Download or read book Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones written by Asuka Suzuki-Parker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-05 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters, which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.
Download or read book An Assessment of Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Future Changes written by Asuka Suzuki-Parker and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent elevated North Atlantic hurricane activity has generated considerable interests in the interaction between tropical cyclones (TCs) and climate change. The possible connection between TCs and the changing climate has been indicated by observational studies based on historical TC records; they indicate emerging trends in TC frequency and intensity in some TC basins, but the detection of trends has been hotly debated due to TC track data issues. Dynamical climate modeling has also been applied to the problem, but brings its own set of limitations owing to limited model resolution and uncertainties. : The final goal of this study is to project the future changes of North Atlantic TC behavior with global warming for the next 50 years using the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). Throughout the course of reaching this goal, various uncertainties and limitations in simulating TCs by the NRCM are identified and explored.
Download or read book Hurricane Risk written by Jennifer M. Collins and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book details the outcomes of new research focusing on climate risk related to hurricanes. Topics include numerical simulation of tropical cyclones, through tropical cyclone hazard estimation to damage estimates and their implications for commercial risk. Inspired by the 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change: From Hazard to Impact, this book brings together leading international academics and researchers, and provides a source reference for both risk managers and climate scientists for research on the interface between tropical cyclones, climate and risk.
Download or read book Simulations Of Tropical Cyclone In Regional Climate Models written by Zhong Zhong and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2018-02-01 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book studies the pitfalls of regional climate models in simulating track and intensity of tropical cyclone over western North Pacific for the East Asian summer monsoon climate.A number of sensitivity experiments related to tropical cyclone simulation with different model configurations and model physical schemes, including model resolution, model lateral boundary condition, effect of sea surface temperature, cumulus parameterization scheme and model microphysics scheme, as well as the features and the failure of tropical cyclone simulation in regional climate models were carefully analyzed with model output with high temporal resolution, to investigate shortcomings of the models, so as to come up with better models to simulate and study tropical cyclone track and intensity.The book is suitable for graduate students in meteorology with focuses in the tropical cyclone simulation, as well as professionals devoted to model development and study of tropical cyclone activities.
Download or read book Advances in Geosciences written by Kenji Satake and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2012 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This invaluable volume set of Advances in Geosciences continues the excellent tradition of the Asia-Oceania scientific community in providing the most up-to-date research results on a wide range of geosciences and environmental science. The information is vital to the understanding of the effects of climate change and extreme weather on the most populated regions and fastest moving economies in the world. Besides, these volumes also highlight original papers from many prestigious research institutions which are conducting cutting-edge studies in atmospheric physics, hydrogical science and water resource, ocean science and coastal study, planetary exploration and solar system science, seismology, tsunamis, upper atmospheric physics and space science.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones written by Richard Anthes and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-29 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical Cyclones and hurricanes, long feared for the death and destruction that often accompanies them, are among the most fascinating of atmospheric phenomena. Created by thermodynamic processes, they unleash vast amounts of energy and influence a wide variety of natural processes along their paths. Richard Anthes tells the story of tropical cyclones creation and destruction, of meteorology's successes in understanding, modeling and predicting their behavior, and of the attempts to modify them. The book begins with a lively introduction to hurricanes, their awesome power, and their effects on individuals and societies in the past and present. The characteristics of the mature hurricane are revealed by consideration of rawinsonde, aircraft and satellite data. The physical processes responsible for the development and maintenance of tropical cyclones are treated comprehensively, and illustrated with both qualitative and quantitative examples. The role of the planetary boundary layer, cumulus convection and radiation are all discussed in detail. Progress in numerical simulation of tropical cyclones is carefully reviewed. Modern, three-dimensional models succeed in simulating observed features such as the eye and spiral rain bands and in predicting storm motion over time intervals of three days. Current capabilities to predict and modify hurricanes and tropical cyclones are fully examined. The methods and difficulties of operational forecasting, the economic aspects of storm predictions, and the trends in accuracy of offical forecasts are all considered. The potential benefits and scientific problems associated with hurricane modification are discussed as part of a review of experimental and theoretical results on the consquences of seeding hurricane clouds. A unique feature of the book is a thorough treatment of the interactions between storm and ocean, with both observations and thery being integrated to provide a complete description.
