Download or read book Two Essays on Idiosyncratic Volatility of Stock Markets written by Sen Dong and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Two Essays on Idiosyncratic Volatility of Stock Markets written by Sen Dong and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Two Essays on Idiosyncratic Volatility of Stock Markets" by 董森, Sen, Dong, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3122593 Subjects: Stocks - Prices - Mathematical models

Download or read book Three Essays on Stock Market Volatility written by Chengbo Fu and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays on stock market volatility. In the first essay, we show that investors will have the information in the idiosyncratic volatility spread when using two different models to estimate idiosyncratic volatility. In a theoretical framework, we show that idiosyncratic volatility spread is related to the change in beta and the new betas from the extra factors between two different factor models. Empirically, we find that idiosyncratic volatility spread predicts the cross section of stock returns. The negative spread-return relation is independent from the relation between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. The result is driven by the change in beta component and the new beta component of the spread. The spread-relation is also robust when investors estimate the spread using a conditional model or EGARCH method. In the second essay, the variance of stock returns is decomposed based on a conditional Fama-French three-factor model instead of its unconditional counterpart. Using time-varying alpha and betas in this model, it is evident that four additional risk terms must be considered. They include the variance of alpha, the variance of the interaction between the time-varying component of beta and factors, and two covariance terms. These additional risk terms are components that are included in the idiosyncratic risk estimate using an unconditional model. By investigating the relation between the risk terms and stock returns, we find that only the variance of the time-varying alpha is negatively associated with stock returns. Further tests show that stock returns are not affected by the variance of time-varying beta. These results are consistent with the findings in the literature identifying return predictability from time-varying alpha rather than betas. In the third essay, we employ a two-step estimation method to separate the upside and downside idiosyncratic volatility and examine its relation with future stock returns. We find that idiosyncratic volatility is negatively related to stock returns when the market is up and when it is down. The upside idiosyncratic volatility is not related to stock returns. Our results also suggest that the relation between downside idiosyncratic volatility and future stock returns is negative and significant. It is the downside idiosyncratic volatility that drives the inverse relation between total idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. The results are consistent with the literature that investor overreact to bad news and underreact to good news.

Download or read book Two Essays on the Impact of Idiosyncratic Risk on Asset Returns written by Jie Cao and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this dissertation, I explore the impact of idiosyncratic risk on asset returns. The first essay examines how idiosyncratic risk affects the cross-section of stock returns. I use an exponential GARCH model to forecast expected idiosyncratic volatility and employ a combination of the size effect, value premium, return momentum and short-term reversal to measure relative mispricing. I find that stock returns monotonically increase in idiosyncratic risk for relatively undervalued stocks and monotonically decrease in idiosyncratic risk for relatively overvalued stocks. This phenomenon is robust to various subsamples and industries, and cannot be explained by risk factors or firm characteristics. Further, transaction costs, short-sale constraints and information uncertainty cannot account for the role of idiosyncratic risk. Overall, these findings are consistent with the limits of arbitrage arguments and demonstrate the importance of idiosyncratic risk as an arbitrage cost. The second essay studies the cross-sectional determinants of delta-hedged stock option returns with an emphasis on the pricing of volatility risk. We find that the average delta-hedged option returns are significantly negative for most stocks, and they decrease monotonically with both total and idiosyncratic volatility of the underlying stock. Our results are robust and cannot be explained by the Fama-French factors, market volatility risk, jump risk, or the effect of past stock return and volatility-related option mispricing. Our results strongly support a negative market price of volatility risk specification that is proportional to the volatility level. Reflecting this volatility risk premium, writing covered calls on high volatility stocks on average earns about 2% more per month than selling covered calls on low volatility stocks. This spread is higher when it is more difficult to arbitrage between stock and option.

