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Book Time Series Analysis Forecasts for Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus Nerka in the Egegik Naknek and Kvichak Rivers of Bristol Bay Alaska

Download or read book Time Series Analysis Forecasts for Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus Nerka in the Egegik Naknek and Kvichak Rivers of Bristol Bay Alaska written by Edward Vincent Farley (Jr.) and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Alaska Fishery Research Bulletin

Download or read book Alaska Fishery Research Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book A Synopsis and Critique of Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon Returning to Bristol Bay Alaska in 1990

Download or read book A Synopsis and Critique of Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon Returning to Bristol Bay Alaska in 1990 written by Stephen M. Fried and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The total number of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) forecasted to return to Bristol Bay in 1990 is 26,724,000 ( 80% confidence interval: 16,365,000 43,641,000). Runs are expected to exceed spawning escapement goals for all systems. Total projected sockeye salmon harvest is expected to be 15,989,000 (80% CI: 7,630,000 - 28,906,000). Most of this harvest will be taken within Bristol Bay inshore fishing districts (14,662,000), but some has been allocated to fisheries occurring in June in the vicinity of the Shumagin Islands and South Unimak under an existing management plan (8.3% of total Bristol Bay projected harvest: 1,327,000). The 1990 forecast was based on the ADF&G method which averaged results from three linear regression models based on the relationship between returns and either spawner, sibling, or smelt data. Based on the expected performance of several modifications of the ADF&G method, all available data was used to forecast 1990 runs to Nushagak and Togiak Districts, but data prior to the 1978 return year was omitted from calculations for Naknek-Kvichak, Egegik and Ugashik Districts. Al though out of range data were not used in calculations, their occurrence suggested that age-2.3 predictions for Kvichak, Egegik, and Ugashik Rivers could be too low. This could place the actual total return within the upper range of the 80% CI. The outlook for 1991-1993, based only on the spawner-recruit component of the ADF&G method, is for the total sockeye salmon run to Bristol Bay to be greatest in 1990 and least in 1991, mostly due to variations in the Kvichak River run. For all years examined, runs to all river systems are expected to exceed spawning goal requirements.

Book A Synopsis and Critique of Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus Nerka Returning to Bristol Bay Alaska in 1987

Download or read book A Synopsis and Critique of Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus Nerka Returning to Bristol Bay Alaska in 1987 written by Stephen M. Fried and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a final preseason forecast for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) returns to Bristol Bay, Alaska, in 1987, and a long range outlook of returns through 1990.

Book 1968 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Smolt Studies

Download or read book 1968 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Smolt Studies written by Alaska. Division of Commercial Fisheries and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Synopsis and Critique of the Available Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon oncorhynchus Nerka Returning to Bristol Bay in 1984

Download or read book Synopsis and Critique of the Available Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon oncorhynchus Nerka Returning to Bristol Bay in 1984 written by Douglas Murrell Eggers and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Use of Air and Water Temperatures to Forecast Kvichak River Sockeye Salmon Returns from Smolt Migration Estimates

Download or read book Use of Air and Water Temperatures to Forecast Kvichak River Sockeye Salmon Returns from Smolt Migration Estimates written by Henry J. Yuen and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book 1977 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Smolt Studies

Download or read book 1977 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Smolt Studies written by Alaska. Division of Commercial Fisheries. Research Section and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book A Synopsis and Critique of Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus Nerka Returning to Bristol Bay in 1986

Download or read book A Synopsis and Critique of Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus Nerka Returning to Bristol Bay in 1986 written by Stephen M.. Fried and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Inseason Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon Returns to the Bristol Bay Districts of Alaska

Download or read book Inseason Forecasts of Sockeye Salmon Returns to the Bristol Bay Districts of Alaska written by Saang-Yoon Hyun and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery has been the most valuable salmon fishery in North America, and provides season employment for several thousand workers. The fishery consists of five reasonably discrete fishing districts corresponding to watersheds where the salmon are returning to spawn. The long term objective of management is to achieve Maximum Sustained Yield from the fishery, and this is implemented on an annual basis by regulating the time allowed for fishing to allow a predetermined number of fish to pass the fishery and make it to their natal streams and lakes to spawn. The expected total return of fish to each district is an important part of the fishery management and is equally important to the fishing fleet and the fish processors. I developed a statistical model for inseason run size prediction that uses data from (1) a test fishery at Pt. Moller, (2) the age composition of the catch at Pt. Moller, (3) the total return to date by district and (4) the age composition of the return to each district. Optimization and Bayesian methods are used to obtain both point estimates and distributions of estimates. I found that the temporal pattern in catches at Pt. Moller explained 59% of the variation in run timing in the fishing districts. Using the preseason forecast as a prior significantly improved the performance of the estimation during the initial stage of the season. This method provides a consistent way to incorporate diverse forms of data in a single unified statistical framework that should provide a significant improvement in inseason run forecasting. The method was tested using data from 1999 and found to perform well. In terms of the absolute values of relative errors of forecasts of the returns to the main districts (Kvichak-Naknek, Egegik, and Nushagak) made on June 24, June 29, and July 4, the mean values were 86.7%, 72.4%, and 59.9% when preseason forecasts were not incorporated, whereas they were 27.6%,25.4%, and 20.9% when preseason forecasts were incorporated.