Download or read book Econometric Model Selection written by Antonio Aznar Grasa and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book proposes a new methodology for the selection of one (model) from among a set of alternative econometric models. Let us recall that a model is an abstract representation of reality which brings out what is relevant to a particular economic issue. An econometric model is also an analytical characterization of the joint probability distribution of some random variables of interest, which yields some information on how the actual economy works. This information will be useful only if it is accurate and precise; that is, the information must be far from ambiguous and close to what we observe in the real world Thus, model selection should be performed on the basis of statistics which summarize the degree of accuracy and precision of each model. A model is accurate if it predicts right; it is precise if it produces tight confidence intervals. A first general approach to model selection includes those procedures based on both characteristics, precision and accuracy. A particularly interesting example of this approach is that of Hildebrand, Laing and Rosenthal (1980). See also Hendry and Richard (1982). A second general approach includes those procedures that use only one of the two dimensions to discriminate among models. In general, most of the tests we are going to examine correspond to this category.
Download or read book Econometric Analysis of Model Selection and Model Testing written by M. Ishaq Bhatti and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years econometricians have examined the problems of diagnostic testing, specification testing, semiparametric estimation and model selection. In addition researchers have considered whether to use model testing and model selection procedures to decide the models that best fit a particular dataset. This book explores both issues with application to various regression models, including the arbitrage pricing theory models. It is ideal as a reference for statistical sciences postgraduate students, academic researchers and policy makers in understanding the current status of model building and testing techniques.
Download or read book The Theory of Econometric Model Selection written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Empirical Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-07-04 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A synthesis of the authors' groundbreaking econometric research on automatic model selection, which uses powerful computational algorithms and theory evaluation. Economic models of empirical phenomena are developed for a variety of reasons, the most obvious of which is the numerical characterization of available evidence, in a suitably parsimonious form. Another is to test a theory, or evaluate it against the evidence; still another is to forecast future outcomes. Building such models involves a multitude of decisions, and the large number of features that need to be taken into account can overwhelm the researcher. Automatic model selection, which draws on recent advances in computation and search algorithms, can create, and then empirically investigate, a vastly wider range of possibilities than even the greatest expert. In this book, leading econometricians David Hendry and Jurgen Doornik report on their several decades of innovative research on automatic model selection. After introducing the principles of empirical model discovery and the role of model selection, Hendry and Doornik outline the stages of developing a viable model of a complicated evolving process. They discuss the discovery stages in detail, considering both the theory of model selection and the performance of several algorithms. They describe extensions to tackling outliers and multiple breaks, leading to the general case of more candidate variables than observations. Finally, they briefly consider selecting models specifically for forecasting.
Download or read book Econometric Modeling written by David F. Hendry and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-06-21 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric Modeling provides a new and stimulating introduction to econometrics, focusing on modeling. The key issue confronting empirical economics is to establish sustainable relationships that are both supported by data and interpretable from economic theory. The unified likelihood-based approach of this book gives students the required statistical foundations of estimation and inference, and leads to a thorough understanding of econometric techniques. David Hendry and Bent Nielsen introduce modeling for a range of situations, including binary data sets, multiple regression, and cointegrated systems. In each setting, a statistical model is constructed to explain the observed variation in the data, with estimation and inference based on the likelihood function. Substantive issues are always addressed, showing how both statistical and economic assumptions can be tested and empirical results interpreted. Important empirical problems such as structural breaks, forecasting, and model selection are covered, and Monte Carlo simulation is explained and applied. Econometric Modeling is a self-contained introduction for advanced undergraduate or graduate students. Throughout, data illustrate and motivate the approach, and are available for computer-based teaching. Technical issues from probability theory and statistical theory are introduced only as needed. Nevertheless, the approach is rigorous, emphasizing the coherent formulation, estimation, and evaluation of econometric models relevant for empirical research.
