council was asked to assist in this process by reviewing the activities around implementing the HCP. Review of the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan: Report 1 is the first stage of a three-stage study. This report reviews the scientific efforts that are being conducted to help build a better understanding of the river-aquifer system and its relationship to the ESA-listed species. These efforts, which include monitoring and modeling as well as research on key uncertainties in the system, are designed to build a better understanding of how best to manage and protect the system and the endangered species. Thus, the current report is focused specifically on a review of the hydrologic modeling, the ecological modeling, the water quality and biological monitoring, and the Applied Research Program. The fundamental question that Review of the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan: Report 1 addresses is whether the scientific initiatives appropriately address uncertainties and fill knowledge gaps in the river-aquifer system and the species of concern. It is hoped that the successful completion of these scientific initiatives will ultimately lead the Edwards Aquifer Authority to an improved understanding of how to manage the system and protect these species.

Download or read book Uncertainty and Forecasting of Water Quality written by M.B. Beck and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis began its study of water quality modeling and management in 1977, it has been interested in the relations between uncertainty and the problems of model calibration and prediction. The work has focused on the theme of modeling poorly defined environmental systems, a principal topic of the effort devoted to environmental quality control and management. Accounting for the effects of uncertainty was also of central concern to our two case studies of lake eutrophication management, one dealing with Lake Balaton in Hungary and the other with several Austrian lake systems. Thus, in November 1979 we held a meeting at Laxenburg to discuss recent method ological developments in addressing problems associated with uncertainty and forecasting of water quality. This book is based on the proceedings of that meeting. The last few years have seen an increase in awareness of the issue of uncertainty in water quality and ecological modeling. This book is relevant not only to contemporary issues but also to those of the future. A lack of field data will not always be the dominant problem for water quality modeling and management; more sophisticated measuring techniques and more comprehensive monitoring networks will come to be more widely applied. Rather, the important problems of the future are much more likely to emerge from the enhanced facility of data processing and to concern the meaningful interpretation, assimilation., and use of the information thus obtained.

Download or read book Improving Flood Prediction Assimilating Uncertain Crowdsourced Data into Hydrologic and Hydraulic Models written by Maurizio Mazzoleni and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-03-16 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the continued technological advances have led to the spread of low-cost sensors and devices supporting crowdsourcing as a way to obtain observations of hydrological variables in a more distributed way than the classic static physical sensors. The main advantage of using these type of sensors is that they can be used not only by technicians but also by regular citizens. However, due to their relatively low reliability and varying accuracy in time and space, crowdsourced observations have not been widely integrated in hydrological and/or hydraulic models for flood forecasting applications. Instead, they have generally been used to validate model results against observations, in post-event analyses. This research aims to investigate the benefits of assimilating the crowdsourced observations, coming from a distributed network of heterogeneous physical and social (static and dynamic) sensors, within hydrological and hydraulic models, in order to improve flood forecasting. The results of this study demonstrate that crowdsourced observations can significantly improve flood prediction if properly integrated in hydrological and hydraulic models. This study provides technological support to citizen observatories of water, in which citizens not only can play an active role in information capturing, evaluation and communication, leading to improved model forecasts and better flood management.

Download or read book Water Availability and Use Pilot written by Howard William Reeves and published by Geological Survey (USGS). This book was released on 2010 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Handbook of HydroInformatics written by Saeid Eslamian and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-30 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classic Soft-Computing Techniques is the first volume of the three, in the Handbook of HydroInformatics series.? Through this comprehensive, 34-chapters work, the contributors explore the difference between traditional computing, also known as hard computing, and soft computing, which is based on the importance given to issues like precision, certainty and rigor. The chapters go on to define fundamentally classic soft-computing techniques such as Artificial Neural Network, Fuzzy Logic, Genetic Algorithm, Supporting Vector Machine, Ant-Colony Based Simulation, Bat Algorithm, Decision Tree Algorithm, Firefly Algorithm, Fish Habitat Analysis, Game Theory, Hybrid Cuckoo–Harmony Search Algorithm, Honey-Bee Mating Optimization, Imperialist Competitive Algorithm, Relevance Vector Machine, etc.?It is a fully comprehensive handbook providing all the information needed around classic soft-computing techniques. This volume is a true interdisciplinary work, and the audience includes postgraduates and early career researchers interested in Computer Science, Mathematical Science, Applied Science, Earth and Geoscience, Geography, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Water Science, Atmospheric Science, Social Science, Environment Science, Natural Resources, and Chemical Engineering. Key insights from global contributors in the fields of data management research, climate change and resilience, insufficient data problem, etc. Offers applied examples and case studies in each chapter, providing the reader with real world scenarios for comparison. Introduces classic soft-computing techniques, necessary for a range of disciplines.

Download or read book Handbook of Engineering Hydrology written by Saeid Eslamian and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-03-21 with total page 646 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While most books examine only the classical aspects of hydrology, this three-volume set covers multiple aspects of hydrology. It examines new approaches, addresses growing concerns about hydrological and ecological connectivity, and considers the worldwide impact of climate change.It also provides updated material on hydrological science and engine

Download or read book Predictive Uncertainty Analysis for a Hydrologic and Sediment Transport Model written by John Doherty and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Handbook of Engineering Hydrology Three Volume Set written by Saeid Eslamian and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-10-03 with total page 1920 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While most books examine only the classical aspects of hydrology, this three-volume set covers multiple aspects of hydrology, and includes contributions from experts from more than 30 countries. It examines new approaches, addresses growing concerns about hydrological and ecological connectivity, and considers the worldwide impact of climate change