Download or read book Three Essays on Modeling Risk in Fed Cattle Production written by Eric Joseph Belasco and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Keywords: bayesian, yields, multivariate, livestock, censored.

Download or read book Three Essays on Modeling Risk in Fed Cattle Production written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines issues that arise when modeling risk associated with fed cattle production. While research concerning crop yield and revenue risks are numerous, studies focusing on production risk in livestock are much less frequent. The first essay evaluates the relationship among four variables associated with the health and performance of feedlot cattle, and the resulting production and profit risk. The four variables of interest include feed conversion rates, average daily gain, veterinary costs, and mortality rates, which are conditional on characteristics that are known when the pen is placed into a commercial feedlot. Conditional variables include gender, average weight, feedlot location, and season of placement. A multivariate Tobit model is used to characterize the relationship among the four dependent variables, where each element in the covariance matrix is conditional on placement characteristics. The second essay focuses on modeling cattle mortality rates, alone and as part of a system. A zero-inflated log-normal distribution is developed and shown to have advantages in model fit and prediction tests with this data set, relative to classical methods. A simulated data set is also utilized to assess the potential bias from assuming a Tobit model when the data are more accurately characterized through a mixture model. The third essay quantifies the amount of risk inherent in cattle feedlot operations through the use of simulation techniques. More specifically, extit[ex-ante] profit risks are evaluated under scenarios that utilize varying levels of price protection through the use of forward contracts and the options market.

Download or read book Essays on Fed Cattle Production and Net Return Risk Using Stochastic Simulation written by Kaitlyn Maree Dinges Weber and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chapter 1: Cattle Feeding Net Returns Simulation: A Confirmation Exercise. There is great variability in cattle feeding net returns across the industry due to varying economic risk levels dependent on a multitude of cattle characteristics and attributes. There are very few simulation studies that evaluate the deterministic and stochastic influence of performance and price metric relationship between such inputs and the resulting expected net return distribution. One such study is by Dennis et al. (2018), where the authors evaluated the impact of alternative animal health treatment strategies on net returns. The objective of this study is to replicate the results from Dennis et al.'s net return simulation and approximately verify such results utilizing the KSU - Beef Farm Management Guide Spreadsheet. Utilizing the equations, deterministic and stochastic inputs, and simulated distributions in Dennis et al.'s publication, results indicated that the difference between high-risk and metaphylaxis treated cattle averaged $23.77 higher across all weight categories compared to the original publication. One glaring difference between the results for the return simulation duplication and the original results is the shift of distributions rightward along the x-axis, which represents the net returns per head in dollars per head. The KSU Beef Finishing Budget calculated net return differs from the simulation distributional mean value by as little as $11.09 per head, up to the largest difference of $93.40 per head, with three key factors accounting for much of the differences-mortality, feeding cost, and total revenue. We were able to successfully replicate the study by Dennis et al. (2018) and identify what we believe to be the key difference-the feeder cattle purchase price-between the published study and the duplication attempt, while also comparing expected net returns utilizing the KSU Beef Finishing Budget and determine the calculations attributing to the differences. Chapter 2: Net Return Distributions Across Different Pricing Mechanisms in Fed Cattle Production. The cattle feeding industry has a lengthy history of being one of the most variable agricultural sectors concerning profitability (Tonsor, 2022). Price risk, production risk, and quality risk in the fed cattle industry all contribute to this profit variability of cattle placed on feed. While other studies have estimated cattle feeding net return models, this study explicitly considers the mortality rate, performance, quality, and expected net return difference between low health-risk cattle and high health-risk cattle that have been treated with metaphylaxis placed on feed using a stochastic simulation net returns framework that evaluates both live weight and grid pricing revenue methods. The results demonstrate that pen characteristics, such as entry weight, gender, and risk classification influence the mean and variability of production factors, defined as mortality, average daily gain, average feed conversion, and veterinary cost per head. The better we can predict animal health and quantify the uncertainty between low health-risk and high health-risk cattle, the more informed cattle feeders become regarding the profit variability between the two classifications of cattle given live weight and grid pricing. Due to higher transaction prices associated with healthier animals that generally have lower probabilities of morbidity and mortality, there is an incentive to buy higher health-risk cattle at a lower cost. Results further inform industry stakeholders by quantifying the price discount that high health-risk cattle must be purchased at relative to low health-risk cattle to achieve the same breakeven profit. Chapter 3: Evaluation of Bovine Respiratory Disease Morbidity in the Feedlot and its Effect on Net Return Distributions. Costs associated with morbidity are one of the most important determinants of profitability in the feedlot (Gardner et al., 1999). Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is responsible for a large portion, approximately 75%, of feedlot morbidity and 50-80% of feedlot deaths (Edwards, 1996; Kelly & Janzen, 1986). This study models the impact of the percentage of a pen of cattle individually treated one time, two times, or three or more times for BRD on mortality, performance, and overall expected net returns per head by parameterizing production and profitability risks associated with BRD morbidity in the feedlot. This research adapts a fed cattle net returns model (Belasco et al., 2009; Dennis et al., 2018, 2020) to capture varying mortality rates and stochastic performance metrics-average daily gain, average feed conversion, and veterinary cost per head-as a function of BRD morbidity to model overall fed cattle net return risk. Results indicate that mean net returns per pen decrease as the overall percentage of animals treated within the pen increases. This is driven by a combination of things, including but not limited to, decreased animal performance due to BRD-related sickness, increased veterinary cost per head, and increased mean and standard deviation of the mortality distribution as morbidity increases.

Download or read book Essays on Beef Cattle Economics written by Melissa Gale Short McKendree and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. beef industry is comprised of multiple, vertically connected segments. Beginning at the cow-calf level, cattle move through the industry to backgrounding/stocker operations, feedlots, and then to beef packers. The beef produced then continues to move through the marketing channel from beef packers to wholesalers and on to multiple final consumer outlets. Each level of the beef industry has both distinct and related economic issues. This dissertation contains three essays on beef cattle economics. Essay 1 focuses on price and animal health risk management at the feedlot level. Essays 2 and 3 explore how upstream demand changes impact primary beef suppliers. The objective of Essay 1 is to determine if feedlot operators manage price risk and animal health risk as two separate and independent risks or if they manage them jointly. The animal health attribute of interest is purchasing feeder steers from a single known source versus an auction with unknown background. The output price risk mitigation tools are futures contracts, forward contracts, other, and accept cash price at time of sale. Primary data is collected using an online survey administered to feedlot operators. Participants are placed in forward looking, decision making scenarios utilizing a split-sample block design. Evidence of a relationship between animal health risk and output price risk management is mixed. Ricardian rent theory (RRT) is tested in Essay 2 to determine if complete pass-through occurs from fed cattle and corn prices to feeder cattle prices. Monthly price data from December 1995 to December 2016 is used. Based on RRT, surplus rents should pass through the market to the holder of the scarcest resource. In cattle markets, feeder calves are the scarcest, widely traded resource and thus gains and losses at the feedlot theoretically pass-through to feeder cattle prices. The hypothesized pass-through rates suggested by RRT is calculated using monthly production data from the Focus on Feedlots data series. The regression pass-through estimates are tested against the hypothesized RRT pass-through. In many models, the estimated pass-through rate is statistically greater than the RRT hypothesized pass-through rate. Thus, when fed cattle or corn prices change, these changes are more than fully passed to cow-calf producers through the feeder cattle price. Evidence is found of asymmetric pass-through during times of herd expansion versus contraction. Essay 3 provides a quantification of how changes in retail and export beef demand are transmitted to different members of the beef industry. Understanding how information is transmitted from primary consumer demand through the supply chain is key for long-term prosperity of the U.S. cattle industry. However, empirical applications quantifying how demand signals are transmitted through vertically connected industries are limited. Using both naïve and forward looking price expectations, a four equation system of inverse demand and supply equations for live and feeder cattle is estimated. Using retail and export beef demand indices, the impacts of 1% change in retail or export demand on live cattle and feeder cattle prices are quantified.

Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays in Livestock Risk Management microform written by Hall, David Clement and published by Ann Arbor, Mich. : University Microfilms International. This book was released on 2001 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays in Livestock Risk Management written by David Clement Hall and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Multivariate Evaluation of Ex Ante Risks Associated with Fed Cattle Production written by Eric Belasco and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate production risks faced by fed cattle producers. We do this by jointly modeling a group of cattle production yield risk factors using a multivariate dynamic regression model. The proposed econometric model estimates parameters that influence the mean and variance of production yield factors, as well as the covariance between variables, while accounting for a high degree of censoring through the use of a dynamic multivariate Tobit model. The model provides insights into the relationship between production yield factors in fed cattle production.