Download or read book Three Essays on Idiosyncratic Volatility written by Anas Aboulamer and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays. The first essay (chapter two) examines the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and future returns in the Canadian market. The negative relationship between realized idiosyncratic volatility (RIvol) and future returns uncovered by Ang et al. (2006) for the US market has been attributed to return reversals. For the Canadian market where return reversals have considerably less importance, we find that RIvol is positively related to future returns, even after controlling for risk loadings, illiquidity and reversals. Unlike the findings of Bali et al. (2011) for the US market, we find for the Canadian market that the relationship between extreme positive returns and future returns is positive and that idiosyncratic volatility is consistently positively related to future returns. The second essay (chapter three) discusses the relationship between closed end fund discounts and the level of uncertainty about its holdings. Our trade-off model states that the intrinsic premium of a closed-end fund (CEF) is equal to the CEF’s price minus both its NAVPS (net asset value per share) and the net present value (NPV) of its future benefits from liquidity, managerial abilities and leverage minus its managerial costs. Any additional premium will persist to the extent that arbitrage between these two price series is both costly and risky. We find that arbitrage incompleteness due to the uncertainties about this NPV and the CEF’s holdings, as captured by idiosyncratic risk and other proxies, explains over two-thirds of the variation in CEF premiums or their changes. As expected, we find that the CEF premium is negatively related to gross leverage, management fees, cash and bond holdings, and positively related to liquidity enhancement, CEF performance and net leverage. These results are consistent with our finding that changes in CEF prices and NAVPS are more integrated than segmented using the Kappa test of Kapadia and Pu (2012). The third essay (chapter four) investigates the information content of idiosyncratic volatility around the public release of M&A rumors. We examine the releases of hand-collected initial rumors about potential M&A for 2250 firms. Unlike previous research, we find that a strategy of investing in firms with rumors of lower (greater) credibility yields negative (positive) changes in idiosyncratic volatilities around the rumor dates and subsequent returns. We argue that this asymmetric effect on idiosyncratic volatilities is linked to asymmetric changes in the heterogeneity of the probabilities of actual M&A when conditioned on rumor credibility. Changes in idiosyncratic volatilities are positively related to the market implicit probabilities of M&A as measured by the ratio of the market values at the M&A announcement and rumor dates.

Download or read book Essays on Idiosyncratic Volatility and Asset Pricing written by Fatma Sonmez Saryal and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this thesis, I study three aspects of idiosyncratic volatility. First, I examine the relation between idiosyncratic volatility and future stock returns. Next, I examine the share price effect and its interaction with the idiosyncratic volatility on stock returns. Finally, I examine the time series pattern of monthly aggregate monthly idiosyncratic volatility. In the first chapter, I examine the relation between idiosyncratic volatility and future stock returns. In their paper, Ang, Hodrick, Xing, and Zhang [AHXZ (2006)] show that idiosyncratic volatility is inversely related to future stock returns: low idiosyncratic volatility stocks earn higher returns than do high idiosyncratic volatility stocks. The main contribution of this paper is to provide evidence that it is the month to month changes in idiosyncratic volatility that produce AHXZ's results. More specifically, a portfolio of stocks that move from Quintile 1 (low idiosyncratic volatility) to Quintile 5 (high idiosyncratic volatility) earns an average risk-adjusted return of 5.64% per month in the month of the change. Whereas, a portfolio of stocks that move from the highest to the lowest idiosyncratic volatility quintiles earns -0.94% per month in the month of the change. Eliminating all firm-month observations with idiosyncratic volatility quintile changes, I find the opposite results to AHXZ: it is persistently low idiosyncratic volatility stocks that earn lower returns than do persistently high idiosyncratic volatility stocks. I find that many of the extreme changes in idiosyncratic volatility are related to business events. In general, the pattern usually observed is that an announcement or an event increases uncertainty about a stock and hence, its idiosyncratic volatility increases. After the event, uncertainty is resolved and the stock returns to a lower idiosyncratic volatility quintile. In the second chapter, I examine how the level of the share price interacts with idiosyncratic volatility to affect future stock returns. Ignoring transaction costs, a trading strategy that is long high-priced and short low-priced stocks earns positive abnormal returns with respect to the Fama-French (1992) three factor model. However, the observed positive abnormal returns are less significant if momentum is taken into account via the Carhart (1997) four factor model. Also the relation between idiosyncratic volatility and future stock returns differs for price sorted portfolios: it is negative for low and mid-priced stocks but positive for high-priced ones. These results are robust for low and-mid-priced stocks even after momentum is included. However, the positive relation for high-priced stocks disappears due to relatively large loadings on momentum for high idiosyncratic volatility stocks. I also show that skewness and momentum are significant determinants of idiosyncratic volatility for low-priced stocks and high-priced stocks respectively. One implication is that the importance of idiosyncratic volatility for future stock returns may in part be due its role as a disguised risk factor: either for momentum for high-priced stocks and skewness for low and mid-priced stocks. In the third chapter, I investigate the time series pattern of aggregate monthly idiosyncratic volatility. It has been shown that new riskier listings in the US stock markets are a reason for the increase in idiosyncratic volatility during the period 1963-2004. First, I show that this is more pronounced for Nasdaq new listings. Second, I show that for Nasdaq, prior to 1994 low-priced new listings became riskier, whereas during the internet bubble period it is the higher-priced listings that became riskier. Third, I show that institutional holdings have increased over time and have had a different impact on each new listing group: a negative for pre-1994 listings and a positive impact for post-1994 listings. Hence, I conclude that the observed time-series pattern of idiosyncratic volatility is a result of the changing nature of Nasdaq's investor clientele.

