Download or read book Using Bayesian Inference in Design Applications written by Chung Yong Chan and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation presents a new approach for solving scientific and engineering design problems such as the design of antenna arrays and finite impulse response (FIR) filters. In this approach, a design problem is cast as an inverse problem. Bayesian inference has been used extensively to solve inverse problems in various fields, and thus, the tools and methods previously developed for Bayesian inference are adapted and utilized to solve design problems in the present approach. Given a desired design output specified by upper and lower envelopes, the Bayesian inference framework for design is applied to achieve designs that meet the prescribed design specifications and practical design requirements. To obtain a design, Bayesian parameter estimation and model comparison are employed to determine the values of all design parameters. In the design of antenna arrays, the objective is to produce antenna arrays that realize the desired far-field radiation pattern while satisfying all prescribed practical design requirements. In the context of computation, the task is to determine the required number of antenna array elements and the values for the element parameters which include the position, current amplitude and phase. As for digital filter design, the aim is to design linear phase FIR filters that realize the desired frequency magnitude response and satisfy all prescribed practical design requirements. The computational task in this case is to determine the number of filter taps required, the tap positions and the filter coefficients. In the Bayesian inference framework for design, the solution to a design problem is the posterior probability distribution which is a function of the design parameters. The posterior--which comes from Bayes' theorem--is proportional to the product of the likelihood and priors. The likelihood is obtained via the assignment of a probability distribution function to the error between the desired and achieved design output. The assignment of an error distribution incorporates the desired design output into a design process. The priors are assigned probability distribution functions which express the constraints on the design parameters. In addition to the constraints on the design parameters, a design problem may have other practical design requirements which are implemented through the modifications of the likelihood. With the likelihood and priors obtained, the posterior--which cannot be determined analytically--is approximated by a Monte Carlo method. In the approximation, a reasonable number of samples are drawn from the posterior using an appropriate sampling technique such as a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The sampling of the posterior produces an approximate solution to a design problem and concludes the inference portion of the Bayesian inference framework for design. In the context of design, each posterior sample drawn in the Monte Carlo approximation represents a design candidate. As a result, the solution to a design problem consists of a number of potential designs rather than a single final design. To obtain the final design, an additional decision step is required. This final step requires a designer to select a single design candidate as the final design based on additional design criteria. The Bayesian inference framework for design has been applied to the design of both antenna arrays and linear phase FIR filters. The antenna array design examples presented in this dissertation use different types of antenna array such as symmetric linear array with real-valued currents, asymmetric linear array with complex currents, reconfigurable linear array and planar array to realize various desired radiation patterns while satisfying certain prescribed practical design requirements. The radiation patterns that are desired include two broadside patterns, an end-fire pattern, a shaped beam pattern which is the sector beam pattern, and a three-dimensional radiation pattern. Various practical design requirements have been incorporated into the design examples presented in this dissertation. These practical design requirements include a minimum spacing between two adjacent array elements, limitations in the dynamic range and accuracy of the current amplitudes and phases, the ability to maintain a desired radiation pattern over a frequency band, and the ability to maintain a desired radiation pattern when one or more array elements are defective or failing. For the digital filter design application, four design examples are presented. All four examples employ a linear phase FIR filter that has symmetric impulse response and odd filter length to produce various desired frequency responses. In practice, the filter coefficients of a linear phase FIR filter are limited in dynamic range and accuracy. This practical design requirement has been incorporated into two of the design examples where the filter coefficient values are represented by a sum of signed power-of-two terms.

Download or read book Frontiers of Statistical Decision Making and Bayesian Analysis written by Ming-Hui Chen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-07-24 with total page 631 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research in Bayesian analysis and statistical decision theory is rapidly expanding and diversifying, making it increasingly more difficult for any single researcher to stay up to date on all current research frontiers. This book provides a review of current research challenges and opportunities. While the book can not exhaustively cover all current research areas, it does include some exemplary discussion of most research frontiers. Topics include objective Bayesian inference, shrinkage estimation and other decision based estimation, model selection and testing, nonparametric Bayes, the interface of Bayesian and frequentist inference, data mining and machine learning, methods for categorical and spatio-temporal data analysis and posterior simulation methods. Several major application areas are covered: computer models, Bayesian clinical trial design, epidemiology, phylogenetics, bioinformatics, climate modeling and applications in political science, finance and marketing. As a review of current research in Bayesian analysis the book presents a balance between theory and applications. The lack of a clear demarcation between theoretical and applied research is a reflection of the highly interdisciplinary and often applied nature of research in Bayesian statistics. The book is intended as an update for researchers in Bayesian statistics, including non-statisticians who make use of Bayesian inference to address substantive research questions in other fields. It would also be useful for graduate students and research scholars in statistics or biostatistics who wish to acquaint themselves with current research frontiers.

Download or read book Bayesian Applications in Pharmaceutical Development written by Mani Lakshminarayanan and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-07 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The cost for bringing new medicine from discovery to market has nearly doubled in the last decade and has now reached $2.6 billion. There is an urgent need to make drug development less time-consuming and less costly. Innovative trial designs/ analyses such as the Bayesian approach are essential to meet this need. This book will be the first to provide comprehensive coverage of Bayesian applications across the span of drug development, from discovery, to clinical trial, to manufacturing with practical examples. This book will have a wide appeal to statisticians, scientists, and physicians working in drug development who are motivated to accelerate and streamline the drug development process, as well as students who aspire to work in this field. The advantages of this book are: Provides motivating, worked, practical case examples with easy to grasp models, technical details, and computational codes to run the analyses Balances practical examples with best practices on trial simulation and reporting, as well as regulatory perspectives Chapters written by authors who are individual contributors in their respective topics Dr. Mani Lakshminarayanan is a researcher and statistical consultant with more than 30 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry. He has published over 50 articles, technical reports, and book chapters besides serving as a referee for several journals. He has a PhD in Statistics from Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas and is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association. Dr. Fanni Natanegara has over 15 years of pharmaceutical experience and is currently Principal Research Scientist and Group Leader for the Early Phase Neuroscience Statistics team at Eli Lilly and Company. She played a key role in the Advanced Analytics team to provide Bayesian education and statistical consultation at Eli Lilly. Dr. Natanegara is the chair of the cross industry-regulatory-academic DIA BSWG to ensure that Bayesian methods are appropriately utilized for design and analysis throughout the drug-development process.

Download or read book Bayesian Inference with Geodetic Applications written by Karl-Rudolf Koch and published by Springer. This book was released on 2006-04-11 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This introduction to Bayesian inference places special emphasis on applications. All basic concepts are presented: Bayes' theorem, prior density functions, point estimation, confidence region, hypothesis testing and predictive analysis. In addition, Monte Carlo methods are discussed since the applications mostly rely on the numerical integration of the posterior distribution. Furthermore, Bayesian inference in the linear model, nonlinear model, mixed model and in the model with unknown variance and covariance components is considered. Solutions are supplied for the classification, for the posterior analysis based on distributions of robust maximum likelihood type estimates, and for the reconstruction of digital images.

Download or read book Bayesian Inference written by Rosario O. Cardenas and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Inference: Observations and Applications discusses standard Bayesian inference, in which a-priori distributions are standard probability distributions. In some cases, however, a more general form of a-priori distributions (fuzzy a-priori densities) is suitable to model a-priori information. The combination of fuzziness and stochastic uncertainty calls for a generalization of Bayesian inference, i.e. fuzzy Bayesian inference. The authors explain how Bayes theorem may be generalized to handle this situation. Next, they present a decision analytic framework for completing selection of optimal parameters for machining process definition. In addition, a discussion section on the subjects of inference, experimental design, and risk aversion is included. The concluding review focuses on the sparse Bayesian methods from their model specifications, interference algorithms, and applications in sensor array signal processing. Sparse and structured sparse Bayesian methods formulate problems in a probabilistic manner by constructing a hierarchical model, allowing for the obtainment of flexible modeling capability and statistical information. (Bayesian Inference: Observations and Applications discusses standard Bayesian inference, in which a-priori distributions are standard probability distributions. In some cases, however, a more general form of a-priori distributions (fuzzy a-priori densities) is suitable to model a-priori information. The combination of fuzziness and stochastic uncertainty calls for a generalization of Bayesian inference, i.e. fuzzy Bayesian inference. The authors explain how Bayes theorem may be generalized to handle this situation. Next, they present a decision analytic framework for completing selection of optimal parameters for machining process definition. In addition, a discussion section on the subjects of inference, experimental design, and risk aversion is included. The concluding review focuses on the sparse Bayesian methods from their model specifications, interference algorithms, and applications in sensor array signal processing. Sparse and structured sparse Bayesian methods formulate problems in a probabilistic manner by constructing a hierarchical model, allowing for the obtainment of flexible modeling capability and statistical information.

Download or read book Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis written by George E. P. Box and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-25 with total page 610 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Its main objective is to examine the application and relevance of Bayes' theorem to problems that arise in scientific investigation in which inferences must be made regarding parameter values about which little is known a priori. Begins with a discussion of some important general aspects of the Bayesian approach such as the choice of prior distribution, particularly noninformative prior distribution, the problem of nuisance parameters and the role of sufficient statistics, followed by many standard problems concerned with the comparison of location and scale parameters. The main thrust is an investigation of questions with appropriate analysis of mathematical results which are illustrated with numerical examples, providing evidence of the value of the Bayesian approach.

Download or read book Bayesian Networks in Educational Assessment written by Russell G. Almond and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-03-10 with total page 678 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as an integral component of a principled design process, and illustrates the ideas with an in-depth look at the BioMass project: An interactive, standards-based, web-delivered demonstration assessment of science inquiry in genetics. This book is both a resource for professionals interested in assessment and advanced students. Its clear exposition, worked-through numerical examples, and demonstrations from real and didactic applications provide invaluable illustrations of how to use Bayes nets in educational assessment. Exercises follow each chapter, and the online companion site provides a glossary, data sets and problem setups, and links to computational resources.

Download or read book Bayesian Methods in Pharmaceutical Research written by Emmanuel Lesaffre and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-04-15 with total page 547 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the early 2000s, there has been increasing interest within the pharmaceutical industry in the application of Bayesian methods at various stages of the research, development, manufacturing, and health economic evaluation of new health care interventions. In 2010, the first Applied Bayesian Biostatistics conference was held, with the primary objective to stimulate the practical implementation of Bayesian statistics, and to promote the added-value for accelerating the discovery and the delivery of new cures to patients. This book is a synthesis of the conferences and debates, providing an overview of Bayesian methods applied to nearly all stages of research and development, from early discovery to portfolio management. It highlights the value associated with sharing a vision with the regulatory authorities, academia, and pharmaceutical industry, with a view to setting up a common strategy for the appropriate use of Bayesian statistics for the benefit of patients. The book covers: Theory, methods, applications, and computing Bayesian biostatistics for clinical innovative designs Adding value with Real World Evidence Opportunities for rare, orphan diseases, and pediatric development Applied Bayesian biostatistics in manufacturing Decision making and Portfolio management Regulatory perspective and public health policies Statisticians and data scientists involved in the research, development, and approval of new cures will be inspired by the possible applications of Bayesian methods covered in the book. The methods, applications, and computational guidance will enable the reader to apply Bayesian methods in their own pharmaceutical research.

Download or read book Bayesian Inference written by Javier Prieto Tejedor and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2017-11-02 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The range of Bayesian inference algorithms and their different applications has been greatly expanded since the first implementation of a Kalman filter by Stanley F. Schmidt for the Apollo program. Extended Kalman filters or particle filters are just some examples of these algorithms that have been extensively applied to logistics, medical services, search and rescue operations, or automotive safety, among others. This book takes a look at both theoretical foundations of Bayesian inference and practical implementations in different fields. It is intended as an introductory guide for the application of Bayesian inference in the fields of life sciences, engineering, and economics, as well as a source document of fundamentals for intermediate Bayesian readers.

Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Download or read book Bayesian Inference for Gene Expression and Proteomics written by Kim-Anh Do and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-07-24 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert overviews of Bayesian methodology, tools and software for multi-platform high-throughput experimentation.

Download or read book Bayesian Design in Clinical Trials written by and published by . This book was released on 2022-02-25 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Bayesian Adaptive Methods for Clinical Trials written by Scott M. Berry and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2010-07-19 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Already popular in the analysis of medical device trials, adaptive Bayesian designs are increasingly being used in drug development for a wide variety of diseases and conditions, from Alzheimer's disease and multiple sclerosis to obesity, diabetes, hepatitis C, and HIV. Written by leading pioneers of Bayesian clinical trial designs, Bayesian Adapti

Download or read book Bayesian Methods for Hackers written by Cameron Davidson-Pilon and published by Addison-Wesley Professional. This book was released on 2015-09-30 with total page 551 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

Download or read book Practical Applications of Bayesian Reliability written by Yan Liu and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-05-28 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demonstrates how to solve reliability problems using practical applications of Bayesian models This self-contained reference provides fundamental knowledge of Bayesian reliability and utilizes numerous examples to show how Bayesian models can solve real life reliability problems. It teaches engineers and scientists exactly what Bayesian analysis is, what its benefits are, and how they can apply the methods to solve their own problems. To help readers get started quickly, the book presents many Bayesian models that use JAGS and which require fewer than 10 lines of command. It also offers a number of short R scripts consisting of simple functions to help them become familiar with R coding. Practical Applications of Bayesian Reliability starts by introducing basic concepts of reliability engineering, including random variables, discrete and continuous probability distributions, hazard function, and censored data. Basic concepts of Bayesian statistics, models, reasons, and theory are presented in the following chapter. Coverage of Bayesian computation, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, and Gibbs Sampling comes next. The book then goes on to teach the concepts of design capability and design for reliability; introduce Bayesian models for estimating system reliability; discuss Bayesian Hierarchical Models and their applications; present linear and logistic regression models in Bayesian Perspective; and more. Provides a step-by-step approach for developing advanced reliability models to solve complex problems, and does not require in-depth understanding of statistical methodology Educates managers on the potential of Bayesian reliability models and associated impact Introduces commonly used predictive reliability models and advanced Bayesian models based on real life applications Includes practical guidelines to construct Bayesian reliability models along with computer codes for all of the case studies JAGS and R codes are provided on an accompanying website to enable practitioners to easily copy them and tailor them to their own applications Practical Applications of Bayesian Reliability is a helpful book for industry practitioners such as reliability engineers, mechanical engineers, electrical engineers, product engineers, system engineers, and materials scientists whose work includes predicting design or product performance.

Download or read book Rational Descriptions Decisions and Designs written by Myron Tribus and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rational Descriptions, Decisions and Designs is a reference for understanding the aspects of rational decision theory in terms of the basic formalism of information theory. The text provides ways to achieve correct engineering design decisions. The book starts with an understanding for the need to apply rationality, as opposed to uncertainty, in design decision making. Inductive logic in computers is explained where the design of the machine and the accompanying software are considered. The text then explains the functional equations and the problems of arriving at a rational description through some mathematical preliminaries. Bayes' equation and rational inference as tools for adjusting probabilities when something new is encountered in earlier probability distributions are explained. The book presents as well a case study concerning the error made in following specifications of spark plugs. The author also explains the Bernoulli trials, where a probability that a better hypothesis than that already adopted may exist. The rational measure of uncertainty and the principle of maximum entropy with sample calculations are included in the text. After considering the probabilities, the decision theory is taken up where engineering design follows. Examples regarding transmitter and voltmeter designs are presented. The book ends by explaining probabilities of success and failure as applied to reliability engineering, that it is a state of knowledge rather than the state of a thing. The text can serve as a textbook for students in technology engineering and design, and as a useful reference for mathematicians, statisticians, and fabrication engineers.

Download or read book Bayesian Analysis with R for Drug Development written by Harry Yang and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-06-26 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drug development is an iterative process. The recent publications of regulatory guidelines further entail a lifecycle approach. Blending data from disparate sources, the Bayesian approach provides a flexible framework for drug development. Despite its advantages, the uptake of Bayesian methodologies is lagging behind in the field of pharmaceutical development. Written specifically for pharmaceutical practitioners, Bayesian Analysis with R for Drug Development: Concepts, Algorithms, and Case Studies, describes a wide range of Bayesian applications to problems throughout pre-clinical, clinical, and Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Control (CMC) development. Authored by two seasoned statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry, the book provides detailed Bayesian solutions to a broad array of pharmaceutical problems. Features Provides a single source of information on Bayesian statistics for drug development Covers a wide spectrum of pre-clinical, clinical, and CMC topics Demonstrates proper Bayesian applications using real-life examples Includes easy-to-follow R code with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo performed in both JAGS and Stan Bayesian software platforms Offers sufficient background for each problem and detailed description of solutions suitable for practitioners with limited Bayesian knowledge Harry Yang, Ph.D., is Senior Director and Head of Statistical Sciences at AstraZeneca. He has 24 years of experience across all aspects of drug research and development and extensive global regulatory experiences. He has published 6 statistical books, 15 book chapters, and over 90 peer-reviewed papers on diverse scientific and statistical subjects, including 15 joint statistical works with Dr. Novick. He is a frequent invited speaker at national and international conferences. He also developed statistical courses and conducted training at the FDA and USP as well as Peking University. Steven Novick, Ph.D., is Director of Statistical Sciences at AstraZeneca. He has extensively contributed statistical methods to the biopharmaceutical literature. Novick is a skilled Bayesian computer programmer and is frequently invited to speak at conferences, having developed and taught courses in several areas, including drug-combination analysis and Bayesian methods in clinical areas. Novick served on IPAC-RS and has chaired several national statistical conferences.