Download or read book Thinking Probabilistically written by Ariel Amir and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-12-17 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability theory has diverse applications in a plethora of fields, including physics, engineering, computer science, chemistry, biology and economics. This book will familiarize students with various applications of probability theory, stochastic modeling and random processes, using examples from all these disciplines and more. The reader learns via case studies and begins to recognize the sort of problems that are best tackled probabilistically. The emphasis is on conceptual understanding, the development of intuition and gaining insight, keeping technicalities to a minimum. Nevertheless, a glimpse into the depth of the topics is provided, preparing students for more specialized texts while assuming only an undergraduate-level background in mathematics. The wide range of areas covered - never before discussed together in a unified fashion – includes Markov processes and random walks, Langevin and Fokker–Planck equations, noise, generalized central limit theorem and extreme values statistics, random matrix theory and percolation theory.

Download or read book Thinking Probabilistically written by Ariel Amir and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-12-17 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introductory text providing the reader with a thorough background to the rich world of applications of stochastic processes.

Download or read book Probabilistic Thinking written by Egan J. Chernoff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 746 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides a necessary, current and extensive analysis of probabilistic thinking from a number of mathematicians, mathematics educators, and psychologists. The work of 58 contributing authors, investigating probabilistic thinking across the globe, is encapsulated in 6 prefaces, 29 chapters and 6 commentaries. Ultimately, the four main perspectives presented in this volume (Mathematics and Philosophy, Psychology, Stochastics and Mathematics Education) are designed to represent probabilistic thinking in a greater context.

Download or read book The Great Mental Models Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.

Download or read book Embracing Uncertainty The Revolutionary Science of Stress Free Living Through Probabilistic Thinking written by Gaurav Garg and published by Gaurav Garg. This book was released on 2024-08-22 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world obsessed with certainty, this book dares to embrace the unknown. "Dancing with Uncertainty" isn't just a catchy title—it's a revolutionary approach to navigating the complexities of modern life. Within these pages, you'll discover how to harness the power of probabilistic thinking to make better decisions, manage risks, and find opportunities where others see only chaos. From the boardroom to the bedroom, from financial investments to personal relationships, this book will transform the way you view the world. Key concepts you'll explore include: The Probabilistic Mindset: Learn to see life as a series of probabilities rather than absolutes. The 60/40 Rule: A practical guide to decision-making in uncertain situations. Expected Value Calculations: Maximize your 'life ROI' by understanding the true value of your choices. The Monte Carlo Method: Simulate multiple futures to prepare for any outcome. Bayesian Thinking: Update your beliefs intelligently as new information comes to light. But this isn't just a dry textbook. It's filled with real-life examples, practical exercises, and even a dash of humor. You'll learn from poker players, stock traders, meteorologists, and everyday people who've used probabilistic thinking to achieve extraordinary results. "In an uncertain world, the only mistake is to be unprepared. This book is your guide to turning uncertainty into your greatest advantage." Whether you're a CEO making high-stakes decisions, a student planning your future, or simply someone looking to navigate life with more confidence, "Dancing with Uncertainty" offers a new lens through which to view the world. So, are you ready to embrace the power of probability? To see opportunities where others see only risk? To dance with uncertainty and lead a richer, more calculated life? Open this book, and take your first step into a larger, more probabilistic world.

Download or read book The Yellow Pad written by Robert E. Rubin and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2023-05-16 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robert Rubin, former secretary of the Treasury and co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, shares thoughts on decision-making developed over more than six decades in markets, business, government, and politics, and offers readers an astute and original guide for navigating uncertain times In 1958, as a college sophomore, Robert Rubin took a class that changed his life. The class was introduction to philosophy, and the professor, Raphael Demos, instilled in his students an idea that was simple yet profound: There is no such thing as certainty. For Rubin, this led to a critically important question: How can we make sound decisions in a fundamentally uncertain world? While serving in some of the most significant roles in markets, business, and government, Rubin has grappled with that question. Time and again, when faced with a high-stakes decision, he turned to his most trusted tool: a simple yellow legal pad. Rubin’s yellow pad (or more recently, his iPad) became an expression of a larger decision-making philosophy that has both lasted and shaped a lifetime. In The Yellow Pad, Rubin lays out that philosophy with depth and detail, and presents a compelling intellectual framework for confronting some of the most difficult issues we face today. The Yellow Pad contains a former Treasury secretary’s approach to economic policymaking. A former Goldman Sachs senior partner’s approach to personal investing and understanding risk. A former director of the National Economic Council’s approach to managing people in both private- and public-sector organizations. And much more. Yet despite his lifetime of experiences, Rubin remains refreshingly open-minded, interested in exploring ideas rather than promoting ideologies. With its combination of wisdom and relevance, The Yellow Pad is an essential guide for anyone looking to make better decisions in life, work, and public policy.