Download or read book Two Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing written by Yangqiulu Luo and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of two essays on empirical asset pricing. The first essay examines if the idiosyncratic risk is priced. Theories such as Merton (1987) predict that idiosyncratic risk should be priced when investors do not diversify their portfolio. However, the previous literature has presented a mixed set of results of the pricing of idiosyncratic risk. We find strong evidence that idiosyncratic risk is priced differently across bull and bear markets. For the sample period from June 1946 to the end of 2010, a factor portfolio long on stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility and short on stocks with low idiosyncratic volatility yields an equal-weighted monthly return of 1.59% for bull markets but -1.29% for bear markets. These evidences support the hypothesis that investors are rewarded for betting on individual stocks during bull markets and holding more diversified portfolios during bear markets. The second essay examines the role of the limits to arbitrage in the negative effect of liquidity on subsequent stock returns. I hypothesize that if the negative effect persists because of the limits to arbitrage, the effect should be more pronounced when there are more severe limits to arbitrage. My empirical evidence supports the hypothesis. In addition, I find that the effect of the limits to arbitrage on the liquidity anomaly is not correlated to the liquidity risk.

Download or read book Two essays on idiosyncratic volatility written by Adam Smedema and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Two Essays on Extreme Downside Risk in Financial Markets written by Feng Wu and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Part I of this dissertation, I propose a measure for the extreme downside risk (EDR) to investigate whether bearing such a risk can be rewarded by higher expected stock returns. By constructing an EDR measure with the left tail index in the classical generalized extreme value distribution, I find a significant positive premium on firm-specific EDR in cross-section of stock returns even after I control for size, value, return reversal, momentum, and liquidity factors. EDR serves as a good indicator of extreme market plunges. High-EDR stocks generally exhibit high idiosyncratic volatility, large value-at-risk, large negative co-skewness, and high bankruptcy risk. I also controlled for these characteristics to find that the EDR premium remains robust. Furthermore, the EDR effect exhibits long-run persistence and is not subsumed by business cycles. In Part II, I apply the concept of extreme downside risk to a policy-related issue: In August 1991, NASDAQ introduced a controversial SI minimum bid price threshold as part of its listing maintenance criteria (the dollar delisting rule or one-dollar rule). This part empirically evaluates this rule through an extreme value approach. Utilizing the Generalized Extreme Value distribution model to capture extreme price plummets, I find NASDAQ stocks frequently trading below S1 in the pre-rule period are extremely vulnerable to catastrophic losses. The implementation of the one-dollar rule effectively curbs the extreme downside price movements, which helps to protect investors' interest, uphold their faith in the exchange, and improve the credibility of the market. Such a pattern is prevalent across all industries and is not affected by market movements. The S1 benchmark serves as an appropriate cutoff point in screening the issues listed on the exchange. The minimum price continued listing standard on NASDAQ is justified and has proved to be successful.

Download or read book Three Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing written by Gang Li and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation contains three essays on empirical asset pricing. In the first essay, I study the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns of risky assets. I find that when the true asset pricing model cannot be identified, the idiosyncratic volatility obtained from a misspecified model contains information regarding the hedge portfolio in Merton's (1973) ICAPM. Empirically, I find that from 1815 to 2018, a combination of equal-weighted idiosyncratic volatility (EWIV) and value-weighted idiosyncratic volatility (VWIV) can strongly forecast stock market returns over short- and long-term horizons. Furthermore, EWIV and VWIV jointly can explain the cross-section of average stock returns. I show that the combination of EWIV and VWIV is a proxy for the conditional covariance risk in the ICAPM. The deduction also provides new insights concerning the tail risk measure proposed by Kelly and Jiang (2014). The second essay is a joint work with Bing Han. We propose a new and robust predictor of stock market returns and real economic activities based on information from equity options. We aggregate the difference in implied volatilities of at-the-money call and put options across stocks and find that the aggregate implied volatility spread (IVS) is significantly and positively related to future stock market returns. We attribute the predictive power to common informed trading in equity options instead of time-varying risk premium. The third essay, coauthored with Yoontae Jeon and Raymond Kan, studies the expected option return under an extended Black-Scholes model that incorporates the presence of stock return autocorrelation. We show that expected returns of both call and put options are increasing functions of return autocorrelation coefficient of the underlying stock. We find strong empirical evidence from the cross-section of average returns of equity options to support this prediction. Average returns of calls and puts as well as straddle returns all show monotonically increasing relationship with the degree of underlying stock's return autocorrelation coefficient. We also examine how the information on stock return autocorrelation helps investors to improve the out-of-sample performance of their portfolios.

Download or read book Two Essays on the Cross section of Stock Returns written by Peter Wong and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies two distinct topics. First, I examine whether the idiosyncratic volatility discount anomaly documented by Ang, Hodrick, Xing, and Zhang (2006, 2009) is related to earnings shocks, and I find that a substantial portion of the idiosyncratic volatility discount can be explained by earnings momentum and post-formation earnings shocks. When these two effects are accounted for, idiosyncratic volatility has little, if any, return predictability. Second, I propose a parsimonious measure to characterize the severity of the microstructure noise at the individual stock level and assess the impact of this microstructure induced illiquidity on cross-sectional return predictability. One of the main advantages of this measure is that it is very simple to construct (requires only daily stock returns data). Using this measure I find that firms with the largest microstructure bias command a return premium as large as 9.61% per year, even after controlling for the premiums associated with size, book-to-market, momentum, and traditional liquidity price impact and cost measures. In addition, the bias premium is strongest among small, low price, volatile, and illiquid stocks. On the other hand, the premiums associated with size, illiquidity, and return reversal are most pronounced among stocks with the largest bias.

Download or read book Three Essays on Capital Market with Incomplete and Asymmetric Information written by Chaoli Guo and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Three Essays on Capital Market With Incomplete and Asymmetric Information" by Chaoli, Guo, 郭朝莉, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: This thesis includes one essay on incomplete information and two essays on the capital market implications of asymmetric information. The acquisition of information and its dissemination to all economic units are central activities in capital markets. Limits to information diffusion may exist when market participants have limited processing ability or when market structure causes information asymmetry to persist. Merton (1987) proposes a simple capital market equilibrium model with incomplete information, in which difference in a stock's investor recognition affects its cost of capital. Myers and Majluf (1984) lay out the theoretical foundation for the role of asymmetric information in corporate finance and its capital market implications. The first essay tests and offers support to Merton's (1987) theory. In the U.S. market, using the breadth of ownership among retail investors as a proxy for investor recognition, I show that a long-short portfolio based on the annual change of shareholder base earns a compounded annual abnormal return of 6.42% after controlling for the Fama-French three factors. These results are more pronounced among young, low visibility and high idiosyncratic volatility stocks. Moreover, I present evidence that the investor recognition effect can explain approximately 20% of the puzzling net equity issuance effect documented by Pontiff and Woodgate (2008). The second essay suggests a novel signaling mechanism in the framework of asymmetric information. When a firm's convertible debt is issued, it is not only determined by the fundamentals of the firm such as past stock performance, but also related to whether this performance is realized during the tenure of current CEO who decides the issues. I define the performance that the current CEO achieves in the firm ever since the CEO comes to the helm as CEO-specific performance. Higher CEOspecific performance leads to (1) a higher probability of convertible issues, and (2) a less negative abnormal stock return in response to the convertible issue announcement, controlling for other firm characteristics. These evidences indicate that CEO-specific performance serves as a credible information signal to influence the adverse selection costs between the firm and outside investors in convertible bond financing. The third essay explores the possibility of asymmetric information in explaining the pronounced share issue anomaly in the cross-sectional variations of stock returns, as documented by Pontiff and Woodgate (2008). A lot of equity share issue and repurchase actions are actively determined by the decision of corporate stakeholders, such as employees at the stock options exercises. As these stakeholders hold a large amount of private information about the firm, it is in their optimal decisions to try to time the exercise of their share purchase activity, but outside investors are likely to fail to interpret the information revealed from these actions. I present strong evidence that a negative relation between share issues and stock returns is affected to a greater extent when the information asymmetry problem is more severe. DOI: 10.5353/

Download or read book Idiosyncratic Equity Risk Two Decades Later written by John Y. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on idiosyncratic equity volatility since the publication of "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk" in 2001. We respond to replication studies by Chiah, Gharghori, and Zhong and by Leippold and Svaton, and we present volatility estimates through the end of 2021, significantly extending the period covered in our original paper as well as the two replication studies. After spiking in the 1999- 2000 period, idiosyncratic volatility declined thereafter; but sharp increases in market, industry, and idiosyncratic volatility occurred during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020-2021. We argue that market microstructure effects are not of first-order importance for volatility measurement, and we discuss the roles of fundamental factors and investor sentiment in driving the observed fluctuations in volatility.

Download or read book Earnings Idiosyncratic Volatility and Costs of Capital written by Sana Mohsni and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Firm specific Volatility written by Maria Gabriela Schutte and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The central objective of my dissertation is to study the behavior of firm-specific volatility in countries around the world. Consistent with existing literature, I use firm-specific volatility to measure two important concepts: the information content of stocks and firm-specific risk. In Chapter One I hypothesize that the institutional environment in a country has direct consequences on firm-specific risk. A stronger institutional environment results in higher product market competition, higher firm turnover, and higher rates of technological innovation. Consistent with my predictions, I find that creative destruction explains a significant proportion of the cross-sectional differences in firm specific volatility in 40 countries. In Chapter Two I look at the cyclical fluctuations of comovement in the US and 27 other countries during the period 1980-2005. I find that, in general, comovement tends to be countercyclical. Additionally, I find wide cross-sectional variation in the strength of association between comovement and the business cycle. This strength of association positively correlates to a measure of variability in information production. In turn, I find that the information environment can reduce variability in information production and reduce cyclical fluctuations in stock return correlations. Finally, in Chapter I find that idiosyncratic risk has explanatory power on the cross-section of expected returns in international markets. I find strong support to the theory in all countries under study. In eight of the fifteen countries surveyed the relation is significantly positive while in the remaining seven countries the relation is zero. In no instance do I find the relation to be negative. In addition, the results from my analysis are economically significant. I find that after controlling for stock characteristics (beta, size, and momentum) the response in excess returns to a 1% increase in monthly-expected idiosyncratic risk ranges across countries between zero and one half of a percent.

Download or read book Two Essays on Investment written by Bin Wang and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first essay titled "Shareholder Coordination, Information Diffusion and Stock Returns", we show that the quality of information sharing networks linking firms' institutional investors has stock return predictability implications. First, we demonstrate that firms with high shareholder coordination experience less local comovement and less post earnings announcement drift, consistent with the notion that coordination improves firms' information environment. We then document that the stock return performance of firms with high shareholder coordination leads that of firms with low shareholder coordination, supporting the view that coordination acts as an information diffusion channel. Finally, we provide evidence consistent with the notion that the market does not readily recognize the superior quality of high shareholder coordination firms and prices it gradually through the trading of sophisticated institutional investors, thereby causing future returns to be positively associated with shareholder coordination. In the second essay titled "Shareholder Coordination and Stock Price Informativeness", we find that stock prices of firms with better information sharing networks linking institutional shareholders exhibit higher levels of idiosyncratic volatility. This positive relation between shareholder coordination and stock price informativeness is mainly driven by coordination among dedicated and independent institutions and exists even after accounting for endogeneity. We further show that institutional trading serves as an information diffusion channel that strengthens the relationship of shareholder coordination with price informativeness. Overall, our results indicate that a higher degree of shareholder coordination leads to more informative stock prices by encouraging the collection of and trading on private information.

Download or read book Three Essays in Theoretical and Empirical Derivative Pricing written by Ali Boloorforoosh and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: