Download or read book The Volatility of Long Term Bond Returns written by Daniela Osterrieder and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a model that can match two stylized facts of the term-structure. The first stylized fact is the predictability of excess returns on long-term bonds. Modeling this requires sufficient volatility and persistence in the price of risk. The second stylized fact is that long-term yields are dominated by a level factor, which requires persistence in the spot interest rate. We find that a fractionally integrated process for the short rate plus a fractionally integrated specification for the price of risk leads to an analytically tractable almost affine term structure model that can explain the stylized facts. In a decomposition of long-term bond returns we find that the expectations component from the level factor is more volatile than the returns themselves. It therefore takes a volatile risk premium that is negatively correlated with innovations in the level factor to explain the volatility of long-term bond returns. The model also implies that excess bond returns do not exhibit mean reversion, consistent with the empirical evidence.

Download or read book The Volatility of Long term Bond Returns written by Daniela Osterrieder and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Economics of Recent Bond Yield Volatility written by C. E. V. Borio and published by Bank for International Settlements. This book was released on 1996 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Bond Risk Bond Return Volatility and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Luis M. Viceira and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on long-term bonds and short-term bonds forecasts positively future excess returns on bonds at varying horizons, and that the short-term nominal interest rate forecasts positively stock return volatility and exchange rate volatility. This paper presents evidence that movements in both the short-term nominal interest rate and the yield spread are positively related to changes in subsequent realized bond risk and bond return volatility. The yield spread appears to proxy for business conditions, while the short rate appears to proxy for inflation and economic uncertainty. A decomposition of bond betas into a real cash flow risk component, and a discount rate risk component shows that yield spreads have offsetting effects in each component. A widening yield spread is correlated with reduced cash-flow (or inflationary) risk for bonds, but it is also correlated with larger discount rate risk for bonds. The short rate forecasts only the discount rate component of bond beta.

Download or read book Triumph of the Optimists written by Elroy Dimson and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2002-02-03 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However, as Don Marquis observed, an optimist is someone who never had much experience. The authors of this book extend our experience across regions and across time. They present a comprehensive and consistent analysis of investment returns for equities, bonds, bills, currencies and inflation, spanning sixteen countries, from the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first. This is achieved in a clear and simple way, with over 130 color diagrams that make comparison easy. Crucially, the authors analyze total returns, including reinvested income. They show that some historical indexes overstate long-term performance because they are contaminated by survivorship bias and that long-term stock returns are in most countries seriously overestimated, due to a focus on periods that with hindsight are known to have been successful. The book also provides the first comprehensive evidence on the long-term equity risk premium--the reward for bearing the risk of common stocks. The authors reveal whether the United States and United Kingdom have had unusually high stock market returns compared to other countries. The book covers the U.S., the U.K., Japan, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, and South Africa. Triumph of the Optimists is required reading for investment professionals, financial economists, and investors. It will be the definitive reference in the field and consulted for years to come.

Download or read book Inside the Yield Book written by Martin L. Leibowitz and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-04-16 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A completely updated edition of the guide to modern bond analysis First published in 1972, Inside the Yield Book revolutionized the fixed-income industry and forever altered the way investors looked at bonds. Over forty years later, it remains a standard primer and reference among market professionals. Generations of practitioners, investors, and students have relied on its lucid explanations, and readers needing to delve more deeply have found its explication of key mathematical relationships to be unmatched in clarity and ease of application. This edition updates the widely respected classic with new material from Martin L. Leibowitz. Along the way, it skillfully explains and makes sense of essential mathematical relationships that are basic to an understanding of bonds, annuities, and loans—in fact, any securities or investments that involve compound interest and the determination of present value for future cash flows. The book also includes a new foreword. Contains information that is more instructive, important, and useful than ever for mastering the crucial concepts of time, value, and return Combines the clear fixed-income insights found in the original edition with completely new knowledge to help you navigate today's dynamic market Includes over one hundred pages of new material on the role of bonds within the total portfolio In an era of calculators and computers, some of the important underlying principles covered here are not always grasped thoroughly by market participants. Investors, traders, and analysts who want to sharpen their ability to recall and apply these fundamentals will find Inside the Yield Book the perfect resource.

Download or read book Stock and Bond Returns with Moody Investors written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We present a tractable, linear model for the simultaneous pricing of stock and bond returns that incorporates stochastic risk aversion. In this model, analytic solutions for endogenous stock and bond prices and returns are readily calculated. After estimating the parameters of the model by the general method of moments, we investigate a series of classic puzzles of the empirical asset pricing literature. In particular, our model is shown to jointly accommodate the mean and volatility of equity and long term bond risk premia as well as salient features of the nominal short rate, the dividend yield, and the term spread. Also, the model matches the evidence for predictability of excess stock and bond returns. However, the stock-bond return correlation implied by the model is somewhat higher than in the data"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Download or read book Stock Market Uncertainty and the Relation Between Stock and Bond Returns written by Christopher T. Stivers and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book With Interest written by Joseph E. Murphy and published by Irwin Professional Publishing. This book was released on 1987 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Volatility and Performance Analysis of Two Past Real Estate Markets written by Nino Dante Pedrelli and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Bond Investing For Dummies written by Russell Wild and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-08-30 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everything on bonds, bond funds, and more! Updated for the new economy Whether you're looking for income, diversification, or protection from stock market volatility, bonds can play an important role in any portfolio. Newly updated, Bond Investing For Dummies covers the essentials of getting started and ways to select and purchase bonds for your needs. You'll get up to speed on the different bond varieties and see how to get the best prices when you sell. We’ll help you wrap your mind around bond returns and risk and recognize the major factors that influence bond performance. With easily understandable explanations and examples, you can understand bonds from every angle—yield, credit risk, callability, fund selection, bond broker-dealers, web portals, and beyond. This is the expert information and advice you need to invest in bonds in today’s environment. Learn what bonds are and how you can use them to strengthen and protect your portfolio Understand how interest rates and other shifting sands affect bond investing Minimize your risk and maximize your returns with proven advice from an expert financial advisor Use online investing and apps to buy bonds and bond funds with confidence and ease Novice and experienced investors alike will love this quick-and-easy approach to bond investing.

Download or read book The Little Book of Market Myths written by Kenneth L. Fisher and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-01-29 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exposes the truth about common investing myths and misconceptions and shows you how the truth shall set you free—to reap greater long-term and short-term gains Everybody knows that a strong dollar equals a strong economy, bonds are safer than stocks, gold is a safe investment and that high PEs signal high risk...right? While such "common-sense" rules of thumb may work for a time as investment strategies, as New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestselling author, Ken Fisher, vividly demonstrates in this wise, informative, wholly entertaining new book, they'll always let you down in the long run. Ken exposes some of the most common—and deadly—myths investors swear by, and he demonstrates why the rules-of-thumb approach to investing may be robbing you of the kinds returns you hope for. Dubbed by Investment Advisor magazine one of the 30 most influential individuals of the last three decades, Fisher is Chairman, and CEO of a global money management firm with over $32 billion under management Fisher's Forbes column, "Portfolio Strategy," has been an extremely popular fixture in Forbes for more than a quarter century thanks to his many high-profile calls Brings together the best "bunks" by Wall Street's Master Debunker in a fun, easy-to-digest, bite-size format More than just a list of myths, Fisher meticulously explains of why each commonly held belief or strategy is dead wrong and how damaging it can be to your financial health Armed with this book, investors can immediately identify major errors they may be committing and adjust their strategies for greater investing success

Download or read book Being Realistic About Bond Returns written by Joachim Klement and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Long-term expected returns for bond investments are an important component of the actuarial assumptions of pension funds around the world. Similarly, banks and investors around the world need realistic long-term return assumptions to decide on the optimal share of bonds in a multi-asset portfolio. Given the current low interest rates in most developed countries, we calculate expected returns for government bonds in four regions and compare these to long-term historical returns. It seems clear that over the next decade government bond returns will be significantly lower than the historical average. In light of these results, it seems astonishing to us that many banks, pension funds and investors still seem to use the same long-term bond return expectations as before the current period of monetary easing. According to our calculations, this practice implicitly assumes that - at least for Switzerland the UK and the US - long-term government bond yields are based on unrealistic scenarios. Therefore, this practice seems clearly flawed and may have grave implications for the portfolios of those investors.

Download or read book Stock and Bond Returns with Moody Investors written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a tractable, linear model for the simultaneous pricing of stock and bond returns that incorporates stochastic risk aversion. In this model, analytic solutions for endogenous stock and bond prices and returns are readily calculated. After estimating the parameters of the model by GMM, we investigate a series of classic puzzles of the empirical asset pricing literature. In particular, our model is shown to jointly accommodate the mean and volatility of equity and long term bond risk premia as well as salient features of the nominal short rate, the dividend yield, and the term spread. Also, the model matches the evidence for predictability of excess stock and bond returns. However, the stock-bond return correlation implied by the model is somewhat higher than in the data.

Download or read book Investing in Bonds For Dummies written by Russell Wild and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2023-08-29 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Improve the strength of your portfolio with this straightforward guide to bond investing Investing in Bonds For Dummies introduces you to the basics you need to know to get started with bond investing. You’ll find details on understanding bond returns and risks, and recognizing the major factors that influence bond performance. Unlike some investing vehicles, bonds typically pay interest on a regular schedule, so you can use them to provide an income stream while you protect your capital. This easy-to-understand guide will show you how to incorporate bonds into a diversified portfolio and a solid retirement plan. Learn the ins and outs of buying and selling bonds and bond funds Understand the risks and potential rewards in corporate bonds, government bonds, and beyond Diversify your portfolio by using bonds to balance stocks and other investments Gain the fundamental information you need to make smart bond investment choices This Dummies investing guide is great for investors looking for a resource to help them understand, evaluate, and incorporate bonds into their current investment portfolios.

Download or read book Stocks Bonds Bills and Inflation written by Roger G. Ibbotson and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.