Download or read book Three Essays on Option implied Risk Measures and Equity Pricing written by Bo-Young Chang and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays in Asset Pricing written by Mehdi Karoui and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This thesis consists of three essays that explore alternative approaches to extracting information from option data, and, along somewhat different lines, examine the channels through which liquidity is priced in equity options.The first essay proposes a novel approach to extracting option-implied equity premia, and empirically examines the information content of these risk premia for forecasting the stock market return. Our approach does not require specifying the functional form of the pricing kernel, and does not impose any restrictions on investors' preferences. We only assume the existence of put and call options which complete the market, and show that the implied equity premium can be inferred from expected excess returns on a portfolio of options. An empirical investigation of S&P 500 index options yields the following conclusions: (i) the implied equity premium predicts stock market returns; (ii) the implied equity premium consistently outperforms variables commonly used in the forecasting literature both in- and out-of-sample; (iii) the implied equity premium is positively related to future returns and negatively related to current returns, as theoretically expected.The second essay studies the effect of illiquidity on equity option returns. Illiquidity is well-known to be a significant determinant of stock and bond returns. We are the first to report on illiquidity premia in equity option markets using a large cross-section of firms. An increase in option illiquidity decreases the current option price and predicts higher expected delta-hedged option returns. This effect is statistically and economically significant, and it is consistent with existing evidence that market makers in the equity options market hold net long positions. The illiquidity premium is robust across puts and calls, across maturities and moneyness, as well as across different empirical approaches. It is also robust when controlling for various firm-specific variables including a standard measure of illiquidity of the underlying stock. For long term options, we find evidence of a liquidity risk factor. In the third essay, we demonstrate that in multifactor asset pricing models, prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear functions of the market return can be readily obtained using data on index returns and index options. We apply this general result to the measurement of the conditional price of coskewness and cokurtosis risk. The price of coskewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral second moments, and the price of cokurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. Estimates of these prices of risk have the expected sign, and they lead to reasonable risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with coskewness and cokurtosis risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models. performance. The models also robustly outperform competitors such as the CAPM and the Fama-French model." --
Download or read book Three Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing written by Fei Fang and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation focuses on empirical asset pricing, including stock and options pricing. In the first and third chapter, we examine the linkage between stock market and options market at firm level. In Chapter Two, we documents the impact that systematic variance risk has for option prices of individual stocks. In the first chapter, we study the relation between future stock returns and option-based measures. We find that the options-based measure - future stock return relation is strongest for relatively less liquid stocks. After taking transaction costs into consideration, the risk-adjusted returns of the long-short stock portfolios do not differ significantly between stock liquidity groups. This chapter provides better understanding on the options-based stock return predictability. In the second chapter, we construct novel factors to mimic variance risk related to firm characteristics using individual stocks' variance risk premium. We then document that market variance risk premium and variance risk mimicking factors have strong explanatory power for option prices. Our new analytic framework links the variance risk factors related to firm characteristics to the individual equity option price structure. In the third chapter, we provide additional empirical results on how stock price can affect option prices. Our preliminary results reveal a link between the informational inefficiency of stock price and option prices. We find that a greater departure from random walk leads to a lower level of implied volatility (compared to realized volatility) and a steeper implied volatility curve.
