Download or read book U S stock market crash risk 1926 2006 written by David S. Bates and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper applies the Bates (RFS, 2006) methodology to the problem of estimating and filtering time- changed Lévy processes, using daily data on U.S. stock market excess returns over 1926-2006. In contrast to density-based filtration approaches, the methodology recursively updates the associated conditional characteristic functions of the latent variables. The paper examines how well time-changed Lévy specifications capture stochastic volatility, the "leverage" effect, and the substantial outliers occasionally observed in stock market returns. The paper also finds that the autocorrelation of stock market excess returns varies substantially over time, necessitating an additional latent variable when analyzing historical data on stock market returns. The paper explores option pricing implications, and compares the results with observed prices of options on S & P 500 futures.

Download or read book Stock Market Crashes Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them written by William T Ziemba and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2017-08-30 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authors’ research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.'Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.

Download or read book The 1929 Stock Market Crash written by Marty Gitlin and published by ABDO. This book was released on 2008-01-01 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores the 1929 Stock Market Crash and how that event has sculpted societies, the sciences, and politics.

Download or read book The Stock Market Crash of 1929 written by Gordon V. Axon and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents a view of the shocking financial event in the history of the United States, and connects that event to the world of today.

Download or read book The Stock Market Crash of 1929 written by Mary Gow and published by Enslow Publishing. This book was released on 2003 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The day of October 24, 1929, will be forever remembered as "Black Thursday." On this day, stock prices plummeted. By the following Tuesday, Wall Street had suffered the worst stock market crash in history, changing the lives of millions of Americans. Fortunes and life savings were wiped out. People's confidence in business was shattered. After the crash, weaknesses that were already present in the U. S. economy raced out of control. Unemployment soared. Factories and stores closed. Poverty and despair settled over millions of Americans. The stock market crash of 1929 marked the end of a decade of prosperity as the nation found itself swept into the Great Depression. In The Stock Market Crash of 1929: Dawn of the Great Depression, author Mary Gow captures this important period in U. S. history through firsthand accounts and quotes. Also examined are subsequent economic crises, up to the present day. Book jacket.

Download or read book The last three Stock Market Crashes Can Boom and Bust be predicted written by Arthur Ritter and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2015-02-10 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay from the year 2014 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 15,0, University of St Andrews (School of Management), course: Corporate Finace, language: English, abstract: Stock market crashes had occurred in the financial market since the very beginning and in every generation. “Greed, hubris and systemic fluctuations have given us the Tulip Mania, the South Sea bubble, the land booms in the 1920s and 1980s, the U.S. stock market and great crash in 1929, the October 1987 crash, to name just a few of the hundreds of ready examples“. This essay will compare and contrast the last three major stock market crashes in 1987, 2000 and 2007. To do this, the essay will pay special emphasis on the causes of the three crashes. From there the essay will draw out the similarities and differences and will answer the question if boom and bust can be predicted.

Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School

Download or read book 2017 Stocks Bonds Bills and Inflation SBBI Yearbook written by Roger Ibbotson and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2017-04-10 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The latest, most complete data for more informed investment decisions The 2017 Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook is the industry standard performance data reference, with comprehensive records dating back to 1926. Covering common stocks, long-term government bonds, long-term corporate bonds, Treasury bills, and the Consumer Price Index, this book provides the essential information advisors, planners, and brokers need to analyze asset class performance. Historical return figures include the riskless rate of interest, equity risk premium, bond default premium, and the maturity premium between the return on long-term governments and Treasury bills, and total returns and index values cover large and small company stocks, long- and intermediate-term government bonds, inflation, and more. Charts and graphs allow for quick visual reference, and a clear hierarchical organization pattern facilitates efficient data location. As the go-to reference for information and capital market returns, this book provides investors with the critical background they need to analyze future investments. With the most complete historical data available, investors will be able to: Find annual index levels and total rates of return for five basic asset series Access historical return figures for four component series Estimate cost-of-capital based on comprehensive, reliable data Make informed judgments about future investment opportunities Performance analysis is critical to successful investing, but the analysis can only be as useful as the data is accurate. Decisions made from scant information are not good investment decisions; investors need complete, top-quality data to make informed choices and properly balance risk with reward. The 2017 Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook is the definitive study of historical capital market data in the United States, and the gold-standard reference industry-wide.

Download or read book Financial Economics written by Antonio Mele and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-11-22 with total page 1147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive reference for financial economics, balancing theoretical explanations, empirical evidence, and the practical relevance of knowledge in the field. This volume offers a comprehensive, integrated treatment of financial economics, tracking the major milestones in the field and providing methodological tools. Doing so, it balances theoretical explanations, empirical evidence, and practical relevance. It illustrates nearly a century of theoretical advances with a vast array of models, showing how real phenomena (and, at times, market practice) have helped economists reformulate existing theories. Throughout, the book offers examples and solved problems that help readers understand the main lessons conveyed by the models analyzed. The book provides a unique and authoritative reference for the field of financial economics. Part I offers the foundations of the field, introducing asset evaluation, information problems in asset markets and corporate finance, and methods of statistical inference. Part II explains the main empirical facts and the challenges these pose for financial economists, which include excess price volatility, market liquidity, market dysfunctionalities, and the countercyclical behavior of market volatility. Part III covers the main instruments that protect institutions against the volatilities and uncertainties of capital markets described in part II. Doing so, it relies on models that have become the market standard, and incorporates practices that emerged from the 2007–2008 financial crisis.