Download or read book HBR Guide to Critical Thinking written by Harvard Business Review and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2023-01-31 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tackle complex situations with critical thinking. You're facing a problem at work. There are many ways you can approach the situation, but each comes with its own pros and cons. How do you sort through all the information so that you know you're taking the right path? The answer is in how you think. The HBR Guide to Critical Thinking will help you navigate your most challenging issues, from difficult problems to tough decisions to complex scenarios. By carefully observing the situation, gathering information, inviting other perspectives, and analyzing what's in front of you, you can move forward with confidence while building this crucial leadership skill. You'll learn how to: Question your assumptions Keep an open mind to opposing viewpoints Sidestep cognitive biases Use data—when appropriate Grow comfortable with ambiguity Find innovative and creative solutions Arm yourself with the advice you need to succeed on the job, with the most trusted brand in business. Packed with how-to essentials from leading experts, the HBR Guides provide smart answers to your most pressing work challenges.

Download or read book Cognition and Chance written by Raymond S. Nickerson and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004-06-24 with total page 798 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

Download or read book The Science of Reason written by Ken Manktelow and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2010-10-18 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is a state-of-the-art survey of the psychology of reasoning, based around, and in tribute to, one of the field’s most eminent figures: Jonathan St B.T. Evans. In this collection of cutting edge research, Evans’ collaborators and colleagues review a wide range of important and developing areas of inquiry. These include biases in thinking, probabilistic and causal reasoning, people’s use of ‘if’ sentences in arguments, the dual-process theory of thought, and the nature of human rationality. These foundational issues are examined from various angles and finally integrated in a concluding panoramic chapter written by Evans himself. The eighteen chapters, all written by leading international researchers, combine state-of the-art research with investigation into the most fundamental questions surrounding human mental life, such as: What is the architecture of the human mind? Are humans rational, and what is the nature of this rationality? How do we think hypothetically? The Science of Reason offers a unique combination of breadth, depth and integrative vision, making it an indispensable resource for researchers and students of human reason.

Download or read book An Economist Walks into a Brothel written by Allison Schrager and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2019-04-02 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Financial Times Book of the Month pick for April! Is it worth swimming in shark-infested waters to surf a 50-foot, career-record wave? Is it riskier to make an action movie or a horror movie? Should sex workers forfeit 50 percent of their income for added security or take a chance and keep the extra money? Most people wouldn't expect an economist to have an answer to these questions--or to other questions of daily life, such as who to date or how early to leave for the airport. But those people haven't met Allison Schrager, an economist and award-winning journalist who has spent her career examining how people manage risk in their lives and careers. Whether we realize it or not, we all take risks large and small every day. Even the most cautious among us cannot opt out--the question is always which risks to take, not whether to take them at all. What most of us don't know is how to measure those risks and maximize the chances of getting what we want out of life. In An Economist Walks into a Brothel, Schrager equips readers with five principles for dealing with risk, principles used by some of the world's most interesting risk takers. For instance, she interviews a professional poker player about how to stay rational when the stakes are high, a paparazzo in Manhattan about how to spot different kinds of risk, horse breeders in Kentucky about how to diversify risk and minimize losses, and a war general who led troops in Iraq about how to prepare for what we don't see coming. When you start to look at risky decisions through Schrager's new framework, you can increase the upside to any situation and better mitigate the downside.

Download or read book Trend Following Masters Volume 2 written by Michael Covel and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2023-09-19 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Michael Covel’s Trend Following podcast has delivered millions of listens across 80+ countries for over a decade. On the podcast, Michael invites you to take a seat next to him as he interviews the world’s top experts in investor psychology. Encouraged by Michael’s skilled and knowledgeable questions, legendary guests reveal the best of their wisdom, guidance, and ideas to help you manage your trading mindset. It is the ultimate mentorship circle serving one goal: To give everyone the chance to learn how to profit in the markets. This second volume of Trend Following Masters features Michael’s conversations with great psychologists and behavioral scientists, including: Annie Duke, Alexander Elder, Van Tharp, Denise Shull, Daniel Crosby, Daniel Kahneman, Charles Faulkner, Gerd Gigerenzer, Brett Steenbarger, Philip Tetlock, K. Anders Ericsson, Alison Gopnik. If you aspire to be a Trend Following Masters, this collection of insightful interviews is an essential addition to your trading library.

Download or read book Attitudes and Decisions written by J Richard Eiser and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The concept of attitude has long been a central part of social psychological theories. It is important in other disciplines too, such as economics, business studies, politics and sociology. Originally published in 1988, the authors of this text show how attitudes and motives are crucial in human decision-making, and explore the relationship between them. They look closely at the real context of people’s attitudes and behaviour, pointing out that attitudes are both a social product and an intrinsic part of social action. The authors show that theories of judgment, attitudes, attribution and decision-making can make important contributions to social issues such as the employment of nuclear energy, the storage of nuclear waste, health behaviour and medical decision-making. They emphasize that social psychology is relevant to a wide variety of social issues, deriving from the theoretical and distinctive methods that social psychology has developed.

Download or read book Developing Mathematical Literacy through Adolescent Literature written by Paula Greathouse and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-01-15 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Giving students opportunities to read like mathematicians as they explore content has the potential to move their thinking and understandings in monumental ways. Each chapter presented in this volume provides readers with approaches and activities for pairing a young adult novel with specific mathematics concepts. Chapters include several instructional activities for before, during, and after reading as well as extension activities that move beyond the text as students continue to develop mathematical literacy.

Download or read book Machine Learning in Elixir written by Sean Moriarity and published by Pragmatic Bookshelf. This book was released on 2024-08-27 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stable Diffusion, ChatGPT, Whisper - these are just a few examples of incredible applications powered by developments in machine learning. Despite the ubiquity of machine learning applications running in production, there are only a few viable language choices for data science and machine learning tasks. Elixir's Nx project seeks to change that. With Nx, you can leverage the power of machine learning in your applications, using the battle-tested Erlang VM in a pragmatic language like Elixir. In this book, you'll learn how to leverage Elixir and the Nx ecosystem to solve real-world problems in computer vision, natural language processing, and more. The Elixir Nx project aims to make machine learning possible without the need to leave Elixir for solutions in other languages. And even if concepts like linear models and logistic regression are new to you, you'll be using them and much more to solve real-world problems in no time. Start with the basics of the Nx programming paradigm - how it differs from the Elixir programming style you're used to and how it enables you to write machine learning algorithms. Use your understanding of this paradigm to implement foundational machine learning algorithms from scratch. Go deeper and discover the power of deep learning with Axon. Unlock the power of Elixir and learn how to build and deploy machine learning models and pipelines anywhere. Learn how to analyze, visualize, and explain your data and models. Discover how to use machine learning to solve diverse problems from image recognition to content recommendation - all in your favorite programming language. What You Need: You'll need a computer with a working installation of Elixir v1.12 and Erlang/OTP 24. For some of the more compute intensive examples, you'll want to use EXLA, which currently only supports x86-64 platforms. While not explicitly required, some examples will demonstrate programs running on accelerators such as CUDA/ROCm enabled GPUs and Google TPUs. Most of these programs will still run fine on a regular CPU, just for much longer periods of time.