Download or read book Three Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing written by Gang Li and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation contains three essays on empirical asset pricing. In the first essay, I study the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns of risky assets. I find that when the true asset pricing model cannot be identified, the idiosyncratic volatility obtained from a misspecified model contains information regarding the hedge portfolio in Merton's (1973) ICAPM. Empirically, I find that from 1815 to 2018, a combination of equal-weighted idiosyncratic volatility (EWIV) and value-weighted idiosyncratic volatility (VWIV) can strongly forecast stock market returns over short- and long-term horizons. Furthermore, EWIV and VWIV jointly can explain the cross-section of average stock returns. I show that the combination of EWIV and VWIV is a proxy for the conditional covariance risk in the ICAPM. The deduction also provides new insights concerning the tail risk measure proposed by Kelly and Jiang (2014). The second essay is a joint work with Bing Han. We propose a new and robust predictor of stock market returns and real economic activities based on information from equity options. We aggregate the difference in implied volatilities of at-the-money call and put options across stocks and find that the aggregate implied volatility spread (IVS) is significantly and positively related to future stock market returns. We attribute the predictive power to common informed trading in equity options instead of time-varying risk premium. The third essay, coauthored with Yoontae Jeon and Raymond Kan, studies the expected option return under an extended Black-Scholes model that incorporates the presence of stock return autocorrelation. We show that expected returns of both call and put options are increasing functions of return autocorrelation coefficient of the underlying stock. We find strong empirical evidence from the cross-section of average returns of equity options to support this prediction. Average returns of calls and puts as well as straddle returns all show monotonically increasing relationship with the degree of underlying stock's return autocorrelation coefficient. We also examine how the information on stock return autocorrelation helps investors to improve the out-of-sample performance of their portfolios.
Download or read book Buprestidae I written by and published by . This book was released on 1926 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing written by Stephen Szaura and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This thesis comprises three essays in empirical asset pricing. My first essay entitled "Are stock and corporate bond markets integrated? A Big Data Approach" I document the existence a growing Factor Zoo of discovered characteristics and factors that predict the cross-section of corporate bond returns and generate a significant high minus low portfolio alpha. I determine a higher statistical benchmark, by accounting for those characteristics and factors that have been discovered in published and working papers and find that in cross-sectional regressions and portfolio sorts of over a hundred characteristics and factors, on average 2.4% predict the cross-section of corporate bond returns when adjusting for higher benchmarks. A multivariate horse-race of all characteristics and factors in cross-sectional regressions finds a higher number of corporate bond, rather than stock, characteristics and factors that predict the cross-section of corporate bond returns when adjusting for higher benchmarks. In addition to the lower number of corporate bond characteristics and factors that predict the cross-section of stock returns, my results show that the stock and corporate bond markets are more segmented than previously documented.My second essay is based on a joint working paper entitled "Do Option Implied Measures of Stock Mispricing Find Investment Opportunities or Market Frictions" where we find that existing option implied stock mis-pricing measures, the portfolios identified as being the most mispriced (highest quintile), typically have the highest shorting fee. When those stocks are omitted, the average abnormal returns of the long-short stock portfolios are insignificant or greatly reduced in economic magnitude. We propose a new measure, IPD, using a novel intra-day options trades data set, circumvents this and does not require shorting hard to borrow firms.My third essay is based on a joint working paper entitled "Accounting Transparency and the Implied Volatility Skew". We show theoretically and empirically that firms with higher accounting transparency have an implied volatility smirk that is more sensitive to leverage (vice versa). The more clear the accounting information the more skewed the implied volatility smirk. Our theoretical predictions rely on extending the Duffie and Lando [2001] credit risk model to stock option pricing whereby incomplete accounting information and the risk of bankruptcy together act as an economic source of jump risk for stocks. Empirical tests confirm the theoretical predictions of the model and the model can be solved in closed form solution up to Bivariate Standard Normal Cumulative Distribution Function"--
Download or read book Essays on the Interaction of Option and Equity Markets written by Alexander Feser and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do option and equity markets interact with each other? This is the central question that is answered from three different angles in this dissertation. The first Chapter discusses how option-implied information is incorporated into equity markets. Based on a novel rescaled option-implied Value-at-Risk (rVaR) measure, it is shown that option-implied information is priced differently depending on whether it is based on options with strikes close to the current price of the underlying or far-out-of-the-money options. The findings provide novel insights in the joint interaction between option and equity markets and help to explain contradictory results in previous studies. The second chapter provides an in-depth analysis of how to estimate risk-neutral moments robustly. A simulation and an empirical study show that estimating risk-neutral moments presents a trade-off between (1) the bias of estimates caused by a limited strike price domain and (2) the variance of estimates induced by micro-structural noise. The best trade-off is offered by option-implied quantile moments estimated from a volatility surface interpolated with a local-linear kernel regression and extrapolated linearly. The third chapter expands volatility targeting to option strategies. The chapter shows that option trading strategies can be managed by increasing exposure if volatility is low and reducing exposure if volatility is high to achieve a constant risk exposure over time. These volatility controlled option strategies generate economically and statistically significant alphas over their unmanaged counterparts, have reduced maximum drawdowns, lower downside risk, and more normal return distributions.
Download or read book Three Essays in Theoretical and Empirical Derivative Pricing written by Ali Boloorforoosh and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing written by Alessio Alberto Saretto and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays in Theoretical and Empirical Derivative Pricing written by Hamed Ghanbari and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first essay investigates the option-implied investor preferences by comparing equilibrium option pricing models under jump-diffusion to option bounds extracted from discrete-time stochastic dominance (SD). We show that the bounds converge to two prices that define an interval comparable to the observed option bid-ask spreads for S&P 500 index options. Further, the bounds' implied distributions exhibit tail risk comparable to that of the return data and thus shed light on the dark matter of the divergence between option-implied and underlying tail risks. Moreover, the bounds can better accommodate reasonable values of the ex-dividend expected excess return than the equilibrium models' prices. We examine the relative risk aversion coefficients compatible with the boundary distributions extracted from index return data. We find that the SD-restricted range of admissible RRA values is consistent with the macro-finance studies of the equity premium puzzle and with several anomalous results that have appeared in earlier option market studies.The second essay examines theoretically and empirically a two-factor stochastic volatility model. We adopt an affine two-factor stochastic volatility model, where aggregate market volatility is decomposed into two independent factors; a persistent factor and a transient factor. We introduce a pricing kernel that links the physical and risk neutral distributions, where investor's equity risk preference is distinguished from her variance risk preference. Using simultaneous data from the S&P 500 index and options markets, we find a consistent set of parameters that characterizes the index dynamics under physical and risk-neutral distributions. We show that the proposed decomposition of variance factors can be characterized by a different persistence and different sensitivity of the variance factors to the volatility shocks. We obtain negative prices for both variance factors, implying that investors are willing to pay for insurance against increases in volatility risk, even if those increases have little persistence. We also obtain negative correlations between shocks to the market returns and each volatility factor, where correlation is less significant in transient factor and therefore has a less significant effect on the index skewness. Our empirical results indicate that unlike stochastic volatility model, join restrictions do not lead to the poor performance of two-factor SV model, measured by Vega-weighted root mean squared errors.In the third essay, we develop a closed-form equity option valuation model where equity returns are related to market returns with two distinct systematic components; one of which captures transient variations in returns and the other one captures persistent variations in returns. Our proposed factor structure and closed-form option pricing equations yield separate expressions for the exposure of equity options to both volatility components and overall market returns. These expressions allow a portfolio manager to hedge her portfolio's exposure to the underlying risk factors. In cross-sectional analysis our model predicts that firms with higher transient beta have a steeper term structure of implied volatility and a steeper implied volatility moneyness slope. Our model also predicts that variances risk premiums have more significant effect on the equity option skew when the transient beta is higher. On the empirical front, for the firms listed on the Dow Jones index, our model provides a good fit to the observed equity option prices.