Download or read book Three Essays on Livestock Biosecurity and Traceability written by James L. Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chapter 1: The Effects of Production Contracts on Biosecurity Adoption by United States Hog Producers. Production contracts play an important role in U.S. livestock production. As their use has grown, so has the need to understand their influence on production practices. Understanding the link between production contracts and health management practices, for example, is crucial to policies and analysis of the preparation for, and potential consequences of larger scale animal disease outbreaks in the United States. The benefits and costs, as well as tolerance for disease risks, are likely different among independent producers and operations utilizing some form of production contracts. Using results from a 2017 survey of U.S. hog producers, we estimate the effects of production contract use on adoption of enhanced biosecurity practices. The main result of this chapter is that contracting producers are more likely to adopt biosecurity. We find evidence that the effect of production contracts is heterogeneous across enterprise types. Chapter 2: The Market for Traceability with Applications to U.S. Feeder Cattle. For voluntary traceability programs, a key interest for program designers and policymakers is how to encourage participation. We contend that participating in voluntary traceability can be viewed as a product characteristic, and thus serves as a source of product differentiation. We study the implicit market for traceability systems for the first known time. In our empirical example, we use stated choice experiments to link feeder cattle sellers and buyers through premiums and discounts for cattle traceability systems. Using results from discrete choice models, we simulate changes in traceability supply and demand in response to prices and policies. We find that cost-share policies might be an effective way of encouraging participation for feeder cattle sellers and could serve as an alternative to mandating traceability. Chapter 3: Cow-Calf Producer Willingness to Report Disease: A Test of Adverse Selection. Animal health agencies' efforts to prevent and control foreign animal disease outbreaks depend on, among other factors, timely livestock producer self-reporting of disease suspicions. Adverse selection applies to disease reporting because livestock producers have private information about their disease status. Policymakers want to know how to set policy variables such that producers reveal private information about disease status, early, before the disease spreads. In this chapter, we study the effects of disease prevalence and indemnity payments on cow-calf producer willingness to report foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) suspicions. A novel test of adverse selection arises because we can determine how the rate of disease reporting adjusts to policy variables evaluated at different disease prevalence rates. Producers that report FMD suspicions do so early such that the effects of policy variables diminish at high prevalence rates.

Download or read book A Multivariate Evaluation Ofex Anterisks Associated with Fed Cattle Production written by Eric Belasco and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate production risks faced by fed cattle producers. We do this by jointly modeling a group of cattle production yield risk factors using a multivariate dynamic regression model. The proposed econometric model estimates parameters that influence the mean and variance of production yield factors, as well as the covariance between variables, while accounting for a high degree of censoring through the use of a dynamic multivariate Tobit model. The model provides insights into the relationship between production yield factors in fed cattle production.

Download or read book Economic Models Estimation and Risk Programming Essays in Honor of Gerhard Tintner written by K. A. Fox and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These essays in honor of Professor Gerhard Tintner are substantive contributions to three areas of econometrics, (1) economic models and applications,. (2) estimation, and (3) stochastic programming, in each of which he has labored with outstanding success. His own work has extended into multivariate analysis, the pure theory of decision-making under un certainty, and other fields which are not touched upon here for reasons of space and focus. Thus, this collection is appropriate to his interests but covers much less than their full range. Professor Tintner's contributions to econometrics through teaching, writing, editing, lecturing and consulting have been varied and inter national. We have tried to highlight them in "The Econometric Work of Gerhard Tintner" and to place them in historical perspective in "The Invisible Revolution in Economics: Emergence of a Mathematical Science. " Professor Tintner's career to date has spanned the organizational life of the Econometric Society and his contributions have been nearly coextensive with its scope. His principal books and articles up to 1968 are listed in the "Selected Bibliography. " Professor Tintner's current research involves the intricate problems of specification and application of stochastic processes to economic systems, particularly to growth, diffusion of technology, and optimal control. As always, he is moving with the econometric frontier and a portion of the frontier is moving with him. IV Two of the editors wrote dissertations under Professor Tintner's sup- vision; the third knew him as a colleague and friend.

Download or read book Comprehensive Dissertation Index written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 978 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Nutrient Management Risk in Livestock Production written by Joleen Christine Hadrich and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book American Doctoral Dissertations written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 776 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book O S U Theses and Dissertations 1978 1982 written by Oregon State University and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

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