Download or read book Global Perspectives On Tropical Cyclones From Science To Mitigation written by Johnny C L Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010-04-30 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
Download or read book Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones written by Johnny C. L. Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pt. I. Theory of tropical cyclones. ch. 1. Tropical cyclone structure and dynamics / Jeffrey D. Kepert. ch. 2. Tropical cyclone formation / Kevin J. Tory and William M. Frank. ch. 3. Air-sea interactions in tropical cyclones / Lynn K. Shay. ch. 4. Movement of tropical cyclones / Johnny C.L. Chan. ch. 5. The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones : structural characteristics, downstream impacts, and forecast challenges / Patrick A. Harr -- pt. II. Observations of tropical cyclones. ch. 6. Observing and analyzing the near-surface wind field in tropical cyclones / Mark D. Powell. ch. 7. Satellite observations of tropical cyclones / Christopher Velden and Jeffrey Hawkins. ch. 8. Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones / Sim D. Aberson [und weitere] -- pt. III. Climate variations of tropical cyclone activity. ch. 9. Tropical cyclones and climate change : a review / Thomas Knutson, Chris Landsea and Kerry Emanuel -- pt. IV. Forecasting of tropical cyclones. ch. 10. Track and structure forecasts of tropical cyclones / Julian Heming and Jim Goerss. ch. 11. The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity / Suzana J. Camargo [und weitere] -- pt. V. Hydrological aspects of tropical cyclones. ch. 12. Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas / Shishir K. Dube [und weitere] -- pt. VI. Societal impacts of tropical cyclones. ch. 13. Disaster mitigation and societal impacts / David King, Jim Davidson and Linda Anderson-Berry
Download or read book Simulation of Historical New England Tropical Cyclones written by Ryan Michael Remondelli and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New England (NE) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) can produce significant damage, as well as provide increased forecast track and intensity complexity for forecasters. This is the result of the fact that these TCs recurve, often undergo extratropical transition, and are also forced via midlatitude dynamics that can act as a source of simulation track, structural, and intensity uncertainty. Consequently, not only do forecasters still struggle with forecasting NE TCs in real-time, but the region has had few such cases to quantify our ability to predict these storms in an age when they can now be explicitly resolved by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The track predictability of historical landfalling NE TCs was explored in this study through hindcasts of all landfalling NE TCs from 1900-2011. Utilizing version 4.1.1 of the Weather Forecast and Research Model Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with two outer fixed domains (27 km, 9km), as well as a vortex-following inner domain (3 km), 18 cases were examined beginning 7 days prior landfall. As a result of utilizing relatively coarse ERA-20C analysis as boundary and initial conditions, WRF's vortex removal and insertion scheme was employed to provide more plausible initial conditions for the hindcasts that can be provided by ERA-20C alone. The resulting total-track, cross-track, and along-track errors were calculated and then compared to various recent model track forecast errors as well as the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) official track forecast errors. The evolution of the synoptic-scale patterns leading up to the time of landfall for these 18 TCs was then investigated. The distance of the simulated TCs to their surrounding troughs and ridges was also investigated. An objective climatology of the nearby trough, ridge, and jet axis locations was determined and analyzed. This analysis found that the average predictability of the historical NE TCs was low compared to a recent NHC climatology of forecast track errors. Lead times for when landfall projections occurred on long track Main Development Region storms were between 2 and 3 days before landfall. These results argue that the predictability of NE TCs utilizing a state of the art WRF model remains limited, giving inadequate lead time for emergency managers and forecasters.
Download or read book Current Topics in Tropical Cyclone Research written by Anthony Lupo and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-11-04 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights some of the most recent research in the climatological behavior of tropical cyclones as well as the dynamics, predictability, and character of these storms as derived using remote sensing techniques. Also included in this book is a review of the interaction between tropical cyclones and coastal ocean dynamics in the Northwest Pacific and an evaluation of the performance of CMIP6 models in replicating the current climate using accumulated cyclone energy. The latter demonstrates how the climate may change in the future. This book can be a useful resource for those studying the character of these storms, especially those with the goal of anticipating their future occurrence in both the short and climatological range and their associated hazards.
Download or read book Advanced Numerical Modeling and Data Assimilation Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Predictions written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-21 with total page 762 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals primarily with monitoring, prediction and understanding of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). It was envisioned to serve as a teaching and reference resource at universities and academic institutions for researchers and post-graduate students. It has been designed to provide a broad outlook on recent advances in observations, assimilation and modeling of TCs with detailed and advanced information on genesis, intensification, movement and storm surge prediction. Specifically, it focuses on (i) state-of-the-art observations for advancing TC research, (ii) advances in numerical weather prediction for TCs, (iii) advanced assimilation and vortex initialization techniques, (iv) ocean coupling, (v) current capabilities to predict TCs, and (vi) advanced research in physical and dynamical processes in TCs. The chapters in the book are authored by leading international experts from academic, research and operational environments. The book is also expected to stimulate critical thinking for cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, and graduate and post-graduate students to carry out future research in the field of TCs.
Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Download or read book Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change written by Yassine Charabi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-01-19 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical cyclones are topic that is not appropriately known to the public at large, but climate change has been on the public’s mind since the last decade and a concern that has peaked in the new millennium. Like the television programs of Jean Yves Cousteau the ‘plight of the oceans’, have recent documentaries nurtured a conscio- ness that major climatological changes are in the offing, even have started to develop. The retreat of glaciers on mountain tops and in Polar Regions is ‘being seen’ on ‘the small screen’ and has favored an environmental awareness in all populations that are enjoying an average well-being on Planet Earth. The vivid images on screen of storms, floods, and tsunamis share the fear provoking landscapes of deforestation, desertification and the like. Watching such as this one is seen are voices warning of what over is ‘in store’ if the causative problems are not remedied. Talking and d- cussing are useful, but action must follow. Understanding the full ramifications of climate change on tropical cyclones is a task that will takes several decades. In Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a high probability of major changes in tropical cyclone activity across the various ocean basins is highlighted.
Download or read book High Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance activity. This will allow (i) a direct comparison of future TC activity that could be expected for an active or inactive season in an altered climate regime, and (ii) a measure of the level of uncertainty and variability in TC activity resulting from different carbon emission scenarios.
Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Download or read book Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones Evaluated Through Convection permitting Ensemble Analyses and Forecasts with Airborne Radar and Sounding Observations written by Erin Munsell and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dynamics and predictability of various aspects of tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasting are explored through the use of real-time convection-permitting ensemble forecasts generated by a regional-scale model that employs advanced data assimilation techniques. Airborne Doppler radar observations, as well as sounding observations gathered during NASAs Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) are assimilated and the resulting sensitivity and uncertainty of divergent track and intensity forecasts for three Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs; Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricane Nadine (2012), and Hurricane Edouard (2014)) are explored. Ensemble members are separated into groups according to their performance and composite analyses and ensemble sensitivity techniques are employed to diagnose the sources of greatest sensitivity and uncertainty, as well as to dynamically explain the divergent behavior observed in the forecasts.The analysis of the Hurricane Sandy (2012) ensemble reveals that the divergent track forecasts result from differences in the location of Sandy that develop over the first 48-h of the simulation as a result of variance in the strength of the environmental winds that Sandy is embedded in throughout this period. Disparities in the strength and position of an approaching mid-latitude trough yield divergence in track forecasts of Hurricane Nadine (2012); an increased interaction between the mid-latitude system and the TC steers Nadine eastward, while a reduced interaction allows the TC to be steered westward ahead of the approaching trough. In addition, the inclusion of 6-h sea surface temperature (SST) updates considerably improves Nadines intensity forecasts, highlighting the importance of accurate SST fields when simulating TCs embedded in marginally favorable environmental conditions. Finally, considerable variance in the rapid intensification (RI) onset time in the Hurricane Edouard (2014) ensemble results from small distinctions in the magnitude of deep-layer shear prior to RI, which contributes to differences in the vortex tilt magnitude, the strength and location of the inner-core convection associated with the developing vortex, and the subsequent precession process.
Download or read book Hurricanes written by Henry F. Diaz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hurricanes of the North Atlantic Ocean have left their imprint on the landscape and human cultures for thousands of years. In modern times, fewer lifes have been lost due, in part, to the development of modern communication systems, and to improved understanding of the mechanisms of storm formation and movement. However, the immense growth of human populations in coastal areas, which are at risk to hurricanes, has resulted in very large increases in the amount of property damage sustained in the last decade in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean regions. This book is of interest to climatologists and meteorologists and as source of information for policymakers and emergency management planners.