Download or read book Three Essays in the Use of Option Pricing Theory written by Jeremy Joseph Evnine and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Essays on Option Market Information Content Market Segmentation and Fear written by Mishuk Anwar Chowdhury and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay tests whether stock returns can be predicted using divergence from put-call parity. Using a robust methodology that controls for the early exercise premium of American put and call options, the study shows that stocks with upside divergence from put-call parity outperform stocks with downside divergence from put-call parity. Predictability is persistent over multiple holding periods and divergence is also predictive of tail events. The second essay examines segmentation of equity and option markets in the presence of information asymmetry. The study uses the slope of the implied volatility skew as a proxy for negative jump risk, option implied stock price as a measure of deviation from put-call parity, and the daily short-sell volume ratio as a measure of negative information flow in the equity market. The option market based signals predict future returns more reliably than the short-sell based signals. Short-sellers only profit when their convictions line-up with negative signals in the option market. The third essay introduces a measure of fear derived from the implied volatility smile. The study examines the relationship between fear and the cross section of option returns. The results show that put options written on stocks with high fear premium outperform put options written on stocks with low fear premium. Fear does not predict the realization of a tail event. This finding confirms the irrational nature of fear.
Download or read book Three Essays on Option Implied Information written by Markus Ludwig and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dispersion of Option implied Risk Measures written by Iwan Lottenbach and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis at hand investigates the risk and predictive value of dispersions computed over option-implied risk measures of individual stocks. The option-implied risk measure calculation rests upon the risk-neutral arbitrage pricing theory and does not assume an underlying pricing model such as Black & Scholes (1973). The analysis relies on a large individual stock and option data panel based on the S&P 500 equity index with observations from January 2000 to December 2012. While Fama & McBeth (1973) regressions - based on 16 risk-neural volatility and skewness ranked portfolios - reveal no statistically significant risk premium for dispersions of option-implied risk measures, the latter factors have a remarkable predictive power for S&P 500 index returns in three months. A mean normalized standard deviation dispersion of risk-neutral volatility (skewness) thereby induces a monthly index return of approximately 13% (3%) in three month. The adjusted R2 of approximately 2% is, furthermore, a considerably good result for a predictive return model. The thesis at hand on dispersion of option-implied risk measures motivates some further research in this field, as the potential of forecasting index returns has gained confidence.
Download or read book Option Markets Return Predictability and Term Structure written by Yanhui Zhao and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three essays on eliciting information about underlying assets from the equity options markets, and improving our understanding of the term structure cost of equity. In the first essay, we find that high standard deviations of the volatility premium, of implied volatility innovations, and of the volatility term structure spread in equity options predict low underlying returns. This return predictability is not explained by the levels of these three variables, or by volatility of volatility, other known firm characteristics, or common risk factor models. We find support for interpreting the standard deviations of these option-based measures as forward-looking proxies of heterogeneous beliefs. In the second essay, we find that stocks with high risk-neutral skewness (RNS) exhibit abnormal performance driven by rebounds following poor performance. This behavior connects it to momentum crashes caused by reversal in past losers. In periods of post-recession rebounds and high market volatility when momentum crashes occur, a zero-investment high-low RNS portfolio has significant positive abnormal returns. The momentum anomaly is strongest (weakest) in stocks with the lowest (highest) RNS, consistent with the positive relationship of RNS to momentum crashes. These results hold controlling for trading frictions, other firm characteristics, and risk factors. We generalize our findings to all stocks by constructing an RNS factor-mimicking portfolio SKEW and find that a WML strategy that avoids high SKEW beta stocks has superior performance to the baseline and risk-managed WML strategies. In the third essay, we estimate the cost of equity capital term structure for the insurance industry as a whole, and several insurance sectors such as life/health and property/casualty. We use a vector autoregressive process to jointly model the dynamics of expected cash flows, beta, and the market risk premium. We obtain a closed form solution for the discount rate appropriate for each maturity. Our empirical analysis shows that for the insurance industry, the cost of equity based on our term structure model is on average nearly 299.6 basis points higher compared to the single period CAPM. This means that these insurers might overly invest if they rely on the single period CAPM.
Download or read book Essays in Volatility Modeling and Option Pricing written by Mathieu Fournier and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Three Essays on Variance Risk and Correlation Risk written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