Download or read book Daily Fantasy Football 101 written by Allan Griffith and published by Allan Griffith. This book was released on 2021-06-03 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A must-read if you’re even thinking of playing daily fantasy football this season, especially if you’ve never played or haven’t been successful. Daily Fantasy Football 101 is the guide I wish I had when I started playing daily fantasy football (DFF). It was written specifically for beginners to explain the fundamentals of DFF. DFF 101 will teach you the basics much quicker than you could learn them on your own, so you can start winning sooner! And, it will help you improve if you’ve played before and struggled. Some of the topics covered are: · What is DFF? · Differences between daily and season-long · Overview of major DFF contest sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo): o Types of contests o Differences in scoring systems o Salary caps and salary ranges by position o How these affect player selection and lineup construction · Understanding and using points projections · Comparing players with different salaries · Vegas odds and game script · Correlation and stacking · Ownership · Money management · Setting up a weekly process Plus: · 12 mistakes I made when I started (and how you can avoid them) · 12 traits of successful DFF players · 8 ways to be contrarian · 12 links to websites with FREE helpful content

Download or read book Bayesian Analysis with Python written by Osvaldo Martin and published by Packt Publishing Ltd. This book was released on 2024-01-31 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn the fundamentals of Bayesian modeling using state-of-the-art Python libraries, such as PyMC, ArviZ, Bambi, and more, guided by an experienced Bayesian modeler who contributes to these libraries Key Features Conduct Bayesian data analysis with step-by-step guidance Gain insight into a modern, practical, and computational approach to Bayesian statistical modeling Enhance your learning with best practices through sample problems and practice exercises Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free PDF eBook. Book DescriptionThe third edition of Bayesian Analysis with Python serves as an introduction to the main concepts of applied Bayesian modeling using PyMC, a state-of-the-art probabilistic programming library, and other libraries that support and facilitate modeling like ArviZ, for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models; Bambi, for flexible and easy hierarchical linear modeling; PreliZ, for prior elicitation; PyMC-BART, for flexible non-parametric regression; and Kulprit, for variable selection. In this updated edition, a brief and conceptual introduction to probability theory enhances your learning journey by introducing new topics like Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), featuring updated examples. Refined explanations, informed by feedback and experience from previous editions, underscore the book's emphasis on Bayesian statistics. You will explore various models, including hierarchical models, generalized linear models for regression and classification, mixture models, Gaussian processes, and BART, using synthetic and real datasets. By the end of this book, you will possess a functional understanding of probabilistic modeling, enabling you to design and implement Bayesian models for your data science challenges. You'll be well-prepared to delve into more advanced material or specialized statistical modeling if the need arises.What you will learn Build probabilistic models using PyMC and Bambi Analyze and interpret probabilistic models with ArviZ Acquire the skills to sanity-check models and modify them if necessary Build better models with prior and posterior predictive checks Learn the advantages and caveats of hierarchical models Compare models and choose between alternative ones Interpret results and apply your knowledge to real-world problems Explore common models from a unified probabilistic perspective Apply the Bayesian framework's flexibility for probabilistic thinking Who this book is for If you are a student, data scientist, researcher, or developer looking to get started with Bayesian data analysis and probabilistic programming, this book is for you. The book is introductory, so no previous statistical knowledge is required, although some experience in using Python and scientific libraries like NumPy is expected.

Download or read book Theory of Media Literacy written by W. James Potter and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2004-04-29 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our society has become characterized by aggressive media. Information is constantly at our fingertips – whether it be through the books, newspapers, and magazines we read, the television we watch, the radio stations to which we listen, or the computers that connect us to the world in a matter of seconds. We can try to limit our media exposure, but it is impossible to avoid all media messages. As a result, we psychologically protect ourselves by automatically processing the media to which we are exposed. Theory of Media Literacy: A Cognitive Approach comprehensively explains how we absorb the flood of information in our media-saturated society and examines how we often construct faulty meanings from those messages. In this book, author W. James Potter enlightens readers on the tasks of information processing. By building on a foundation of principles about how humans think, Theory of Media Literacy examines decisions about filtering messages, standard schema to match meaning, and higher level skills to construct meaning. A central theme of Potter′s theory is the locus that governs the degree to which a person is media literate. The locus is enriched by developing skills as well as good knowledge structures on five topics: media effects, media content, media industries, real world parameters, and the self. Key Features Presents the first social scientific theory of the process of media literacy Explores a broad range of literature on media literacy written during the past two decades Focuses on how the human mind works, especially in this mass media-saturated society Theory of Media Literacy is an essential resource to a wide audience within the media discipline. The book provides empirical researchers with direction to test the theory and extend our understanding of how the media affect individuals and society. Practitioners will find it helpful in developing strategies to achieve goals and, at the same time, avoid high risks of negative effects. In addition, new scholars will find it to be an excellent introduction to various media literacy research.