Download or read book The Great Crash of 1929 written by A. Kabiri and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-11-25 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the American stock market boom and bust of the 1920s is vital for formulating policies to combat the potentially deleterious effects of busts on the economy. Using new data, Kabiri explains what led to the 1920s stock market boom and 1929 crash and looks at whether 1929 was a bubble or not and whether it could have been anticipated.

Download or read book Investing 101 written by Kathy Kristof and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-08-01 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People wanting basic advice about stocks, bonds, mutual funds, retirement planning, and tax strategies are often frustrated by information overload. Picking the right book seems as daunting as deciding what to do with their savings and investments. Investing 101: Updated and Expanded removes both roadblocks, putting people on a path that they can understand and stick with. Kristof is renowned for taking the mystery and anxiety out of investing by keeping choices manageable. Kristof walks readers through the entire investment cycle and the way they think of their financial lives, rather than presenting stand-alone concepts like stocks and real estate. This expanded edition has new information about 529 college savings plans, annuities, Roth IRAs, reverse mortgages, and why declining markets can be good for you. It includes a cautionary look at home mortgages as investments. There's even a portfolio for the lazy investor. Kristof's loyal readership and the success of this book's first edition demonstrate that she understands what's on the minds of investors as intimately as she knows what’s happening in financial markets. Winner: Cover and Interior Design, The Bookbinders Guild of New York/2009 New York Book Show Awards

Download or read book Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes Second Edition written by Harold L. Vogel and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-16 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.

Download or read book This Time Is Different written by Carmen M. Reinhart and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-07 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.

Download or read book Invest to Win in All Seasons written by Conrad F. Eversbusch and published by AuthorHouse. This book was released on 2008-07-24 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book enables you to invest successfully in a variety of financial assets under many economic conditions. It conveys a fundamental understanding of the economy and its major investment categories. There is always an opportunity somewhere, but you have to know how to seize it.

Download or read book The Efficient Market Theory and Evidence written by Andrew Ang and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2011 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) asserts that, at all times, the price of a security reflects all available information about its fundamental value. The implication of the EMH for investors is that, to the extent that speculative trading is costly, speculation must be a loser's game. Hence, under the EMH, a passive strategy is bound eventually to beat a strategy that uses active management, where active management is characterized as trading that seeks to exploit mispriced assets relative to a risk-adjusted benchmark. The EMH has been refined over the past several decades to reflect the realism of the marketplace, including costly information, transactions costs, financing, agency costs, and other real-world frictions. The most recent expressions of the EMH thus allow a role for arbitrageurs in the market who may profit from their comparative advantages. These advantages may include specialized knowledge, lower trading costs, low management fees or agency costs, and a financing structure that allows the arbitrageur to undertake trades with long verification periods. The actions of these arbitrageurs cause liquid securities markets to be generally fairly efficient with respect to information, despite some notable anomalies.

Download or read book High Returns from Low Risk written by Pim van Vliet and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-01-17 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Believing "high-risk equals high-reward" is holding your portfolio hostage High Returns from Low Risk proves that low-volatility, low-risk portfolios beat high-volatility portfolios hands down, and shows you how to take advantage of this paradox to dramatically improve your returns. Investors traditionally view low-risk stocks as safe but unprofitable, but this old canard is based on a flawed premise; it fails to see beyond the monthly horizon, and ignores compounding returns. This book updates the thinking and brings reality to modelling to show how low-risk stocks actually outperform high-risk stocks by an order of magnitude. Easy to read and easy to implement, the plan presented here will help you construct a portfolio that delivers higher returns per unit of risk, and explains how to achieve excellent investment results over the long term. Do you still believe that investors are rewarded for bearing risk, and that the higher the risk, the greater the reward? That old axiom is holding you back, and it is time to start seeing the whole picture. This book shows you, through deep historical simulation, how to reap the rewards of smarter investing. Learn how and why low-risk, low-volatility stocks beat the market Discover the formula that outperforms Greenblatt's Construct your own low-risk portfolio Select the right ETF or low-risk fund to manage your money Great returns and lower risk sound like a winning combination — what happens once everyone is doing it? The beauty of the low-risk strategy is that it continues to work even after the paradox is widely known; long-term investment success is possible for anyone who can shake off the entrenched wisdom and go low-risk. High Returns from Low Risk provides the proof, model and strategy to reign in your exposure while raking in the profit.

Download or read book Stocks Bonds Bills and Inflation 2006 Yearbook written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: