Download or read book Thinking in Bets written by Annie Duke and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2019-05-07 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

Download or read book How to Decide written by Annie Duke and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.

Download or read book Little Bets written by Peter Sims and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2011-04-19 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “An enthusiastic, example-rich argument for innovating in a particular way—by deliberately experimenting and taking small exploratory steps in novel directions. Light, bright, and packed with tidy anecdotes” (The Wall Street Journal). What do Apple CEO Steve Jobs, comedian Chris Rock, prize-winning architect Frank Gehry, and the story developers at Pixar films all have in common? Bestselling author Peter Sims found that rather than start with a big idea or plan a whole project in advance, they make a methodical series of little bets, learning critical information from lots of little failures and from small but significant wins. Reporting on a fascinating range of research, from the psychology of creative blocks to the influential field of design thinking, Sims offers engaging and illuminating accounts of breakthrough innovators at work, and a whole new way of thinking about how to navigate uncertain situations and unleash our untapped creative powers.

Download or read book Quit written by Annie Duke and published by Noura Books. This book was released on 2022-06-13 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Dalam berbagai situasi, kita sering kali dihadapkan dengan pilihan sulit: bertahan, berubah arah, atau bahkan berhenti (quit). Nyatanya, walau banyak pertanda tak ada guna untuk tetap bertahan, berhenti identik dengan kata gagal, sehingga tak pernah jadi pilihan. Annie Duke menawarkan strategi berbasis sains yang dapat mengasah keterampilan untuk mengetahui kapan kita harus memilih berhenti dan bagaimana cara melakukannya. Saat Anda sedang menghadapi permasalahan bisnis, karier, atau bahkan hubungan pribadi, piawai dalam memilih mana hal yang harus dipertahankan atau tidak dapat membantu Anda untuk menentukan langkah terbaik berikutnya. Hidup ini singkat. Tak sepatutnya kita membuang waktu, energi, atau uang karena terus mempertahankan keputusan yang salah."

Download or read book Decide to Play Great Poker written by Annie Duke and published by Huntington Press Inc. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Poker is a game of table position, flop texture, players in a hand, personalities, and so much more. This book teaches you how to identify and analyze those variables, become a great strategist, and have confidence in any poker situation. Decide to Play Great Poker is written by Annie Duke, the world's most renowned woman poker player, with John Vorhaus, himself a winning poker player and prolific author.

Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.

Download or read book Al Pha s Bet written by Amy Krouse Rosenthal and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2011-05-12 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wonderful things are being invented every day in Al Pha's world-fire, the wheel, even shadows! His big chance to be part of history comes when the King announces that the twenty-six recently invented letters need to be put in order. Al makes a bet with himself that he's the man for the job. Through a series of funny events, he eventually finds the perfect order for the letters, and the king rewards him by naming his creation the "Alphabet." Sure to entertain and engage young readers, this book turns the ABC's inside out. Kids will laugh at the quirky illustrations and clever wordplay, while wondering where the alphabet really did get its order.

Download or read book 10 10 10 written by Suzy Welch and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2009-04-20 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, the world offers us more options than ever before, but it also forces us to juggle more priorities, to make more choices, and to make them faster. The result: a crisis of doing too much, or not enough, and making our decisions based on impulse, stress or guilt. In 10-10-10Suzy Welch offers an exciting, effective strategy that will help you make the right decision in any situation, at work or at home; with colleagues, family or friends. The rule is deceptively simple: when faced with a decision, consider what the consequences and outcomes of your various options would be in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years. But the results are extraordinary. Using the framework of 10-10-10will allow you to think through your decisions and to match them with the expectations and values you hold dearest. Most importantly, it allows you to chart a path in the direction you want, and to head confidently towards it with focus, balance, and joy.

Download or read book Against Facts written by Arianna Betti and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-10 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An argument that the major metaphysical theories of facts give us no good reason to accept facts in our catalog of the world. In this book Arianna Betti argues that we have no good reason to accept facts in our catalog of the world, at least as they are described by the two major metaphysical theories of facts. She claims that neither of these theories is tenable—neither the theory according to which facts are special structured building blocks of reality nor the theory according to which facts are whatever is named by certain expressions of the form “the fact that such and such.” There is reality, and there are entities in reality that we are able to name, but, Betti contends, among these entities there are no facts. Drawing on metaphysics, the philosophy of language, and linguistics, Betti examines the main arguments in favor of and against facts of the two major sorts, which she distinguishes as compositional and propositional, giving special attention to methodological presuppositions. She criticizes compositional facts (facts as special structured building blocks of reality) and the central argument for them, Armstrong's truthmaker argument. She then criticizes propositional facts (facts as whatever is named in “the fact that” statements) and what she calls the argument from nominal reference, which draws on Quine's criterion of ontological commitment. Betti argues that metaphysicians should stop worrying about facts, and philosophers in general should stop arguing for or against entities on the basis of how we use language.

Download or read book Trading Bases written by Joe Peta and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2014-03-04 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An ex–Wall Street trader improved on Moneyball’s famed sabermetrics and beat the Vegas odds with his own betting methods. Here is the story of how Joe Peta turned fantasy baseball into a dream come true. Joe Peta turned his back on his Wall Street trading career to pursue an ingenious—and incredibly risky—dream. He would apply his risk-analysis skills to Major League Baseball, and treat the sport like the S&P 500. In Trading Bases, Peta takes us on his journey from the ballpark in San Francisco to the trading floors and baseball bars of New York and the sportsbooks of Las Vegas, telling the story of how he created a baseball “hedge fund” with an astounding 41 percent return in his first year. And he explains the unique methods he developed. Along the way, Peta provides insight into the Wall Street crisis he managed to escape: the fragility of the midnineties investment model; the disgraced former CEO of Lehman Brothers, who recruited Peta; and the high-adrenaline atmosphere where million-dollar sports-betting pools were common.

Download or read book Heads Up Tournament Poker Hand By Hand written by Annie Duke, Vanessa Rousso & Josh Doody and published by Cardoza Publishing. This book was released on with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: You’ll learn how two of the best heads-up tournament players think through every decision in more than 600 hands as they battle their way to the final round in the prestigious NBC Heads-Up Championship. You’ll see their cards and hear their thoughts through twelve matches as they devise masterful strategies to defeat world-class opponents. Annie Duke and Vanessa Rousso give you a powerful mix of the practice, theory, and strategies for heads-up tournaments—where you must risk chips on every hand you’re dealt—and show you what they did to beat the best players in the world. You’ll see what works and what doesn’t as amazing bluffs and poorly executed tactics are deconstructed. You’ll learn how to design a game plan for each opponent, how to adjust your plan as the match progresses, how to play against pros and amateurs alike, and how to get the best of it against superior opponents. Their detailed analysis of when to change your strategy due to fluctuating chip counts, the flow of the match, and dynamic maneuvers make this book the bible of heads-up play.

Download or read book The Perfect Bet written by Adam Kucharski and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2016-02-23 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "An elegant and amusing account" of how gambling has been reshaped by the application of science and revealed the truth behind a lucky bet (Wall Street Journal). For the past 500 years, gamblers-led by mathematicians and scientists-have been trying to figure out how to pull the rug out from under Lady Luck. In The Perfect Bet, mathematician and award-winning writer Adam Kucharski tells the astonishing story of how the experts have succeeded, revolutionizing mathematics and science in the process. The house can seem unbeatable. Kucharski shows us just why it isn't. Even better, he demonstrates how the search for the perfect bet has been crucial for the scientific pursuit of a better world.

Download or read book Sports Betting to Win written by Steve Ward and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2011-03-03 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thinking, and betting, like the pros "Most people in sports betting are looking at things the wrong way." - Peter Webb, founder of Bet Angel "Some people only ever seem to want to hit the sexy six, and not take the singles" - Compton Hellyer, founder of Sporting Index This is a book that teaches you how to bet on sports with the same discipline and mindset as the professionals. Lots of books and websites give advice on profitable strategies - and tipsters and systems proliferate. But this is the only guide that helps you make your trades and bank your wins for the long term, avoiding the perennial dangers of overconfidence, irrationality and emotion. However successful your selections, you are never safe from crippling losses until you know how to bet with the clear head and calm approach of the masters. The simple fact is that most people betting on sports lose over the long term. Performance errors currently hamper the majority of bettors: they lose their bets because they first lose their heads.The only answer is to think differently. With chapters ranging across motivation, performance analysis, the betting process and going pro, this book is the definitive guide to achieving this: - Use dozens of exercises to sharpen your thinking and refine your betting processes. - Share in the exclusive insights of professional sports bettors, who reveal for the first time how they have built successful gambling careers. - Benefit in every chapter from one-to-one training from the author, a professional sports and trading performance coach. Sports Betting to Win is your own personal course for establishing a firm psychological foundation for long-term betting success.

Download or read book Soccermatics written by David Sumpter and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2016-05-05 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Football looked at in a very different way' Pat Nevin, former Chelsea and Everton star and football media analyst Football – the most mathematical of sports. From shot statistics and league tables to the geometry of passing and managerial strategy, the modern game is filled with numbers, patterns and shapes. How do we make sense of them? The answer lies in the mathematical models applied in biology, physics and economics. Soccermatics brings football and mathematics together in a mind-bending synthesis, using numbers to help reveal the inner workings of the beautiful game. This new and expanded edition analyses the current big-name players and teams using mathematics, and meets the professionals working inside football who use numbers and statistics to boost performance. Welcome to the world of mathematical modelling, expressed brilliantly by David Sumpter through the prism of football. No matter who you follow – from your local non-league side to the big boys of the Premiership, La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A or the MLS – you'll be amazed at what mathematics has to teach us about the world's favourite sport.

Download or read book Beautiful Disaster Signed Limited Edition written by Jamie McGuire and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2012-11-27 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abby Abernathy is re-inventing herself as the good girl as she begins her freshman year at college, which is why she must resist lean, cut, and tattooed Travis Maddox, a classic bad boy.

Download or read book Annie Duke written by Annie Duke and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The top-ranked female poker player in the world reveals an insider's view of the World Series of Poker. Annie Lederer grew up in a card-playing family, whose dual mantra was "Education is everything" and "win at all costs." At 26, when the Columbia alum suddenly developed a panic disorder just before finishing her doctorate, she freaked and fled to Montana. Months later, on a lark, she began to hone her poker skills and quickly started to win. Soon, she and her new husband upped the ante and moved to Las Vegas, and the rest is history. Highlighting strategic tips and keen analysis that will appeal to both the skilled player and the reader newly intrigued, Annie Duke shares a unique view of a game that's fast evolved into a subculture.--From publisher description.

Download or read book Betting on Ideas written by Reuven Brenner and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1989-07-10 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, Reuven Brenner argues that people bet on new ideas and are more willing to take risks when they have been outdone by their fellows on local, national, or international scales. Such bets mean that people deviate from the beaten path and either gamble, commit crimes, or come up with new ideas in art, business, or politics, and ideas concerning war and peace in particular. By using evidence on gambling, crime, and creativity now and during the Industrial Revolution, by examining innovations in English and French inheritance laws and the emergence of welfare legislation, and by looking at what has happened before and after wars, Brenner reaches the conclusion that hope and fear, envy and vanity, sentiments provoked when being leapfrogged, make humans race.