Download or read book Statistics and Econometric Models Volume 2 Testing Confidence Regions Model Selection and Asymptotic Theory written by Christian Gourieroux and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1995-10-26 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two-volume work aims to present as completely as possible the methods of statistical inference with special reference to their economic applications. The reader will find a description not only of the classical concepts and results of mathematical statistics, but also of concepts and methods recently developed for the specific needs of econometrics. The authors have sought to avoid an overly technical presentation and go to some lengths to encourage an intuitive understanding of the results by providing numerous examples throughout. The breadth of approaches and the extensive coverage of the two volumes provide for a thorough and entirely self-contained course in modern econometrics. Volume 1 provides an introduction to general concepts and methods in statistics and econometrics, and goes on to cover estimation and prediction. Volume 2 focuses on testing, confidence regions, model selection, and asymptotic theory.
Download or read book General to specific Modelling written by Julia Campos and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper discusses the econometric methodology of general-to-specific modeling, in which the modeler simplifies an initially general model that adequately characterizes the empirical evidence within his or her theoretical framework. Central aspects of this approach include the theory of reduction, dynamic specification, model selection procedures, model selection criteria, model comparison, encompassing, computer automation, and empirical implementation. This paper thus reviews the theory of reduction, summarizes the approach of general-to-specific modeling, and discusses the econometrics of model selection, noting that general-to-specific modeling is the practical embodiment of reduction. This paper then summarizes fifty-seven articles key to the development of general-to-specific modeling"--Federal Reserve Board web site.
Download or read book Model Occurrence and Model Selection in Panel Data Sets written by Dale J. Poirier and published by University of Toronto, Institute for Policy Analysis. This book was released on 1978 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Econometrics Model Selection written by Wei Long and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation contains two essays which examine the theory of model selection in econometrics and its applications. In the first essay, we utilize a model average approach to estimate a mixture copula. We average over the estimates of each individual copula and their composite and select their associated weights by minimizing a leave-one-group-out cross-validation criterion. We are able to prove that our model average estimator is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the infeasible lowest possible squared estimation losses. Simulation results prove that our model average estimators for mixture copula exhibit smaller estimation loss than some benchmark methods. We empirically examine the dependence structures among the stock markets in U.S., United Kingdom, Japan and Hong Kong, and we show that our model average estimators give more reasonable estimations for the dependence structures among these markets. In the second essay, we implement a panel data approach to estimate the treatment effect of the justice reform in Virginia in 1995. The fundamental idea behind this method is to exploit the dependence among cross-sectional units to construct the counterfactual analysis. This panel data method uses the outcomes of the control units to simulate the path of the treated unit during the pre-treatment period and then predict the counterfactual path of the treated unit during the post-treatment period. In order to find the control units which simulate the pre-treatment path of the treated unit best, model selection criterion such as Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICC) are used. We confirm that both violent and property crime rates declined in Virginia after the justice reform. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/155406
Download or read book Evaluation of Econometric Models written by Jan Kmenta and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evaluation of Econometric Models presents approaches to assessing and enhancing the progress of applied economic research. This book discusses the problems and issues in evaluating econometric models, use of exploratory methods in economic analysis, and model construction and evaluation when theoretical knowledge is scarce. The data analysis by partial least squares, prediction analysis of economic models, and aggregation and disaggregation of nonlinear equations are also elaborated. This text likewise covers the comparison of econometric models by optimal control techniques, role of time series analysis in econometric model evaluation, and hypothesis testing in spectral regression. Other topics include the relevance of laboratory experiments to testing resource allocation theory and token economy and animal models for the experimental analysis of economic behavior. This publication is intended for students and researchers interested in evaluating econometric models.
Download or read book Contemporary Issues in Economics and Econometrics written by Stan Hurn and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'All of the papers share a high level of practical relevance and usefulness that is sometimes missing in economic research. Indeed, the reader will find that very issue taken up as the theme of Paul Klemperer's delightful essay, and all five papers under the heading of "econometric theory" will be extremely useful for most applied researchers. I hope that the reader will also share my feeling of gratitude toward Ralf Becker and Stan Hurn for putting together this outstanding permanent record of some of the conference's most important contributions.' - From the foreword by James D. Hamilton, University of California, San Diego, US This authoritative collection of papers covers a broad spectrum of topics in theoretical and applied economics and econometrics. The tone of the book is set by Paul Klemperer's contribution on using and abusing economic theory, in which academics are encouraged to widen the scope of their analyses beyond the confines of elegant models which sometimes lack 'real-world' detail. As a result, many of the chapters in this volume share a high degree of practical relevance.
Download or read book Foundations of Econometrics written by Albert Madansky and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-07-22 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advanced Textbooks in Economics, Volume 7: Foundations of Econometrics focuses on the principles, processes, methodologies, and approaches involved in the study of econometrics. The publication examines matrix theory and multivariate statistical analysis. Discussions focus on the maximum likelihood estimation of multivariate normal distribution parameters, point estimation theory, multivariate normal distribution, multivariate probability distributions, Euclidean spaces and linear transformations, orthogonal transformations and symmetric matrices, and determinants. The manuscript then ponders on linear expected value models and simultaneous equation estimation. Topics include random exogenous variables, maximum likelihood estimation of a single equation, identification of a single equation, linear stochastic difference equations, and errors-in-variables models. The book takes a look at a prolegomenon to econometric model building, tests of hypotheses in econometric models, multivariate statistical analysis, and simultaneous equation estimation. Concerns include maximum likelihood estimation of a single equation, tests of linear hypotheses, testing for independence, and causality in economic models. The publication is a valuable source of data for economists and researchers interested in the foundations of econometrics.
Download or read book The Formation of Econometrics written by Duo Qin and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Duo Qin has produced a study of a crucial period in the history of econometrics. She analyses the development of the theory and methodology between 1930 and 1960, arguing in particular that the "probability revolution" of the 1940s was incomplete, and resulted in later problems.
Download or read book Developing Econometrics written by Hengqing Tong and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-11-28 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Theories and Methods with Applications to Economics and Business highlights recent advances in statistical theory and methods that benefit econometric practice. It deals with exploratory data analysis, a prerequisite to statistical modelling and part of data mining. It provides recently developed computational tools useful for data mining, analysing the reasons to do data mining and the best techniques to use in a given situation. Provides a detailed description of computer algorithms. Provides recently developed computational tools useful for data mining Highlights recent advances in statistical theory and methods that benefit econometric practice. Features examples with real life data. Accompanying software featuring DASC (Data Analysis and Statistical Computing). Essential reading for practitioners in any area of econometrics; business analysts involved in economics and management; and Graduate students and researchers in economics and statistics.
Download or read book Statistics and Econometric Models written by Christian Gourieroux and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1995-10-26 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two volume work aims to present as completely as possible the methods of statistical inference with special reference to their economic applications. Volume II focuses on testing, confidence regions, model selection, and asymptotic theory
Download or read book A History of Econometrics written by Duo Qin and published by . This book was released on 2013-07-25 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written from the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission econometric perspective, this book provides an account of the advances in the field of econometrics since the 1970s.
Download or read book Complete and Incomplete Econometric Models written by John Geweke and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-08 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric models are widely used in the creation and evaluation of economic policy in the public and private sectors. But these models are useful only if they adequately account for the phenomena in question, and they can be quite misleading if they do not. In response, econometricians have developed tests and other checks for model adequacy. All of these methods, however, take as given the specification of the model to be tested. In this book, John Geweke addresses the critical earlier stage of model development, the point at which potential models are inherently incomplete. Summarizing and extending recent advances in Bayesian econometrics, Geweke shows how simple modern simulation methods can complement the creative process of model formulation. These methods, which are accessible to economics PhD students as well as to practicing applied econometricians, streamline the processes of model development and specification checking. Complete with illustrations from a wide variety of applications, this is an important contribution to econometrics that will interest economists and PhD students alike.
